Oregonrain's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/136560/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/145370-the-fourth-branch-of-the-u-s-government-goldman-sachs?source=feed#comment-566418 566418 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 23:03:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139476-design-a-country-rescue-package-here-comment-competition?source=feed#comment-517280 517280
At the same time, it is essential that there be plans in place to pull back the levers of the throttles on the speed printer going on at the Fed. It will take higher taxes and cutting social security and other retirement plans and of course the medical programs. That is the only place where you can pick up the kind of money you need (hundreds of billions) in short order. Everything else in the Federal Budget (other than the pentagon which we will need and interest on the debt) is not worth the effort. It just simply does not get you the savings you need fast enough.

The people who argue that it can all be done with either tax increases or spending cuts simply do not understand the issues. As people say, "for every complex problem there is an easy and simple solution." It just happens to be wrong.

To the extent money is spent it has to be directed at high pay back areas. Education, R&D and infra-structure. As Jeremy Grantham says..real wealth is measured in the will of a nations people, the knowledge they hold and their resourcefulness. it also helps to have good land and water. We are still a rich nation.

On the Calif situation....I think they will need to make some major cuts to their budget. I think the number I heard is $23.0 billion short fall. Maybe some small "bridge loan" makes sense given how large a part of the national and international system it is. But, the people of that State have spoken. "No New Taxes." Ok...good on them. Time to cut the services...no more messing around. Once the pain becomes unbearable and it will.... it might be time to consider the loan. Until then....No.

The problem in the country has been that the demigods have told the public you can have it all. Huge tax cuts...all the services and wars you want..no problem.

This can be solved. It just takes reality...not slogans and the scapegoats like 'welfare." The idea you can cut taxes to ZERO as one commentator expresses and "solve" the problem shows you how far this kind of lack of thinking has gone.

I will admit that letting it all fail is an option. Let the real crisis begin. It is an intellectually defensible position. I just do not think the nation or the world for that matter would be a nice place for a long time if we go there. ]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 21:50:09 -0400
At the same time, it is essential that there be plans in place to pull back the levers of the throttles on the speed printer going on at the Fed. It will take higher taxes and cutting social security and other retirement plans and of course the medical programs. That is the only place where you can pick up the kind of money you need (hundreds of billions) in short order. Everything else in the Federal Budget (other than the pentagon which we will need and interest on the debt) is not worth the effort. It just simply does not get you the savings you need fast enough.

The people who argue that it can all be done with either tax increases or spending cuts simply do not understand the issues. As people say, "for every complex problem there is an easy and simple solution." It just happens to be wrong.

To the extent money is spent it has to be directed at high pay back areas. Education, R&D and infra-structure. As Jeremy Grantham says..real wealth is measured in the will of a nations people, the knowledge they hold and their resourcefulness. it also helps to have good land and water. We are still a rich nation.

On the Calif situation....I think they will need to make some major cuts to their budget. I think the number I heard is $23.0 billion short fall. Maybe some small "bridge loan" makes sense given how large a part of the national and international system it is. But, the people of that State have spoken. "No New Taxes." Ok...good on them. Time to cut the services...no more messing around. Once the pain becomes unbearable and it will.... it might be time to consider the loan. Until then....No.

The problem in the country has been that the demigods have told the public you can have it all. Huge tax cuts...all the services and wars you want..no problem.

This can be solved. It just takes reality...not slogans and the scapegoats like 'welfare." The idea you can cut taxes to ZERO as one commentator expresses and "solve" the problem shows you how far this kind of lack of thinking has gone.

I will admit that letting it all fail is an option. Let the real crisis begin. It is an intellectually defensible position. I just do not think the nation or the world for that matter would be a nice place for a long time if we go there. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137882-warnings-from-the-president-this-is-a-bear-market-rally?source=feed#comment-506696 506696
You know who.....]]> Sat, 16 May 2009 18:56:45 -0400
You know who.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137881-connecticut-ag-time-to-shatter-old-boys-club-of-ratings-agencies?source=feed#comment-506412 506412
"Fight Club was the beginning, now it's moved out of the basement, it's called Project Mayhem." ]]> Sat, 16 May 2009 11:09:18 -0400
"Fight Club was the beginning, now it's moved out of the basement, it's called Project Mayhem." ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136114-jeremy-grantham-collapse-is-over-but-monumental-challenges-remain?source=feed#comment-493710 493710 Thu, 07 May 2009 10:26:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135785-goldman-sachs-why-aren-t-trading-profits-raising-any-red-flags?source=feed#comment-493142 493142
My understanding is that the goal is to push equity prices up in order (at least in part) to allow the financial service companies (especially GS) to do their deleveraging at inflated sale prices. Who would have thunk that??? Thanks. ]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 22:37:17 -0400
My understanding is that the goal is to push equity prices up in order (at least in part) to allow the financial service companies (especially GS) to do their deleveraging at inflated sale prices. Who would have thunk that??? Thanks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135101-asia-is-decoupling?source=feed#comment-489657 489657 Mon, 04 May 2009 23:44:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135052-chrysler-lenders-non-tarp-come-out-with-guns-blazing?source=feed#comment-489632 489632
If I were the judge I would say to the "non-Tarp lenders"...so what is your plan? Are you going to grab the collateral (as they probably have a right to do) and then what? Are you just going to have a fire sale?

They will end up owning a lot of well...I think crap would be the technical term. Or is this just a stickup play? You know hold out long enough to either destroy any chance of the company moving ahead for a few more cents on the dollar? (shakes head YES)

I know I know...that is their job. But really, who here thinks the secured creditors really want to execute on the collateral and sell it in a fire sale let alone try to run this POS.

So my prediction is that there will be push back by the judge as there should be...these guys will get some more money...as maybe they should...and the whole thing moves ahead. Then it crashes in the next year or so.

]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 23:08:09 -0400
If I were the judge I would say to the "non-Tarp lenders"...so what is your plan? Are you going to grab the collateral (as they probably have a right to do) and then what? Are you just going to have a fire sale?

They will end up owning a lot of well...I think crap would be the technical term. Or is this just a stickup play? You know hold out long enough to either destroy any chance of the company moving ahead for a few more cents on the dollar? (shakes head YES)

I know I know...that is their job. But really, who here thinks the secured creditors really want to execute on the collateral and sell it in a fire sale let alone try to run this POS.

So my prediction is that there will be push back by the judge as there should be...these guys will get some more money...as maybe they should...and the whole thing moves ahead. Then it crashes in the next year or so.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23246?source=feed#comment-486724 486724
"Can export-led growth countries increase consumption, or are we going to see large imbalances in the global economy return when the recovery will be in full swing?"

I do not follow him that closely but it seems to me that this is one of the first times I have seen him concede that there might be a recovery.

He then appears to state the the recovery could take two paths. The first being a return to what existed prior to the crisis. Namely, China and others having large trade and payment surpluses and funding large US deficits. Certainly that seems like a reasonable guess.

Then he asks...is there another way? And of course there is. That being to see China and others stimulate domestic consumption to correct what he sees as the imbalances which helped cause all this.

Anyone who does not concede that the imbalances in the terms of trade and payments was not one of the factors that brought us to this point simply has their head in the sand or has not really thought this out.

The ever increasing demand for US debt instruments (mortgage back securities, T-bills) from China and around the world was one of the factors that drove "demand" for our paper. They had tons of dollars coming in which they needed to put to work.

Wall Street sales people aka investment bankers never want to be without a "product" for long when there are buyers about. They were more than happy to cook some up. As the demand continued to increase the quality went down.

Roubini is simply asking if it might be better to try to stimulate domestic consumption in emerging markets so as to not do this cycle again. Can anyone seriously take issue with that? I guess you can if you thought "Great Bubble 2000's I" was great and look forward to "Great Bubble 2000's II)




]]> Sat, 02 May 2009 14:04:03 -0400
"Can export-led growth countries increase consumption, or are we going to see large imbalances in the global economy return when the recovery will be in full swing?"

I do not follow him that closely but it seems to me that this is one of the first times I have seen him concede that there might be a recovery.

He then appears to state the the recovery could take two paths. The first being a return to what existed prior to the crisis. Namely, China and others having large trade and payment surpluses and funding large US deficits. Certainly that seems like a reasonable guess.

Then he asks...is there another way? And of course there is. That being to see China and others stimulate domestic consumption to correct what he sees as the imbalances which helped cause all this.

Anyone who does not concede that the imbalances in the terms of trade and payments was not one of the factors that brought us to this point simply has their head in the sand or has not really thought this out.

The ever increasing demand for US debt instruments (mortgage back securities, T-bills) from China and around the world was one of the factors that drove "demand" for our paper. They had tons of dollars coming in which they needed to put to work.

Wall Street sales people aka investment bankers never want to be without a "product" for long when there are buyers about. They were more than happy to cook some up. As the demand continued to increase the quality went down.

Roubini is simply asking if it might be better to try to stimulate domestic consumption in emerging markets so as to not do this cycle again. Can anyone seriously take issue with that? I guess you can if you thought "Great Bubble 2000's I" was great and look forward to "Great Bubble 2000's II)




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130358-the-bankruptcy-carve-out-problem-on-agency-deals?source=feed#comment-460030 460030 Sat, 11 Apr 2009 17:25:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130358-the-bankruptcy-carve-out-problem-on-agency-deals?source=feed#comment-460026 460026 Sat, 11 Apr 2009 17:20:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129157-mark-to-market-time-of-death-8-45am-april-2-2009?source=feed#comment-450199 450199
First, the truth is that probably no more than say 20% of the American public know what a balance sheet is let alone know how it works. I think many of you would agree that I am being nice here. I know I was one of them (that had no idea) even though I had run a very successful private company.

Then one day "BIG Corp" came to town and said...hey let us pay you millions. Perfect! Now I am at Big Corp and the first company they give me to run the first day the controller comes in to tell me that "hey our balance sheet is really clean." I think to myself for one second..I wonder what she meant.

Next thing I know...I am running a major portion of BIG Corp...and same controller tells me to watch out .....major portions of the companies balance sheet/s have "problems." Again..at first...I wonder what that means.

OH..WOW. You mean you can cheat your P&L with that balance sheet thing! I felt like Gomer Pile and the Pentagon. My "moment of Zen" came to me when I had dinner with the Regional Controller who was leaving to take a new job (a short time after my promotion) and he told me he was leaving because "its just not fun anymore now that you are here...we can't be as creative." I wanted "creative people" I just wanted them in the design department not in accounting.

I mean when you are work in the real economy running real businesses when you don't have any cash you cannot make the payroll...and things stop real fast. The sad truth is that many many people have no idea what this change means. But, I concur it is a license to lie cheat and steel. And I also concur (and it is very sad) that that is nothing new. But the whole "system" became "infected" with this kind of thinking..and the higher up you went (on average) the worse it was and is.

Now the accountants...the outside ones were a total joke in that time...late 90's early 2000's. I mean a total joke. The operators who were cheating using their balance sheets were more afraid of the internal audit people than PW. Eventually it caught up to all of them. I think that the AA experience produced enough "shock and awe" that even some of the most "creative" accountants decided that people could actually go to jail for what they were doing and decided that being some Con's "bitch" was not really high on their list of things to do.

The answer is simple...hey we will just make the rules more "flexible." This is tragic and eventually there will be hell to pay...but..not today.

Go Tyler...

]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:56:12 -0400
First, the truth is that probably no more than say 20% of the American public know what a balance sheet is let alone know how it works. I think many of you would agree that I am being nice here. I know I was one of them (that had no idea) even though I had run a very successful private company.

Then one day "BIG Corp" came to town and said...hey let us pay you millions. Perfect! Now I am at Big Corp and the first company they give me to run the first day the controller comes in to tell me that "hey our balance sheet is really clean." I think to myself for one second..I wonder what she meant.

Next thing I know...I am running a major portion of BIG Corp...and same controller tells me to watch out .....major portions of the companies balance sheet/s have "problems." Again..at first...I wonder what that means.

OH..WOW. You mean you can cheat your P&L with that balance sheet thing! I felt like Gomer Pile and the Pentagon. My "moment of Zen" came to me when I had dinner with the Regional Controller who was leaving to take a new job (a short time after my promotion) and he told me he was leaving because "its just not fun anymore now that you are here...we can't be as creative." I wanted "creative people" I just wanted them in the design department not in accounting.

I mean when you are work in the real economy running real businesses when you don't have any cash you cannot make the payroll...and things stop real fast. The sad truth is that many many people have no idea what this change means. But, I concur it is a license to lie cheat and steel. And I also concur (and it is very sad) that that is nothing new. But the whole "system" became "infected" with this kind of thinking..and the higher up you went (on average) the worse it was and is.

Now the accountants...the outside ones were a total joke in that time...late 90's early 2000's. I mean a total joke. The operators who were cheating using their balance sheets were more afraid of the internal audit people than PW. Eventually it caught up to all of them. I think that the AA experience produced enough "shock and awe" that even some of the most "creative" accountants decided that people could actually go to jail for what they were doing and decided that being some Con's "bitch" was not really high on their list of things to do.

The answer is simple...hey we will just make the rules more "flexible." This is tragic and eventually there will be hell to pay...but..not today.

Go Tyler...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128272-cds-recoveries-down-and-out?source=feed#comment-443978 443978
I mean really, if you are not on one side or the other of a debt trade on say Lehman these should be "taken out and shot." I can see no economic reason to have CDS short of a hedge if you are in a position. Then fine. But short of that it is just pure gambling. In 1929 they had this type of thing for equities and they called them "bucket shops."

In insurance you have to have an insurable interest. Which is to say you cannot buy insurance on a street person. The same concept should govern these. ]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 10:51:04 -0400
I mean really, if you are not on one side or the other of a debt trade on say Lehman these should be "taken out and shot." I can see no economic reason to have CDS short of a hedge if you are in a position. Then fine. But short of that it is just pure gambling. In 1929 they had this type of thing for equities and they called them "bucket shops."

In insurance you have to have an insurable interest. Which is to say you cannot buy insurance on a street person. The same concept should govern these. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126211-jeremy-grantham-reinvesting-when-terrified?source=feed#comment-437556 437556
He called the top and has more or less called the bottom. He is of course too smart to say it is a bottom as we could easily sink back again.

But, I will say this...when he became ever so much more positive in his Jan newsletter I hung in a bit longer with my shorts...I am not after all moving billions around...but...went long about a month ago with SSO.

Thanks you thank you (again) Mr. Grantham. For all the people who have "thoughts" on CNBC and on here...I have found this guy to be dead...nuts...on. I highly highly recommend that Seeking Alphas pay close attention to him]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 22:37:09 -0400
He called the top and has more or less called the bottom. He is of course too smart to say it is a bottom as we could easily sink back again.

But, I will say this...when he became ever so much more positive in his Jan newsletter I hung in a bit longer with my shorts...I am not after all moving billions around...but...went long about a month ago with SSO.

Thanks you thank you (again) Mr. Grantham. For all the people who have "thoughts" on CNBC and on here...I have found this guy to be dead...nuts...on. I highly highly recommend that Seeking Alphas pay close attention to him]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127089-wells-fargo-john-stumpf-s-letter-to-shareholders-is-a-must-read?source=feed#comment-435851 435851
They have performed better than their peers for sure...but overall I think this is just more bla bla bla...from a CEO to tell the truth. ]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:28:29 -0400
They have performed better than their peers for sure...but overall I think this is just more bla bla bla...from a CEO to tell the truth. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127150-will-someone-remove-geithner-from-the-poker-table-please?source=feed#comment-435831 435831
Rather than just deal directly with the problem which is I think called the "Swedish" solution and take the banks over on a temporary basis and clean out the mess on the balance sheets it appears we have to find a way for the Goldman's of the world to make a buck on this....a huge buck.

I suppose the rational is that Congress will not vote for the Trillion dollars that would be needed to do this directly. At least that way we would know we were getting the job done.

This is a disappointment. ]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:12:56 -0400
Rather than just deal directly with the problem which is I think called the "Swedish" solution and take the banks over on a temporary basis and clean out the mess on the balance sheets it appears we have to find a way for the Goldman's of the world to make a buck on this....a huge buck.

I suppose the rational is that Congress will not vote for the Trillion dollars that would be needed to do this directly. At least that way we would know we were getting the job done.

This is a disappointment. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121702-buffett-grantham-and-china-what-the-savers-are-buying?source=feed#comment-398713 398713
Grantham is someone I have started to follow very carefully. He has a quarterly newsletter that goes out for free. All you have to do is put your name on the list. I highly recommend that as well. gmo.com

All in all Grantham has been talking for at least two years about what I believe are the three big issues of our time. First even before things got bad he said we were in the "first worldwide all asset class bubble" and that no one had the guts to call it like it was let alone stand up and "pop" the bubble early on. In this regard he zeros in on Greenspan. He is old school (as am I) and see the traditional role of the central banker to be to "take the punch bowl away just as the party starts to get really fun." In this situation the "rational market" ideology of the Fed chair prevented this.

Next he has talked about what I consider to be the great "group think" or as Grantham describes it.."people were paying more and more to take on more and more risk." This of course is the exact the opposite of how markets should function.

He described how "career risk" among CEO's and others also accelerated the bubble. I call this simply "lack of leadership."

Remember this is a guy who called it to a tee. A bit early yes...but like Buffett he would concede that value investors are not great market timers. Now he says that the market is getting close to fair value. But...he also says that in most bubbles things tend to "over correct" before they "revert to the mean."

If you start to do a top down analysis and believe that expected earnings in the S&P are still to rosy..you can at the low end expect total earnings in the S&P in 2009 to be around $50.00 and a PE of somewhere between 10 - 15 that would put a bottom in at between where we are now...750 and a low of 500. That is where Grantham is as well.

Now all you have to do is pick how much risk you want to take on to make how much gain. Above all you need to be very patient and not blink.

]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:29:02 -0500
Grantham is someone I have started to follow very carefully. He has a quarterly newsletter that goes out for free. All you have to do is put your name on the list. I highly recommend that as well. gmo.com

All in all Grantham has been talking for at least two years about what I believe are the three big issues of our time. First even before things got bad he said we were in the "first worldwide all asset class bubble" and that no one had the guts to call it like it was let alone stand up and "pop" the bubble early on. In this regard he zeros in on Greenspan. He is old school (as am I) and see the traditional role of the central banker to be to "take the punch bowl away just as the party starts to get really fun." In this situation the "rational market" ideology of the Fed chair prevented this.

Next he has talked about what I consider to be the great "group think" or as Grantham describes it.."people were paying more and more to take on more and more risk." This of course is the exact the opposite of how markets should function.

He described how "career risk" among CEO's and others also accelerated the bubble. I call this simply "lack of leadership."

Remember this is a guy who called it to a tee. A bit early yes...but like Buffett he would concede that value investors are not great market timers. Now he says that the market is getting close to fair value. But...he also says that in most bubbles things tend to "over correct" before they "revert to the mean."

If you start to do a top down analysis and believe that expected earnings in the S&P are still to rosy..you can at the low end expect total earnings in the S&P in 2009 to be around $50.00 and a PE of somewhere between 10 - 15 that would put a bottom in at between where we are now...750 and a low of 500. That is where Grantham is as well.

Now all you have to do is pick how much risk you want to take on to make how much gain. Above all you need to be very patient and not blink.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120640-major-investors-piling-into-gold?source=feed#comment-390512 390512
Disclosure long gold....first time ever. ]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 11:48:09 -0500
Disclosure long gold....first time ever. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115288-selfishness-vs-selflessness?source=feed#comment-359997 359997
Yeah, it was really an efficient use of capital to create trillions of dollars in CDO, CDS and the like...right? It was really an efficient use of capital to pay the guys who ruined (no strike that destroyed) their firms ten's of millions and even hundreds of millions of dollars as compensation to do it.

Now before the "mob" takes off on me..I am not saying that government will do all that much better. But, on the other hand..can it really do much worse?

I think what Fred Wilson may be saying here is that a little more long term thinking...call it selflessness or just delayed greed...would go a hell of a long way. We have seen the results of an era when weak kneed poorly led companies and government that promised huge tax cuts and huge spending increases, huge trade deficits would bring prosperity or in the case of companies that they could make "wine our of water" using derivatives. It was all smoke and mirrors and the masses loved it. Why not. But it was just a lot of ...ah crap..would be the technical term.

Its time to put ideology aside...and do what works. If we cannot put our individual short term greed aside here for a bit...the nation is screwed. That much I agree with Fred about. Those that participated in getting us here...would do well to listen up. The alternatives are far worse.



]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 13:00:08 -0500
Yeah, it was really an efficient use of capital to create trillions of dollars in CDO, CDS and the like...right? It was really an efficient use of capital to pay the guys who ruined (no strike that destroyed) their firms ten's of millions and even hundreds of millions of dollars as compensation to do it.

Now before the "mob" takes off on me..I am not saying that government will do all that much better. But, on the other hand..can it really do much worse?

I think what Fred Wilson may be saying here is that a little more long term thinking...call it selflessness or just delayed greed...would go a hell of a long way. We have seen the results of an era when weak kneed poorly led companies and government that promised huge tax cuts and huge spending increases, huge trade deficits would bring prosperity or in the case of companies that they could make "wine our of water" using derivatives. It was all smoke and mirrors and the masses loved it. Why not. But it was just a lot of ...ah crap..would be the technical term.

Its time to put ideology aside...and do what works. If we cannot put our individual short term greed aside here for a bit...the nation is screwed. That much I agree with Fred about. Those that participated in getting us here...would do well to listen up. The alternatives are far worse.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114093-citi-off-the-banking-reservation?source=feed#comment-352612 352612
The issue here is that most independent observers believe that the only way to really move on is to start the painful process of writing down toxic assets. Some of this has been done but not nearly enough.

If we are to avoid a "zombie real estate market" for the next 20 years or so this has to happen. This will allow people working with homeowners (so called loan mod companies) to have a "hammer" to wield when negotiating work outs. Other than that the banks will just tend to "kick the can down the road" by offering the same crap (that is the technical term) they did the first time round. (easy first year payments with a ballon).

The major issue is that it will very likely become necessary for the courts to appoint "special masters" or others to take on the case load. At this time there are just not enough BK judges to process the wave that will come.

But, with all that said...it is something that has to be done with the Feds back stopping the banks that have some legs after this is all over and letting the most irresponsible fail...and wipe out the equity and debt positions of the people who took on the private sector risks. ]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:46:11 -0500
The issue here is that most independent observers believe that the only way to really move on is to start the painful process of writing down toxic assets. Some of this has been done but not nearly enough.

If we are to avoid a "zombie real estate market" for the next 20 years or so this has to happen. This will allow people working with homeowners (so called loan mod companies) to have a "hammer" to wield when negotiating work outs. Other than that the banks will just tend to "kick the can down the road" by offering the same crap (that is the technical term) they did the first time round. (easy first year payments with a ballon).

The major issue is that it will very likely become necessary for the courts to appoint "special masters" or others to take on the case load. At this time there are just not enough BK judges to process the wave that will come.

But, with all that said...it is something that has to be done with the Feds back stopping the banks that have some legs after this is all over and letting the most irresponsible fail...and wipe out the equity and debt positions of the people who took on the private sector risks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114253-want-to-reform-wall-st-bring-back-partnership-investment-banks?source=feed#comment-352601 352601
But it appears that once the individuals balance sheet was no longer on the line this "freed them up" to become a good deal more "innovative" I think the term was.

Funny how people behave very differently when it is their own money on the line and not OPM. This is a concept that as a small buiness person I am very familiar with. No small business person would or was allowed to lever up their balance sheets 30 or 40 to 1. It is insane. Yet...this was the standard operating procedure it seems on Wall Street. ]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:29:22 -0500
But it appears that once the individuals balance sheet was no longer on the line this "freed them up" to become a good deal more "innovative" I think the term was.

Funny how people behave very differently when it is their own money on the line and not OPM. This is a concept that as a small buiness person I am very familiar with. No small business person would or was allowed to lever up their balance sheets 30 or 40 to 1. It is insane. Yet...this was the standard operating procedure it seems on Wall Street. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112773-the-banker-connecting-the-dots?source=feed#comment-343827 343827
But the idea of fattening up the smaller banks so they can be fed to the B of A's of the world and worse is a truly disgusting thought. I see these sweat little "piggy banks" on a conveyor belt being fed into the great big ugly "meat packing plant." Wow...truly a frightening idea. ]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:04:09 -0500
But the idea of fattening up the smaller banks so they can be fed to the B of A's of the world and worse is a truly disgusting thought. I see these sweat little "piggy banks" on a conveyor belt being fed into the great big ugly "meat packing plant." Wow...truly a frightening idea. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112658-another-big-bank-failure-more-likely-than-not-to-occur?source=feed#comment-343824 343824
I have done reasonably well in both shorting and then going long with WFC now and again. I think that the government overlay here makes these investments "too complex" at least for me.

There are a lot of people that believe as this writer does that the banks are still hiding lots of I think "garbage" would be the polite term on their balance sheets. So the risk of another large failure cannot be written off. However, I think that letting Lehman fail and the aftermath of that convinced a lot of government and policy types that the alternative of letting a big financial institution fail is just too scary right now. Crap they rescued GMAC..when not many people were looking. I do not see them letting another large one go anytime soon.

]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 21:49:25 -0500
I have done reasonably well in both shorting and then going long with WFC now and again. I think that the government overlay here makes these investments "too complex" at least for me.

There are a lot of people that believe as this writer does that the banks are still hiding lots of I think "garbage" would be the polite term on their balance sheets. So the risk of another large failure cannot be written off. However, I think that letting Lehman fail and the aftermath of that convinced a lot of government and policy types that the alternative of letting a big financial institution fail is just too scary right now. Crap they rescued GMAC..when not many people were looking. I do not see them letting another large one go anytime soon.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112200-why-does-cramer-have-a-beef-with-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-337934 337934
Next, for many years I wanted to short certain sectors as opposed to one stock. The risk of shorting one stock was too high in my mind. In addition, I did not want to even think about the "logistics" of doing it.

What I think is so hypocritical are the Wall Streeters who do not want the great "unwashed" to have access to securities that allow us to easily short the living crap out of the junk they created...like financial companies that cooked up CDO's paid huge "bonuses" on profits that were cooked up and the like. No no....just "buy and hold" you droolers..as we put it to you idiots.

ETF's have allowed a small investor from Oregon (me) to take positions that were completely obvious...like ah...short financial. Guess what, I made money. I made money not listening to the likes of Jim Cramer or any number of Wall Street people who were telling everyone that things were "contained." (Hank Paulson) That the subprime issues were not that bad..and on and on.

Please...this is nothing more than the wolves trying to make sure that the sheep just keeping saying "ba ba...buy and hold...buy and hold."

No thanks. You want to see some real heat just start to do away with these tools.



]]> Thu, 25 Dec 2008 01:16:07 -0500
Next, for many years I wanted to short certain sectors as opposed to one stock. The risk of shorting one stock was too high in my mind. In addition, I did not want to even think about the "logistics" of doing it.

What I think is so hypocritical are the Wall Streeters who do not want the great "unwashed" to have access to securities that allow us to easily short the living crap out of the junk they created...like financial companies that cooked up CDO's paid huge "bonuses" on profits that were cooked up and the like. No no....just "buy and hold" you droolers..as we put it to you idiots.

ETF's have allowed a small investor from Oregon (me) to take positions that were completely obvious...like ah...short financial. Guess what, I made money. I made money not listening to the likes of Jim Cramer or any number of Wall Street people who were telling everyone that things were "contained." (Hank Paulson) That the subprime issues were not that bad..and on and on.

Please...this is nothing more than the wolves trying to make sure that the sheep just keeping saying "ba ba...buy and hold...buy and hold."

No thanks. You want to see some real heat just start to do away with these tools.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111857-peter-schiff-outlook-for-the-gold-market?source=feed#comment-337901 337901
I am looking to several "tells" that should allow me (I hope) to move fast. First, when oil prices start to increase. Second, when US housing prices at least slow their rate of decline and finally when the Chines economy starts to take off again. I think they will be in this order or very close to it. China may take off before the US housing market stabilizes.

When these things start to occur it time to jump on gold and commodities. ]]> Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:58:18 -0500
I am looking to several "tells" that should allow me (I hope) to move fast. First, when oil prices start to increase. Second, when US housing prices at least slow their rate of decline and finally when the Chines economy starts to take off again. I think they will be in this order or very close to it. China may take off before the US housing market stabilizes.

When these things start to occur it time to jump on gold and commodities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112062-second-guessing-buffett-s-november-bottom-call?source=feed#comment-336737 336737 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:29:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111594-opec-too-little-too-late?source=feed#comment-335300 335300 Sun, 21 Dec 2008 20:28:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting?source=feed#comment-285980 285980
Seems like a plan to defuse them as carefully as possible is in order. ]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 22:52:02 -0400
Seems like a plan to defuse them as carefully as possible is in order. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96351-nine-adult-entertainment-stocks-to-weather-the-recession?source=feed#comment-270167 270167 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:42:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96642-in-defense-of-the-paulson-plan?source=feed#comment-262053 262053
If you were to read the text of the bill the administration sent to Congress (which I wonder if this writer did) it really has only two provisions. First, give Paulson $700 billion of taxpayer money next see what happens. ]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 22:02:36 -0400
If you were to read the text of the bill the administration sent to Congress (which I wonder if this writer did) it really has only two provisions. First, give Paulson $700 billion of taxpayer money next see what happens. ]]>