Msrpaul's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/136569/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/130260-the-treasury-short-still-viable?source=feed#comment-458339 458339 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:43:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-400797 400797 Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:34:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120615-goldman-sachs-should-hit-it-big-in-2009?source=feed#comment-389349 389349
M&A? That business is dead for a LONG time.
Leverage? From 40/1 to 10/1. Rates are low. Nothing there.
Gather deposits? From whom? I don't see a Goldman Sachs branch anywhere.
Trading? Maybe. But we all know that's now a good long term way to generate income.
Loan Securitisation? Nope.

These models are dead and never coming back. Goldman will wurvive, because there is a revolving door between the Central Bank and GS, so they wil get sweetie deals from the Feds. That will make their principals money. Stockholders? We're already a double from the low. I was actually thinking about shorting it with a stop at 100.]]> Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:12:40 -0500
M&A? That business is dead for a LONG time.
Leverage? From 40/1 to 10/1. Rates are low. Nothing there.
Gather deposits? From whom? I don't see a Goldman Sachs branch anywhere.
Trading? Maybe. But we all know that's now a good long term way to generate income.
Loan Securitisation? Nope.

These models are dead and never coming back. Goldman will wurvive, because there is a revolving door between the Central Bank and GS, so they wil get sweetie deals from the Feds. That will make their principals money. Stockholders? We're already a double from the low. I was actually thinking about shorting it with a stop at 100.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99415-where-we-go-from-here-best-and-worst-cases?source=feed#comment-280069 280069 Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:45:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99460-is-gold-a-sucker-s-bet?source=feed#comment-280044 280044
You predict gold will fall, and it may. But your prediction is correlation to other commodities, which have industrial or consumptive value, that of course are tradeable for those pieces of paper, and in hard times, supply exceeds demand. Every governments response to such circumstance is the same. Print more paper to make people feel wealthy so they borrow and spend. But human behavior is different than that. In deflationary times, people avoid debt, consume less, and spend more time with family. Good for humanity, bad for economy.

The problem is, over time, the public grows to mistrust governments everywhere who use the printing press as a solution to bail out the corrupt. Gold is the one thing that equalizes the equation of citizens against their government. That's why it was illegal to own in the free USA for so many years.

Yes, governments through their central banks, because they know that as nation to nation, just as citizen to government, gold is money. It's why the Nazi's robbed very central bank in WW2. DO you think the Swiss were going to make tanks and ship them to Germany for marks?

Nope. Only gold shines in hard times.

There are times when I may choose not to go long gold, but I would NEVER short it. (neither would I short energy or food). Step aside if you think it is overvalued. But shorting any of these 3 is Russian roulette. It gold falls to 800, I'm bying. I'll buy more at 750. At 650, I'll gladly trade all my dollars in for gold. Because the government always responds to deflation the same way. print print print print]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:00:22 -0400
You predict gold will fall, and it may. But your prediction is correlation to other commodities, which have industrial or consumptive value, that of course are tradeable for those pieces of paper, and in hard times, supply exceeds demand. Every governments response to such circumstance is the same. Print more paper to make people feel wealthy so they borrow and spend. But human behavior is different than that. In deflationary times, people avoid debt, consume less, and spend more time with family. Good for humanity, bad for economy.

The problem is, over time, the public grows to mistrust governments everywhere who use the printing press as a solution to bail out the corrupt. Gold is the one thing that equalizes the equation of citizens against their government. That's why it was illegal to own in the free USA for so many years.

Yes, governments through their central banks, because they know that as nation to nation, just as citizen to government, gold is money. It's why the Nazi's robbed very central bank in WW2. DO you think the Swiss were going to make tanks and ship them to Germany for marks?

Nope. Only gold shines in hard times.

There are times when I may choose not to go long gold, but I would NEVER short it. (neither would I short energy or food). Step aside if you think it is overvalued. But shorting any of these 3 is Russian roulette. It gold falls to 800, I'm bying. I'll buy more at 750. At 650, I'll gladly trade all my dollars in for gold. Because the government always responds to deflation the same way. print print print print]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99424-this-isn-t-a-bottom-it-s-a-disturbance-in-the-force?source=feed#comment-279391 279391 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:36:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98953-goldman-disses-solar-cramer-s-stop-trading-10-7-08?source=feed#comment-276430 276430 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 22:55:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97968-historic-strength-for-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-270012 270012 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:49:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97942-dollar-soars?source=feed#comment-269810 269810 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:50:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97244-suggested-entry-point-for-going-long-nasdaq?source=feed#comment-264235 264235 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:22:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94413-how-the-fannie-freddie-announcement-impacts-forex-m-a?source=feed#comment-248916 248916 The dollar is worth nothing but bathroom functions.]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:35:25 -0400 The dollar is worth nothing but bathroom functions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80183-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-179961 179961
I always love your posts. I got out of commodities before the last final and rewarding run, and keep waiting to get back in. I am aghast at the markets' willingness to digest bad news, but then again, with the coffers of the Fed in their minds as a backstop, risk is the only way to go. The consumer lending market has ground to a halt, and lots of people are on the brink. I know, as I work in the financial industry and see them. There is huge overcapacity in the financial system, which is yet to be dealt with. And today, the Ambac's got downgraded, and the market RALLIED!!!! What's missing from this picture? In the end, we are experimenting with a great game, using assetts instead of income to try to maintain"wealth" i.e. borrowing to keep the debt spiral running. The housing market is deflating. Moreover, today, the market rallies on high oil. I just can't figure the twisted logic. And gold falls on a weaker dollar.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 19:02:36 -0400
I always love your posts. I got out of commodities before the last final and rewarding run, and keep waiting to get back in. I am aghast at the markets' willingness to digest bad news, but then again, with the coffers of the Fed in their minds as a backstop, risk is the only way to go. The consumer lending market has ground to a halt, and lots of people are on the brink. I know, as I work in the financial industry and see them. There is huge overcapacity in the financial system, which is yet to be dealt with. And today, the Ambac's got downgraded, and the market RALLIED!!!! What's missing from this picture? In the end, we are experimenting with a great game, using assetts instead of income to try to maintain"wealth" i.e. borrowing to keep the debt spiral running. The housing market is deflating. Moreover, today, the market rallies on high oil. I just can't figure the twisted logic. And gold falls on a weaker dollar.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79502-bond-etfs-are-treasury-bonds-entering-a-downtrend?source=feed#comment-177075 177075 Fri, 30 May 2008 21:00:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71114-the-bull-is-sharpening-his-horns?source=feed#comment-136265 136265 Thu, 03 Apr 2008 20:34:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69920-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-131713 131713
In our incredible desire over the years to avoid normal and healthy corrections, we have built an artificial economy based on assetts, not income. Housing will regress to the mean, as supply and demand will ultimately trump any tricks the Fed can attempt.

Now commodities inflation will enter, and will exist for years.

Great charts David, I look for them every day.]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 09:14:33 -0400
In our incredible desire over the years to avoid normal and healthy corrections, we have built an artificial economy based on assetts, not income. Housing will regress to the mean, as supply and demand will ultimately trump any tricks the Fed can attempt.

Now commodities inflation will enter, and will exist for years.

Great charts David, I look for them every day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69781-financial-stocks-to-buy-when-the-market-reverses?source=feed#comment-131478 131478 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 20:58:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69557-3-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-the-investment-banks?source=feed#comment-130380 130380 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 19:15:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66485-ambac-mbia-are-still-shorts-amidst-this-wink-and-nod?source=feed#comment-120479 120479
Moodys, S&P should be hung.]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 21:53:51 -0500
Moodys, S&P should be hung.]]>