Msrpaul

Goldman Sachs Should Hit It Big in 2009

OK...and Goldmans is going to do....what?

M&A? That business is dead for a LONG time.
Leverage? From 40/1 to 10/1. Rates are low. Nothing there.
Gather deposits? From whom? I don't see a Goldman Sachs branch anywhere.
Trading? Maybe. But we all know that's now a good long term way to generate income.
Loan Securitisation? Nope.

These models are dead and never coming back. Goldman will wurvive, because there is a revolving door between the Central Bank and GS, so they wil get sweetie deals from the Feds. That will make their principals money. Stockholders? We're already a double from the low. I was actually thinking about shorting it with a stop at 100.

3 Reasons To Be Bullish on the Investment Banks

I think that what you're not counting on is continued consolodation in the brokerage industry. The pace of M&M and mortage backed securitization will never return to its former days, and a lot of deleveraging has to take place. HOmes will return to being homes, not commodities to flip, and they will be financed accordingly. The "house of cards", this time made with bricks and mortar, has a long way to go to regress to the mean. That's bad gor LEH and MER especially, no?