Promod Radhakrishnan

http://www.invest4tomorrow.blogspot.com
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    • Thu Mar 13th 08:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Sensible and Refreshing Move from the Fed
      Reinko, pardon my exuberance associated with a good day at the market. I just though a massive up-day after long gloomy weeks deserved some cheer.

      As for macro economics, i cannot agree more with you on the fact that deficit budgets, over reliance on consumer spending and over dependence on foreign investment in treasuries and US assets won't keep the economy stable and growing for long. There are obvisouly fundamental changes required - hopefully some of that to start coming with the next government in power. However, we are not really in a time where we could/should cry over macr economic ills and the fact that a crash is bound to happen. All said, i don't hold a view that a 200 bn kitty is enough to avoid slow down or recession completely. However, we need the establishment to think forward, think positive and take steps that would smoothen the slow down and make it bearable for the economy and all of us. If we keep a prudish you-did-wrong appraoch with the money center banks, how would you expect them to lend for homes and education...and in that case, how would you expect the economy to stay resilient.

      Just to recap - this single Fed move won't make for a turn of the tide. However, we need multiple steps like these to bring some sanity to the credit/fixed income markets.

      Tony, likd your story :-)
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    • Tue Mar 4th 07:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can the Fed Really Afford to Cut Another 50-75 Points?
      I agree with your assessment of the current situation - we definitely need a lot of focus on saving the insurers and money center banks. However, once another rate cut takes us to 2.50 or 2.25, the fed will no longer have any leeway in rate reduction as a monetary tool. And given the current situation, i feel just one more rate cut instalment would not do much good. If the Fed instead focuses all attention on what lilguy has mentioned ("find a more direct way to...") and provides rate cuts in spaced out instalments, that might give it more time from a monetary policy stand point. And leave enough room for the market down the year to expect positive monetary policy updates.
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    • Tue Feb 19th 19:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      HANS and CROX Are Here to Pump You Up
      Love to short: You obviosuly got it right on Q4 earnings - was a bad beating post-earnings! I still hold my view on CROX though - and hold on to my Sep calls.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 6th 19:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Rare Buying Opportunity in the Tech Sector
      CSCO earnings report today is going to add to this short term pain. I dont think the entire sector's going for a prolonged slump though. Especially MSFT, GOOG - there's enough inherent strength in their business models to make them attractive at current levels even in a slow market. Downside risks in AAPL might be higher in the short-to-medium term though.
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    • Wed Feb 6th 19:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Rare Buying Opportunity in the Tech Sector
      techy:
      I agree with you on the nature of this article! I hold on to the view despite the CSCO earnings report!

      Let's take a look at these stocks individually:

      1) MSFT has been sustaining a revenue and EPS growth of over 24% over multiple quarters. Assuming a PEG of 1 on forward earnings, you are looking at a EPS growth of 18 to price the stock at 31+. I do not think the slow down/recession is going to be as bad that MSFT gets hit worser than that!

      2) AAPL - Phenomenal EPS growth over the past quarters due to block buster cutting edge products and high margins. Revenue growth of 28%. At 120-125, the stock is priced at a PE of ~28. If you really hold a negative view on the economy, i would agree this one holds some medium-term risk. However, i dont see much of a risk on a 12-18 month horizon.

      3)GOOG - EPS growth of over 50%+ consitently over past quarters. At a PE of 38 at 495 levels, this one's holding the least amount of risk among the 3 - again by a classic PEG=1 thumbrule. I do not believe a revenue stream of online advertising would be as affected by a slow down as compared to TV or other media advertising.


      Finally, the calls you take on these stocks - short term or long term depends on your risk appetite and view on the economy. Short or medium term, the judgements are debatable, especially on AAPL. Long term (12-18 months) risk is very low on these stocks at current levels.

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    • Tue Feb 5th 08:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Volatile January for Financials, Healthcare
      sun rising: Sorry, didn't see your question. Now that the event's over, i hope you did exit. Oil this year might not have a good run.
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 5th 08:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six January Value Plays to Warm Your Portfolio
      Duke: C, WB and most of the big ticket financials in fact DID bounce back from January beginning lows. There would definitely be some short-term profit taking, but some names like C are so cheap in terms of valuation that medium-long term upside risk is low.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 13th 09:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My 2008 Investment Prognosis
      KO, PG, JNJ, MO are all long-term bets over a 6-12 month period of sustained slowdown...its an old theory, where non-cyclicals do well in periods of down turns. GG might see intermittent spikes, but depending on your view on commodities over the next 2-3 quarters (I am bearish to neutral), it would correct. Eitherway, its going to be a very volatile ride for folks holding Newmont, Goldcorp etc.
      View article »
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