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  • The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated [View article]
    What the graph doesn't show is the ratio of revenue/GDP for the S&P500. If the S&P500 companies sales used to be responsible for a smaller percentage of the GDP, that alone could account for the difference in the market cap / GDP ratio.

    Basically, a historical price-to-sales graph for the S&P 500 would be much more interesting.
    Nov 21 11:07 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Trouble with the Russells [View article]
    It's also interesting that the Dow is suddenly ahead of the S&P500
    finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^GSPC
    or I should say the latter is suddenly behind the former.
    Nov 20 13:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • 2009's Magic Formula Buyouts and Bankruptcies [View article]
    SOAP didn't go bankrupt. It liquidated itself giving back all of its cash thru a special dividend.
    Nov 18 15:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Marc Farber: Gold Will Never Fall Below $1,000 Again [View article]
    Last year T Boone Pickens said that oil will never drop below $100. It hasn't come back yet.
    Nov 18 13:00 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Seaboard: Watching the Stocks that Nobody Watches [View article]
    > The thing I don’t get is why Seaboard pays a quarterly dividend of 75 cents a share. At the current price, that’s less than 0.2% a year. Why bother?

    Well, if you bought the stock at $5-1/8 you wouldn't be asking this question.

    A $2B company is not likely to grow another 30,000% - that's the sad part.
    Nov 17 18:32 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Investment Technology Group – POSIT-tively Cheap [View instapost]
    Paul,

    Did you close your previous ITG positions at the recent high?
    Just curious if you hold until expiration or manage your positions actively.
    Nov 14 02:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long Helios Total Return Fund [View article]
    > My bet is that mortgage backed securities are currently undervalued and HTR is undervalued against the underlying assets.

    Why would they be undervalued if the Fed has bought $1T of those?
    Nov 12 02:21 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Are ETFs Causing an Emerging Markets Bubble? [View article]
    So what do you think will burst this bubble?
    Nov 12 00:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo's Mortgage Conversion Scheme: Delaying the Inevitable [View article]
    And I thought no one could do what Countrywide could:
    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    Nov 06 15:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Q4 Growth Likely to Be Stronger than Q3 [View article]
    Hm, they've been revising past GDP estimates down lately so the 3.5% growth might turn out to be less than 3.2% after it's revised.
    Also, if AMZN increases its earnings at the cost of its rivals, that's not going to improve overall earnings at all.
    Oct 30 10:42 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Getting Growth Back on Track Could Be Very Rewarding [View article]
    The second graph is very informative but I don't believe the trend will continue. For the last 30 years GDP growth has been boosted thru borrowing. Not only will it be harder to borrow in the future but the US will also have to pay more in interest every year.
    How about adding Japan to the graph? As I understand their real growth has been around 0% for the last 20 years. That seems like a more likely scenario for the US as well. Slightly better perhaps (1%?) since the US demographics is not as bad.
    Oct 29 19:07 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Shell Game Moves to Autos [View article]
    Mark,
    At least in this case the benefits are visible. Someone is going to buy a car, or a house, or whatever. Somebody else might keep keep their job.

    When AIG got 100+ billion, nobody knows where the money went - at least the number of people who benefited was much smaller, those people already had plenty of money, and they live (or could live if they wanted to) in Switzerland.
    Oct 28 18:48 pm |Rating: 0 -7 |Link to Comment
  • How to Value Amazon?  [View article]
    I actually worked for Amazon as a software developer. Their website platform is not perfect but it's years ahead of many competitors. Another company might be able to replicate their platform and site features with one billion dollars but that would be the price tag every year for 10 years or so and by then Amazon's website will have improved too.
    I imagine it's nice for Amazon's customers to have a single place to track their purchases (books, CDs, etc). That adds to Amazon's moat too.
    Having said that, Amazon has too big a market cap to deserve such a high PE multiple.
    Oct 26 13:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint Semiconductor Savaged After Hours: Another Reason Not to Game Earnings [View article]
    Good call. There is not much demand for value in a bull market.
    Oct 21 20:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn's Speech at the Value Investing Congress [View article]
    Einhorn's book (Fooling some people all of the time) is pretty interesting too. Highly recommend.
    Oct 20 13:22 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
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