igggy

12 Reasons to Short Gold

Agree with everything except #12. We are still far away from any kind of recovery and the Baltic Dry index is a traders game right now.

Debt to Income Ratios and the U.S. Savings Rate

When people are so poor they can't buy the stuff they make, the only way to make them buy is to load them up with debt so the economy could keep 'growing'.
There needs to be a chart showing how the incomes have changed. The bottom decile's income has actually gone down in real terms over the last 40 years. The top has had a nice increase in their incomes (I can't recall the exact rate). I see more prisons in our future.

The Shell Game of State Revenues

I keep thinking about Japan these days. It's amazing that with all their economic stimuli and what not - they still have deflation. I wonder if that's what's ahead of us despite all the money printing.

Stocks vs. Bonds: Return Statistics

Sorry, something doesn't make sense here. The 60/40 portfolio should have the maximum drawdown of 0.6*0.45+0.4*0.19=0.346 or 34.6%. And that's assuming perfect correlation between bonds and stocks. In reality, the maximum drawdown was probably less than 30%. What am I missing here?

John Hussman: Fighting Recklessness with Recklessness

I wonder if the US government's hope is that all debt will eventually get eaten up by inflation. And that includes the government's own debt.

The Most Significant Green Shoot Starts to Wilt

Ray, Thanks for the excerpt.
Apparently, Cetin is a bigger idiot than I thought. Just like in Seinfeld: "Perhaps, there is more to Cetin than meets the eye. No, there is less".

Cutting Back Commercial REIT Shorts, Again

Why not use SRS? It's pretty much acting the same way but with a double bang. And you don't have to short.

What Natural Gas Prices Say about the Domestic Economy

I wish the government would offer an incentive for people to convert from heating oil to natural gas. Seems like that should be a no brainer.

Marc Farber: Gold Will Never Fall Below $1,000 Again

Last year T Boone Pickens said that oil will never drop below $100. It hasn't come back yet.

Art Cashin: Correction Will Be Clear by Next Friday

My intuition says revenue estimates will be missed but earnings estimates will be beat. That wouldn't be a good sign. You can only cut costs so much.

Headlines from the 1930s: Sound Familiar?

It would be interesting to see the Japanese headlines circa 1991-93.

Treasury Yields Will Continue to Rise

> Yields fell at the end of last year because the market came to believe that deflation and depression were highly likely to engulf the U.S. and global economies. Now we know that those dangers were vastly over-estimated.

Hm, how do we know now that those dangers are not under-estimated? There's been too much talk about a weak US dollar and inflation lately. I think it's a fad and the dollar will get stronger again and we might see sub 3% yields on the 30-year bond by the end of the year. Think Japan. Nobody does for some reason.

It's China's World; The Rest of Us Just Live in It

I can see oil and other commodities falling off a cliff once China realizes they are the only reason prices are going up.

The Dollar Is Safe for Now

I totally agree with the article. If the downturn lasts for a couple more years, they will all come to Jesus (I mean the US dollar).
What happens eventually in 20-50 years is a different story. Nobody knows.

1100 Tonnes Now in the GLD Trust

I am waiting for the day when they'll report they have more gold than is physically available in the world. Sort of like when CSCO was going to be bigger than the US GDP.