oldgoldbug

57 Comments

    • Reading the S&P 500's Crashing Waves [view article]
      Very interesting and helpful.
      As far as declaring the bull market in gold, Prechter may yet be proven right. There is still an awful lot of deflation that may occur. The other commodities as well as mining shares are not confirming the current gold bull move. It also makes me a bit nervous to hear anecdotal evidence of physical gold unavailable to long lines of customers. There's your camping out for condos equivalent. Not that the guy in the street is always wrong - he's not. When silver hit $35 back in the day, there were enormous lines to sell the family sterling. Those folks were absolutely right. Go figure.       Oct 10 01:09 PM
    • Is Oil Demand Falling Off a Cliff? [view article]
      That chart doesn't look so good. Oct 09 03:08 PM
    • Analysts: Expecting a 30% Rally Over the Next 12 Months? [view article]
      Thank you ido :" trust me, you and everyone else doesnt KNOW a thing".
      It is all speculation, yet it is said with such conviction and certainty. I would like to hear someone say "Sorry, we blew it" but the buy recommendations keep coming as if one has an unlimited source of funds. It all has to be taken with a shaker, not a grain of salt.       Oct 06 11:44 AM
    • How Banks Hedge Counterparty Risk [view article]
      Right on copperbaron. Now the gigantic leverage employed makes sense. I guess in my simple mind it is like buying a stock, selling a call and buying a put. Theoretically you are all hedged up against loss and if you can put this position on with even a small positive return you just keep doing it, because leverage isn't seen as a danger. Especially if you are a GS, LEH(MQ) etc and can do everything really cheap. However if the stock plunges (lets just use MOS because it seemed so unlikely based on the fundamentals) and the seller of the put goes under and can't buy from you at a much higher price, your hedge just went bye, bye. Now you have to mark to the market, meet the margin call, end up long and hope for the best or sell the stock and owe your brokerage firm lots of money. Ouch.
      Gets a lot worse if you can't sell the stock or more calls, kind of like the "seized up" credit markets. Then you are stuck and hope Uncle Henry can bail you out. I think I am starting to have an inkling of what is going on.
      Ah, I love the smell of deregulation in the morning.       Oct 04 10:10 AM
    • Trying to Defend Mosaic [view article]
      So many scams - Baldwin United deferred annuities yielding 14% guaranteed for 3 years when long govs were 10%; Petro Lewis buying offshore drilling platforms instead of stripper wells, real estate investment LP's that cost Paine Webber alone $500 Million and now the hedge funds. There is always going to be somebody like GS ahead of the curve and then letting the other players pick up the pieces. Much like Mr. Paulson has done: help create the problem, make $500 million ++++ tax free, and then be part of the clean up. BTW, I wonder how much he will command in the free market after the regime change in January? $100 million a year? $300 million? More? I love this country! Oct 04 09:43 AM
    • What the Hedge Funds' Bad September Could Mean for Markets [view article]
      Explains some of the relentless selling - everybody in the same stocks and no one to take the other side. Really do wonder how much more selling needs to occur to satisfy redemptions. Oct 03 04:29 PM
    • Drowning in Illiquidity [view article]
      ping_kong : yeah whatever you said I agree! Seriously, you seem know your stuff; keep posting (but put some explanations in for the mortals here). Oct 03 02:41 PM
    • Sell Signal of the Day, Greenspan Edition [view article]
      billddrummer - that was in the back of my mind too; though this market is far too interesting to spend much time on the thought. As huge as $700B is it may not be near enough. I think this is Paulson's way of priming the pump - jack up the prices and let every else mark to the market and hope it stays positive until poor John or Obama gets to deal with the mess. Oct 03 02:11 PM
    • The Financial 'F-Word' That Needs To Be Said [view article]
      How is it that "mark to the market" is the greatest thing since sliced bread when it works for you and must be changed immediately when it works against you?
      Since the author brought up the "fraud" word, let's just think about old Hank Paulson for a minute. He takes his half billion dollars in stock from GS, sells it and pays no capital gains because of a little known law that encourages qualified people to work in government at a miniscule fraction of their private sector salaries, but gives them a nice carrot as a reward. Then he comes up with a plan to buy assets with government money with no review and no legal liability. GS, MS, BAC et al are lined up to help Hank with his little project because they will get to double, triple or quadruple dip on $700 Billion. After all, aren't these the same guys that made up these investments in the first place and got paid fees and commissions to put them together and sell them? Now supposedly they will fix them?
      Come on folks, this is the most blatant fraud perpetuated on the public in a long long time. The public smells a rat and is inundating the Congress with negative opinions. They are right.
      If Warren Buffett doesn't understand these investments, I humbly suggest not many others do either. Let them fail, let the market go wherever it is going to go. We have bankruptcy laws that are good enough to handle LEH, others can participate also. Eventually entrepreneurs in each locality will buy up the houses from the bankruptcy courts, fix them up, sell them at reasonable prices or rent them out. Intervention in this process by the government is unnecessary and counterproductive.
      People working in governments seldom get it right because if they could they would be making part of the $66 Billion paid to the employees of the investment banking companies in 2007. These are the people that are going to set prices?? Good luck.       Oct 02 11:26 AM
    • Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold [view article]
      SWRichmond - For a long while I thought the most logical reason for the Iraq war was to disrupt oil supplies and push prices higher, given the damage occurring to pipelines during a war. Your thesis makes far more sense and explains why the neocons were so willing to jump into a manufactured war. The rise of the Iranian "threat" provides a very convenient excuse for our forces to remain in the region.
      It sure did seem to me that oil's movements were related more to moves by hedge funds than anything else. Now that hedge fund redemptions are beginning in earnest it will be interesting to see how the price of oil holds up.
      By the way, with the huge amounts of dollars floating around out there, it might even be difficult for really big players to move in and out of the gold market without totally disrupting it. I would think the oil market is far bigger and able to absorb money more readily.       Oct 01 11:04 AM
    • Naked Shorting Rule Means Time To Buy Stocks [view article]
      Hmm, guess the market missed the all out buy signal.
      Sep 29 04:38 PM
    • The U.S. Banking System is Effectively Insolvent [view article]
      The whole charade of consumerism, multiple homes, $100000 cars on lease, Madison Avenue inspired wants and "needs", farm subsidies, tobacco subsidies, etc etc etc is ripe for elimination. The charade of George W. Bush is over - his legacy as the worst President ever is secure. Let us hope Dividends Anonymous is right and this economic meltdown will presage 70 years of real growth like the Great Depression. Our inheritance from our hard working forefathers has been squandered; we will have to rebuild for our children and grandchildren. Of course, in today's world there is only the "now" and the "me"; the future be hanged. Evidently bills of the future are coming due now. Sep 29 04:28 PM
    • Wall Street Bailout: Making a Deal With the Devil [view article]
      Well said. Sep 28 12:47 PM
    • The Fed Has Made the Entire U.S. a Hedge Fund - Get Your Portfolio Ready [view article]
      otbricki - Good point about gold being an alternative currency. Even though the gold supply is relatively small, it does act as an effective counterbalance, absorbing dollars at different price levels, giving those of us who believe in such things a fairly good gauge of just "how bad" or "how good" things are and in what direction they are heading. Of course it is probably prone to manipulation by miners, governments, hedge funds and entities I don't even know about but in the end you can still plop it on the counter and get cash. That is not be denigrated. Sep 28 12:37 PM
    • Bailout: Reaching a Deal [view article]
      young retired guy - that approach has been in the back of my mind for awhile, thanks for putting it out there. The probable reason it isn't being implemented is that it is too simple and doesn't involve making or losing gobs of money.
      Maybe what's going on is a nifty little combo pack based on charles hopfl's post - get some big bucks to GS, MS, BAC et al to manage this charade, give the downward spiraling instruments an artificial floor, and stop having to mark everything to a declining market. Paulson may be a really good and sharp guy, but the leopard doesn't change its spots. He's got to see this as a great opportunity to make some serious bucks especially with a giant checkbook. I only hope he's making it for the taxpayers who are putting up the money.       Sep 28 12:07 PM
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