oldgoldbug

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+12 / -1

81 Comments

    • Sat Sep 20th 10:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Only the End of the Beginning
      So now its "heads I win", "tails I don't lose". Take wild risks, make lots of money, head for the exits and let the next poor CEO schmuck take the hit. It just bugs me that we are "rescuing" profit making enterprises. No more risk reward, just reward.
      We did make it out of the RTC mess so maybe these rescue efforts have a chance to work.
      When the Treasury sells T-bills to the Fed so they can perform their rescues, isn't that inflationary? Doesn't the Fed create new money to pay for them? Will the Fed have to create billions/trillions of dollars to fund all the rescues? Just wondering.
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    • Fri Sep 19th 03:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Could the Unthinkable Happen in Today's Markets?
      All those "wackos" who said gold would go to $5000 or $10000 or any other crazy number you care to quote were always dismissed out of hand. "Can't Happen". Well, I hope not but what is happening recently with all the government takeovers makes me think that precious metals will be the last bastion of freedom and independence from governmental control. The eventual value of the metals is almost irrelevant as we have no idea how much money must be printed for the government to make good on all its guarantees. The late and sorely missed Harry Browne, when talking about hyperinflation in Germany in the 20's pointed out that the government never missed a payment on its bonds; holders had to pick them up because the stamps were worth more than the payments. How are Paulson and Bernanke more qualified than the heads of these corporations to run them?? Let them fail, let Buffett and other cash rich conservative businessmen buy what they want and let the system take care of the rest. Otherwise the eventual failure will bring down the government and the system. I really hope I am very wrong.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 02:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Branding Problem
      I hope the commentators are right but I get the eerie feeling the author has nailed it. At least the Feds threw AIG the lifeline so we won't have to find out right away if Cramer is correct about AIG being the cornerstone of the free world's economic system. Of course, -449 and +80 are sobering stats even for the oldgoldbug. It would be really nice if the close below 10800 is a head fake and a good rally comes out of the ashes of the Phoenix.
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    • Tue Sep 16th 14:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Thoughts on Current Market Weakness
      Well reasoned analysis. I would add LT support at 10800 successfully tested again (so far) on 9/16/08. Would agree that recognition of a bottom after it is in still leaves a good amount of upside without nearly so much risk.
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    • Sun Sep 14th 08:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Go for the Gold
      User 244150 - Thank you. I wondered when somebody would speak up about all the bulls who apparently have been able to endure this onslaught with such aplomb. "Don't worry, buy more". WITH WHAT? Who recommended selling at anywhere near the top to be able to put money in this market now? No one. What happened to GRMN at 124? Oops, its 33 now. Probably a stock to consider almost 100 points lower.
      It still bothers me that the long Government market is at 4%+/-. It may be that market is the only one able to contain the amount of money coming out of long liquidation of institutional portfolio therefore it is unusually strong in the face of high inflation or is it saying "deflation, deflation, deflation." I guess we will find out soon enough.
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    • Sat Sep 13th 10:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman's Risk Management Strategy May Have Caused the Problems
      Thank you to author and commentators who are obviously very knowledgeable. The amount of information available at a mouse click is simply astounding.
      Right now I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen more casualties in the hedgies from the massive crash in commodities. It would seem that they would be highly leveraged as well. Perhaps the liquidity in those markets helped them dodge the bullet.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Reasons Why Apple's Still a Buy
      $300? or $50? - could go either way
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    • Tue Sep 9th 10:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pondering the 'Pain of Paying'
      The point I got from the analysis is that a movement to paying with debit cards indicates less willingness to spend and a reduction in credit lines leaves the consumer with less real buying power. The next logical step might be the consumer paying with actual cash. That would be a return to the old style of budgeting, i.e. "if you don't have the cash to pay for it you don't need it."
      My understanding is that consumer spending has led us out of most of the recessions/slowdowns occurring post WWII. Anything that reduces consumer spending or negatively impacts buying power will have a negative impact on the ability of the consumer to spend us out of a slowdown.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 12:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Challenges in Gold Mining
      Wow! traderstaff "...just buy the paper stuff" OK, take the paper to the coin store and get cash. Oops, doesn't work. Gold (and to some degree silver) are the ultimate insurance policies. Today we take over Freddie and Fannie because the wheels are coming off the system; what will happen tomorrow? If everything continues to work then trading paper will be fine. If the system crashes or locks up (lots of people around who remember the bank holiday in the 1930's) you will need to have both cash and precious metals just to get through each day. When the capitalist system wipes out excess capacity for the purpose of moving productive assets into other uses, it can be a very messy experience. We want it to be easy, pretty and pain free - it isn't. Those who had capital to get into the game when the Dow hit 50+/- in the 30's have probably done OK. And remember, one of the keys to the revival of the economy was the arbitrary increase of the price of gold from $20 per ounce to $35. Physical gold's buying power was increased 70% at the stroke of a pen. Of course, the government forbid the owning of gold as well but I'm sure plenty was squirreled away "just in case".
      I would recommend we all have some precious metals and cash put away "just in case".
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    • Wed Sep 3rd 11:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Futures' Dirty Secret (Part I)
      Perhaps physical buyers have a much longer time horizon and see an opportunity to pick up coins at a 25-30% discount from recent highs. I know its hard for speculators to fathom, but there are some folks who aren't looking for a quick buck (i.e. my friend who holds Standard Oil of New Jersey stock from 1948). Needless to say its been a fairly good long term holding.
      Should gold go ballistic over the next 10 years, the question of whether you paid $800 or $500 or $1030 will likely be a moot point. We must always remember that gold simply IS - it does not owe its value to any government or entity. Given the messes we are looking at across the board from Iraq to the mortgage meltdown, to the dollar disaster, owning physical gold makes eminently good sense, just as owning some Treasuries makes good sense. None of us know which way this financial situation will resolve itself so covering as many bases as you can to preserve your long term assets is a sound investment strategy.
      For whatever its worth, most of the really wealthy people I know are not short term traders so Paul&Shark and whatever, keep in mind that some investors rode the silver market all the way down from $50 and never missed a meal or a European cruise. Its all a matter of perspective.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 14:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stocks with the Highest Short Interest
      Sorry last sentence should be:
      The long interest is the float. High short % presumably increases buying interest above normal trading volumes.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 14:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stocks with the Highest Short Interest
      Shorted stocks supposedly are borrowed from longs via the longs' brokers and sold. (I say supposedly because naked shorting has become quite the fashion but I will let more sophisticated traders tell us how that works.) The short speculator or arbitrager has cash and owes the long the stock. Should the stock go down, the short purchases it on the open market and returns the stock to the long. The difference is the profit. Should the stock go up, the short must repurchase at a loss and replace. Thus the % of the stock float sold short shows you how much potential pent-up buying exists in a given security. If the shorts are wrong about a stock, their buying tacked on to normal buying can result in excessive movements to the upside.
      Thus the float is the long interest plus the short covering potential.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 11:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks?
      Swing trading is great and someday I hope to be as successful at it as Paul&Shark..... but for long term money that you can't afford to lose, the author pretty much hits the nail on the head. As we used to say back in the day "hold your nose and buy it". Everything looks absolutely dismal for precious metals except their price. Not to say they won't go down from here, but this is a much better place to buy than $1030. If you think gold has 4 digits in it with a leading 2 or better, even $1030 won't look so bad 3 years from now. Good luck to all, if it was easy we'd all be rich.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 16:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Should I Own Gold?
      Having been along for the ride from near the beginning (1960's anyway) when Uncle Sam started minting the clad coins (1965) and silver was about 70 cents an ounce, I can honestly say that one of the great advantages of gold and silver is that they will always be worth something. There will always be somebody that will exchange paper currency for your gold American Eagle, your silver quarter, your one ounce Sunshine silver round, etc. Then you can go to Safeway and buy some groceries. As so many of us who have tried to sell real estate recently have found out, liquidity is a remarkably wonderful thing.
      Add to the illiquidity of real estate the high cost of asset transfer and the inadequate pricing mechanism and we see where a little physical gold and silver can be comforting assets.
      Precious metals are not alway countercyclical to stocks. I believe from 1980 to 1983 or thereabouts, gold and stocks both rose with gold perhaps rising more percentagewise. When it became clear that hyper inflation was not about to occur, gold fell back and stocks started setting the stage for the massive bull market of the 90's while gold and silver made a pretty good sized trading range.
      What seems to be a little different this time around is the low interest rate on long government bonds. If a major deflation occurs then that 4% +/- yield on govies looks pretty doggone good. If some of the blogs I've read are correct, bond returns have been very competitive with stocks over the past 10 years. So, I agree with the comment that owning several classes of assets is a pretty good idea and selling some of the winners and buying some of the losers over longer periods of time will probably work out reasonably well and reduce both market and inflation (deflation) risks.
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    • Sun Aug 24th 11:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looming Financial Catastrophe: A Real Inconvenient Truth
      Great article. I think $4.00 gas did more in a few months to get everyone's attention and get the idea of change going. I believe we have reached the tipping point toward energy conservation. Regardless of why the price of oil went so high, it did and it hit everyone pretty hard. The extent of the "demand destruction" was unexpected. I think the only hope we have is that massive behavioral changes triggered by exorbitant energy prices will have the positive effects needed as outlined by the author. That is the system's great advantage- the free movement of capital in response to perceived greater returns in new endeavors does not permit linear extrapolation of current trends (major disaster) to occur.
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