oldgoldbug

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

Well written. Good to see you put some real numbers to the projections. I might humbly disagree on the Dow/S&P:Gold relationship as I would guess a tripling in the stock averages would likely indicate a 10X -20X increase in gold. Of course, no one knows and it hardly matters as the direction of movement and the relationships are the key.
Considering the mass decline of commodities and commodity stocks, and the sardine like packing of investors in Treasury obligations, a massive inflation would surely be unexpected save by wild eyed bloggers.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

To richjoy - amen. the consequences of being wrong are so enormous that unless you have a printing press in the basement it will change your life for a long time. Diversification with money you cannot afford to lose is crucial.
BTW, given $875+ gold and $120+ oil, why aren't interest rates on long UST bonds way, way higher? One would think the bond market is forecasting a recession/depression. If that happens, where do commodity and overall stock prices go?






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In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

My meandering Vietnam era mind wondered if the real reason we went into Iraq was not to take over the oil (although the mega embassy argues against that) but to disrupt the oil flow. It seems the insurgents do a pretty good job of keeping the Iraqi oil flow limited and the Saudis do a pretty good job of keeping supply shut in. Of course, having a real fighting force of 140,000 +/- American soldiers keeps the Iranians at bay for the time being - it seems to me thats why we put Saddam in there in the first place, to keep the Shiites out of Saudi. Anyway, oil sure has had a nice run since the beginning of the Iraq war and a couple mbd shortfall has kept the price up up up. We might now be seeing some actual elasticity of demand and less consumption as unnecessary usage is voluntarily foregone. W, as an old erl man, has probably secured his place as the greatest president of all time as far as the oil patch is concerned. McCain says we'll be there a good long time so I would expect he will get lots of contributions from the oil folks. This has worked out better than they could possibly have anticipated.