Dr. C.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/136866/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/150743-were-oil-traders-too-bullish?source=feed#comment-599261 599261
One barrel of oil (42 gallons) can yield 19.15 gallons of gasoline so it takes 2.2 barrels of crude to make 1 barrel of gasoline.

Last week 1.8 million barrel drawdown in crude was offset by an almost equal 1.8 million barrel crude equivalent increase (.8 million barrels x 2.2) in the form of gasoline.

In fact, over the last 6 weeks, crude stocks have decreased by 18.9 million barrels while gasoline stocks have increased by 13.8 million. This means the crude drawdown has been more then offset by a crude equivalent increase in gasoline stocks of 30.36 million barrels (13.8 million barrels of gasoline x 2.2 to equal crude equivalent energy inventory).

So energy inventory has seen a crude equivalent build of over 10 million barrels in the last 6 weeks.

Disclosure: short oil via DTO

see:
www.eia.doe.gov/kids/e...
tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...
tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 09:31:42 -0400
One barrel of oil (42 gallons) can yield 19.15 gallons of gasoline so it takes 2.2 barrels of crude to make 1 barrel of gasoline.

Last week 1.8 million barrel drawdown in crude was offset by an almost equal 1.8 million barrel crude equivalent increase (.8 million barrels x 2.2) in the form of gasoline.

In fact, over the last 6 weeks, crude stocks have decreased by 18.9 million barrels while gasoline stocks have increased by 13.8 million. This means the crude drawdown has been more then offset by a crude equivalent increase in gasoline stocks of 30.36 million barrels (13.8 million barrels of gasoline x 2.2 to equal crude equivalent energy inventory).

So energy inventory has seen a crude equivalent build of over 10 million barrels in the last 6 weeks.

Disclosure: short oil via DTO

see:
www.eia.doe.gov/kids/e...
tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...
tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148234-how-30-barrel-oil-could-save-the-world?source=feed#comment-584124 584124
If you want to see what the results of a artificially constrained oil supply look like, research the oil shocks of the 1970’s.]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 08:02:51 -0400
If you want to see what the results of a artificially constrained oil supply look like, research the oil shocks of the 1970’s.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147602-game-over-for-u-s-oil-natural-gas-etfs?source=feed#comment-578562 578562
Sure HOPE these opportunities don't go away.]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:48:30 -0400
Sure HOPE these opportunities don't go away.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147602-game-over-for-u-s-oil-natural-gas-etfs?source=feed#comment-578546 578546 I'm extremely happy with both DXO and DTO. Was in the first for a 100%+ ride and now in the second with current a position at 30%+.

Sure don't hope these opportunities don't go away.

RE:
"The only people who benefit from this scheme are the ETF issuers who collect the fees, and the speculators who actually play the futures markets properly."]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:41:13 -0400 I'm extremely happy with both DXO and DTO. Was in the first for a 100%+ ride and now in the second with current a position at 30%+.

Sure don't hope these opportunities don't go away.

RE:
"The only people who benefit from this scheme are the ETF issuers who collect the fees, and the speculators who actually play the futures markets properly."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121702-buffett-grantham-and-china-what-the-savers-are-buying?source=feed#comment-399388 399388
That’s a lot of oil to work through before oil prices can move up more than 10% or 15%. "

----------------------...
note: that 80 million barrels won't cover the world's needs for a single day.



]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:47:22 -0500
That’s a lot of oil to work through before oil prices can move up more than 10% or 15%. "

----------------------...
note: that 80 million barrels won't cover the world's needs for a single day.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114754-crude-reality-how-long-can-oil-stay-down?source=feed#comment-356969 356969
Yes, there are tankers being hired to act as floating storage facilities. How much oil is stored at sea?

"Oil companies and traders are storing 80 million barrels of crude oil at sea, the most in at least 20 years, according to Jens Martin Jensen, interim chief executive of the management unit of Frontline Ltd., the world's largest supertanker owner."

This article also states that...

"The cost of hiring supertankers to collect crude oil from the Middle East jumped as the biggest oil-storage program at sea in at least two decades eliminated the supply of ships available for deliveries."

Source:
www.canada.com/calgary...

So this suggests that the 80 million barrels is just about the maximum tanker storage space available and the cost of leasing these ships are rising.




So how much is 80 million barrels of crude?

EIA estimates global demand for 2009 to be about 86 mbd.

Source:
uk.reuters.com/article...


So we see that the "Vast number of tankers full of oil" won't hold enough oil for 1 days' global consumption.

Sorry - I'm still not convinced that the current "glut" will have a significant impact on price over the next year or two.

I may be wrong - but then, I may be right.

I'm long DXO with a 1-2 year planned holding period
Most of the position was put in place on days oil traded below $40






On Jan 15 08:58 AM Mmarrkk wrote:

> Dr. C: look offshore! Vast number of tankers full of oil are sitting
> on the high seas. ]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 16:54:51 -0500
Yes, there are tankers being hired to act as floating storage facilities. How much oil is stored at sea?

"Oil companies and traders are storing 80 million barrels of crude oil at sea, the most in at least 20 years, according to Jens Martin Jensen, interim chief executive of the management unit of Frontline Ltd., the world's largest supertanker owner."

This article also states that...

"The cost of hiring supertankers to collect crude oil from the Middle East jumped as the biggest oil-storage program at sea in at least two decades eliminated the supply of ships available for deliveries."

Source:
www.canada.com/calgary...

So this suggests that the 80 million barrels is just about the maximum tanker storage space available and the cost of leasing these ships are rising.




So how much is 80 million barrels of crude?

EIA estimates global demand for 2009 to be about 86 mbd.

Source:
uk.reuters.com/article...


So we see that the "Vast number of tankers full of oil" won't hold enough oil for 1 days' global consumption.

Sorry - I'm still not convinced that the current "glut" will have a significant impact on price over the next year or two.

I may be wrong - but then, I may be right.

I'm long DXO with a 1-2 year planned holding period
Most of the position was put in place on days oil traded below $40






On Jan 15 08:58 AM Mmarrkk wrote:

> Dr. C: look offshore! Vast number of tankers full of oil are sitting
> on the high seas. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114754-crude-reality-how-long-can-oil-stay-down?source=feed#comment-356152 356152
here's an interesting set of numbers

at the end of December 2006, the US had a 20.7 day supply of oil on hand
at the end of December 2007, the US had a 19.0 day supply of oil on hand
at the end of December 2008, the US had a 21.9 day supply of oil on hand

these "massive stockpiles" represent just a few days use - they don't seem so big to me now

source: tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...



]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:29:54 -0500
here's an interesting set of numbers

at the end of December 2006, the US had a 20.7 day supply of oil on hand
at the end of December 2007, the US had a 19.0 day supply of oil on hand
at the end of December 2008, the US had a 21.9 day supply of oil on hand

these "massive stockpiles" represent just a few days use - they don't seem so big to me now

source: tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114507-the-price-of-oil-weak-demand-trumps-distractions?source=feed#comment-354726 354726
see www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/i...

the latest global demand number for Q3 2008 is 84.73 mbd

down from the annual average of 85.90 mbd in 2007
a decrease of .77% from the 2007 average

not much demand destruction yet - maybe it all happened in Q4

but it seems that everyday I read about another oil project or expansion being delayed
]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:18:14 -0500
see www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/i...

the latest global demand number for Q3 2008 is 84.73 mbd

down from the annual average of 85.90 mbd in 2007
a decrease of .77% from the 2007 average

not much demand destruction yet - maybe it all happened in Q4

but it seems that everyday I read about another oil project or expansion being delayed
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112972-best-performance-in-2008-mattresses?source=feed#comment-344083 344083 ]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 09:16:59 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112957-60-a-barrel-oil-in-2009?source=feed#comment-344076 344076
or, if not trade to $80, then trade above $60 for an extended period of time to offset the lower prices at the start of the year.]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 09:08:31 -0500
or, if not trade to $80, then trade above $60 for an extended period of time to offset the lower prices at the start of the year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112957-60-a-barrel-oil-in-2009?source=feed#comment-344069 344069
So the forecasts are essentially implying a 100% rise between bottom to top during the year.

A nice trade.....]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 09:04:39 -0500
So the forecasts are essentially implying a 100% rise between bottom to top during the year.

A nice trade.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99090-the-beginning-of-the-endgame-for-monetary-policy-redux?source=feed#comment-277374 277374
while it's a great quote, source is questionable. see....

see: www.americanvision.org...

"Then there’s the attribution of the following citation to historian Alexander Fraser Tytler (or Tyler) (1747–1813). It supports what many believe are important political observations, but is it authentic? Can it be found in any of the works of Alexander Tytler?:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.

Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.

Like the dubious James Madison quotation, the Tytler extract is cited on a regular basis and often finds its way into published works.5 While there was an Alexander Tytler, there is no extant evidence that puts these words in his mouth or in any of his published works. Supposedly it can be found in a book supposedly written by Tytler that goes by the title The Fall of the Athenian Republic or The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic. There is no such book in circulation or attributed to him. Others claim that the quotation can be located in Tytler’s Elements of General History: Ancient and Modern, a book that does exist. The following response from the library of the University of Edinburgh states that their research has shown that the quotation does not appear in the library’s holdings of Tytler’s books:

Edinburgh University Library occasionally receives enquiries, particularly from North America, about this particular work. However, this title is not in our Library holdings, nor does it appear in the stocks of the other major research libraries in the United Kingdom. . . . Locally, the chapters of Tytler’s General History . . . (which we DO have) has been checked on the off-chance that The Decline and Fall [of the Athenian Republic] might have been a chapter title . . . but it is not. . . . We have scanned our holdings pretty thoroughly on different occasions, going back a few years now, but we have not found the quotation or anything similar to it, but we cannot absolutely rule out the possibility that we have missed it.6

Even the United States Library of Congress has been called in on the search with no success in finding the much cited but elusive quotation. Even so, the Madison and Tytler quotations continue to circulate as authentic history. Here’s the lesson to be learned: If there are so many who are willing to accept the authenticity of historical citations with something less than a shred of evidence, then it shouldn’t surprise us when students accept historical accounts found in textbooks and scholarly journals that have about the same amount of evidentiary support. The difference, however, is that so much of what finds its way into textbooks and popular works of history affect the way Christianity and the Bible are portrayed. It’s one thing to be wrong about a few unsupported quotations; it’s another thing to reshape a school curriculum based on fabricated history that relegates the Bible to the dust bin of history. "

----------------------...
just thought readers might be interested.....//]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:06:50 -0400
while it's a great quote, source is questionable. see....

see: www.americanvision.org...

"Then there’s the attribution of the following citation to historian Alexander Fraser Tytler (or Tyler) (1747–1813). It supports what many believe are important political observations, but is it authentic? Can it be found in any of the works of Alexander Tytler?:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.

Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.

Like the dubious James Madison quotation, the Tytler extract is cited on a regular basis and often finds its way into published works.5 While there was an Alexander Tytler, there is no extant evidence that puts these words in his mouth or in any of his published works. Supposedly it can be found in a book supposedly written by Tytler that goes by the title The Fall of the Athenian Republic or The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic. There is no such book in circulation or attributed to him. Others claim that the quotation can be located in Tytler’s Elements of General History: Ancient and Modern, a book that does exist. The following response from the library of the University of Edinburgh states that their research has shown that the quotation does not appear in the library’s holdings of Tytler’s books:

Edinburgh University Library occasionally receives enquiries, particularly from North America, about this particular work. However, this title is not in our Library holdings, nor does it appear in the stocks of the other major research libraries in the United Kingdom. . . . Locally, the chapters of Tytler’s General History . . . (which we DO have) has been checked on the off-chance that The Decline and Fall [of the Athenian Republic] might have been a chapter title . . . but it is not. . . . We have scanned our holdings pretty thoroughly on different occasions, going back a few years now, but we have not found the quotation or anything similar to it, but we cannot absolutely rule out the possibility that we have missed it.6

Even the United States Library of Congress has been called in on the search with no success in finding the much cited but elusive quotation. Even so, the Madison and Tytler quotations continue to circulate as authentic history. Here’s the lesson to be learned: If there are so many who are willing to accept the authenticity of historical citations with something less than a shred of evidence, then it shouldn’t surprise us when students accept historical accounts found in textbooks and scholarly journals that have about the same amount of evidentiary support. The difference, however, is that so much of what finds its way into textbooks and popular works of history affect the way Christianity and the Bible are portrayed. It’s one thing to be wrong about a few unsupported quotations; it’s another thing to reshape a school curriculum based on fabricated history that relegates the Bible to the dust bin of history. "

----------------------...
just thought readers might be interested.....//]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80327-thursday-was-a-huge-day-for-this-market?source=feed#comment-180602 180602
disclosure: still long SKF]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 17:14:07 -0400
disclosure: still long SKF]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70471-a-far-cry-from-hooverville?source=feed#comment-134072 134072 www.shadowstats.com/ar... and www.shadowstats.com/al... .]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:27:21 -0400 www.shadowstats.com/ar... and www.shadowstats.com/al... .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70357-investor-sentiment-and-market-returns-now-s-the-time-to-be-bold?source=feed#comment-133364 133364 Sat, 29 Mar 2008 09:25:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66794-time-to-get-serious-about-utilizing-short-etfs?source=feed#comment-121408 121408
Been in and out of SKF, SRS, a few times since December. Back in last week when both SKF and SRS around $105 and Gasparino was floating his tales. Also into QID.

Plan is to stay short 6-12 months for the big leg down then move into DBA and GLD long term.
]]> Mon, 03 Mar 2008 08:06:35 -0500
Been in and out of SKF, SRS, a few times since December. Back in last week when both SKF and SRS around $105 and Gasparino was floating his tales. Also into QID.

Plan is to stay short 6-12 months for the big leg down then move into DBA and GLD long term.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66657-inflation-s-power-the-dollar-in-25-years?source=feed#comment-120837 120837
Since the late 1960's the $ has lost about 90% of it's value - on average, prices have increased by a factor of about 10x. Over the same period, average household income has increased by a factor of about 7x - and in the 1960's most households were single earning households. Today most households have two earners. So even the shift to dual income households has not kept household income rising fast enough to keep up with rising prices.

If you're collecting social security or military retirement benefits (or plan to before the country goes bankrupt and defaults), increases in benefits (cola or cost of living adjustments) are calculated based on the understated official CPI. Since the official CPI annually understates the true inflation rate (and has for 25 years) current (and future) benefit levels have not risen fast enough to match rising prices. see www.shadowstats.com/ar... for a discussion of this.

I also highly recommend the link to the David Walker video that talktowen posted - here is another.
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Sound investing now in commodities and real money (gold) will help you increase your wealth but if you think the next 30 years will look anything at all like the halcyon years we've experienced in the last 30 years you are in for a rude shock. We are in for some serious problems.
]]> Fri, 29 Feb 2008 20:23:23 -0500
Since the late 1960's the $ has lost about 90% of it's value - on average, prices have increased by a factor of about 10x. Over the same period, average household income has increased by a factor of about 7x - and in the 1960's most households were single earning households. Today most households have two earners. So even the shift to dual income households has not kept household income rising fast enough to keep up with rising prices.

If you're collecting social security or military retirement benefits (or plan to before the country goes bankrupt and defaults), increases in benefits (cola or cost of living adjustments) are calculated based on the understated official CPI. Since the official CPI annually understates the true inflation rate (and has for 25 years) current (and future) benefit levels have not risen fast enough to match rising prices. see www.shadowstats.com/ar... for a discussion of this.

I also highly recommend the link to the David Walker video that talktowen posted - here is another.
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Sound investing now in commodities and real money (gold) will help you increase your wealth but if you think the next 30 years will look anything at all like the halcyon years we've experienced in the last 30 years you are in for a rude shock. We are in for some serious problems.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66657-inflation-s-power-the-dollar-in-25-years?source=feed#comment-120662 120662 shadowstats.com/altern... . This rate takes that future buying power down to about $40 in today's $'s.

(sorry about this double post - somehow I posted under someone else's name above)]]> Fri, 29 Feb 2008 11:10:58 -0500 shadowstats.com/altern... . This rate takes that future buying power down to about $40 in today's $'s.

(sorry about this double post - somehow I posted under someone else's name above)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66657-inflation-s-power-the-dollar-in-25-years?source=feed#comment-120660 120660 www.shadowstats.com/al... . This rate takes that future buying power down to about $40 in today's $'s.]]> Fri, 29 Feb 2008 11:08:53 -0500 www.shadowstats.com/al... . This rate takes that future buying power down to about $40 in today's $'s.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59228-ron-paul-supporters-claim-hand-in-news-corp-rout?source=feed#comment-108674 108674 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 08:28:10 -0500