Maniac in Motion

Total Rating:
0 / 0

22 Comments

    • Fri Mar 21st 05:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alan Greenspan Loses His Mind
      Credit derivatives.

      What the gov't needs now and in the future is an FDA-like regulatory staff to approve new financial products to enter the market. Without such a body, financial institutions lean themselves progressively to Russian roulette type bets.

      Let's imagine, for a moment, the pharmaceuticals industry without the FDA. Like so, new financial products entering the market with minimal regulation like MBS and the credit derivatives markets run rampant on reckless product innovation to bolster bank fees and commissions. That's what it's all about, isn't it? New revenue channels to engender more lucrative commissions?

      Investment bankers are just salespeople with a finance glossary. Their job was never to decide an investor's risk appetite, it is only to sell investors more stuff more often to book more profits in fees.

      The investor doesn't give them a commission, Goldman Sachs does.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 21:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Stearns Saga and the Fed's Dilemna
      Woooooooooooooow... news just out JPM buys BSC @ $2/share per the WSJ. And BSC closed Friday @ $30. Wooooooooooow, talk about payday for those BSC puts.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 15:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Stearns Saga and the Fed's Dilemna
      Any deal JPM would get would likely by at a very steep discount.

      The buy won't consider current revenue streams, it's all about the losses JPM will swallow from taking BSC under its wing. And the losses incurred by MBS exposure may likely be partially tax-deductible if JPM works it right with government begging JPM to do so.

      Companies buy other companies at a premium when they see a synergy. There's no synergy here. It's less a takeover and more a takeunder. A JPM/BSC acquisition is less about winning synergies and more about keeping global financial markets from needing a defibrillator.

      CLEAR! :$
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 15:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Pillars of Inflation
      The article is a great argument. I saw a chart where historically commodity prices were way below benchmark compared to the S&P. And that is due to disinflation. I think it will go back to its benchmark less because of rising commodity prices and more from an S&P index correction.

      That said, many of the commodity prices are rising becaus of the dollar devaluation. If oil were to, in a monumental OPEC announcement, be depegged from the US dollar, it would be good news for oil consumers, and bad news for the US.

      The dollar has been resilient to depreciate much more quickly because so much has been pegged to it over the last 3 decades. However, it was only done so with the assumption that a strong dollar would alway be a strong dollar. That's why the Secretary and the President say they continue to support a strong dollar policy. Of course, what a politician says and what his central banker does are evidently 2 different things. To support a strong dollar, the Fed should be raising rates, be damned the consequences. That was the Volcker method, and he gave confidence to world markets even if he wasn't Mr October at home.

      There's a saying that sounds much better in Spanish, but loosely translates like this: "Between the things you do and the things you say, I see a widening gap today."
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 15:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is $3.25 Gas Helping Harley Davidson?
      HOG is the complete opposite of any inflation play one would want to take. HOG sells a product based on considerable disposable income. HOG is not green. Although it has 70 miles/gallon, that's 70 miles/gallon for one person. What about your wife and 3 kids Protestant? One must consider cost to travel per person. Moreover, it's easy to double sales if he increased sales from 3 bikes to 6 bikes. It still doesn't answer how he will clear the other 100 bikes collecting dust on his lot.

      We are in a recession being considered more and more like the 1930's. And with a Bear Stearns government bailout, the unfolding events make me think economists will no longer just joke around with words. The cash-strapped consumer is not likely to put her 5 year-old daughter on the back of a Harley to visit Big Lots. A family would likely rather buy a smaller compact vehicle because everyone can get in, and the cost to buy a compact car is cheaper than buying a self-serving Harley.

      HOG suffers from a "Love the company hate the stock" sentiment. I'm sorry captain, gotta think with your wallet, not with your heart.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 22:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the Fed's Move Prevent a Stock Market Panic?
      It gives hedge funds an opportunity to quietly lock in profits and deleverage slowly without creating an unwinding panic in equities markets, and leave taxpaying folks with their 401k's fully invested to watch the market crash.

      Then hedge funds will move into commodities to further tax the people with "inflation."

      Meanwhile, the government will use taxpayer dollars to keep they're friends on life support in the public interest while investment banks unload depreciating private mortgage-backed debt securities like they're magical collateral assets in a clear case of alchemy.

      Although a BSC insolvency notice would have engendered a domino series of margin calls to the hedge funds associated with BSC, the time-delaying save only slows the market downturn momentum giving the hedge funds more time to quietly deleverage away from equities. Funds of funds will get out to lock in 5 years' worth of profits, and only taxpayers will be left with crippled 401k's denominated in devalued dollars when the market crash finally arrives... it's admittedly a very smart economic system for a few.

      The market will wind down to the same place, although they're just using taxpayer dollars with term-auction facilities and devaluing the dollar with rate cuts to give hedge funds more time to comfortably deleverage. Would you prefer another espresso, Sir?

      \
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 7th 19:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold's Run: Increased Demand, or ETF Proliferation?
      The GLD ETF can be viewed as an awesome phenomenon because it helps diversify a portfolio with a commodity that the typical investor would not own otherwise. The value placed on it (not necessarily only in the US) across global banks like the Netherlands, China and Japan help maintain a strong support level, and in the long-run the ETF can help maintain that support. However, it's short-run parabolic momentum can also add significant volatility in the future to a commodity that was previously viewed as stable because of its liquidity.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»