How Bill Ackman Lost $600M Investing In Procter & Gamble [View article]
Ackman deserves credit for pushing out a terrible CEO at PG. At the same time I find what he did with HLF as manipulative and probably illegal.
It isnt good for investors if a large hedge fund with poor returns near year end broadcasts that a company is going out of business as a ponzi scheme. It was an effort a share price manipulation. Any other investor would have the SEC all over them if they tried that.
The Fed Is Between A Bubble And A Hard Place [View article]
The Fed has managed the money supply well since the crash. As the velocity of money crashed after the housing collapse huge money supply increase was needed to prevent the normal collapse deflation. Now that housing is returning it is time to begin another readjustment and the Fed is in the process of signalling the change. PS - nothing is more scripted than any discussion about futute Fed moves.
Household Net Worth: The 'Real' Story [View article]
The change in Net Worth is bifurcated. For investors NW has climbed rapidly while for others the change is muted at best.
Thus the mean is higher but the median would have much less gain.
For investors those who have sold since 2009 have been losers, but it is increasingly likely the market will give back some of those gains at some point in the future.
Why IBM Is Not An Obsolete Investment [View article]
Enjoyed the article!
My eyes were opened with a 5% revenue drop last quarter. I previously didnt think it was possible for IBM to lose that much business in a quarter.
The biggest concern however is the "positioning itself to be a leader in future trillion dollar industries" statement.
It is not clear that Smarter Planet and Watson will have any significant impact on the future. I am not saying they wont but they are marketing aspirations and monetization in a meaningful way is a crapshoot.
Then comes the question of how much you pay for a 10MM slice of business in a 100 billion company?
IBM has been a great investment for a decade and I havent given up on it. It is a great collection of cash flow businesses.
My point is one cant ignor 2013 focusing only on desired sales in the year 2030. Any interest in 2030 will be gone if another 5% drop in revenue occurs.
Is Intel Corporation More Than Just A Pretty Dividend? [View article]
I tend not to invest in stocks like INTC where a leap of faith is required instead of hard results. However a combination of circumstances have me making an exception on INTC. Here are some reasons
1) INTC has a history of developing technology into the best in category for 30 years. They are investing heavily in making that happen.
2) Not a single investor in the world is unaware of the PC business and its prospects which is priced in giving INTC value
On the other hand!
I am not a believer that INTC will ever have the kind of domination it has enjoyed with MSFT in the PC business.
Bank Of America: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
For dividend and dividend growth investors BAC is interesting to consider. One has to believe that BAC will be paying a rapidly growing future dividend of $1.00 - $3.00.
Just roughly estimating a 2014 dividend of $0.10 per quarter would be $0.40 and a 3% return from current price.
2015 dividend of $0.60 would be approx 4.5% yield over current share price
2016 dividend of $0.80 would be approx 6.0% yield over current share price
Do your own research and come up with conservative reasonable dividend estimates!
Bank Of America: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
Enjoyed the article!
BAC is greatly undervalued and I am overweighted in it. The legal risks are rapidly declining with positive pressure on the stock price.
The earnings growth should be positive as BAC reduces an army of employees dealing with mortgage issues in addition to the settlements.
Most of all it is important to understand the earning power of the BAC franchises. In 2007 it was paying a $2.56 dividend and traded at a high of 55. Then add the value of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide assets.
Historically a bank like BAC gets to a point where they can declare an end to their unusual additional litigation exposure and finalize reserves. That point which is probably only months away should create a strong surge in the share price.
The Housing Rebound And Why The Fed Should Begin Tightening [View article]
Enjoyed the excellent article!
The Fed appears to be creating the discussion or climate for changing course. I suspect we have several months of this back and forth as the Fed prepares the market to receive the change. By the time they do change the trend in interest rates it will be almost anticlimatic. Also the Fed needs to cool the stock market down. Strong stock movements in one direction usually at some point create a similar opposite reaction less a baseline inflation rate. Finally one has to ask what the Fed can do to keep Real Income from falling when the interest rate does begin to rise.
How Bill Ackman Lost $600M Investing In Procter & Gamble [View article]
It isnt good for investors if a large hedge fund with poor returns near year end broadcasts that a company is going out of business as a ponzi scheme. It was an effort a share price manipulation. Any other investor would have the SEC all over them if they tried that.
A Credit Analysis For Coal Mining Companies [View article]
Thanks for the analysis
The Fed Is Between A Bubble And A Hard Place [View article]
Now that housing is returning it is time to begin another readjustment and the Fed is in the process of signalling the change.
PS - nothing is more scripted than any discussion about futute Fed moves.
Will Cisco Win With The New Router Opportunity? [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Still no institutional holdings and insiders have little stock holdings Dont they believe?
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
In the end however a market is different competing valuations forcing a price. Take IBM as an example...
- It has a low PE and is a great company
- The past year has not been typical IBM as they got a new CEO and had a revenue decline last quarter of 5%+
As a long term holder I took the opportunity to reduce my exposure to a normal weighting after years of outperformance caused an overweighting.
PS I dispute the IBM PE graph as IBM spent significant time with single digit PEs both forward and trailing in the past 5 years.
Household Net Worth: The 'Real' Story [View article]
Thus the mean is higher but the median would have much less gain.
For investors those who have sold since 2009 have been losers, but it is increasingly likely the market will give back some of those gains at some point in the future.
World Markets Weekend Update: The Worst Week Of 2013 [View article]
It is hard to find excellent original research.
Why We're Boosting Payments To High-Value Contributors [View article]
Why IBM Is Not An Obsolete Investment [View article]
My eyes were opened with a 5% revenue drop last quarter. I previously didnt think it was possible for IBM to lose that much business in a quarter.
The biggest concern however is the "positioning itself to be a leader in future trillion dollar industries" statement.
It is not clear that Smarter Planet and Watson will have any significant impact on the future. I am not saying they wont but they are marketing aspirations and monetization in a meaningful way is a crapshoot.
Then comes the question of how much you pay for a 10MM slice of business in a 100 billion company?
IBM has been a great investment for a decade and I havent given up on it. It is a great collection of cash flow businesses.
My point is one cant ignor 2013 focusing only on desired sales in the year 2030. Any interest in 2030 will be gone if another 5% drop in revenue occurs.
Is Intel Corporation More Than Just A Pretty Dividend? [View article]
1) INTC has a history of developing technology into the best in category for 30 years. They are investing heavily in making that happen.
2) Not a single investor in the world is unaware of the PC business and its prospects which is priced in giving INTC value
On the other hand!
I am not a believer that INTC will ever have the kind of domination it has enjoyed with MSFT in the PC business.
Why I'm Bullish And We Are Not In A Bubble [View article]
I will try to check out the authors blog from time to time.
Still I remain a long term traditional bull rather than a New Paradigm bull.
Bank Of America: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
Just roughly estimating a 2014 dividend of $0.10 per quarter would be $0.40 and a 3% return from current price.
2015 dividend of $0.60 would be approx 4.5% yield over current share price
2016 dividend of $0.80 would be approx 6.0% yield over current share price
Do your own research and come up with conservative reasonable dividend estimates!
Bank Of America: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
BAC is greatly undervalued and I am overweighted in it. The legal risks are rapidly declining with positive pressure on the stock price.
The earnings growth should be positive as BAC reduces an army of employees dealing with mortgage issues in addition to the settlements.
Most of all it is important to understand the earning power of the BAC franchises. In 2007 it was paying a $2.56 dividend and traded at a high of 55. Then add the value of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide assets.
Historically a bank like BAC gets to a point where they can declare an end to their unusual additional litigation exposure and finalize reserves. That point which is probably only months away should create a strong surge in the share price.
PS C also has great prospects
The Housing Rebound And Why The Fed Should Begin Tightening [View article]
The Fed appears to be creating the discussion or climate for changing course. I suspect we have several months of this back and forth as the Fed prepares the market to receive the change. By the time they do change the trend in interest rates it will be almost anticlimatic.
Also the Fed needs to cool the stock market down. Strong stock movements in one direction usually at some point create a similar opposite reaction less a baseline inflation rate.
Finally one has to ask what the Fed can do to keep Real Income from falling when the interest rate does begin to rise.