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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Sciences Faces An Uncertain Future After Patent Loss In India [View article]
    Just a few points to make

    I havent seen any valuation for 3rd world sales included in GILDs numbers as it is mostly irrelevant. In G7 countries and some others, patents will be respected.

    GILD's ttm PE after 1Q gets reported will be about 11 if EPS expectations are correct. The valuation suggests GILD will lose a large portion of its Hep C profits in the years ahead. As a GILD shareholder I am betting against that view.

    I remain bullish on GILD, its earnings and its future prospects.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Cisco Systems Belong In A Dividend Stock Portfolio? [View article]
    A few thoughts on CSCO...

    It doesnt seem to me that CSCO management should be held accountable for its shares being hugely over priced in the tech bubble. That was a function of the time and CSCO did not force investors to buy shares.

    I own a few shares of CSCO and note that over the past 10 years it has doubled its revenue and grown EPS at about a 7% rate over the past 5 years. It seems CSCO is continually threatened by obsolescence and yet keeps on chugging ahead. The forward PE of 12 reflects the uncertainty despite analysts projecting continued growth.

    Last fall I significantly scaled down my technology investments keeping a little CSCO, ORCL and a couple others. I just no longer understand most technology valuations as well as I should.

    I do admire John Chambers for guiding CSCO with vision thru what has seemed like a cyclone during the past 10 years. Perhaps I am in the minority as I have heard lots of criticism, but I dont think anyone else would have done better.

    Even today few people have a good handle on the value of CSCO!
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paychex: Q3 2015 Earnings Review, Out-Performance Should Continue [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article!

    I own and like PAYX because it is well managed, growing an excellent long term investment.

    I think I will wait to add more to my position but I do want to add to my position when the opportunity arises. Both V and ADP have been good to me over the years as well.
    Mar 29, 2015. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Buyback Or Biotech Bubble? [View article]
    a few thoughts...

    What is wrong with stock buybacks that are well planned with capital beyond LT business needs? eg Apple or Exxon. How much is Apple going to earn on $100 bil sitting in cash?

    Cyclical businesses like GM may be a different story and undoubtedly some examples of bad buybacks will emerge.

    On to biotech investing I own several mostly as long term holdings. The potential in biotech is large, hopefully as large as the value already priced in.

    Some of my favorite biotechs are up 500% - 1000% in 5 years. If you just now looking to invest in biotech you might heed the words of Mike Tyson who famously stated "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T's Return On Equity Suffered This Past Quarter Due To Decreasing Profit Margins [View article]
    Thanks to the author as I enjoyed the article!

    Stated another way T has debt rising significantly toward $100 billion which I suspect it will reach after it completes the DTV deal. It has lower profitability with increased competition and it is self liquidating with a dividend above its earnings.

    The huge investment of $21 billion annually is only able to help it maintain a relative stability which is masked by a buyout frenzy which provides nominal growth in sales.

    T will not go bankrupt, but it may have problems maintaining its dividend long term. I maintain the dividend is part return of capital and not a return of earnings hence the higher debt.

    If GOOG or another world carrier were to enter the telecom space in a big way T investors would be in trouble. That may happen with interests taken in TMUS or S.
    Mar 28, 2015. 07:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Load Up On Biogen? [View article]
    I hold BIIB as a long term holding along with GILD, AMGN, REGN, CELG and a few other biotechs. A few lazy thoughts to add...

    - BIIB isnt cheap

    - Potential can be tricky as shown by GILD which had the greatest year in biotech history in 2014 judged by product launch success yet only increased share price by about 25%.

    - Still I like growing companies and the revolutionary innovation in biotech is real, and real amazing. BIIB is one of the best.

    So what I am saying is I wouldnt buy BIIB at todays price but I wont sell either. In time given either launch success or failure an opportunity to buy at a attractive valuation will arrive. When that happens I will add to my holdings.

    The secret is BIIB is a great long term growing company. In the short term I havent a clue and essentially for all the analysis neither did the author.
    Mar 28, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gilead And AbbVie Closed The HCV Door On Merck [View article]
    The supposed 2015 competition in Hep C faded away. The consensus for new competition in 2016 dividing up the market and causing further price drops may also fade away.

    Viekira will find it hard to attain more than 10% usage. Any new competition will face a strong entrenched competitor in GILD. It is hard to believe that competitors will have a superior product. Even if that should occur at some point GILD has its next generation Hep C product in the pipeline.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I am sorry to hear of your changes. SA has been an excellent forum to share ideas for the betterment of all. I have enjoyed countless hours on SA over most of a decade.

    Unfortunately I wont be paying to read SA articles and I doubt others will sign up to pay for articles.

    My recommendation would be that you try adding some premier authors on top of the existing service so you can test the waters. Perhaps with a delay such that a month later the articles would enter a free realm.

    I hope you are as excited in another month!
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo says recent weakness is a buying opp for Gilead [View news story]
    I like the way 1Q is shaping up for GILD.

    GILD is growing and should grow throughout 2015. Perhaps competition will arrive in 2016, but it may disappear like the competition that was supposed to arrive in 2015 while GILD pumps new drugs out of its pipeline.

    Meanwhile the short term traders with big dreams are being replaced by longer term value investors. GILD would appear to rise in the near term as a rising floor pushes the stock ceiling higher. As I write 1Q will be over in 1 week and GILD will be trading at a 11.3 trailing PE based on 1Q estimates.

    I will stick with a $135 price target for 2015 and roughly a $10.00 EPS with a 13.5 PE.
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristol-Myers Is Playing Chess, Gilead And AbbVie Are Playing Checkers [View article]
    If BMY is such a great company why have they lost over 20% of their sales over the past 10 years?

    With the brilliant pharmaceutical leadership one would think they might have found a few successful drugs to introduce over the past decade.

    I recognize that BMY has some potential new drugs but a 56 PE on a company that has declined for over a decade ignors history. It might not be best to compare BMY against proven superstar companies with a track record of success.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]

    That is what makes a market! Different investors have different views.

    I find your $12.43 to be way to high for 2015 EPS and your PE expectation to be way too low.

    At least you are willing too advance an opinion that is far from any guidance or consensus. I will admit that 2015 may be a peak for Hep C revenue and profit. At the same time lots of pharma companies that havent grown revenue in a decade have much higher PEs.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Visa, MasterCard Fear IBM? [View article]
    I find it hard to think IBM can do anything related to adding value.

    The article is likely a plant from the IBM PR staff. They like to suggest that Apple is going to lead IBM to the promised land.

    I continue to request that IBM replace its CEO and the decision makers on the Board of Directors. Both competence and integrity are in question.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]

    Just thinking I went back and did some short lazy math on US Hep C patients

    2014 140,000 patients X $90,000 script price X .78 ( 100%-22% disc) = $9.83 bil

    2015 250,000 patients X $90,000 script X .53 (100%-46% disc) = $12.15 bil

    So just a little rough figuring on US revenue growth based on GILDs guidance. Some things we also know

    - the discounts are based on volume such that in 1Q the discounts are less and more toward end of year

    - Mgt has since said that they got agreements in place faster than expected.

    - Europe and world revenue will be up significantly

    - Margins 88.5% (87%-90%)

    - now it is being suggested patient volume likely to be up 10% from guidance

    In 6 weeks when earnings are reported anything could happen. I am saying that one of those things could be a significant blowout of outperformance.

    In 4Q 2014 EPS were $2.43. Why should an investor expect lower results in 1Q2015 or 2Q2015?

    I am going back to $10.00 EPS in 2015 as my estimate and suggest GILD is trading at a 10 PE on 2015 EPS.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: An Absolutely Excellent Company With An Absolutely Terrible Valuation [View article]
    As an owner of CELG I read the article and I would offer the following observations.

    1) CELG is trading at 26.6 times expected 2015 EPS

    2) CELG has grown EPS 25.5% annually for the past 5 years and is expected to grow 30% this year and 27.25% over the next 5 years.

    If you believe in the growth and the pipeline CELG is a fair value. I actually think 20% EPS growth is a more realistic expectation for a $100+ billion company.

    3) A P/S of 13.08 does argue that CELG has a value based heavily on potential and should that potential not appear a downside could be significant.

    4) CELG is up about 320% over the past 5 years which is quite a run.

    So I acknowledge the opportunity and the risk. Long term I see growth in CELG with many great molecules in the pipeline. My mind wont change with the next 20% move in shares.

    It takes courage to invest, its takes more courage to invest in biotech, it takes even more courage to take a long term strategy. In 10 years I think CELG will have treated me well from its value today.
    Mar 21, 2015. 09:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen up on study results in Alzheimer's [View news story]
    I will add a few thoughts on BIIB

    - It was nice to see BIIB jump $42 and I wouldnt buy at this level but I wont sell my shares either.

    - Any future Alzheimers treatment is going to have a huge market since nothing exists currently. It would be a mistake to value BIIB only on Alzheimers as BIIB has over 30 drugs listed in a great pipeline.

    - With revenues of $9.7 bil and a market cap of $112 bil an owner today is betting heavily on potential. Is it worth a 28 PE on 2015 expected results? Probably more than some old line pharma companies that have had declining revenue for a decade and PEs that arent much lower.
    Mar 21, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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