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  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]

    You may notice I was asking questions and not making statements. I note that

    1) DrX wrote an article noting that ABBV paid $20 billion for 50% of Imbruvica

    2) The results may or may not be able to be indirectly compared to Imbruvica. I was just asking an informed opinion.

    3) GILD does have numerous drugs utilizing 4 different pathways which I suspect could advance future care if successful and combined.

    Perhaps GILD oncology pipeline should be worth a share of the market value such as $10 billion, but I dont know. So I asked some questions.
    Nov 17, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your perspective and ideas.

    I certainly see lots of reasons for concern in investing. Yet I have always maintained an optimistic view and continue to do so today.

    Things looked bad when I first invested in the stock market during college. I think the S&P was about 88 vs the current 2050. Early on I realized that what I thought would happen was often quite different than what actually did happen.

    I remain a fan of quality assets including GILD. In fact I would ask DrX if the Zydelig study that was unblinded today was a comparison against Imbruvica? Dont I remember an article where Imbruvica was valued at $40 billion? Wasnt Zydelig put in place of Imbruvica in a 3 drug combo of current best practice that was unblinded because the results were too successful to ignor?
    Nov 16, 2015. 04:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The New Indications For Harvoni Increase Gilead Sciences' U.S. Sales? [View article]
    I am not sure I got much out of this article other than the author likes GILD and thinks it has a low PE.
    Nov 16, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why Gilead Is A Better Investment Than Intel And 3 Reasons Why It Is Not [View article]
    Thanks for a comparison.

    I think perhaps other alternatives might have been more illuminating to compare GILD against. MRK as an example.

    Also GILD is really competing against itself at current valuations. At the beginning of 2015, bears thought GILD growth was over and it will be over 50% growth when the year is done. The key to GILD valuation is narrowing the huge variance in expectations for the coming years.
    Nov 16, 2015. 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: A Primer On Growth Stock Value Investing (GARP) - Part 2 [View article]
    Who knew Chuck could find a growth company like CELG and understand it. I thought he specialized in toilet bowl companies like IBM. The growth process works in reverse as well for decline companies!

    I think most of Chucks readers would benefit from AMGN which trades at a 15 PE on 2015 estimates. They just announced they intend to raise the dividend by 27% in 2016 after several years of 30% growth. In an overall market of decline rather than growth AMGNs 10%+ growth rate qualifies as a growth company. The 20% growth rate since the mid 1980s can be calculated by curious investors.

    GILD with a 8-9 PE, 50% growth this year and another dividend that could rise rapidly might be another to consider.

    With an investment in all 3 the investor could diversify the risk and in a couple of years get a reasonable dividend return with the growth.

    CELG - has a great pipeline and 30+ partnerships with the best biotech R&D companies. 20% long term expected growth rate.

    AMGN - has Repatha a PCSK9 drug which is 1 of 2 in the class that may have total sales of $100 billion according to CVS and Kyprolis a new rapidly growing cancer drug. 20% growth with the $1 dividend each quarter in 2016 is very possible for a 15 PE.

    GILD - developed a tablet that cures Hepatitis C in 8-12 weeks with few side effects. 180MM people infected around the world. For over a year analysts have been predicting it has peaked yet 2015 will provide 50%+ earnings growth again. GILD could easily raise the dividend to 2.5% or more in 2016 on a current investment.

    Whatever amount one could consider for growth divide by 3 and invest a third in each of the above for a lower risk way of getting 20% growth vs a current market that has no growth.
    Nov 14, 2015. 12:34 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Like Watching Paint Dry In 2015 [View article]
    Regarding acquisitions

    I am no longer expecting a larger acquisition based on John Milligan's statements. A few days ago he stated that GILD was limited by how many people you could add and it still be the same GILD. That is why he said he preferred smaller developmental acquisitions.

    I continue to like GILD and generally buy any time it drops below $100. I will likely get a chance to add shares again soon. At 20% - 30% undervalued I remain a fan.
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Like Watching Paint Dry In 2015 [View article]
    excellent points Peter
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Is A Weak Excuse For A Long [View article]
    So FCX is at $8.65 as I write and the news flow is horrible. However if you listen to and view the 3Q presentation and the Cowan conference information, some powerful and positive information is on the horizon. That includes

    - rapidly dropping capital expenditures
    - The ability to produce Copper at $1.15 cash cost
    - The ability to produce Oil at $19 bbl
    - Capital needs expected are in hand about $4 bil available on credit lines
    - Competitively - mines with highest ore content and lowest extraction cost
    - Great Oil resources which may get spun off to shareholders
    - 2017 and forward ability to pay down debt by $2-3 bil year
    - Huge reductions in Mine valuations can easily generate higher profits in the future
    - China Copper demand is static not dropping

    I bought shares at $8.65 not thinking I will hit the low but rather that it will be a great long term return and I can average in lower if the opportunity presents itself. I can remember FCX shares at $60 but I am really thinking that with a positive swing in cash flow next year at this time I think it could trade near $20.
    Nov 13, 2015. 04:14 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen's 27% Dividend Increase For 2016 Is A Sign Of Its Strength [View article]
    Excellent article!

    AMGN is one of the best investment alternatives in the market.

    As I write AMGN trades at a 15 forward 2016 PE and has 10%+ growth projected. One of the best risk reward alternatives around.

    Why is AMGN such a good value?

    My belief is that AMGN is not considered a Biotech stock by Biotech investors. It isnt a value stock for most value investors. Where most investors remember a 4 year period of static performance ending a couple years ago, few recognize the 30+ year history of 20%+ returns.

    A year ago AMGN was trading at $160 and 2015 is on track to provide a 16% increase in EPS. With Repatha and Kyprolis the future looks very bright.

    So I would argue that a fair price for AMGN would be $185 and not the current $150. Instead of shares being 16% higher based on earnings, as I write they are 6% lower and that is a 22% variance from expectations.
    Nov 13, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. FDA Approves New Indications for Harvoni®, Gilead’s Once-Daily Single Tablet Regimen for Chronic Hepatitis C [View article]
    Go GILD!

    The shares may not rise but the business just keeps getting better and better.
    Nov 12, 2015. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: The Margin Of Safety Will Benefit Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Great article Jeremy!

    GILD's strategy is a lot more clear now. John Milligan at CS stated the limitation he sees is the # of people that can be fit into GILD w/o ruining the nature of the company and therefore stated he prefers smaller developmental acquisitions.

    He added that sometimes you dont get your way and you have to think more broadly. By that he is referring to the BOD which has asked GILD leaders to be open to all alternatives. To me it is likely that both Martin and Milligan do not want a larger acquisition and are too successful for a BOD to over rule.

    So Bulls will continue to see growth and Bears will continue to see a decline and a 6% annual share buyback is a good expectation. I agree that I would buy additional shares on any drop to $100 or less.
    Nov 12, 2015. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Is Nothing Special [View article]
    Nice article Brandon!

    I dont see any evidence that Oil has hit bottom. Or that we need another $1 trillion of Oil infrastructure built. Or that all those contracts supporting Kinder development can be honored long term. Or that dividends are sustainable.

    Oil could have hit bottom. We may need new infrastructure. Those contracts may be honored long term. With an 8% return some doubts must be apparent to many others.

    Kinder Morgan may be something special or not. I do think we are going to get a definitive answer to that question in the coming months. When the answer comes I am ready to act.
    Nov 11, 2015. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis Pharmaceuticals Moves Closer To A Durable Success [View article]
    Great article!

    I enjoy reading articles which bring the thrust of a company's efforts into full view. Look forward to reading the follow on article on ISIS.
    Nov 11, 2015. 05:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy ConocoPhillips For The 5.4% Yield And Wait For Inevitable Oil Recovery [View article]
    It is obvious the author doesnt believe in capitulation and blowout lows.

    I am not suggesting that will or wont happen. On a historical basis one has to consider

    - Will loans get called in by banks in a big way ahead?

    - Is the economic malaise around the world a key factor to consider

    I dont know but I am guessing that it is going to be a decent strategy to be late to this party.
    Nov 11, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: KickStart My Heart [View article]
    Interesting article!

    It weaved together a large number of facts in a different way.

    I remain bullish on GILD. Perhaps the key is to stay calm and keep bullishness in check because otherwise you might sell out of frustration before GILD shares find fair value.
    Nov 10, 2015. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment