jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Disney now down 3.2% after 'Star Wars' pushes record quarterly earnings  [View news story]
    DIS is a great company to own and reasonably valued.

    DIS announces a beat and is up big and CNBC starts commenting on it being an old media company and the stock drops big. They cut to Bog Iger who was visibly pissed.

    I dont know why I am laughing as a DIS shareholder. Except that I might buy more tomorrow.
    Feb 9, 2016. 04:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Buyout Targets Abound  [View article]
    I will just focus on GILD needs. Milligan has stated that they tend to like smaller companies that have a phase 3 trial with strong data backing it up. He followed that up by saying however in deference to our BOD we are keeping our mind open to any alternatives as they have requested.

    In late fall Milligan stated everything is data dependent. We are waiting on data and the data doesnt yet support action. Finally in the latest earnings call Oncology appears to be the highest area of focus.

    With 5 drugs in works on HBV GILD has said it has a small army working on it. If data supports a company with a HBV drug GILD will not be outbid for it.

    I&I is a possibility but GILD is getting a high return on using its cash to buy shares.

    CELG would marry a huge pipeline with huge cash but I have a hard time seeing it happen. Roche, NVS and possibly JNJ would have plenty to say about that as well.
    Feb 9, 2016. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Too Cheap To Ignore  [View article]
    So I believe in CHK!

    All in all however I believe more in letting things play out a little and letting a few companies actually go bankrupt.

    When as I believe CHK is not among them I will have a very good alternative. An investor in the bonds might do better now as it is not such an All or Nothing proposition.
    Feb 9, 2016. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Stocks And Market Sectors Offer Shelter From The Storm If It Keeps Raining?  [View article]
    DrX

    First congrats on your bond strategy which I assume has given you good gains based on 10 year levels and your avoidance of stocks in 2016 save minimal exposure.

    So we probably have some debt issues to deal with which are painful to markets. Further with negative interest rates around the world we are in a deflationary cycle. Some of the lowest rates in the history of civilization suggest such.

    At the same time I never let myself get too bearish. The most successful investors over any longer term have chosen risks wisely and remained more positive than average. That strategy has served me extremely well in the 2008 period and though out my life.

    Both a little pain and some wonderful opportunities lie ahead. I guess my point is there is risk with any alternative. Having a diverse set of assets may reduce your actual risk more than you currently imagine.
    Feb 9, 2016. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Stock Market And Defeating The Efficient Market Hypothesis - Part I  [View article]
    I refused to believe the efficient market theory in Finance courses 35 years ago. Yet normally I am a long term investor and do not prefer to try and actively trade.

    During periods of stress I find that I can trade and consistently beat the market. In normal times I cant beat computerized trading and tax consequences and wouldnt even try.

    It is silly to suggest that certain factors dont influence markets. Defeating computerized trading is a more difficult task.
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: The Turnaround Has Arrived  [View article]
    FCX has great assets and excellent low cost of producing both Oil and Copper. The confluence of negative implications almost demands that shares rise significantly.

    That is assuming they are able to service the $20 bil in debt and survive.

    My thought would be to wait for some companies to bite the dust which is likely and then FCX not being among them might be a great investment for many years.
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: One Thing The Market Is Forgetting  [View article]
    I will offer an investor view on GILD.

    On buybacks I would prepay a years buyback and at least end the year with 10% of shares repurchased or about $12 billion out of the $20.3 bil cash flow. Then the $12.61 earnings are essentially $13.86 per share.

    Then GILD does need an acquisition(s) to get proper multiple expansion. Some sort of existing revenue product or more likely a promising drug in phase three. Ideally the low PE could be moved from 6 to 10.

    Still I think GILD still has rabbits in its hat. They keep saying HCV is bigger in the US than we think. HBV, NASH, STR, Oncology, Pan Genotype, Cardio, I&I and while I am forgetting something my point is GILD gets credit for nothing from a future perspective. Not even the 1.5MM diagnosed and waiting US HCV patient queue.

    I dont mind however with the buyback GILD already took the analysts negative EPS guidance off the table. If I dont think it is fairly valued I should buy... and so I have.
    Feb 9, 2016. 09:35 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: 'Negative Growth', No Problem  [View article]
    133

    I tend to agree with you that a fair minimum PE for GILD is 8. A midpoint PE of 10.

    With the share buyback it wouldnt take much growth to get a $14 EPS.

    - 1.5MM US HCV diagnosed and waiting
    - World HCV growing and Pan Geno coming
    - HIV/other growing 10%+ rate expected

    I am not predicting it but the numbers dont rule out $15.
    Feb 9, 2016. 12:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Mobil Drops To $48 Within 15 Months  [View article]
    I will add in the $60s as well and I fully expect to have that opportunity.

    Where we may differ is I find the little $4 bil cash a rather puny war chest.

    We probably differ on valuing earnings which are down almost 60%.

    We differ in that I can envision a XOM at less than AAA credit rating given $34 bil debt.

    It borrowed $7 bil to get thru 2015 and by the looks of it needs more liquidity.

    XOM is a great company that has treated shareholders very well which is why I am interested. It is far from worth $80 though in my mind. I will let it come to me and that $66 low in Aug has a strong magnet somewhere underneath it.

    I think investors are blindly rewarding history and the future has a few more clouds overhead.
    Feb 8, 2016. 07:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Mobil Drops To $48 Within 15 Months  [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I have looked at XOM and just shake my head as earnings deteriorate seriously with declining Oil and the stock just stays like it is anchored to the Rock of Gibralter. Why?

    I suspect that it is the AAA rating and how part of what we are seeing in markets is a financial component and the belief XOM will gain from others demise.

    I could see the $58-$60 area when Oil capitulation arrives. The one caveat I would make is the key question of is XOM really a AAA credit as it has been for a long long time with $34 bil debt?
    Feb 8, 2016. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Kotok And Bill Miller Pound The Table For U.S. Stocks: Evaluating Their Arguments  [View article]
    PS RE Bill Miller I ask the question

    What is the definition of a 90% loss?

    ans: An 80% loss that just got cut in half again.
    Feb 7, 2016. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Kotok And Bill Miller Pound The Table For U.S. Stocks: Evaluating Their Arguments  [View article]
    It is the great logic that keeps me reading your articles DrX. I probably like the articles we agree on better but make more money off the ones on which we disagree.

    I am agnostic on this article as I do see an S&P500 1700 possibility. At the same time I see some good values.

    A buy Ugly approach has caught quality companies like EMR, WMT, DE and VZ near lows and I especially like companies tangential to the commodity crisis. Like EMR with 20% related to it. Others like CAT and X I just didnt have the guts to buy but I might get another bite of the apple with some panic. EMR and WMT were recent trades not intended LT holdings I might add.

    To hear your views on Bill Miller I knew would be outstanding as you are the antithesis of him. He made his name investing in high beta companies in the 90's until his name was unspeakable after 2001 crash and 90% losses.

    I both commend your impeccable timing on stocks and caution your uber bearish world view. I dont think this is 1937 but it could be and I dont think it is 1993 but it could be. I also recognize that when I started investing the S&P500 was about 100.

    I dream equally of the opportunities at 1700 S&P and the gains if the market shoots higher.
    Feb 7, 2016. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    I have to admit that I have been looking for 1700 on the S&P and actually have a 20% correction.

    Something will break! Perhaps a Hedge Fund, Glencore, a Euro Bank, some Chinese Bank, Oil Companies, a Country debt restructure... Somebody has Trillion(s) in debt from Oil etc.

    At the same time earnings are good in 4Q, valuations are not that high in my view

    I have some extra cash to throw in at 1800 level. We used to have corrections more often. Kind of cleared the air.

    On one hand only a fool would not recognize stresses building up and the Banks are showing it. Still that doesnt mean a catastrophe.

    To each their own! I might buy a little puke.
    Feb 5, 2016. 08:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences For 2016  [View article]
    Seems reasonable Alex!

    I remain quite happy to have GILD shares and believe substantial upside exists. Markets go up and down so I wont predict a target price in this comment. Lets just say I could see a double if conditions are right.

    - 1.5MM patients identified and waiting
    - Pan Geno opportunity could be huge
    - HBV a break thru concept within 2 yrs
    - TAF significant growth
    - reasonable PE 10-12 vs 6
    - Acquisition coming
    - 10% fewer shares this year
    - 16% CF return on mkt cap builds 2016 results
    - 10% dividend growth
    - research results are phenomenal and vastly underrated

    The profits are up 60% and the share price is down. I see about a 75% gap in fair value that begins to close in 2016.
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron - A Review: Strong Returns Look Likely For 2016 And Beyond  [View article]
    DrX

    Really a great article!

    I am thinking of getting back in REGN. I left to focus on my GILD position. My feeling was the GILD $82 was a likely bottom even in a bad market.

    In a bad market CELG has an attraction to that $92 Aug low and I would buy more if a break in that level occurred which has a solid possibility. AMGN unlikely to break through the Aug low unless all hell breaks loose.

    REGN at $399 as I write seems an uncommonly good value for the risk. I note earnings on 2/9 and presentation on 2/11. Biotech has been savaged from top to bottom with RBC and others suggesting decade level lows. I am likely to buy in before earnings and longer term may convert some AMGN into REGN.

    If I was forced to pick a low I might suggest $370 and anything below $400 is a very good initial starting point. Best of luck!
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,590 Comments
6,118 Likes