Seeking Alpha

jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • GE: Immelt's Rumored Departure Could Mean Upside For Shares [View article]
    I would just say GE has a lot more risk than people generally think they do.

    A strategy to take a highly levered company and support it on a highly volatile Oil sector just isnt very intelligent. I am not saying GE will drop a lot, just that the risk is higher than its investors recognize.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Business Machines: A New Bond Market Ranking [View article]
    I just want to make a counter argument. It should be noted that long term companies are often rated highly until entering a rapid descent. So I want to note that IBM

    - Has been losing revenue at an increasing rate for Rometty's entire tenure.
    - Cash Flow and earnings have now turned negative.
    - 340% debt to equity now as it has been borrowing heavily

    then I should mention what would seem to be bald faced lies by mgt

    - including last year at this time stating that IBM was really debt free and the debt was all product financing related.
    - Last qtr stating currency caused the -12% drop in revenue at least 2 times any other company I saw reported.

    I could go on but if one was to buy that IBM debt would an upgrade or a downgrade be more likely over the next year?

    IBM has been a great company and may still be but only a fool would jump on IBM bonds with so little to gain and so much to lose.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Great article Anthony!

    Everywhere I look I just see growth as well!

    In the US I see growth with little competition. ABBV is more of a nightmare alternative if you have bad insurance. Scripts are escalating up 10% from Jan to Feb alone in the US. Europe is in startup mode and Japan about to start as indicated in the article.

    In the HIV world TAF is expected to lift revenues in 2015 due to its outstanding reduction in side effects.

    It is a great time to be a GILD shareholder but I think many will need to see it jump to a new high before investing. With all of the growth that I see, analysts still have zero growth projected for 2Q 2015 and I think that is a mistake.

    In addition the variance in analyst projections is so great that some see imminent decline while others see extensive growth. The author does a good job of poking holes in the decline theory.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Huge Long-Term Growth Potential Based On Philip Fisher's Ideals [View article]

    With regard to GILD I see continued growth in the current quarter. In 2Q I think analysts will revise upward their -0- growth targets as well. The result is a growing year beyond the current consensus.

    I also acknowledge competition in 2016 but I think it is likely they will have a hard time matching GILDs outstanding Hep C drug performance.

    So with GILD about 30% undervalued by my estimate patience is required. After 1Q is reported I am hopeful that analysts can attempt to estimate GILD with more precision instead of being all over the map.

    Finally I would mention that listening to the fireside chat and other GILD presentations I noticed a very bullish tone of confidence from Milligan. Things like approvals exceeding our expectations, 1000 new prescribers etc.
    Mar 18, 2015. 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Huge Long-Term Growth Potential Based On Philip Fisher's Ideals [View article]
    Somedata1

    I think you make an excellent point.

    One of the greatest cures in history and all anyone wants to talk about is last years price.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Perfect Prescription For The Long-Term Value Investor [View article]
    I enjoyed the article!

    Really GILD valuation comes down to HepC and whether it will grow or decline.

    The bulls see GILD with a clearly superior product and dont worry about competition. The bears see competitors forcing a price war with lower revenue for all.

    I tend to think GILD treatments are quite special. That GILD will continue to dominate Hep C for many many years and competition will find it hard to compete.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb's Daclatasvir Is Good, But Gilead's GS-5816 Is Better [View article]
    Interesting article!

    GILD always seems a step ahead in Hep C. I am hopeful that their Hep C success extends to Liver Diseases including Hep B and Nash.
    Mar 16, 2015. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Time To Be Greedy? [View article]
    I hold a little T so I am not overly negative on it as an investment at its current valuation.

    At the same time I feel lots of swirling winds around T prospects. Here are some thoughts to consider before making an investment.

    - Dividend is 155% of earnings ( approx 9.55 bil Div vs 6.22 bil NI) not 74.3%
    - Margins are decreasing whether Gross or Operating leading to lower income
    - Competition is intensifying
    - Debt is increasing rapidly and after transactions likely above $100 bil range with a recent history of $5-10 bil annual increases in addition
    - most of the dividend is provided with borrowed money

    A day could likely arrive when T needs to invest heavily in its business and can no longer justify further borrowing to pay the dividend. Perhaps they would slice the dividend by 50%.

    For diversification I own a small amount of T but I would be much more interested when it reaches $25 share again. I think I will get that chance.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: The Path To Increased Profitability Materializes [View article]
    I think the author should stop writing articles advocating buying GE until he actually buys shares for himself.

    I dont blame him though I wouldnt buy that crap. Even if GE is paying me to write articles. Which brings me to my main point. Why would non shareholders write endless articles extolling the value of a GE investment if they werent being paid?
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Thanks for a great article!

    It certainly gives us something to ponder.

    At the same time it is not surprising that the author would suggest buying bonds at a time that when they pay very little. It must be hard to build a bond fund on minimal rates.

    Personally I choose to avoid bonds now and carry a slightly higher allocation of cash. The risk just doesnt make sense for duration or credit rating.

    With stocks I prefer value but demand revenue growth with it. A growing business with strong cash flows can cure a lot of evils.
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For General Electric [View article]
    Dino Dino Dino!

    First let me thank you for writing an article and expressing your thoughts. It is the start to becoming a successful investor. Now regarding GE!

    GE first hit its current share price back 18 years ago in 1997. So think about guessing you might be 22 years old having a stock at the same level when you are 40 years old. I think you should set your sights higher.

    GE leadership has consistently performed some of the dumbest moves. Moves that even as a student you would be ashamed of and each and every year they lie. They put out charts showing huge order growth, they say growth is just around the corner, and when after a decade you get the same results year after year and management gets congratulated... well it doesnt take a college graduate to realize they are blowing smoke up something.

    They are only in business because the government bailed them out. It seems the bright financial minds in GE decided to finance their business on 30 day commercial paper and when nobody wanted their paper, 30 days later they were screwed. Managed to go from being AAA to bankrupt in 30 days.

    I could discuss how the Oil industry is a historic boom and bust industry and how predictable a drop in Oil prices is. I could relate how management has still guided that they dont expect declines in their Oil related business but I covered that in the Lie paragraph.

    My recommendation would be to go to Morningstar or something that shows 10 year results and view the GE consistent decline. It could be that year 19 is magic but I wouldnt bet on it.

    For the record I have made significant money investing in GE. After a crisis was imminent in late 2007 I sold near $40 and bought back at $7 in 2009 which I have sold. I ignored lies from management about the operation which avoided significant losses.

    If you want to own a conglomerate buy a share of BRK-B. They provided GE money during the crisis at rates that would make a loan shark blush and crushed GE shareholder value further.

    Mar 13, 2015. 11:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    I do think it will be hard to raise rates when Europe is negative. Further the US government can try balancing its budget on increased interest payment costs.

    On the other hand the current rates are causing problems to accumulate. When near bankrupt companies can borrow long term for 5% problems are building. Recessions can not be avoided, but severity and length can be addressed.

    Like the old commercial "You can pay me now or pay me later".
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil - No Relief So Far [View article]
    I remain with minimal investment in Oil stocks and will add some thoughts.

    My strongest conviction is that Oil stocks cant bottom until at least 1 quarter of earnings are reported since the major drop. We saw 4Q earnings and cash flows based on $75-$80 Oil. Now we can see 1Q based on $50 Oil.

    History would suggest Oil hasnt hit bottom. That if you havent seen cutbacks, or a blowout low or significant pain you havent seen the bottom. Yet in past Oil crashes it wasnt possible to raise money easily or at historic low rates. So if no company is forced to sell at crushing lows or goes bankrupt what happens?

    After Oil stocks reflect $50 Oil prices which I dont think they have I could consider investing for the long term. The easier money is to wait for perhaps a year or more for inventories to begin dropping and supplies match demand. Oil makes long term moves and an investment at that time would likely grow at attractive rates for many years.
    Mar 12, 2015. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America holds dividend and buyback steady as Fed gets its scalp [View news story]
    I wasnt surprised by this decision and expected it.

    Last year after the CCAR it seemed like only days passed before BAC located an error in their books and the whole regulatory process was called into question. Not only were the regulators embarassed, but it is most likely BAC knew of the error before the CCAR decision.

    BAC shares are worth much more than they currently trade for. At the same time a regulatory body once burned, is going to ensure that another embarrassing lack of internal controls does not appear.

    BAC shares will still benefit from additional cash held for another 6 months and it might even be beneficial for long term owners. For thinking purposes the Merrill Lynch unit alone is worth about 50% of BACs current valuation.

    Long term investors have time for the tide to roll in.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Still In The Lead Or Lagging Behind? An Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    GILD shares are at a great value in my opinion.

    I am fully invested but may purchase some additional shares. I already did that after the 3Q earnings report and again in Dec with the ABBV scare. Still I didnt expect GILD would drop below $100 after 4Q2014 earnings in Feb.

    In most of 2014 I watched the disbelief in the potential of Sovaldi, then pricing at $1000 pill headlines with government threats, then all the competitors which have fallen by the way, then a drop off as Harvoni was launching and finally the ABBV scare. Each threat seems to knock the shares down only to be eliminated before the next threat arrives.

    GILD is expected to increase EPS by 50%+ again with 1Q2015 earnings but some excuse will probably arise. However one day in the not so distant future GILD is ready to shoot higher and it could go a long way.

    As it sits GILD is one of my favorite value plays and one of my favorite growth plays.
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,729 Comments
3,865 Likes