Seeking Alpha

jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    This is totally irrelevant!

    The data is old, we have no idea what he is trying to accomplish and if I did I am not sure I would care.
    Sep 2 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Is Not Done Running [View article]
    I would add that 2014 earnings estimates are $8.00 not $7.00.

    It is fun owning GILD!

    It has rarely in my life been this easy to make money so I continue to keep my feet on the ground.
    Sep 2 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Criminal Acts Of Large Banks: Are Substantial Fines/Penalties Enough? [View article]
    There comes a time to move forward rather than continue to look back and examine history endlessly.

    I agree with many of the authors points. Except that we are where we are on regulation, and punishing banks further also means punishing jobs and the economy.

    The government recognizes that many people are mad about banks and what they got away with. Elected officials also know that they need contributions.

    That is why they are publicly pursuing Angelo Mozillo 2 months before an election. They neglect to mention that between agreements related to the sale of Countrywide and legal statutes of limitations it is all just for show.
    Sep 2 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Future Growth Will Be Fueled By The Cloud [View article]
    I will add a few thoughts

    - $20 in 2015 was bold nearly 4 years ago when announced but not anymore

    - I dont expect anything unusual for IBM just $17.90 2014 EPS x 12 PE = $215 in Jan 2015, and $20 x 12 PE = $240 in Jan 2016

    - I think IBM stock repurchases have already largely achieved their forward goals but if not they will purchase more. About 10% of shares purchased in past year.

    - I sold all IBM 2 years ago as it was too expensive for a CEO that seemed incompetent. Glad to have it back in my portfolio at a similar price.

    - Still wish IBM stopped trying to pump share price through PR schemes and got a new CEO. Everything that leaks out of IBM is like a bubbling cauldron emitting strange odors. But the shares reflect that!
    Sep 2 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's May Serve Up A 10% Dividend Increase [View article]
    There is nothing wrong with being a dividend dreamer. We all should have dreams.

    Once you return to reality however a company that has flat sales and flat profits in 2014 isnt going to raise its dividend by 10%. MCD already pays out 56% of profits in dividends.

    At least if you are going to dream why dont you add Kate Upton into it. That sounds like much more fun.
    Sep 2 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Fair Value Is About $46 From A Dividend Investing Perspective [View article]
    My estimates include the Zero growth in earnings projected by analysts this year and the current 63% dividend payout.

    Therefore my estimates differ widely from the authors.
    Aug 31 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Security At 70: Always A Bad Idea [View article]
    TF17

    I am not saying that the government is granting untold gains by waiting. Largely a person is getting an equivalent value whenever they take it except for perhaps the increased life span if that occurs.

    My point is that for those who have accumulated assets and the ability to delay SS they should consider it strongly. The ability to predict several decades in the future is highly uncertain. I would prefer to structure my benefit to come when I might need it most.
    Aug 31 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Guardians Of Earnings Growth [View article]
    I have been considering what to do with my DIS.

    After riding it a long way I wonder if it isnt time for a movie to flop. For the law of good fortune to reverse a little.

    Part of my concern about DIS is short term with ESPN experiencing rising costs and reduced profit. That unit makes up 45% of DIS. Then the movie unit with summer box office industry wide down 25% this summer and no summer movies I find it hard to see growth in that unit. Theme parks, consumer products and interactive should do well.

    I Like DIS long term prospects but question a 5 year growth rate above 10%. DIS has not had a single thread of adversity in a long time. Therefore I am likely to trim my holdings and take some profit.

    Sometimes I take profits when everything looks good. Otherwise I might have to take them when things are less good.
    Aug 31 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: Another High-Yield Telecom For Current Income [View article]
    Enjoyed the excellent article!

    I moved from T/VZ being the largest position in my portfolio by the end of 2008 to eliminating all of it a couple years ago as it just didnt have return opportunity. Recently I have begun picking up VZ shares as I find the shares undervalued to the market and historically undervalued.

    What you get with VZ today is a much more profitable company that due to the merger is carrying a lot more debt. My guess is they will be conserving cash short term.

    At this point in the economic cycle, growth has been at a premium while a steady growing performer like VZ is out of favor. Over the next 5 years I look for 7% earnings growth and a slightly increasing dividend as the author describes.

    In return should the market drop I will have a good dividend and losses in share price of perhaps 50% or less of an S&P500 drop.

    So with the undervaluation of shares at present I look for a 5 year Total Return of 9-10%. I look for a market downturn within 5 years and I will have some added protection with steady income.
    Aug 31 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Solid Investment For The Frugal Investor [View article]
    To be clear I have invested in IBM and I am looking to add to it after having sold a significant position 2 years ago so I am bullish.

    I am bullish because IBM is a stable high cash flow business that has bought back about 10% of its shares in the past year. So I project about a 10% increase in earnings.

    On the other side I also see more risk than you do as IBM has been bleeding revenue at about 4% annually since Rometty took over as CEO. You should recognize that borrowing heavily to buy back shares and large drops in revenue along with a possibly incompetent CEO presents risk. If you doubt that look at HPQ a few years back.

    Trying to fully recognize both the risk and reward opportunity will make one a much better investor. My base case is $17.90 FY2014 earnings x 12 PE = $215 in January.
    Aug 30 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Should Investors Consider This Stock From An Earnings Quality Perspective? [View article]
    I appreciate a different perspective taken by the author.

    Absent opportunities such as takeovers or risks such as legislation to increase taxes on carbonated beverages I will assess the core business of KO as a cash flow story.

    With 7.5 billion FCF / $183 billion market cap KO could buy back about 4% of its shares. Since I dont see revenue growth and KO is very productive I wont add anything else.

    So a high quality annual earnings growth of 4% is my expectation. That is higher than this years 0% but lower than the analysts 5 year projection of 5%.
    Aug 30 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors In GE Should Watch Out For This Sub-Industry Peer [View article]
    GE is not a bad value today.

    It was a great value when I bought it at $7.40 in 2009.

    However if I had known that their planned recovery period wasnt 2-3 years but 7-10 years I would have moved on. I also didnt know about the Immelt 20 year tenure plan.

    Still my guess is above average performance for the next year.
    Aug 29 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T And Consolidated Edison A 'Tell' Of 2 Champions: Part 3 [View article]
    Chuck is an excellent author and I appreciate his work even if I disagree with his conclusion.

    I would note that T on a cash flow basis in 2013 brought in $11.7 billlon after investments to try and stem the drop in revenue. Of that $9.7 billion was spent on dividends. I should add that T borrowed $9.1 billion to buy back shares in 2013 to keep earnings per share positive.

    A new accounting policy should help revenue turn slightly positive unless they get enhanced competition. I would add that T share price is about where it was in 2006 and up to 60% of where it was at the Jun 1999 peak.

    To be fair T is not overvalued today in my mind but does have risks.

    My recommendation would be better investment opportunities exist including VZ which has the best wireless network and the best fiber network. Even at the same or higher dividend yield better opportunities exist.
    Aug 29 01:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Security At 70: Always A Bad Idea [View article]
    Colorado

    I appreciate your view! I too plan to be able to live off my assets and in fact intend to keep growing assets throughout my life.

    However I also dont want to ignor the fact that at age 80 SS provides the majority of income for 76% and 90%+ of income for about half of SS recipients. Those numbers are rising as well.
    Aug 29 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Solid Investment For The Frugal Investor [View article]
    Talk about damned by faint praise!

    "Investments should have the ability to preserve wealth and possibly produce a return..."

    Your boldly going all in on this recommendation!
    Aug 29 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,287 Comments
2,885 Likes