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jstratt

jstratt
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  • ConocoPhillips: A Surprise Dividend Hike [View article]
    At $59 I bought a 10% share of my long term position

    Today 7/23 at $53.70 another 10% share. Also recommend putting in a $49 buy for 10%.

    It is still early in an Oil crash, with no bankruptcies, no pain, no real agony, no blowout low on high volume, no hard core budget slashing. By historical standards I am too early.

    My guess is after the summer is over it will be a painful fall season. By 2017 things will be moving upward. Greed kills!
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM -6.3%; Street cuts estimates, debates turnaround after mixed Q2 [View news story]
    Judging by recent comments only a few long term IBM shareholders actually view SA anymore. Most of the comments anymore appear to be made by people paid by IBM.

    As we proceed into the 4th year of shareholder value declines and no end in sight perhaps the IBM paid commenters can debate among themselves. One thing is for sure and that is long term shareholders arent extolling the greatness of IBM with their shares dropping from $215 down to $160 during a great bull market.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Assessment Of Celgene's Deal For Receptos [View article]
    I understand DRx point as there does exist some risk in CELG and especially after another jump. It does not seem like a time to chase CELG and patient investors could likely see a more attractive buying opportunity.

    With regard to selling CELG over the years I have developed a strategy where huge long term winners are held and not sold. I could violate that rule if I thought the business was threatened but not on perception of valuation.

    CELG is one of the best long term successful growers. For the history of CELG sellers have been losers. Through most of that period valuation seemed very high.

    So one cannot complain that CELG isnt investing in their future. They have stuffed their future with a tremendous quantity of the best product opportunities. Given their track record perhaps investors should consider carefully decisions to sell out of CELG.

    I will also go one step farther. Trading CELG on valuation or timing has been a big loser historically. My recommendation would be to invest an amount of money each month or quarter into CELG and stick to it.

    Do you really want to sell a 20%+ growth company with a growing pipeline and in a growing industry? If so good luck! DRx might be able to make that work but you will likely end up with a portfolio of IBM and GE.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare ratings roundup [View news story]
    Last quarter I thought BIIB reported mediocre results and I cut holdings slightly. My view was also that they threw Alzheimers out there even though it is 5 years down the road and very early, as a share support strategy.

    However BIIB is not a company to sell out of. They have consistently for decades performed for investors and have great innovation. Someday it will end but for BIIBs entire existence the only losers have been sellers or non shareholders.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Key Points I Am Watching For From Gilead Sciences [View article]
    John

    I will try to answer assuming you meant "What are the...

    GILD has a strong commitment to HBV and would buy TKMR in an instant if they thought it would move them ahead. The work on cccDNA seems to me the most likely area of value.

    One could do worse than to develop an HBV or NASH strategy for a portfolio. In a few years some big winners will likely emerge regardless of whether GILD itself buys TKMR. As for GILD buying TKMR that is a crapshoot.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen's Repatha cleared in Europe [View news story]
    Did you have any thoughts on the label?

    I am preparing to be surprised in the US. It would seem to me that some sort of industry group agreement that enhanced access to PCSK9 for lower pricing would make more sense to both health and budgets.

    Trying to restrict life saving drugs will hurt health and be a lot more expensive in the long run.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Key Points I Am Watching For From Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Ptatty Ptatty Ptatty

    Your hatred for GILD and its shareholders is showing through. That is not bad it actually adds perspective to this board.

    At the same time I doubt anyone believes you have ever been a shareholder as you represent. I would submit that your motive is anger and your name is Dr Steve Miller.

    Regardless GILD HCV revenues have doubled since the first reports of a decline. Perhaps you should remember your own words about grief when GILD announces a pipeline advance in NASH or HBV.
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pre-Earnings Look At Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Ptatty

    I know from your many comments that you have a focus in trying to push prices for HCV drugs lower rather than a shareholder outlook. Nothing wrong with that if that is your game.

    - So for the record MRK and GILD will not get in a price war.
    - MRK has deficiencies in genotype 1a about 5%-10% lower effectiveness
    - if anyone thought MRK would get even 15% MRKs shares would be jumping
    - EASL looked closely at competing drugs and seemed to indicate GILD for all genotypes
    - PBM's knowingly forcing a lesser alternative may have a price to pay as well
    - GILD's current price has been judged to be an excellent value
    - Drug companies have never attempted to compete on price

    Your arguments seem to be an attempt to shape the world to your view rather than a reflection of reality.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pre-Earnings Look At Gilead Sciences [View article]
    I prefer to focus on what we do know which is

    - GILD has the best treatments and cure for HIV and HCV genotype 1-6 and that wont change anytime soon.
    - GILD trades at a fair valuation below even negative growth pharma companies
    - HCV growth rate is a wild card given competition except that world growth can be reasonably expected. Also having a strong brand with great results and few side effects suggests anyone with the disease will want to be cured and want a GILD product if they have a choice.
    - potential for shares to rise do to an event such as an acquisition or pipeline update such as Simtuzumab, GS-9620 among others.
    - I tried to calculate EPS using about 6 diff methods from analysts, using GILD guidance, script counting estimates and have gotten more conservative to $2.95 which still suggests share price growth.

    This looks like a quiet week with low volume so far. Next week trading will heat up in advance of earnings. I still think GILD offers an lower risk and higher reward opportunity. I am very sure that earnings will grow this quarter, next quarter and for the year.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Question For Celgene Investors After The Receptos Acquisition [View article]
    Interesting article!

    As a CELG shareholder I would like to buy additional shares. But I have concluded as well that I will wait and let the excitement pass.

    The only long term losers in CELG have been those who sold. Still I do think CELG will settle before its next earnings period.
    Jul 20, 2015. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM down 4.4% following mixed Q2; cost cuts, buybacks boost EPS [View news story]
    I continue to follow IBM. Great company but will continue to decline apparently drip by drip water torture style. Once they get through this and dump Rometty I can invest again but they dont seem to be in any hurry and neither am I.

    - Revenue down 13 straight qtrs
    - Earnings down 13% I think and flat w/o currency while ORCL is projected roughly flat revenue what gives?
    - On call say currency worse in 3Q than 2Q
    - Strategic Imperitives up 30% they say but refuse to put numbers on it
    - US business down what is that currency effect?
    - Look for guidance to drop based on luke warm support for maintain guideance

    I would have to value IBM at 10 X 15.70 = $157 and might buy below $150 at some future point if things stopped deteriorating and Rometty was gone.
    Jul 20, 2015. 05:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Look For In IBM's Earnings [View article]
    I just want to note that I predicted $3.85 so I was off by .01c. It was declared a beat and guidance was reaffirmed.

    So $3.84 is a beat over the prior year $4.43 2Q EPS?

    As for guidance it was reaffirmed but it will drop over the next 85 days and IBM will be sure to beat the lowered target. rinse repeat...

    So far shares are only down $7.50.

    None of this is brain surgery! It is the IBM way and it will continue until competent leadership arrives.
    Jul 20, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Look For In IBM's Earnings [View article]
    decline in rev - check
    decline in EPS - check
    horrible mgt - check
    decline in gross margin - check
    decline in profit margin - check
    decline in FCF - check
    entire product lines run into the ground - check
    large increase in debt - check
    PE about the same as when IBM had growth - check
    Jul 20, 2015. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Look For In IBM's Earnings [View article]
    Good Luck to you Dominic and thanks for responding!

    I made a lot of money with IBM over many years. Tech is changing and it is leaving IBM behind at about a 4-5% rate annually by my estimate. So I am no longer a shareholder.

    4) Strategic imperatives are not reported as a division. IBM just talks about them with no data presented. Divisions are Software, Svcs, Sys and Tech

    3&5) GAAP is real and actual

    7) Do listen as I have felt deceived by the current management.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Look For In IBM's Earnings [View article]
    Regardless of all the excuses and explanations what you are viewing with IBM is decline. Investors would do better to find value investments in companies that are not in decline.

    Some points

    1) Double digit declines in revenue should not be allowed to get explained away as currency translation. Last quarter IBM had double the average currency losses of other major exporting companies.

    2) IBM plays games with earnings. As an example CNBC reported that IBM has beat on earnings 19 of the last 20 quarters but the stock drops. Typically the next quarter EPS is estimated then drops 10% during the quarter and IBM announces a beat.

    3) Consider IBMs forward target a year ago was $20.00 and now they are projecting $15.88 for this year. One year ago IBM delivered $4.43 EPS for 2Q and this quarter is estimated at $3.79. But dont worry the IBM game is to announce a huge beat to $3.85.

    4) Every division of IBM has now entered decline, even software

    5) Net Income peaked in 2012 and is down 26.5% according to Morningstar data

    6) Revenue is projected to decline 10%-11% for the year 2015.

    7) If you want to hear gibberish listen to an IBM earnings call.

    8) Basically IBM in the past year has tried to convince everyone they are social, mobile and cloud oriented. They are lucky if they are in the top 10 of companies in any of these areas.

    Consider carefully whether you want to invest in IBM until they replace a horrible management team.

    PS I leave you with a line from IBMs 1Q Earnings statement

    "IBM expects full-year 2015 GAAP diluted earnings per share of $14.17 to $14.92"
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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