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  • Has Celgene's Stock Been Beaten Up Enough? [View article]
    Thanks for a perspective on CELG!

    So I bought a fair amount of CELG at lows over the past 6 weeks and waited for earnings. When earnings hit I didnt quite know what to do but concluded after the call that CELG was worth less. Then I waited for a couple hours and sold most of the recent additions near $121 at a good profit.

    I still like CELG long term but 2016 & 2017 growth may fall short of the 20% expected was my conclusion. I remain with my long term holdings and I am tempted to add at the $113 price as I write. CELG is a fair price in my view but I suspect it is going to stay under $125 even in a good market in 2015.

    I hate to trade a great company like CELG preferring to build the longer term position. Anyway thanks for your insight on Revlimid and Abraxane in particular.
    Nov 9, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon rebounding on report it's considering $10B in asset sales [View news story]
    I share VZ managements desire to move to the future without additional debt.
    Nov 7, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Reason We Think Biotech Has Bottomed [View article]
    With a level of conviction I agree that biotech bottomed a few weeks back. I will add some divergent thoughts.

    - We are entering a time of year with lots of conferences reporting a lot of information on different companies. This usually draws money into the sector and should raise the ocean tide.

    - My view is that we are starting to exit a period of biotech anything rising. So more of a company view is required. Too much money is chasing to many drugs which will produce a limited number of winners.

    - I like AMGN for PCSK9 potential and value, I like GILD on value, I am letting CELG settle but may buy again soon, REGN I like for PCSK9 but have value concerns, BIIB I buy when I can scape shares off floors.

    - No small ball strategy at the moment as valuations are too high. At the same time the need for new revenue producing ideas is high. A promising concept will command a strong price.

    - I am suspicious of revenue projections on Cancer pipelines. A few big winners many more big losers.

    - I have to think the market will be higher on Dec 31
    Nov 7, 2015. 09:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Will Raise Rates [View article]

    Perhaps you nailed it! With tight labor markets and the potential for wage inflation rates will have to rise. Since it wont hurt our economy now to do so suggests it is a good time to normalize.

    Otherwise the day comes when massive increases in rates are required and induce a recession. Greenspan a few months ago grounded the debate by suggesting that data going back 500 years suggests we are lower now than at any previous time in history.
    Nov 7, 2015. 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Years Of International Success Ahead [View article]

    Nice well written article! Your talent is growing.
    Nov 7, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Years Of International Success Ahead [View article]

    You are correct people used to dream of $200 but now $120 as GILD largely trades on a model that HCV is a cure, the number of patients is limited and more revenue now means less later.

    That Model I think is going to break soon so I have been getting more bullish and will go back to predicting $200 by 2017. My reasoning goes like this

    GILD is finding the HCV population to be significantly higher than expected and even double in some test areas. 75% of those with HCV are Baby Boomers and need treatment now according to prestigious panels. Then consider the rate at which Baby Boomers are moving into Medicare.


    HIV revenues and profits are projected to grow and even double by some estimates over the next 5 years.

    The GILD pipeline continues to produce huge returns when little is expected from it. Sovaldi 2014, Harvoni 2015, TAF 2016, Pan Genotype... all just nice little annual multi billion dollar additions.

    So in conclusion yes many shareholders feel beaten down, but markets are hard to predict. With the recent developments of less competition, continued strong market share and pricing, a larger market than expected GILD has never looked better.

    I believe in actual performance and 60% growth again this year when none was expected is a powerful factor to consider.

    When last I calculated GILD earnings were up over 600% in 2 years, revenue about 300% and shares were up 33%. The growth that few could see coming this year will continue.
    Nov 7, 2015. 08:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead - Good Newsflow Accelerates; All-Time Highs Now Achievable [View article]
    Well said DrX

    I agree that GILD could make a move soon for many reasons. China I am less sure about. However as you say GILD is suggesting the HCV market is much larger than current forecasts. 75% of HCV infected are Baby Boomers who are rapidly moving to Medicare and it is not a good idea to delay treatment.

    After listening to the earnings call I became much more bullish on GILD again. I remain overweighted.
    Nov 6, 2015. 11:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant Crashes Again - Some Comments [View instapost]
    Great call DrX!

    Double that on a GILD buy. Significant upside and little downside on that trade.
    Nov 5, 2015. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Prescription For Valeant [View article]
    I would like to see Ackman's actual trades on VRX.

    My concern is he could be manipulating the value. Selling and shorting while holding a 4 hour press conference supporting the company. Then dumping shares at a profit as news comes to light and minimizing his original exposure.

    Suggesting that he is taking opposite positions on different days out of a patriotic decency and fairness seems unlikely.
    Nov 5, 2015. 04:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron Accelerates In Q3: A Review Of The Quarter, The Company, And A Look Ahead [View article]
    REGN really looks great long term. I wish I had more than a token number of shares.

    Unfortunately I cant invest heavily in every biotech and properly manage risk. What I can do is follow the PCSK9 scripts and shift when trends become apparent. It would not surprise me if I end up paying more for shares later on.

    PCSK9 is the driver in my mind and I would not want to be without a proper allocation of shares for the company with the leading PCSK9 drug. That said REGN is not cheap and I think a better risk reward opportunity will arrive for the patient investor.
    Nov 4, 2015. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotechs Blast Off: Could The 1999 Scenario Be In Play? [View article]
    One of DrX many strengths is a balanced risk reward consideration of biotech which I appreciate.

    That said, I tend not to find a lot of value in comparing 2015 to 1998 but I do try to keep my awareness of GAAP vs non GAAP differential ingrained.

    I am very bullish on GILD as growth exceeds all expectations, competitors have dropped out of the picture, pricing looks stronger and market share expectations are higher. Both GILD and some independent research suggests the HCV market may be larger than expected and the GILD HIV products look to grow.

    When last I calculated from the 2013 announcement of earnings in early 2014 GILD earnings were up 690%, revenue about 300% and share price up 33% using my expected 2015 EPS. GILD trades at less than 50% of the average SP500 PE. A group that has declining revenue and earnings I might add.

    I am hopeful that CELG will deliver along with my small position in REGN. Really I feel fortunate to have found growing companies without paying a growth premium in the past 6 weeks.

    Anyone know a great author who could critique BXLT?
    Nov 3, 2015. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Potential Acquisition Candidates [View article]
    Regarding BXLT

    BXLT wants a chance to spread its wings with 20 new products by 2020 according to a recent article. GILD would do better to try a partnership approach since BXLT doesnt want to sell and likely cant be forced to sell.

    BXLT may need resources to fund its growth. GILD could try to partner with BXLT on a few drugs and make an investment in shares. A 10% position and some partnered drugs for $3 billion would be a smart investment.
    Nov 3, 2015. 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Potential Acquisition Candidates [View article]
    I enjoyed the authors attempt. GILD strategy and thinking might go like this.

    - GILD would pay for a Cornerstone drug and has stated that is something they are looking for. Such as Sovaldi from Pharmasset.
    - GILD is interested in small acquisitions that would advance current areas, HBV, NASH, Oncology
    - GILD (John Milligan) has stated that they want developmental assets at stage 3 with strong data where the company can add value in bringing to market and maximize potential
    - GILD needs additional existing drug revenue to diversify HCV dependence
    - GILD essentially said no on VRTX
    - INCY is too expensive to pay for a company without significant revenue
    - BXLT doesnt want to sell. If they did they are one of the few companies with $6 bil of revenue and a pipeline.
    - The Board of Directors it seems wants an acquisition stating they wanted GILD mgt to be open to all ideas and not to focus narrowly.

    While I enjoyed the analysis, basing acquisitions on Pharmasset is probably not indicative of GILDs future. GILDs BOD feels the pressure from shareholders to increase value. How that works out will be very interesting.
    Nov 3, 2015. 09:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2015 [View article]
    I guess it is going to be after 4Q earnings when the capitulation occurs.
    Nov 2, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Continues To Deliver [View article]

    I understand where you are coming from as you are looking back and AMGN had a period of slow growth. If you are looking forward however it is a well run company with 2 major drugs in Repatha and Romosozumab which could double the value.

    I find it to be a great risk reward opportunity for investors of any age. I should add that a 20%+ return since it came public in the 1980s is a very nice return.
    Nov 2, 2015. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment