Seeking Alpha

jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Very Next Stock I Would Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    It is the KO plan that has analysts guiding to a 8.5% earnings drop next quarter and less than 1% for 2015.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Very Next Stock I Would Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    Might I suggest it is because T has been stagnant with growing debt and that dividend is really just a return of your own investment dollars disguised as giving you something.

    For the record I sold out of T a couple years ago but would actually upgrade it to a "D" today. Reason being it is nearer fair value.

    The significance of Friday nights announcement after everyone went home is lower future earnings and higher Pension contributions going forward.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Bearish Thesis On Crude [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I would just add additional bearish risk views.

    1) The history of Oil I know has pain and companies going belly up and stocks in the single digits before it lets up after a historic drop.

    2) The Oil stocks continue to trade like we have $75-$80 Oil. Let them report a few quarters (or even 1 quarter) with massive cash outflows. Let them get over the disbelief stage to where they are more focused on survival.

    3) Everyone pumping as much as they can trying to keep nose above water all over the world.

    4) Hedging went out of style as everyone thought Oil could only go up. Turns out now cash coming in is down 50%.

    5) Reminds me of a song "We've only just begun"


    Perhaps history would suggest that investors wait to invest until after

    1) Oil actually hits a convincing bottom.
    2) Some companies go out of business or get bought out
    3) Fear actually presents itself with CEOs explaining very hard decisions to stay in business
    4) Separation of the weakest from the less weak companies

    Then perhaps invest in stages. Oil tends to stay down much longer than anyone thinks is possible. If Oil stayed where it is today or even below $60 for 1 year the share prices of Oil stocks could be down 50%.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Very Next Stock I Would Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    Two views of the world

    For the record I own KO and recognize that it is going to pay a dividend and stay in business for a long time to come. KO has a great historical view. Further I am placing more emphasis on the historical view these days.

    At the same time I think investors should consider a forward view. When one takes a forward view some easy items to note include

    - a 21 PE for negative 1 year growth and 3% projected 5 year growth

    - a dividend increase history that looks like history considering 66% of earnings go to the dividend and little EPS growth.

    - dare I suggest $42 bil in debt on $46 bil in revenue is meaningful and much higher than historical, though I acknowledge KO is strong financially. Interesting how the debt increase over the past few years matches the share purchase amount.

    - Is it possible that a focus on health changes a 2X historical PE premium on sugar water back toward a normal PE level?

    So again I own most of the stocks in the portfolio and look at stocks historically. At the same time one shouldnt be afraid to look forward. Especially since during the time KO accumulated that great history it had a PE from 40 all the way up to 88.

    Perhaps no one is crowing about the returns of the 20+ PE companies with minimal to negative growth that they owned 20 years ago.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why Every Serious Investor Should Read Barrons [View article]
    I appreciate the article!

    I have read Barron's sporadically for years. You have inspired me to subscribe again.

    The comments are interesting as well. On a recent vacation I got up and read the WSJ each morning. Such a refreshing alternative to other mainstream choices.

    From blogs to Kiplinger I always look for fresh sources of information. It is hard not to enjoy the Kiplinger writing style as an example. I must admit however I have enjoyed Barron's as much as any single publication over the years except perhaps for the WSJ itself.
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Corp.: A Full Explanation Of The Loss [View article]
    I was hopeful BAC would show better results but am sitting tight with my holdings.

    BAC grew its businesses and clearly moved past recovery and litigation. The BAC and C earnings calls could not have been more different as an example. BAC talked about growing businesses and improved productivity while C discussed Citi Holdings and government litigation.

    With an environment that at the moment is not supportive of bank profit increases I choose not to purchase additional shares and remain underweighted. BAC is my largest banking position.

    BAC is a good value at 10.5 X 2015 EPS estimates. Should the financial impact of Oil/Mineral/Interest Rate drops create a profitable opportunity, I will consider purchasing more shares.
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: A Bullish Update [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I like the longer term perspective of 5 years. I am in for the long haul.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Gilead In 2015: It's Going To Be A Bumpy Ride [View article]
    Great article!

    I would just add that at some point in 2015 the pipeline will create some excitement and the stock could soar well past $135.

    Then 15 X 9.88 2015 EPS est = $148.20 seems reasonable.

    The article captured a detailed outlook on GILD one year prospects. Amazing command of both GILD and Industry outlook!

    Tip of the hat to Pharma Doc!
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Gilead In 2015: It's Going To Be A Bumpy Ride [View article]
    As I recall I was able to get shares with $86.xx bid but did not get additional shares with a $85 bid
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article!

    GILD is one of my larger positions for 2015 and beyond. It is a great value below $100.

    - any wild ABBV threat is over
    - agree earnings in early Feb should drive shares higher
    - the pipeline is focused on driving significant value
    - India is irrelevant to GILD
    - all GILD product areas performing well
    - significantly undervalued shares
    - GILD has resources to make deals for addl drug growth

    on the other hand

    - I wonder how and when the $125MM payment for fast track license will get expensed. Hopefully not all in 4Q.

    - GILD will continue to trade widely on small irrelevant pieces of news until the huge variance of analysts Hep C estimates get reduced

    - expect Biotech to take some hits this year and GILD with it but at a lesser rate

    I am purposely backing off and taking a higher level view of GILD. The risk is that I continue to be a GILD news junkie and end up trading GILD.

    Right or wrong I own GILD as a longer term investment. I look at 2014 and think GILD as a company doubled its value. But the stock disagrees so far.

    Every bit of logic suggests the coming earnings should move the stock higher in a few weeks. The reality is the market will probably find a way to be unimpressed.

    I just think if I sell GILD I lose even if I get a 100% gain. Be long and strong and you wont be wrong!
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: McDermott And General Electric Announce A New Oil And Gas Joint Venture [View article]
    Nothing GE does surprises me.

    If GE is involved, decline is eminent. Nothing in the last decade has been accretive to value. They should enter sewage treatment. At least then they could say it was shit before they got involved.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Crash: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Truth [View article]
    It probably best for people to let Oil find a convincing bottom. We are in a historic Oil drop/bust. It would be different than any history I am aware of if Oil jumped above $70 in 2015 and share prices hardly reflect $85 Oil yet as we are in the disbelief stage.

    The author talks about 1986 but Oil really busted earlier in 1981/1982. By 1988 I could buy dozens of Oil companies for less than $5 a share and many at $1 or $2. Those were the ones that survived. By then I figured those were survivors and bought based on value of proven reserves.

    Before investing at least let Oil hit a bottom where it could hang for years. Let a few companies go belly up and some rational fear enter the market. Consider the possibility that Oil stocks may perform like banking and in crashes lose 90% or more of their value.

    Which reminds me of the definition of a 90% market correction. That is an 80% correction that just got cut in half again.

    For the record I am not negative on the rest of the economy and I am not selling other stocks. Near end of 2014 I sold my COP at $70 as the price was down 1% for the year and Oil down 46%.
    Jan 15, 2015. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss Franc And Credibility [View article]
    I cant complain about my Nestle, Roche or UBS shares.

    Not sure I understand the full rationale yet. My guess is

    - the EU wanted a weaker Euro
    - definitely strengthens the Swiss currency for the Swiss banks
    - why keep ties to a troubled Euro currency
    - Lots of money has probably been moving to CHF from Russia and Europe stressing the rate fix

    I will let others cry over Hedge fund losses.
    Jan 15, 2015. 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America's (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    BAC is at a good long term shareholder entry point.

    People are a little nervous about banking with rates dropping along with Oil and Mineral values. Fundamentally however BAC is doing well in its businesses and continuing to reduce costs. It has the litigation behind it and is well capitalized.

    If you invest when banks have a huge NIM and higher rates you will find shares much higher. I find BAC refreshingly clean without major problems and valued at about an expected 10.5 PE on 2015 earnings.
    Jan 15, 2015. 05:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Makes The Case For Active Management [View article]
    I enjoy active investing but it takes discipline to be your own boss.

    If you want to take an S&P level risk it was hard to beat the S&P performance in 2014. Typically if the market doesnt fall more than 10% in a year, investors are not going to beat the market return without taking even larger risk.

    a few thoughts...

    As an investor nearing retirement age the appropriate risk decreases if your assets are under $2MM

    A goal of staying at least 80% invested at all times can eliminate a lot of underperformance.

    If most of your stock is in companies with declining revenue the odds are against success.

    If you are doing a lot of trading you are providing computerized trading systems most of the profits.

    As I entered 2015 I was overweight healthcare with JNJ and GILD a couple of the holdings.

    Oil/Mineral holds promise in 2015. Let it play out before investing. Oil stocks are still high for the price of Oil (ie at end of 2014 COP shares down 1% and Oil down 46% for the year). Be fashionably late instead of leading with your chin. Oil historically drops much farther and stays down longer than anyone can imagine.

    Make sure the bottom is in and some companies have exploded before investing in Oil. Right now everybody thinks they can continue to explore and pump more Oil. Cant imagine being long before March earnings are reported and possibly much later.

    Hope you find something of value in this comment.

    PS Delaying SS until 70 is a wonderful inflation protected 8% guaranteed annual gain. If married 10 years to an ex spouse who is at full retirement age consider drawing on their SS and let yours continue to grow.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,587 Comments
3,470 Likes