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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Freeport McMoRan to cut 2016 capex by another $1.6B [View news story]
    I am so shocked that FCX is cutting Capex :)
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean A Hold Despite Dividend Suspension And $2 Billion New Impairment Charge [View article]
    RIG is worth studying and understanding well!

    I figure after 3Q EPS come in a first buy stage will arrive. Likely below $10 after Oil capitulates and a 20% of intended position purchase.

    I am guessing it will test its lows again and another 30% position. Take it easy as it took a long time to get here and it will take time to get out of this over supply issue.

    After the bottom is in and tested buy the rest of the position and you should have a decade long huge winning position. At least that is the history of Oil busts.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better 6% Dividend Stock: ConocoPhillips Or Chevron? [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    CVX can at least be a buyer of distressed assets and build for the long term even if Oil hasnt hit bottom.

    With COP I guess dividend investors can feel better if COP borrows money to pay the dividend rather than not borrow money and not pay the dividend. They will have losses on the profit line either way.
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: Buy This Dividend Gold Mine As The Market Panics [View article]
    If you are unable to buy JNJ at a great price their may not be much hope for you as an investor!
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On The Market Correction; Focus On Biotechs: Large Caps [View article]
    Nice Summary!

    So I took the opportunity this past week to add shares of several names and I feel strong about the earnings prospects moving forward for each company.

    At the same time I am not excited about the market prospects for the next 6 weeks. Hard to believe just over 1 month remains in 3Q.

    At the end of the day while these stocks could drop I find less risk in rising earnings stories. True innovation and the growth that comes with it is difficult to find and harder still to find at a fair price.

    If an investor wants a particular company a reasonably low bid has a good chance of succeeding over the next few weeks. I could consider more GILD at $99 (8.4 2015 PE) , CELG at 18 PE or AMGN at 15X 2015 estimates $146. Other than that I am sitting tight through earnings.
    Aug 26, 2015. 03:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Bank Of America Deserve A 52-Week Low? [View article]
    I sold 50% of my BAC holdings a couple of weeks ago at $18 and I am sorry I didnt sell all.

    It isnt that BAC is a poor investment as much as my outlook. I see a commodity collapse and banking will likely get included before it is over. Perhaps not from direct lending as much as indirect to Hedge Funds and Private Equity types and others.

    If you invest now... dont get cold feet in 6 weeks if you are down big!
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Strategy Shift And Asset Sales Come High On Agenda [View article]
    Having to sell assets at the current level of Oil price is a failure of its own. I think the new strategy will be to survive.

    After or around the 3Q earnings report I believe I may have the opportunity to buy. If at that time Oil is lower and cash flow is significantly worse it will be close enough to a low to buy some shares. After the rebound low a few months later perhaps a full position.

    In Oil the early bird gets crushed!
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Correction And Green Light Signals New Buying Opportunity For Investors [View article]
    Don

    Jump in and buy all the GE you want!

    Another day, another article on how great it is to invest in GE.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Will Get Worse Before It Gets Any Better [View article]
    I note another new low on this day and the stock now trading at 25% of enterprise value. I may buy a few shares in Sept but I suspect a late October low. It will be a cruel 3Q earnings season for the entire industry.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips - A Durable Oil Company With Upside [View article]
    I think you would do better to let Oil reach its low before investing in COP.

    It is not just that the price is likely to drop. The history of Oil crashes is one where prices drop farther and stay down longer than anyone can imagine. Consider that ZIRP and easy money have flooded the world with Oil.

    You are kidding yourself if you think that dividend is completely safe. So far we havent even reached the point where companies feel the need to cut back.

    I heard the same viewpoint offered at the beginning of the year when COP was at $69. Personally I sold COP at end of 2014 at $69 down 1% for that year when Oil was down 40%. COP was proud at that time to state in the 10k that they didnt believe in hedging.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire For Retirement Income [View article]
    I just question if BRK has the special qualities moving forward that it has in the past. How much longer can you count on Buffett?

    Personally I focus on total return anyway rather than just dividend return. While I like dividends my goal is to have a portfolio that increases in value each year. If you confine yourself to only dividend companies you can easily end up with companies that provide a lower return but send you a check.

    Take KO which reached its current level over 3 years ago. The 3% dividend is a poor return. PG and T same story. If not for the ACA, add MRK, PFE and LLY to that list.

    If 3% is your goal in life good luck to you!
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Swoon Moves GE To Long-Term Buy Column [View article]
    Ignor the poor profitability and high debt if you like.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 21st Century Transition Is Failing [View article]
    I enjoyed an interesting and unique perspective.

    It doesnt take a genius to see that Rometty is destroying IBM.

    I try not to forget that IBM with proper leadership is a very profitable company. Unfortunately a huge transition is going to have to occur and it will start with a change at the top and on the BOD.

    For now the only question is how much of a massive revenue loss IBM can blame on currency translation.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Swoon Moves GE To Long-Term Buy Column [View article]
    I just thought I would check and see if GE paid someone to pump their stock today.

    Question

    If return on assets is 1.69% would that imply they are overvalued?
    Aug 25, 2015. 01:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Pipeline, Part 3, With Summary Comments [View article]
    Yes but if I calculate my portfolio today vs Friday I am a loser like everyone else. Still I think GILD investors have the ability to make money almost like the old days. Consider DRx thinks GILD could be worth $200 and it trades at $100.

    Some quick points first preparing for tomorrow est of Price/2015 EPS and 2016 growth expected. I am a little more bullish on GILD than these numbers on growth as GILD lowballs expectations.

    JNJ 92.82/6.17 = 15.04 PE 3.70% growth expected
    GILD 100.65/11.80 = 8.53 PE - 0.5% growth expected
    MRK 53.99/3.51 = 15.37 PE 8.8% growth expected
    CELG 113.38 / 4.78 = 23.72 PE 24.50% growth expected
    AMGN 147.64/9.75 = 15.14 PE 10% growth expected

    I think every one of them is a steal. Go ahead subtract Oil effects and China from them as well.

    GILD was a battleground today jumping around like crazy.

    GILD has a very small LT investor base as it doesnt appeal to Value investors who distrust biotech, and most biotech investors want more forward growth. Computer generated programs appeared to be buying on value and trumped by those needing cash with the result being large bounces.

    So where does money go? I dont think Financials, Tech, Oil, Exporters, Emerging markets, Commodities, Industrials or Bonds for very long.

    If you are an investor and
    Very conservative - JNJ
    Conservative - MRK
    Smart (my opinion) - GILD, AMGN
    Committed to Growth - CELG

    I bought JNJ, GILD, AMGN and CELG and left a little powder for the future. The carnage may run for awhile but probably over by November.

    My investing thesis is that Oil will bust and financials will get included before it is over. After Oil gets shot, stomped on and buried I will get interested. If financials get destroyed I am interested.

    GILD and JNJ are no brainers. Is the FCF yield really 13.5% on GILD?
    Aug 24, 2015. 05:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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