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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Where's The Turnaround At Hewlett-Packard? [View article]
    The article is a little negative from my perspective. I focus on valuation and cash flow given roughly flat revenue. HPQ has huge free cash flow for its market cap. It has been able to pay down debt, buy back stock and invest in its business.

    HPQ appears to this investor as fairly valued with equal upside and downside opportunity. For portfolio allocations to technology HPQ has better return potential than the hypergrowth mobile/cloud or other older technology plays.

    On the other side HPQ has benefitted from buying back shares at a 4 PE when the leadership was the among the worst in corporate history. I have to give some credit to Whitman yet also recognize that she glows by being compared to total idiots preceding her.

    Finally Andressen should be removed from BOD. He was a leader initiating HPQs failures.
    Mar 20 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things To Know About Bank Of America Right Now [View article]
    Just wanted to add that BAC is a good longer term play. However in the short term some issues could arise.

    - huge profits from Merrill Lynch unit last year were largely due to the rise in markets and absent this quarter.

    - huge mortgage profits are already indicated to be down by perhaps double digits

    - funds set aside for write offs were added back to earnings last year and appear to be subtracted from earnings this year.
    Mar 17 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: More Positives For The Stock [View article]
    I would add that there are a number of us disgruntled GE investors out here and are more motivated to post comments.

    GE has the business, cash flow, and the assets to grow share value much more rapidly. It is typical of GE in the Immelt era to announce in fall 2013 an IPO of part of GE capital with the intention of driving the price higher. Then nothing happens and the stock falls.

    I dislike activists in general but GE may well be deserving of activist attention. Under Immelt GE cannot remain a conglomerate.
    Mar 17 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Replace P&G With Unilever [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I would just add that I diversified my PG into Nestle and PG several years ago and last year moved into Unilever.

    I couldnt stand to leave money invested with McDonald, the former CEO running the company. As much as I like PG an investor cant ignore that PG has grown lethargic with decreasing annual NI over the past several years.

    As an example in the past 5 years my Nestle shares are up 140% and my PG is up about 80% for a 60% net difference. I will probably always own a little PG but I cant afford to give up 60% of return.
    Mar 14 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Will Continue To Grow [View article]
    As a long term GE investor I think I will offer a different view.

    GE does need the money and that is why they are borrowing. GE is not a highly rated company anymore and still utilizes commercial paper (ie short term financing) to fund long term investments.

    The stock is probably dead money for the next 6 months as GE pushes out the planned IPO into a 6th year after the crash. I would prefer that the IPO occur asap in a good market rather than wait and delay. This is especially true when they appeared to indicate to investors the IPO would be just after the turn of the year and caused the stock price to rise at the end of 2013.

    I am not all negative however as I do think an industrial rebound based on low energy prices among other things sets GE up to perform. I am just disappointed that 5 years has come and gone and GE is still in cleanup mode. A part of me sees delays, excuses, lethargy and inaction as well as the many positive aspects to GE.
    Mar 13 11:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase: 5 Reasons To Consider Buying Over Bank Of America [View article]
    Interesting comparison. Why not buy and own both?
    Mar 10 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel An Embarrassment? No. [View article]
    Anyone can say anything!

    As an investor INTC stock seems expensive for the level of doubt that is legitimate. Watching INTC I believe that a fair buy value is around $20 share.

    For a company that has admitted it isnt going to achieve anything in 2014 (ie flat guidance) $24+ seems high. If an investor weighs in some level of doubt perhaps a fair share value is $22. However to invest in INTC one needs an incentive thus perhaps $20 as a purchase price.

    With a nice little correction the INTC share repurchase would be overcome and the price would seek more of a fair value. If not an investor can live quite well without INTC in their portfolio.
    Mar 7 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi discovers fraud in Mexican unit; cuts Q4 earnings [View news story]
    For interested investors I will offer a perspective on C.

    C has always had huge international lending operations and ends up getting in trouble at least once a decade. The share prices on multiple occasions have dropped by 90% or more ie $100 to $8 or $50+ down to .95c.

    This little Mexico event is small potatoes as an event but it is symbolic of huge shareholder losses over an investing lifetime. One should recognize the business model risk of C in a time of international troubles and take care to ensure a potential reward is adequate vs the risk taken.
    Feb 28 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Comcast [View article]
    Excellent article but a little one sided.

    As an investor I keep an eye on cable companies and I do think CMCSK and other cable companies are highly valued. The patient investor can make money when cable companies periodically get crushed. The swings in valuation are much higher in cable companies historically than in other industries during turbulent times.

    Still much of the negativity in this article is overdone and the avoid these funds section implies an agenda. I especially enjoyed the things that only help management statement like additional profits, cash flow and revenue!
    Feb 28 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of 2 Nasdaqs: This Bubble Is Real [View article]
    I agree with the authors thesis that momentum stocks are high but do want to add a few thoughts.

    NFLX

    NFLX value can be supported as it really is a new network with worldwide potential growing revenue at 24% over the past year. They have their own content and the agreement with Comcast is important. It trades at 11 x free cash flow. I no longer own NFLX but suspect in a market drop NFLX might drop less than some value alternatives.

    AMZN

    My only point is to refute those who think AMZN doesnt make money. A $75 bil revenue company growing at 20% annually funds this growth internally. Each $ of revenue increase drives competitors out of business and AMZN now has significant power over shipping prices.

    For valuation I think cash flow is the best measure. AMZN trades at 30 x last years operating cash flow. It is possible it is trading at 20 x 2014 operating cash flow but that is a guess. Once again dont be surprised if AMZN drops less than value alternatives come correction time.

    I am a value investor because I am more risk averse and it is difficult to watch these names rise rapidly while great long term companies languish. Still it does not add value to blindly cry bubble for every stock that rises.
    Feb 28 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Delivers Under Meg Whitman's Guidance [View article]
    I would add that HPQ is a good counterpunch alternative for investors. By that I mean HPQ has been dropped from the DJI and gets little attention from investors.

    With a very low valuation and improving earnings fundamentals HPQ could have a significant upside even in a down market. The decline of the PC business isnt news. The news is that PC's still have a place in this world as does HPQ's other high cash flow businesses.
    Feb 27 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Worst-Case Scenario [View article]
    Interesting article and especially the company comparisons!
    Feb 27 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sleep Well At Night Owning This Blue Chip Health Care REIT [View article]
    The author needs to write more articles on VTR hoping to pump up the price. After all he found a stock that lost 12.5% of its value last year. Thats only about 40% below the market return for 2013.

    Perhaps the author should try Yoga or sleeping pills for that good nights sleep?
    Feb 26 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Vs. Apple Vs. Google: A Bond Market Battle [View article]
    Good article and detail!

    I like to take a more expansive view of bonds. When I take that view CSCO with nearly 50 billion in cash and 9.44 bil in FCF seems like a pretty good risk. The bond risk that would bother me is to purchase lower rated, higher risk bonds with little additional yield to maturity.

    With the Fed Funds rate at 0.07% and near the lowest interest rates in the history of civilization perhaps the best answer is to just say no to longer term bonds. After all the value of the longer bond may decline faster than the small interest payment.
    Feb 26 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    The author should be on Immelt's PR staff.

    Just remember Immelt stated the dividend was safe days before it was sliced back in 2008. My point is dont expect the truth to get in the way of an Immelt statement. Gas does seem to have a strong future but this is far from a balanced article.

    As a shareholder I would prefer someone more competent. Someone smart enough to manage GE. Someone that 5 years after collapsing a AAA company would have taken significant steps to turn the company around.
    Feb 26 12:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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