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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Still In The Lead Or Lagging Behind? An Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    GILD shares are at a great value in my opinion.

    I am fully invested but may purchase some additional shares. I already did that after the 3Q earnings report and again in Dec with the ABBV scare. Still I didnt expect GILD would drop below $100 after 4Q2014 earnings in Feb.

    In most of 2014 I watched the disbelief in the potential of Sovaldi, then pricing at $1000 pill headlines with government threats, then all the competitors which have fallen by the way, then a drop off as Harvoni was launching and finally the ABBV scare. Each threat seems to knock the shares down only to be eliminated before the next threat arrives.

    GILD is expected to increase EPS by 50%+ again with 1Q2015 earnings but some excuse will probably arise. However one day in the not so distant future GILD is ready to shoot higher and it could go a long way.

    As it sits GILD is one of my favorite value plays and one of my favorite growth plays.
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    I could never invest a dollar in a company run by Ginni Rometty. She should be replaced by a competent alternative.
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Gilead Acquire Puma Biotechnology? [View article]
    I dont want to offer an opinion on Puma as I am not qualified. I do think that a $10 billion level purchase that boosted future growth could pay for itself by raising the PE on the existing GILD, in addition to what it would add. The cash would not seem to be a problem either.
    Mar 10, 2015. 10:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is hefty specialty drug spending the new normal? [View news story]
    With huge groundbreaking innovation symbolized by Hep C cures and huge progress in cancer treatment as well as orphan diseases, pharma is exploding. I would just make the point that the increased costs are due in part to the added value of medical advancement.

    For investors perhaps a couple of things to consider include

    - The systems ability to pay for new treatments has limits

    - recognize that pharma is a long term growing business
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Still In The Lead Or Lagging Behind? An Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    Thanks for the article!

    I think I would place more value in INF if some of the logic was discussed. Just to say a stock will go down and then up doesnt really mean much to most investors.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Might Have The Last Laugh Over AbbVie Winning Pharmacyclics [View article]
    I understand the JNJ need for a stronger pipeline. If EPS estimates for JNJ were positive in the coming quarter rather than negative and more than the 5%+ growth was expected for any future term JNJ would would have a significantly higher valuation.

    ABBV just needed PCYC worse than JNJ who will get 50% of PCYC successes anyway. I dont have an opinion on MDVN but suspect JNJ will strike with an acquisition in 2015. The correct action could add $30 billion to the valuation of JNJ's existing assets say if growth over the next few years was projected at 10%+.
    Mar 10, 2015. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials gain post-stress test and as rates rise [View news story]
    I think lots of banks are at very fair valuations. That includes BAC which may be the best investment.

    Banks do not have much risk on their balance sheets and they are priced at valuations suggesting a 1.9% 10 year yield rather than a 2.2% 10 year yield. I am starting to see an economy that is positive for banking profits.
    Mar 9, 2015. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dow Inclusion Good For All Parties [View article]
    Personally I think AAPL being added to the Dow is irrelevant. If anything it probably signals its growth is nearing an end. Getting rid of T was a good move.

    The chart on C forgot the 10 to 1 reverse split and otherwise was marginally relevant.
    Mar 9, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $10 version of Sovaldi available in Bangladesh [View news story]
    The interesting point to me in this article is that Bangladesh has WTO approval to ignore patent law.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron Jumps Ahead In $10 Billion Race For Next Generation Cardio Drugs [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    I will take another view just to bring out some concerns investors should have. Few investors of significance are unaware of PSCK9, its potential or Regeneron's launch status.

    Perhaps that is why a little $2.8 billion revenue company is trading for a $43 billion market cap. Some PE investors might see risk in a 137 PE or 15.5 X Revenue valuation. Others might recognize that the PSCK9 field is crowded and splitting proceeds among partners cuts any success in half.

    Interesting GILD was used as an example of a 1st mover advantage. Despite having 100% of the action on one of the most successful launches in history GILDs stock only rose about 25% last year, and they still dont really have much competition. Which brings me to paying for potential and how if something goes wrong it can be a long way down.

    I could pick on REGNs puny margins but I am not a hater. In fact I own some REGN which I thankfully bought at much lower prices. I am just trying to say that in a 4 year move pretty much straight up for biotech, potential can get very expensive.

    Should you discover REGN just recognize you arent another Christopher Columbus!
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acquisition Boosts AbbVie's Long Term Prospects [View article]
    I will add a few thoughts on the ABBV buyout of PCYC.

    Lets face it ABBV hasn’t launched a successful drug in a decade. Further Viekira projections are nothing if not wildly optimistic.

    ABBV has great financial leadership and cash flow to match with PCYCs great research and pipeline.

    It was an expensive acquisition and ABBV paid more than they would have liked but did get quality assets. They will no longer be an old time pharmaceutical company wearing a biotech mask. They were able to use some cash which wasn’t earning much and overvalued stock to pay for the merger so it may work out.

    As an investor I am not interested at current pricing and remain skeptical. However as 2016 arrives and threats grow larger before new products emerge I may find an entry point. I am hopeful that ABBV can put the pieces together and be a great long term biotech leader, but I suspect a bumpy road before that could happen, if it happens.
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Mylan, And J&J: Cheap Compared To Peers [View article]
    133

    You make many interesting points with a longer term strategic thinking and I appreciate your perspective.

    I havent sold my Biotech holdings and dont have any intention to do so. I do think we are in a century of growth for Biotech solutions. That said I am not chasing Biotech or adding at the moment as I am having a hard time seeing value.

    That is with the exception of GILD which I suspect will meet or beat analyst projections for a 53% EPS increase in 1Q2015. My guess is the stock will rise when that happens.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Mylan, And J&J: Cheap Compared To Peers [View article]
    133...

    I think you are drinking the Kool Aid.

    I like Biotech and I am invested in Biotech stocks and their rapid growth. Still my assessment of why that growth is occurring would be primarily

    - Obamacare restricting government drug pricing controls
    - The US economic need for a growing industry
    - pent up demand from years prior to 2012 with few FDA approvals

    Even a true believer should recognize that all Biotech stocks have been rising at similar rates over the past 3 years. That much of healthcare has been growing for the same reasons. Finally that the industry will have winners and losers in the future.

    After gains of the IBB at nearly 200% above the S&P500 returns since 2012 I view Biotech much like telecom in the year 2000. It looked like a rapidly growing industry with a bright future ahead. ATT touched $60 a share.

    That doesnt mean I dont think GILD and AMGN are special opportunities. It doesnt mean I dont see potential in CELG, REGN, BIIB, ILMN or other long term holdings.

    It just means that what goes up can come down. I will bet on gravity before I bet on technology replacing gravity. Who is to say the Biotech run is over? I am just saying that one day it will be over.
    Mar 7, 2015. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: This One Chart May Spell 'The End' For Immelt [View article]
    Your comment symbolizes what is wrong with GE, its management and Board of Directors. They live in the 1980s and blame the CEO of that century, never really able to comprehend that they are leaders and bear responsibility.

    You probably worked for GE and trusted GE to be a good investment. I am sorry that your trust was misplaced. Blaming Jack Welch or advocating a highly cyclical Oil and Gas industry as an investment is very much like Immelt's thinking.

    I would hire you as an English teacher before I would hire Jeff Immelt in a managerial capacity.
    Mar 7, 2015. 03:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Mylan, And J&J: Cheap Compared To Peers [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I remain concerned about overall biotech valuations and especially the betting on potential. With GILD however I see actual product sales growing and a PE suggesting growth isnt possible. Just today I notice a 10%+ increase in sales volume for the Hep C drugs Sovaldi/Harvoni from January to February. Those sales make up over 50% of GILDs revenue.

    I also like JNJ for its growth vs valuation. However I would add that during the past 5 years big traditional pharma have had near zero or negative growth including PFE, LLY, GSK, BMY and several others. Yet they sport PEs of 24, 31, 27, 51 rather than a 14 for GILD.

    Lots of Healthcare stocks have surged in all areas partially on the back of Obamacare. With 50% EPS growth projected in 1Q 2015 and script data supporting that expectation I believe GILD merits an investment.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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