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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Assessing Gilead's Reality-Perception Gap [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I would just make the point that the ABBV competition is likely to increase the size of the 2015 Hep C market. I already see the advertising and promotion occurring. Perhaps ABBV can take 10% of a market that increases by 20%.

    On another note GILD is down today suggesting some news is affecting the price. Perhaps just getting ahead of ABBV announcement. Personally I think investors should have more concern for economic worries which have limited impact on GILD.
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Saudi Arabia Thinking? [View article]

    Just want to offer that Saudi Arabia has a complex set of influences. Those include

    1) Saudi recognition that taking all the pain in production cuts to avoid having an industry restructuring would be risky and probably fail. With a supply imbalance, allowing another $1+ trillion of investment in 2015 would be pointless.

    2) Saudi enemies were benefiting the most including Iran and ISIS. That even includes Sheiks inside Saudi that were funding ISIS.

    3) The G7 led by the US secures the Saudis Royal family as rulers

    4) Avoid allowing Oil prices to drive energy needs away from Oil

    5) Serving the world economic needs. It may not be a coincidence that after Putin threatened World leaders with Nukes at a meeting in Australia last month this Oil blowup has occurred.

    6) Saudis probably negotiated their prices for a couple years ahead of their decision. Their pain may not be as advertised.
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE: What To Look For In GE's Annual Outlook Meeting [View article]

    Things I dont look forward to hearing

    1) A view that expresses honesty and integrity in its outlook
    2) An increase in EPS guidance
    3) An admission that by moving into Oil in a big way GE shareholder risk is higher
    4) The recognition that GEs financial components valuation has decreased in the past month
    5) An admission that Immelt is the worst CEO in the history of GE
    6) That the dividend is increasingly maxed out. It was 68% of earnings before the increase and now an increase of 5% on earnings that may decrease in 2015.
    7) That $37 per share in debt is too much for a company tied to Oil and Financial
    8) That GE is highly levered with 60% of capitalization debt and 40% equity. (ie 374 bil debt/ $374 bil +$249 bil shares)
    9) That debt could get downgraded from BBB ( It was AAA when Immelt became CEO)

    I sense that the media is finally willing to consider criticizing GE. Up until now it has been almost illegal to publicly criticize GE.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Looks Like It May Have More Downside [View article]
    As I write this comment Oil has moved meaningfully higher perhaps breaking the downward spiral and XOM shares are up to $88.25.

    My guess is that XOM is not a great value at this level because as the author points out the 5 year prospects for XOM are diminished. Oil dropped about 50% in 6 months and XOM is down about 15%. Factors to consider

    Even if Oil has bottomed and we suggest a $75-$80 1 year price which is certainly not a bearish scenario, the runoff of Oil price hedging does not suggest much in the way of gains.

    I could well see Oil stabilizing and Oil shares dropping further to reflect the reality of future earnings potential and the actual valuation of proven reserves.

    Dec 16, 2014. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market - My Best Large-Cap Stock Portfolio: Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Thanks for the article!

    Regarding GILD vs ABBV in the Hep C market I have been thinking that perhaps investors are not considering a possible development.

    It may be that the competition actually increases the 2015 Hep C market size. Consider that both companies have TV advertising campaigns already on a limited basis. Since Hep C is a large market with many people unaware that they have it, or not having symptoms, it is possible that the market could increase in size faster than an inferior ABBV competitive product takes share.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM Really In Such Bad Shape? [View article]
    I am convinced that what we have on this board are investors and IBM paid commenters.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Join The Gilead Bandwagon [View article]
    Menicholas

    All the best to you! Your story brings a human element to this affliction.

    As I try to make a buck I will keep in mind the horrible consequences of this affliction.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    Great article asking a timely question!

    I would just add that while the 1-2 year timeline exists for the decline, it is difficult to watch for several additional years for Oil to appreciate to its prior level.

    I am saying that investors often cant help themselves as they quickly buy during the falling knife period and are unable to wait sometimes many years for the price to reach its prior level.

    Right now every producer is pumping as much as they can to stay afloat. Some will fail, but many others will have to restrict exploration budgets to minimum levels for fear of survival. This is the phase we havent entered yet. Right now everyone is surprised and minimal level cutbacks are offered.

    History suggests that every bullish thought must be expunged and that even the strongest producers must focus on survival for a period before the imbalance is corrected. Even with experience in Oil I must recognize that my desire to buy is likely to be met with punishment in this phase.

    I really do believe we are nearing the bottom. Yet I also know that once a bottom is reached it will take many years to once again reach the prior top. So I wait for a bottom and hope that I can capture huge returns once again.

    Greed is the oil investors biggest risk and I hope you and I have the wisdom to wait for the false bottoms and the true bottom to emerge. In the early 1980s we fell down laughing at the first suggestion that the price of Oil could fall. It took a year or two before Oil finally hit and breeched $10 a barrel. It dropped something on the order of 80%-90%. As an example an 80% drop would be about $21 a barrel today.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: New Capital Plan A Drop In The Bucket [View article]
    I think we are near the low on Oil prices but would only invest further after a low is set.

    - One reason I say that is because in 2008 Oil bottomed near $40 under much worse conditions where economic activity dropped dramatically.

    - I note Libya has some Oil stoppage and a growing threat of Civil War

    - Demand increases from low prices can overcome smaller supply imbalances

    - one military event would raise prices significantly.

    COP is a great company with great assets yet at the same time it already has $21 billion in LT debt on the books and a large dividend of less than $4 billion to shoulder.

    A guess would be $80 Oil prices a year from now. Based on that I am not sure COP would have significant share price gains. While Oil is down perhaps 45% from 2014 peak COP shares are down 28%. I dont know what that means except that a bounce in Oil prices might not compensate for the hedging gain runoff.

    I am thinking COP wishes about now that they hadnt spun out Phillips 66.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unprecedented Dividend Growth Buying Opportunity Materializes [View article]
    Consider a GE investment carefully! Some things to ponder.

    1) Increased cyclicality do to the Oil business. It is silly to suggest that lower Oil drilling activity is going to be good for GE.

    2) The forward PE is low because few believe a significant increase in profits as projected lies ahead. One could guess that the developments of the last couple weeks will cause negative revisions.

    3) Does it seem a good idea to build an Oil service business with a financial entity on top of it? At least consider that risk piling on risk raises investor risk.

    A really negative way of looking at it is to look at the Oil Service risk, higher risk financial operations than most banks, and fund that in part with short term commercial paper.

    Sorry but this article is gibberish in my opinion.
    Dec 14, 2014. 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Stock Forecast: Algorithmic And Fundamental Analysis [View article]
    I was wondering if anyone knows much about GS-4774 phase II Hep B research?
    Dec 13, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Stock Forecast: Algorithmic And Fundamental Analysis [View article]
    I am privledged to read some of the best research and outstanding articles on GILD here on SA. Thanks to the author of this article even if it wasnt one of the best.
    GILD will deliver a PE for 2014 in early Feb estimated at 104.13/7.93= 13.13. That PE level suggests little growth is expected moving forward. Even an old time pharma company with expiring patents is valued much higher than that.
    So a few reasons I am invested in GILD are
    1) It is undervalued and should be about 16 X 2104 earnings minimum
    2) It has the ability to grow 2015 EPS and command a higher PE multiple as well
    3) It seems to have huge competitive advantages in both Hep C and HIV
    4) While its HCV prices are high it is a cure priced at a fraction of disease treatment costs
    5) While lots of investors like betting on a small unknown company breaking it big, GILD has hit it big at least 2 times and remains knocking on the door for more big breakthroughs.
    6) The overall way GILD manages markets like HIV and HCV is truly impressive. They dont sit and wait for patents to expire or for a competitor to make a discovery. They innovate and stay ahead of or even crush the competition.
    7) Look at competitors say a MRK whose revenue peaked in 2011 and trades at a 16.54 X 2014 expected EPS. Even PFE whose revenue peaked in 2010 and has little research has a higher PE. Really however one should be comparing GILD to other biotechs.
    8) GILD prospects are not influenced much by overall economic activity, or drops in Oil suggesting lower future economic activity.
    9) Recent weekly prescription activity continues to suggest GILD is growing.
    I could probably find lots of things to worry about. GILD wouldnt be anywhere on the list at this time.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric declares $0.23 dividend [View news story]
    For those interested in valuing GE I have to think the projected EPS estimates will have to fall. That probably outweighs a dividend action.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Thanks for the article!

    I will just add a few quick thoughts.

    - I am glad that some of my Oil investment was in XOM
    - XOM has locked in the selling price of Oil for the next year
    - XOM will likely buy some smalls with big reserves, perhaps an APA
    - after a bottom is reached moving some funds from XOM to a quality smaller producer including APA, COP could be more lucrative

    - I dont generally try to predict short term Oil prices with my investments
    - Amazing that any Oil company could have a AAA rating
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: First Oncology Drug Strengthens War Chest [View article]
    Thanks for a great article!

    I will put Zydelig and the CEOs view of the pipeline as evidence of another market that deserves valuation in GILD shares. Even if it is only a minor amount.
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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