Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2015 [View article]
    I guess it is going to be after 4Q earnings when the capitulation occurs.
    Nov 2, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Continues To Deliver [View article]

    I understand where you are coming from as you are looking back and AMGN had a period of slow growth. If you are looking forward however it is a well run company with 2 major drugs in Repatha and Romosozumab which could double the value.

    I find it to be a great risk reward opportunity for investors of any age. I should add that a 20%+ return since it came public in the 1980s is a very nice return.
    Nov 2, 2015. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revance: Trying To Bring Two Different Versions Of A 'Better Botox' To Market [View article]
    Thanks for the information.

    I will keep my eye on RVNC. I would need to understand when it will have a product on the market before I would consider it. Hopefully you will keep us updated on this company as the potential is exciting.
    Nov 2, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Defensive: My 30 Portfolio Stocks That Qualify With Evaluation By Value And Income, Part 1 [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I would make the observation that defensive stocks sound good but are they really?

    By that I mean they seem to sport large PEs while reporting lower revenue and slow earnings growth. Where much of the market has had a rolling sell off, defensive stocks have risen.

    Based on those factors, I dont find many defensive stocks as good values at the moment.
    Nov 2, 2015. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Continues To Deliver [View article]
    Good article!

    I would add that AMGN already suggested a 27% increase in the dividend for 2016 in their presentation.

    Repatha and its HR potential should at least be mentioned. It is new and approved and the PCSK9 class is expected to have huge revenues.
    Nov 2, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Stock Isn't Sexy [View article]
    Yes I am more bullish than you are.

    The market has clearly held to a thesis on GILD shares for nearly 2 years.

    I turned much more bullish in the past week with data suggesting the HCV market is larger, competition has diminished raising GILD market share estimates and pricing seems more stable.

    That is not to mention that earnings for 2015 will be up by 60%+ when they were expected to be flat this year.
    Nov 1, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pharmacist at center of scandal accuses Valeant of "massive fraud" [View news story]
    This story isnt going to end anytime soon. So far it just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
    Nov 1, 2015. 12:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Stock Isn't Sexy [View article]

    I agree with the Bio-Invest view to a greater degree than I did before earnings. Some of the key factors include

    - GILD suggesting the number infected is much higher. I dont believe double however.
    - In the past couple of months competition has faded away BMY, ABBV and even MRK CEO suggesting they will not compete on price.
    - GILD has given numerical guidance that suggests the end of growth is near each quarter for over a year.
    - Budgets are still increasing and demand is budget based
    - Dept HHS goal to get 66% of HCV diagnosed by 2020 suggests more diagnosed each year than treated
    - Most of HCV is Baby Boomer and much more cost effective to treat and moving fast to Medicare as well.

    GILD says current EPS base should continue ie $3.22 X 4 = $12.88. I am suggesting EPS $13.00 - $15.00 in 2016. If the number of HCV infected is higher we may still have a larger # to treat than we thought existed originally.
    Oct 31, 2015. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: 25 Billion Reasons For Investors To Stay The Course - A Major Acquisition Is Coming [View article]
    I will help you Brian.

    John Milligan did say that the BOD had asked GILD management to be open to any acquisition ideas presented. I took that to include larger deals as opposed to smaller developmental deals.

    That was this summer at an investor conference... perhaps Morgan Stanley
    Oct 30, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: 25 Billion Reasons For Investors To Stay The Course - A Major Acquisition Is Coming [View article]

    I dont really want to suggest GILD is a takeover target. Mainly because the leadership is so highly thought of.

    What I am suggesting is that GILD does risk losing its independence by causing/allowing its value to to be inadequate. It is not too big to be taken over.

    Just for a moment consider if a bid for $180 a share was made for GILD. What would shareholders do? A 65%-70% increase in share value from an offer that is below a 15 PE.

    The institutional shareholders that own 84% of shares and must vote based on their shareholders best interest, how would they vote on a buyout offer from Roche and its Genentech unit?

    What if an activist investor thought he could shake things up and raise the price? Probably suggest separating HCV into a company since it is only valued at perhaps a 5-6 PE currently?

    I am just saying lots of things can happen in this world.
    Oct 30, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant severs ties with Philidor [View news story]

    My guess is a records grab is going on at Philador.

    Valeant has its employees under false names scooping up records.

    Philador Mgt and employees getting documents to protect themselves and or prepare an insider action.

    The SEC and FBI have to have an interest in protecting the documentation and investigating it.

    Hedge funds probably have Lawyers, private investigators and friends searching for an edge. Journalists descending like locusts.
    Oct 30, 2015. 09:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: 25 Billion Reasons For Investors To Stay The Course - A Major Acquisition Is Coming [View article]
    Good article!

    I tend to agree that an acquisitions are coming and it will raise the share price. The problem is very few options exist within the parameters. GILD has already said they arent pursuing Vertex in my view.

    GILDs needs suggest multiple acquisitions. GILD likes smaller early stage companies to supplement their pipeline. GILD needs products that generate revenue to diversify away from HCV.

    The potential exists to get a big surprise as the companies with significant revenue and a pipeline are more expensive. Also turning it around GILD is an attractive asset to other companies.

    Finally if GILD HCV is valued at a 5-6 PE, perhaps it should be separated into its own stock.
    Oct 30, 2015. 08:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBMs Boot Philidor- How Will It Affect Valeant? [View article]
    Great article!

    The details are fascinating.

    - buying an option to buy 100% of Philador for $100MM, no addl cost to exercise
    - changing prescriptions from what was prescribed
    - Valiant employees working under false names at Philador

    What will we find out next?
    Oct 30, 2015. 08:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences May Be In A Lull, But Its Potential And Its History Make It Attractive [View article]
    Interesting article!

    A low buy?

    I tend to think GILD has great potential so I am holding. Lots of things could raise the value of GILD. At the same time I cant put much of a value on the pipeline. It might have great value it might not.

    My guess is that as goes HCV, so goes GILD. So when the HCV business is valued at a 5-6 PE and GILD tells me that it might be double the size expected in the US my interest is peaked. Japan and Europe HCV revenues are expected to rise.

    TAF is expected to improve profitability in HIV according to GILD. Share buybacks, pipeline, acquisitions, lots of room for growth.

    Then I look at threats. Am I worried that GILD might drop 10%-12% in a bad market? Competition has never looked weaker. GILD brands have never looked stronger. Not treating HCV patients has 6 figure implications vs a 50K cure.

    The problem with a low buy is you get shaken out of an investment when the wind blows. Either raise your conviction to GILD shares or look elsewhere would be my opinion.
    Oct 29, 2015. 09:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVS terminates Philidor Rx from network; Valeant down 5% [View news story]
    One thing is clear and that is CVX didnt find VRX to be a trusted partner.

    Lots of other things I would not be sure about.

    1) Ackman stating he bought 2MM shares the other day
    2) Other hedge fund owners stating VRX is aggressive but within the law
    3) What value if any VRX shares are worth?
    4) How such a cozy relationship developed between VRX and Hedge Funds?
    Oct 29, 2015. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment