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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    I just wanted to add that I really do listen to Milligan as I think he shoots straight and sits in the best seat. Many analysts are just clueless.

    I should add that Milligan might be a poor poker player. At both a conference in Jan and recently at GS if you listened you had no doubt about how bullish he is looking forward.

    One last point is that if GILD thinks you will be disappointed they may come out and try to warn you as they did last 3Q then they mentioned "warehousing would affect results". If they do mention something innocuous like that again I will pay more attention.
    Jun 13, 2015. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Goes Ex-Div: Now Let's Look At Its Sustainable Growth Rate [View article]
    Why GILD and why now?

    1 year ago the GILD guidance was $11.5 bil Revenue expected X .76 Gross Margin
    = 8.74 bil GM

    Today a rough estimate is $31.5 billion Revenue X .885 GM = 27.88 bil GM

    That calculates to an additional $19 bil 2015 GM expected over last year at this time. The earnings power of GILD has more than tripled (3.19 X) in the past year and the stock is only up 44%.

    Another way to look at it is GILD has gained about $54 bil in mkt cap in the past year and the PE on the additional business is less than 3.

    Why so much business?

    What you rarely hear is that GILD cures are cheaper than older treatments and studies indicate it is cheaper to treat HCV now than to not treat HCV. The study is published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

    That is why Italy and Japan in particular are million plus patient markets that are likely to explode in volume. The same is true for US Govt patients such as VA, Medicare, Prisons etc.
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    re Barron's article: No one knows why Gilead is flying

    No one reading SA has any problem with comprehension. But just in case

    1 yr ago

    GILD had guidance for $11.4 bil revenue with a 77% GM and was trading at about $81. Sovaldi was a new drug with some promise.

    10 months ago

    GILD raised its revenue guidance to $22 bil with a 86.5% GM and was trading at about $85, by Labor day it was about $109

    8 months ago

    After 3Q EPS GILD disappointed due to Dr's holding patients back "warehousing" awaiting the launch of Harvoni. Shares peaked at $116 and then dropped back to $100 even though GILD guidance was raised to $22.5 bil with a 87% GM. The theory was that HCV revenues had peaked.

    Dec 22 2014

    GILD sales appeared strong and shares had climbed to $108 and got massacred as ABBV with recently approved Viekira Pak announced an exclusive deal with ESRX the largest PBM. Shares dropped to $86 and ended the year at $94.

    Feb 2015

    Harvoni is a hit and GILD is soaring to $107 going into 4Q earnings. GILD raises estimates once again to $26.5 bil revenue and an 88.5% GM. Then during the call call a GILD exec mentions discounting up to 46% in 2015 and the stock plummets to $96.

    Apr 28

    GILD goes into 1Q earnings at $103 and raises estimates again to $28.5 bil with a 88.5% GM. The same broken analyst models continue and GILD challenges $100 once again.

    1 month ago

    GILD begins a break out. The dividend is a factor, Zydelig is a factor, the pipeline is a factor. The biggest factor however is that HCV continues to explode with the world just getting started, executives saying this could go on for a decade, EASL stating it is GILD for every genotype 1-6 well into the future, Milligan the COO describing a doubling of patients over last year...

    We just cant figure out why anyone would want to pay 10X 2015 EPS can we?
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portola's Lymphoma Drug Looks Good At ASCO [View article]
    I snagged some more AMGN at $154 and have more buy orders lower. Wasnt expecting AMGN to move back up so fast.

    Right now the risk reward ratio favors GILD and AMGN. However I am tracking PTLA and believe it is likely to hold its $2 bil market cap until hopefully a product success.
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    It has been a good month.

    Looking back 6 weeks ago I was expecting $10.50+ a share EPS as analysts were predicting $9.50+ EPS. Then I was expecting $11.50+ after EPS came out and analysts bumped up to $10.50+EPS.

    Now $12+ EPS is my expectation and I suspect analysts will bump into the $11 range soon given increasing world expectations.

    In the big stock market poker table GILD might be at the revenue game saying I will take that bet and raise you a REGN ($3+ billion revenue).
    Jun 11, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portola's Lymphoma Drug Looks Good At ASCO [View article]
    I listened to the presentation Portola gave at the GS conference. It gave me a better understanding of the products and their potential. It is worth a listen!

    I place more value on the Andexanet and Betrixaban products rather than the cancer research, though it is interesting.
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    After yesterday estimates for US HCV have to go up based on Milligan's description of US HCV as extraordinary.

    Then world HCV estimates sounded even better. France up, Italy wants to triple patient volume, Japan larger more immediate need than ever.

    Almost to much good news to handle.
    Jun 10, 2015. 07:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ad Comm gives thumbs up to Amgen's Repatha [View news story]
    The stock price at close indicated as much. It would be a shocker if the populations vote differed from yesterday with Praluent.
    Jun 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' (GILD) Management Presents at Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Why is the stock up?

    Lets see Robin W first made bullish comments about HCV in Europe in the morning yesterday

    "so we are seeing a rapid focus on pricing and reimbursement in the E.U., generally"

    then in this interview Milligan says re Harvoni/Sovaldi and HCV

    "So the United States is actually going – I mean it’s going extraordinarily well"

    "The interesting thing about Europe is there has been very strong political commitment to treating more patients. So more money committed in the budgets. France committed quite a bit more money versus last year. Italy is trying to commit to treating three times more patients than they ever have before as an aspiration."
    Jun 10, 2015. 04:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 3 Fabulous Pharma Stocks [View article]
    I am glad you mentioned BMY as I think it illustrates why some growth stocks may be less risky than others.

    BMY had $19 bil of revenue 10 yrs ago and today has $15 bil. Yet it trades at a 50 PE based on Optivo. It may hit a HR for huge gains or it may be that the wind is blowing in and is just an out.

    AMGN and GILD as an example might be lower risk opportunities. Some of the richest valuations I see are on zero growth companies that suddenly expect to fly to the moon like PFE, LLY and BMY.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: P/E And The Pipeline Beyond HCV [View article]
    on a lighter note

    GILD is missing a large part of the Liver disease market. They need to develop a treatment for ASH (Alcoholic hepatitis). One pill a day chased with a Budweiser.

    I am only half kidding. Liver health is liver health and alcohol issues are probably greater than everything else combined. I would enjoy seeing them estimate the size and duration of that market.
    Jun 10, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dip In Amgen: Focus On Repatha And Other Aspects Of The Pipeline [View article]
    Some significant changes have occurred in a week.

    An advisory panel is likely to limit the market in the US significantly over the market outlined in the article for Repatha.

    AMGN stock is likely to trade lower before rising is a guess. However AMGN is growing and trading at a reasonable PE before Repatha.

    I am not medically trained but I have to think that the group of people it is likely to be approved for, really needs this alternative. A slower growth rate for Repatha isnt all bad.

    Longer term investors have the ability to invest in a successful long term winner at a reasonable price and build a position. I still like the projected 2016 growth in AMGN vs the price of shares.

    AMGN is a good investment without PCSK9 and PCSK9 is likely to build profit in a solid upward path.
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron up 1.1% as trading reopens after Ad Comm approval [View news story]
    If a Dr wanted to prescribe Praluent to a patient who had very high cholesterol but not family inherited as the label restricts... what would happen?

    If a patient said cholesterol is high in my entire family, its genetic what would happen?

    AMGN got a less restrictive label submitted for approval in Europe. It could be interesting to see the difference in uptake.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' (GILD) Management Presents at Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Perhaps Howard Liang could listen or read this interview since he is a GILD analyst. With a little multiplication he might find out how far off his $2.1 billion estimate in HCV revenue is.

    Just forgetting that 2Q is above 1Q volume he could take the 70,000 patients treated in a quarter X a lazy computation $90,000 list price = $6.30 bil X 54% ( assuming every last dollar of discount was claimed ) = $3.4 bil.

    Even using overly conservative assumptions he is off by 40%.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: So Much More Than HCV [View article]
    You are technically correct.

    I was referring to the treatment rate. Today brought more news of increased treatment prospects in Europe and Japan. Both Robin W at Wm Blair conference and John Milligan at GS conference were positive on Europe with things mentioned like "increased budgets" and "aggressive uptakes".

    In Japan I note the g2 estimates increased from 200k to 225k and sales have begun for those patients. I think I remember a Brazil mention as well.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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