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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Sciences: The Best Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    Somedata1

    I am with you! It would be foolish to sell out of GILD.

    When I review scripts and try to put a fair estimate on EPS and revenue it looks bullish. To say that one of the fastest growing earnings stories is dead money is quite an assumption. Trying to be realistic and leaving room for issues I see EPS north of $11.50 and revenue over $30 billion. 2Q is tracking over $3.00 EPS in my view.

    The market is grieving is the way I will term it. A top for HCV is anticipated by all in the next couple of years. After the market comes to terms with the risk it will also begin to see the value. A 9 PE on 2015 estimates is about the low and one can easily see a 12 PE on the high side ($130), all without any significant news.

    If we get a down market I think GILD offers protection. If markets rise GILD will participate and as you say likely add $3 EPS each of the next 2 quarters for growth.

    We differ a little on SA articles. I think SA helps small investors understand the GILD situation. I dont think they have much effect on the price. Institutions which own 90% of shares will make minor changes in their model assumptions one of which has to be a higher peak revenue level.
    May 9, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Deal Shows Desire To Put Oncology At Centre Of Post-Hep C Strategy [View article]
    I support GILD's development of its oncology pipeline.

    At the same time it strikes me that every pharma company in the world is investing heavily in oncology. The dream of treating an increasing number of people for an extended period of time at $100k+ annually is a nice dream.

    It too may hit a wall of reality one day!
    May 8, 2015. 12:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Strong Growth, Poor Stock Performance [View article]
    GILD: The risk and the reward

    The risk is that the market has peaked. That multiple competitors will enter the market and initiate a price war yielding lower profits on reduced market share. It is a real risk to consider.

    The reward is that absent the risk above GILD would probably trade around $200 share at a multiple that is normal for pharma/biopharma. Most of us on SA refute the risk above to a large degree and believe GILD is undervalued.

    I watch carefully for a market volume peak and have not seen one yet even though it has been predicted since November. In fact the number of customers being treated is up substantially.

    I watch for competition but each day GILD seems stronger and Harvoni becomes more difficult to compete against. Competition is coming in 2016 and many are worrying about it. Regarding the price war, I cant remember a price war in pharma anytime in recent history.
    May 8, 2015. 12:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: The Best Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    I just noticed that analyst estimates for 2015 jumped again to 10.88 from 10.59. They are up $1.29 in the last 90 days.

    Given a $101 price
    Earnings Est // PE Est

    EPS 10.00 // 10.01 PE
    EPS 10.88 // 9.28 PE
    EPS 11.00 // 9.18 PE
    EPS 11.50 // 8.78 PE
    EPS 12.00 // 8.42 PE

    I will say that for the first time in a long time analyst estimates at $10.88 represent a reasonable expectation for the year. By that I mean an equal chance of being higher or lower.

    I wouldnt be surprised if yesterday was the bottom for the rest of the year.
    May 8, 2015. 08:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: The Best Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    One nice thing about GILD is I am still up 8% for 2015.

    In a perverse sort of way over the years some very good stocks have refused to rise until the many bulls got tired and sold out. I see that happening with GILD today.

    Interestingly enough many biotech investors see opportunity in Cancer treatments while I see 300 companies fighting to develop $10k mo treatments. Others see opportunity in Orphan diseases where they they hope to charge $1MM+ each to just a few patients. I will stick with GILD.

    Just be patient, collect some dividends and wait for the valuation to approximate fair value.
    May 7, 2015. 03:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: The Perspective Of A Non-Biotech Investor [View article]
    One has to wonder what drives the stock down below $100 after huge results?

    I would just note that the key issues all seem to have improved since last year. That is

    - The HCV market is larger than expected
    - The competition has been delayed and GILDs product is seen as superior
    - Pricing hasnt had a negative effect
    - Margins are higher than ever
    - Estimates are higher
    - even the valuation has improved

    The last time I had a stock like GILD it wasnt until after all the bulls faded away that it took off. At least absent any new developments there is a floor for the stock.
    May 7, 2015. 02:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: The Best Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    The title makes it sound like Bret is trying to convince himself. Apparently the bears are able to spin the results after all.

    I remain long and strong but I must confess that I am disappointed in the post earnings move. The fact remains GILD is in much better shape today than it ever has been.

    Everything I see suggests EPS for 2Q should be higher than 1Q. Certainly the beginning of period scripts are much higher. Hang tight fellow GILDers!
    May 7, 2015. 02:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    We may find some news in the next day or so that explains a drop that breaks $100 as we had this morning.
    May 7, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    I dont subscribe to your theory that appropriate discount factors are being applied.

    If I did I would never again invest in a cure.

    We can agree that markets havent seen a cure of a major disease by a public company in our lifetime. Logic will prevail and it may not be much different than a patent expiration.
    May 6, 2015. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    I would also like to explore valuation using ttm GAAP EPS of $8.81. The PE is 11.69 (102.99/8.81).

    If one uses a mythical pharma company that is completely stable and assumes a PE of 14, GILD shares would be 20% undervalued.

    The market valuation is betting heavily that GILD will suffer from a lower HCV market, decreased market share and or reduced profitability.
    May 6, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I think I will just add a few facts rather than just offer an opinion

    Analysts earnings estimates are

    1Q 2.94
    2Q 2.63
    3Q 2.61
    4Q 2.41
    2015 10.59

    GILD share price 102.99/10.59= 9.73 PE on 2015 expected results.

    Those #s are amazing!
    May 6, 2015. 09:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: A Sense Of An Ending [View article]
    Translation

    a bond manager suggest buying bonds
    May 6, 2015. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wireless Telecom Market Is Changing And You Don't Want To See The Result [View article]
    I do acknowledge the risk and lightened up on VZ shares a month or so back. Still T & VZ have some strong competitive advantages.

    Probably the biggest risk is with T and its dividend should profitability be further reduced. The always highly indebted telephone companies are taking debt to a new level.
    May 6, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Brilliant Hepatitis C Strategy [View article]
    Little news or new angles are left to be explored with GILD.

    I still believe GILD has a good chance to significantly increase in value. Perhaps the best observation I can make is that given arguably the most successful year ever in pharma little value has been created. It makes one wonder how much "potential" is left for some of the other pharma companies.
    May 5, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Blows The Cover Off The Q1 Earnings Ball And Is Ready For A Breakout [View article]
    Perhaps there just isnt much more to say about GILD. It is a good value today but I already have as much exposure as I want.

    Still waiting to see the full 1Q financial statements
    May 5, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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