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jstratt

jstratt
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  • General Electric at Barclays Industrial Select Conference (Transcript) [View article]

    Analysts are unable to even ask relevant questions about GE. I am beginning to wonder whether an investment in GE is dead money? I am not making that conclusion but asking myself the question.

    Pertinent questions

    If GE wants to reduce its Capital assets why does it keep delaying and moving at a glacial pace?

    We are 5 years after GEs stock cratered and change was clearly needed. Is GE leadership satisfied with its internal progress? Why?

    How does GE view its credit rating and would a return to a higher rating impact profitability?

    Finally a comment

    In one of the greatest markets in history GE has taken very little substantive action and the risk is that GE misses the window of opportunity to deal with GE Capital is very real.
    Feb 21 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Coca-Cola Company A Refreshing Buy? The FCF Yield Says Yes [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article!

    I was curious how a 3% personal 1 year revenue growth projection was arrived at given the latest results?

    As an investor in KO I need to listen to the conference call before deciding what if any action to take. However my inclinations are

    - Revenue growth of any sort will be difficult to achieve
    - 2% buyback of shares is almost assured
    - 3% dividend in 2014 is assured
    - 1% cost cutting
    - expect negative news regarding drinking soda
    - Ko is roughly at fair value

    Result equals a 6% return which matches the past 5 year return closely.
    Feb 18 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Harvard Can Teach Us About Portfolio Management [View article]
    I certainly appreciate the model created by David Swensen which Harvard follows. It does provide an interesting strategy and had huge returns prior to 2008. Another comment focused on the leverage employed which was quite valid.

    Another aspect of the return however is the valuation of unique assets that are not traded with any frequency. It is easy for a Pension fund to state these assets are worth $xxx when they dont have to find a buyer willing to pay $xxx. In this instance they are more like the proud owner of a small business who thinks the business may be worth $1MM. The buyer no doubt thinks the fair value of the business is $750k and not wanting to pay full price may offer $500k.

    It is easier to rack up big gains if you dont have a market determined price valuing an asset. Further the independent appraiser who offers a conservative valuation cutting the Managers pay package probably doesnt get rehired.
    Feb 15 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Has The Better Dividends: Procter & Gamble Or Clorox? [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    Shouldnt the question be which stock offers the greatest Total Return potential?
    Feb 13 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's 14nm Delay More Complex Than Process Technology [View article]
    Interesting!

    I still sit on the sidelines and wait for evidence of an INTC emergence. I am rooting for INTC but havent seen a reason to invest.

    If the authors speculation is true to any extent the many investors on this site will learn the difference between gambling and investing. I note a huge INTC following on Seeking Alpha that isnt supported by investment logic.
    Feb 13 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Systems' CEO Discusses F2Q 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I listened carefully to this call and I was impressed with CSCO and John Chambers.
    I had scaled back before last quarter because I was concerned about the Snowden fiasco. After earnings I sold most of my remaining shares because it was a bad quarter and I didnt understand Chambers optimistic view given the results.
    The results and the call made great sense this time. What confused me before is that Chambers has been a straight shooter. So I understand now that CSCO has leapfrogged the competition and savaged its own product line to provide the only full scale solution alternative for the future.
    I understand the focus on key customers that drive the future. I understand the implications of Digital Israel. I understand how important is is to put the pieces together and attack 19 Trillion in overall market opportunity. The Chambers plan is something I now understand.
    While others dont seem to like the results and the plan judging from after hours drop of 4% at last look I like CSCOs chances. They are operating in their wheelhouse and Chambers has proven his capability before. Best of all the quarter did show a turning. CSCO did show how massive changes have been required to put the pieces together.
    With a coherent strategy and pieces falling into place I find CSCO to be better than a 10-12 PE has been. A much higher upside and much less downside potential.
    Feb 12 11:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's EPS guidance in-line, but orders remain under pressure [View news story]
    I didnt want to hold much CSCO into this quarters results. However I got a much better sense this quarter and actually may buy more tomorrow.

    John Chambers is a CEO I tend to believe and he shared how CSCO is approaching the Internet of Everything. He gave an example of Digital Israel. How the Network model is collapsing from 7 layers to 3 layers etc.
    My conclusion is to begin building a larger position.
    Feb 12 05:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Coming Dose Of Reality [View article]
    The conventional wisdom is that CSCO will likely drop after earnings. I have kept a small allocation perhaps in misguided hope.

    Concerns

    - China and emerging markets given the Snowden revelations.
    - lack of growth in revenue and earnings
    - Software defined networking impact
    - forward guidance

    Possibilities

    - Huge cash position
    - solid dividend of 3%
    - the growth opportunity of the internet of things
    - CSCO is participating in a growing business of networking
    - Low PE from low expectations leaves room for a move up

    Conclusion

    It is very hard to assess the virtualization of networks for an investor as it goes through rapid change. CSCO with a strong base of customers, lots of cash and competing in its wheelhouse could be positioned to reignite down the road.

    In the meantime the downside risk is lowered by low valuation, 8.9 billion in FCF driving return to shareholders in dividends and buybacks as well as investment in future opportunity.

    A good current strategy is to keep involved a small position and look for opportunity as future clarity becomes more visible.
    Feb 11 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stolen Barclays' client data sold in "worst data breach ever" [View news story]
    Key detail to add

    The data was apparently stolen in 2012!
    Feb 9 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Intel's New CEO Have What It Takes? [View article]
    I must admit I am intrigued by an Ashraf article that isnt bullish.

    I still believe in INTC as an investment as early as mid 2014. I take INTC management at their word of 2014 being flat. My point all along has been that INTC is a gamble with no perceived advantage for the risk of buying now.

    INTC will likely come thru but it is best to wait for evidence than to jump the gun betting on an uncertain future timing. Finally I would likely lose interest before waiting for a 10nm scale to emerge.
    Feb 9 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stolen Barclays' client data sold in "worst data breach ever" [View news story]
    I dont think any entity is above a data breach.

    Perhaps the best example is Snowden. My guess is he was flipped by foreign espionage and spun out as a humanitarian. In the process some of the best protected secrets in the world were disclosed.

    I do suspect business prospects for PANW are excellent. The combination of premier network security skills with our current environment makes a $4 billion market cap company appear promising.
    Feb 9 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 4G And Velocity IP The Major Contributors [View article]
    I own the least T that I have owned in decades. My hope is to see T restore revenue and profit growth but I am unconvinced.

    What I see over the past 5 years is a 35% increase in share price on a -0.28% 5 year decrease in earnings.

    The degree to which T can reduce the 20+ billion in annual infrastructure investment required just to maintain its current level of profitability is key

    One also must consider that LT debt increased by 6-8 billion this past year.

    T is a valuable asset but the question is at what price would you want to pay to own it. If you arent careful you may give up more than the dividend in share price declines.
    Feb 9 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    This investor was and is way to bullish. As one who has been fully invested in stocks for over a decade and prides himself on always being fully invested it is time to consider an allocation to shorter term Bonds or cash.

    We are near all time lows in interest rates in the history of our civilization with the Fed Funds rate at 0.07% as an example. On top of that we are now attempting a turn away that eventually must mean higher rates. At a very minimum an increase in volatility should periodically pause the progression of stocks.

    I do suspect that economic leaders will manage the larger picture as interest rates attempt a slow rise. Already however one can see a marginal change in the stock flow of funds. Pensions having benefited are overweight stocks and moving to historic allocations. The 3rd world learning that they may not always have 1st world economic advantages need money back at home. Investors drunk with consistent gains betting more than their proper long term allocation. All would suggest choppy turbulence.

    Perhaps a conclusion should be to protect some of the huge gains of the last 5 years. Being the matador in a bull fight isnt a bad analogy
    Feb 9 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Bottoms Have 2 Elements: We're Still Missing One [View article]
    I would suggest investors not look at momentary overbought or oversold indicators. I consider myself a permabull for 20+ years.
    That said one must consider that the Fed Funds rate at 0.07% is near the low of the lifetime of our civilization. Further the market has turned a little bit and Fed support of low risk asset price increases is diminishing.
    Nothing is for sure but one should consider that with the lowest cost of money in the lifetime of our civilization, asset prices in most every area may be excessive! I am not saying sell everything and bury gold in the back yard. Just make some room for the thought that stocks and bonds could drop more than the past 5 year history would suggest.
    Feb 7 12:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K-Cup + Coke = Huge Green Mountain Potential -- Today's Rise Likely Just The First Step [View article]
    Offering an opinion

    This is KO playing both defense and offense.

    1st think GMCR is successful in Coffee Tea and Soft drinks and KO participates

    2nd think GMCR is successful only in Coffee and Tea and KO participates

    3rd PEP has been eliminated from a competitive threat. SODA would be a competitive embarrassment and PEP will not make such a play. PEP is now even more likely to be broken up.
    Feb 6 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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