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  • Could Celgene's PE Be Headed To The Dreaded Gilead Zone?  [View article]
    I like innovative perspectives and especially the willingness to be bearish on a company with premier returns and a bullish outlook.

    Some thoughts

    The biggest point that gives me pause is Hugin stepping down unexpectedly.

    It isnt hard to believe that the future of CELG could be less than its history.

    The same level criticism of CELG pipeline/patent expiration applied industry wide would decimate the entire industry.

    GILD is treated substantially different than every other pharma company seemingly based on cure vs treatment.

    My view remains that CELG is 20% undervalued and pricing under $100 will initiate another buy. The 32 partnerships are unlikely to totally fail. Near term growth seems reasonably certain and I have plenty of time to assess 2023 prospects.
    Jan 19, 2016. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carnage In Biotech: What's Hot And What's Not  [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I very much appreciate your opinion. A few thoughts!

    BMY - I have been reluctant to get into BMY but in a bad market I might enter a position.
    GILD - I hope you are correct as I am getting close to a max level. Remain very bullish!
    MRK - just added some MRK and might balance shares out of JNJ into MRK to a 50/50 split.
    CELG - I have been accumulating and if $100 is breached will add more.
    AMGN - holding and note it is well above Aug lows so far. I suspect another good earnings report and Repatha enthusiasm ahead
    BIIB - I couldnt agree more and have gotten lucky on BIIB selling at $400 last year. I felt Alzheimers was an example of an announcement meant to avoid scrutiny of actual performance.

    An industry that continues to grow and innovate has significant upside from here.
    Jan 19, 2016. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase: Another Shakeout Provides Opportunity  [View article]
    I tend to agree with the Stone Fox that JPM is a good value at this point. It is roughly 20% below its high.

    With an 8.5 forward PE a rising NIM and very well capitalized, lower expenses many positives exist. A lot of Oil issues are discounted in the current price.
    Jan 18, 2016. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: Great Pipeline, Poor Financials  [View article]
    My view is that CELG has great prospects and I am glad to be a shareholder.

    There are so many things I like about CELG and its growth strategy. They have outlined expectations to 2020 and presented a growth plan to get there.

    When I look at the growth of key products such as Revlimid, Abraxane, Pomalyst and Otezla along with the pipeline and 30+ partnerships I am very bullish.

    For the investor who tries to get ahead by looking back CELG looks risky at a 52 PE. For the investor who looks ahead, the future of CELG could not be much brighter and seems to be extremely undervalued.

    I dont blame some investors for valuing CELG at a market level PE as it is a fearful time for capital. However in my view a YE 2016 target of $138 seems reasonable.
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Exxon Mobil 'Conundrum'  [View article]
    Great article topic!

    I have been giving this issue much thought recently.

    My view is that XOM is one of a small selection of traditional defensive stocks that have not yet participated in the drop. XOM, KO, and some consumer and food companies.

    It is my belief that since XOM's earnings both short term and long term are severely impacted the stock will drop significantly in the months ahead.

    Perhaps part of the issue is that many, myself included have been waiting for XOM to drop so we can buy for the long term. Others think that XOM will scoop up small players at great bargains and defeat the crash. These factors have probably delayed a fall in XOM shares.

    However money from around the world is flowing out as SWF's have commitments at home. As money flows out and a recognition that the 5 year growth rate of XOM EPS is -10% its shares will drop.

    Finally we may be near lows (or not) in the price of Oil but not the low in Oil Stocks. After painful results and painful actions and a painful outlook get reported in the coming weeks Oil stocks will be lower.
    Jan 16, 2016. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 6 Things Need To Happen Before Gilead Shares Go Higher  [View article]

    No I dont really worry a lot about drug pricing campaign rhetoric.

    Regarding MRK I think they will get some sales but I also think an ESRX type move to force patients into a drug without a history of success is inadvisable.
    Jan 15, 2016. 10:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 6 Things Need To Happen Before Gilead Shares Go Higher  [View article]
    I keep adding to my GILD position at $91 yesterday and I have an order in for $88.

    What I think most people are missing is that GILD is performing as a company. It is building value across its portfolio of drugs.

    The stock is a separate question. If SWFs around the world are selling to meet obligations at home as Larry Fink reported this morning the market will drop.

    So I dont think any specific action by GILD is required. As an investor I think you should drive a hard bargain and acquire shares.

    Finally the critics of GILD are way off base in my opinion. GILD has given 200MM people a new lease on life in HCV. Another 8MM people live a quality life with HIV by taking a GILD drug. Before long GILD intends to save 200MM HBV sufferers including the 1MM who die annually.

    The $35,000 paid in the US in 2016 for a cure from HCV is a huge value. That is why critics have to lie about the cost of GILD drugs and G7 countries around the world are happy to pay the going rate.
    Jan 15, 2016. 01:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pre-Earnings Discussion Of Breaking News On Gilead; More Positives Than Negatives  [View article]
    I bought some GILD yesterday at $91 and have an order in for $88.

    I just dont understand rational people getting excited and buying at $110 and getting scared and selling at $93. :)

    Thought people were supposed to buy low and sell high?
    Jan 15, 2016. 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Gilead Sciences At An Attractive Price  [View article]
    The pain will justify the Gain!

    If it was GILD performance causing shares to decline I would have a different view. However the company is performing well but the stock is having problems along with the market.

    After MRK news and earnings I think GILD has the potential to make a run.

    Excellent article!
    Jan 15, 2016. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Profits Hit An All-Time High  [View article]
    IBM just has such poor leadership that one should find a functioning company.

    As an example the statement IBM is getting rid of low margin businesses would be more accurately stated that customers of those businesses got rid of IBM.

    IBM effectively borrowed to buy large amounts of stock but that doesnt make the business better.

    Get rid of Rometty and the ancient BOD and I will return to being an IBM shareholder.
    Jan 14, 2016. 11:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding A Fair Value For Gilead  [View article]
    I dont have a problem with your valuation level but I would probably subtract debt from cash.

    In the short term it doesnt matter much what the value of GILD is as money is being removed from the market. Investors are looking to remove as much risk as possible from their portfolios.

    It is a great time to buy GILD and any investor initiating at the current $92-$93 level should do really well. I note that some Oil company stocks have performed better than GILD in recent months.

    Investors should consider the 3 pieces of GILD
    - US HCV has increasing budgets and may decrease but importantly may not
    - World HCV looks to grow and if countries decide to adopt cure models dramatically so
    - Non HCV looks for double digit growth on the back of growth in volume, margins and new drug market share
    - add in share buybacks

    The point is the company is performing and in time the stock will follow.
    Jan 14, 2016. 09:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pre-Earnings Discussion Of Breaking News On Gilead; More Positives Than Negatives  [View article]

    GILD raised $15 billion cash with debt issuance and is thought to have enough US based cash to accomplish such a buy.

    Really I was trying to make a point however. If I were to guess I would think GILD might consider a 5% buyback in 1Q. Also just assuming Somedata is correct 17/133 =a 12.78% FCF yield. If GILD were to invest elsewhere it should be to get in excess of that yield as an expectation.

    Perhaps another key point is GILD will not easily double its revenue from here. It could double its EPS. Especially if FCF remains such a large percentage of its market cap.

    Thanks as always for an interesting article!
    Jan 13, 2016. 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: The Dividend Isn't Worth The Potential Squeeze  [View article]
    The author makes a very good point!

    COP was a premier company until they split. A year ago at the end of 2014 I sold all my COP at $69 which was down 1% for the year and Oil was down 40%.

    COP management had also put in their 10k reports that they didnt believe in hedging.

    Today the business is roughly valued at $48 billion market cap and $24 bil debt. It would not take a great thinker to see the equity drop significantly as worse conditions in year 2 weigh on the outlook.

    A few years ago COP was like a smaller XOM or CVX. Today it is more like a larger APA.
    Jan 13, 2016. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pre-Earnings Discussion Of Breaking News On Gilead; More Positives Than Negatives  [View article]
    I had to buy some GILD today.

    Just think if GILD had the same overall business level in 2016 that it had in 2015 and bought back 10% of shares with $13.4 billion of FCF the non GAAP earnings would be $12.50 / .9 = $13.89.

    Lots of things can happen but perhaps Australia is the start of more countries around the world negotiating agreements to cure their nations. Also I thought GILD outlined enough of HBV and NASH that they should start to get value much like Alzheimers.

    So far I believe one needs to separate company performance from stock market performance. GILD continues to enhance company performance and one day it will burst forward to a more normal valuation.
    Jan 13, 2016. 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Looks Set To Beat Bristol Myers Squibb In Race For Top Hepatitis C Drug  [View article]
    It looks to me as if GILD is going to run the table in HCV. Up to a 99% cure rate without significant side effects is going to be difficult to beat. Pan Genotype is the last key area and GILD has a strong lead.

    I doubt that any other solution can achieve GILD's HCV success. If they could I doubt that it would be within a couple of years. Further it is doubtful that Dr's would choose a second alternative in any significant numbers.

    Therefore GILD is likely to maintain 85% market share for the next couple years.


    The 2nd and 3rd best solutions could try to compete on price. However if they do that they stand less of a chance of recouping their investment much less earn a positive return.

    Quantity of Patients

    The Australia agreement was more important in my view than is generally considered. GILD is starting to go after entire country solutions. Dont be surprised if China and several other countries are announced by the end of the year.

    Side Effects

    BMY and ABBV have already had troubles with side effects. It is likely that JNJ and any others will as well.
    Jan 13, 2016. 09:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment