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  • An Analysis Of Amgen [View article]

    I would be interested in an article on Biotech in general. I hold several with the largest position in GILD.

    On one hand it seems the quantity and quality of new medicines is phenomenal. Yet each day it seems practically every biocompany rises. It seems like would triple in a year.

    Currently I hold AMGN, BIIB, GILD, CELG. I am willing to buy some smaller players but havent gotten enough education to commit to those.

    Enjoy your articles!
    Aug 23 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric And Synchrony Financial After The IPO [View article]
    I will add some thoughts on GE and SYF.

    - GE is up and now is only down 4% ytd.
    - Still I think GE is finally turning a corner with revenue now rising
    - SYF should be teed up to hit a HR

    I must remind myself this is GE and they have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    PS GE's recent rise has more to do with the drop in 10 year Treasury rates
    Aug 22 04:51 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    I admire Shiller but never thought the CAPE was valid. When at the lows in Mar 2009 CAPE still indicated stocks were to high as an example. My guess is the assumptions built into it have less validity over time.

    Also as a predictor CAPE would predict the company that hasnt grown earnings in 10 years and I am not interested in that.
    Aug 22 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Buy For Yield, Stay For Growth [View article]
    I am glad that KO is up in the month I also own some. I also know that most people reading this are only interested in hearing someone profess unconditional love for KO.

    According to KO is up 0.00% YTD, 7.24% 1 yr return and 19.64% 3 year return.

    KO is a good company but it should not be blasphemy to suggest that other alternatives exist.
    Aug 22 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Amgen [View article]
    In 1989 my father a conservative dividend investor saw AMGN drop to a reasonable PE and decided he wanted to own 1 stock that had the potential to really grow.

    He died about a year later and my Mom hated stocks. I was able to keep 50% of the position by selling all of her shares the day after a split. Sneaky I know! My Mom has since passed and those shares split up between my siblings and I. Today they stand up with a return of 15,046% for anyone who kept them.

    What I learned is that no matter what, some part of my portfolio has to have an opportunity to grow. That lesson has returned more than the AMGN.
    Aug 22 12:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Buy For Yield, Stay For Growth [View article]
    I just want to add that I own some KO.

    What my comment was trying to point out is that investors would benefit by looking forward when making an investment and not just backward.

    KO has guided analysts to a 5%+ expected 5 year return, add in the dividend and a conservative investor can have a good return.

    At the same time an investor should weigh alternatives and as an example DIS at a 23.25 PE and has grown EPS by 19%+ annually over the past 5 years and projects a 16%+ next 5 year growth.
    Aug 22 08:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Buy For Yield, Stay For Growth [View article]
    Here is my problem with investing in KO!

    KO has had a decrease in revenue and Zero growth in EPS this year. They project a 6.7% growth rate next year but why is next year going to be different? So the PE on a trailing basis is 22.13 and forward PE is 18.67.

    Now look at JNJ with a 19.93 trailing PE and 16.46 forward PE. JNJ is delivering strong revenue growth of 9% and strong earnings growth of 12.9%. Over the next 5 years perhaps a 4% revenue increase and 8-10% EPS.

    That is why JNJ in the past 2 years is up 52%, S&P is up 40% and KO is up 5%. If I were to guess KO might be up 5% in the next year and JNJ 10% in the next year. Further if a challenging market appeared I would have trouble seeing KO above an 18 PE based on flat results.

    ... and that magic historical dividend growth, doesnt that come from increasing earnings?
    Aug 21 04:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Beware The Upcoming Price War [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article!

    I would state that there are no Total Return investors left in T.

    Over the past 3 years T has paid a 3% dividend and a 2%+ return of capital.

    T is able to stiff arm TMobile and S so I am not worried about the same competition that has been there all along. The 10PE is reasonable meaning it is not overvalued but with many cross currents earnings are potentially volatile.
    Aug 21 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: How Would Higher Dividend Growth Impact Financials And Valuation? [View article]
    I am long VZ because it is at a very low PE of 11 and is actually growing and paying the 4.3% dividend out of earnings rather than T which is probably a 3% dividend and 2.2% return of capital.

    Then VZ has the best wireless network and the best fiber network to support growth. Longer term the internet of things suggests that more people will use more devices for more time helping VZ grow.

    In short VZ is a rare bargain. Now about that dividend. I would suggest that VZ grow its cash position over the next couple years to be able to service and support the $108 billion in long term debt. They do not have the cash needed at present and while I dont see an economic downturn should one occur it would be more difficult.

    So first order of business in my mind is accumulate $10 billion in additional cash/liquidity. The investment in the business never stops either with $17 billion that will be needed in the next year and possibly more for spectrum purchases.
    Aug 21 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Honeywell International: Should You Buy It? [View article]
    I will offer some thoughts on HON.

    It has a PE of 17.34 on YE2014 EPS est. Given 17% past 5 year earnings growth and 10%+ earnings growth projected for the next 5 years the stock is not overvalued.

    I take a projected 5 year growth rate with a few grains of sand but everything looks positive from revenue growth, cash flow growth and the ability to meet earnings goals even in tougher environments.

    Given a normal market I would estimate a 10% increase in share price in the next year with the opportunity to be even 20%. A company with solid revenue and earnings growth and a value oriented PE is hard to find.
    Aug 21 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Deal Is Done [View article]
    Good things ahead for BAC given the end of the litigation era.

    I find it interesting that 7 years later and 2 months before an election the Feds are going to go after Angelo Mozillo. If it was something other than a cheap political ploy seems like they might have considered that long ago.
    Aug 21 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Valued Like It's Going Out Of Business [View article]
    So I will make a few comments on HPQ status looking forward.

    My quick impression on revenue was that while it grew 1% for the quarter, declines were significant outside of PC refresh.

    My biggest complaint is that HPQ has not been buying back enough shares with FCF. They committed to buy back at least $2.5 billion in the current quarter, or 4% by my calculation.

    Cash flow guidance was a highlight with $9 billion+ projected for the year.

    The next quarter and full year EPS should benefit by a 4% share buyback.

    I bought additional shares leading up to earnings thinking I might get a pop and probably would have given a proper allocation to share buybacks. Once the forward cash flow calculations get evaluated by analysts my guess is for a modest price rise.

    A 2014 PE of 35.12/3.72 = 9.44 YE Oct 2014. My valuation would be at or slightly above a 10 PE or $37.20.
    Aug 21 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: What Will HP's Shares Do Post Earnings? [View article]
    I purchased additional HPQ ahead of earnings.

    The most recent 4 quarters of meeting estimates is most relevant. Add in PC refresh cycle and huge free cash flows as reasons.

    For the Mark Hurd period HPQ always met estimates. During the period prior to Whitman it did not.

    Two opportunities to knock the cover off the ball exist.

    1) If revenue actually grew instead of a 1% decline which I think is possible
    2) If cash flow is used to buy back larger share quantities which is also possible

    As an example for $6.6 billion 10% of shares could be redeemed. At a forward PE of 9 the stock is inexpensive. Especially for a company that generates $11.5 billion in Operating Cash Flow.

    I do worry about the loss of Ralph Whitworth as perhaps no other BOD has been as destructive in to shareholder value in S&P500 history.
    Aug 20 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For IBM: A Revision Of The DCF, A Look At ROIC [View article]
    My comment above was a sarcastic way of questioning the validity of the authors excellent analysis. I do appreciate his work.

    IBM is reasonably priced with a stable hugely profitable non hardware business. The hardware business is fracturing however and recent sales attempts illustrate that point.

    IBM has a good chance of meeting 2015 non GAAP earnings of $20. The stock will rise if that happens.
    Aug 20 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Buys These 8 Dividend Stocks [View article]
    I am not as impressed with Berk stock picking as I once was.

    I will say that I understand VZ as an investment. With a PE dropping to 11 where historically 13 would be more normal.

    I see VZ as having the best wireless network and with FIOS the best fiber network. Growth in EPS suggests a higher valuation and longer term the internet of things suggests more people using more items to connect for more time.

    All with a 4.3% dividend for income!

    VZ does keep dropping and suffers from the threat of competition. They do have a lot of debt but it is in my mind supportable.

    After a few years ago selling out of T/VZ I am beginning to nibble at VZ for good long term returns.
    Aug 20 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment