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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Reuters: EU likely to approve GE deal to buy Alstom power unit [View news story]
    I may be an idiot but I dont own any investments that have been negative over a 17 year period.

    For the record I dont generally write insults either. Good luck to you!
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another disastrous day for oil stocks - is it capitulation time? [View news story]
    That is not my base case but I leave open some possibility. The things I initially think of are

    - opening up exports which raises US prices probably $5 barrel
    - easing debt financing to reduce avoid capitulation

    Merely suggesting that today governments view helping stock markets as important where that was not so important in the past. The past 10 years we have seen lots of creativity in this arena.

    Nonetheless I dont really disagree with you.
    Aug 14, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: EU likely to approve GE deal to buy Alstom power unit [View news story]
    My guess is that GE gave up more to get this news. Likely possibilities

    - GE agreed to move some additional jobs from US to Europe
    - Agreed to contract with some other Euro firms
    - additional licenses of technology given away

    GE is an embarrassment to capitalism, Immelt is a horrible CEO and Alstom is a horrible deal.
    Aug 14, 2015. 01:37 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno Therapeutics' (JUNO) CEO Hans Bishop on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Juno is now reasonably valued and is an impressive company. They seem to have everything in place to capitalize on their impressive research.

    In responding to holbornine I would just say that CELG roughly paid $1 bil for 40%-50% of Juno's success. An artificial price on shares purchased that makes the JUNO investment look more valuable isnt important.

    My guess is JUNO is a steal at its current valuation. Guessing a 5 valuation estimate would range between $2 bil - $20 bil market cap so much more upside than down.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another disastrous day for oil stocks - is it capitulation time? [View news story]
    Just offering a view...

    Oil is not likely to hit a low before 3Q EPS come in based on historical patterns. Politically however my guess is we will begin exporting Oil & Gas eliminating the difference between WTI and Brent prices.

    As Oil dropped last December I sold my COP at $69 sh down 1% for the year as Oil had crashed by 40%. I have a 20% position now fully aware that I am early. Historically the most profitable trade for Oil and Oil stocks comes after

    - a blowout high volume capitulation low
    - after cutbacks to the flow of Oil being produced
    - after pain and bankruptcies and dividend cuts and a struggle for survival
    - after the huge reservoir of bulls have been stomped on and extinguished
    - after news that every salt mine is full and ships stretch from here to China full of Oil with nowhere to go and owners realize they are paying to store Oil and they surrender
    - after the recognition that Oil crashes farther and stays down much longer than anyone thinks possible.

    COP is a good company and in 3 years shares will be higher than they are now. Somewhere near $40 I will be unable to resist the temptation to add to my shares.

    After all it took Trillions of low cost money invested in Oil over 6 years to get us where we are today. It could take as long to recover.

    Those who are long can hope that we are in a more politically manipulated age where the financial institutions holding the commodity debt and nations which survive on commodities are able to take action to support pricing and take steps to shorten the cycle.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis Pharma Stock Drops On Good News: Re-Evaluating The Bull Case [View article]
    Another great article!

    I am glad that this summer when ISIS got hot I chose to avoid it. It is a better value now. We are at a time where I feel the need to avoid undue risk yet I remain willing to take more biotech risk. I am sticking with my GILD but agreed with an earlier article about AMGN and cut my position with a nice gain.

    The risk I am willing to take is REGN which has a strong valuation but I am a believer in PCSK9. Eylea with 50% gains in 2Q is strong and adding new indications. At a run rate of $4 bil revenue REGN appears to be low balling 2015 estimates. Then PCSK9 if it is taken by a percentage of people whose lives would be saved by it adds a strong motor for future gains and the rest of the pipeline has potential.

    CELG is one where I have been waiting for it to return to a fair valuation to add to my stake. Receptos increased the valuation by $20 bil which I thought was exuberant but $10 bil of that has dissipated. I would like to add more CELG at a $125 level should that happen.
    BIIB I sold to a core level after 1Q when I thought they threw Alzheimers out as a way to cover up bad performance. It has since dropped a third and is interesting.
    To avoid risk I have cut my exposure to smaller names like ISIS and to Immuno-Oncology bets. The biggest threat I see to biotech is the PBM's driving drug prices down and the end of the year could accentuate that risk.
    So I find GILD an excellent value but have a full position, would like to buy more AMGN near $160 or see Repatha news, BIIB around $305 or less, REGN I would like to add and AGN I am watching.
    Perhaps I am like a large White Tiger I saw recently who saw us passing by and came down close hiding in the weeds thinking he might make a meal of me when the truth was he was in a caged environment... we shall see.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil takes out new bear market low [View news story]
    What I think it takes to understand Oil!

    Investors should recognize that low interest rates have caused huge investments in the Trillions of dollars into Oil and Minerals. We simply have arrived at the time when supply exceeds demand.

    The solution wont be quick and it will take time to draw down excess inventories. Typically in the disbelief stage companies keep on drilling and investing. We havent yet reached the stage where cutting back to stay alive takes place and some go belly up.

    Historically viewed a blowout low would occur by November but lower prices are here to stay for a couple years. It took time to get to this point and it will take time to get out of it.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Seriously Own Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    I have a buy in for FCX and I am starting to build a position. Here is why!

    Lets start with the Oil unit that everyone hates. It has drilled 10 successful deep water wells out of 10 tries and needs to invest something like $1.5 billion to increase its Oil production by 40%+ and at a cost of $19 bbl. I dont have a problem with that.

    Then copper, FCX runs the best Copper mine in the world with the highest copper content in Indonesia. Its cost of producing Copper is about $1.75 lb. Again investments this year in copper mines but in a couple of years the capex will be done.

    So a FCX with every negative story fixated on it is trading at about 28% of analyst estimated enterprise value. So as a long term investor I think I can get an excellent return. I am not as worried that FCX will fold as I am that it will get taken out at its current rate.

    While the author perhaps reads newspapers to trade stocks I try to be a long term investor and read and listen to earnings calls and analyst reports. I dont think FCX has hit its low but I think that will be in by November. I think I will continue to scrape shares off bottoms and get a 300% return within 5 years.

    Good luck investors. FCX will survive and prosper since it has liquidity. It been a while since I could find a fear inspired value.

    PS - By the way the Indonesian copper mine is shut down at the moment during negotiations.
    Aug 13, 2015. 03:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Point - U.S. Insurer Mergers Shrink Drug Buyer Pool [View article]
    Excellent article and interesting perspective offered!
    Aug 13, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Just a few thoughts...

    - Last I looked the traditional pharma names looked more expensive than some high growing biotechs

    - The innovation in biotech is truly amazing capitalizing on genomics and the result is significant breakthroughs in Cancer treatment, Cardiovascular (PCSK9), curing diseases such as Hep C.

    - Consider that since the mid 1980s an AMGN has increased by about 25% annually. Thats over 30 years.

    Risks to watch out for

    - Budgets for pharma do have limitations and we have yet to see how costs will be controlled. Some form of Cost/Benefit analysis will be applied in the future to restrict pricing. Could well happen at the end of 2015 as PBM's attempt to restrict drug access.

    - Actual vs Potential - most of biotech moves together while some companies have approved products generating real advances and others have potential that could potentially disappear

    - Health Care itself looks so much better than cyclical business and world investment alternatives that flows of funds will have to reverse at some point out of Health Care as the view changes. We wont get another ACA.

    - Cancer will have some big winners but since perhaps 500 companies are researching cancer perhaps 95% losers ( 25 winners, 475 losers )

    On the other hand it is hard to see PCSK9 shares doing anything but rising higher as the market is huge and long term.
    Aug 13, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport indonesia halts copper exports after permit expires [View news story]
    a few thoughts...

    This mine is the most important Copper mine in the world and is a big deal but it is in the best interest of both FCX and the Indonesian govt to extend a relationship several decades old.

    For all the negativity about FCX the positive side is unrecognized such as fundamental profitability given Copper production costs in the $1.75 range and the Oil drilling success of 10 for 10 deep water wells which will dramatically increase Oil production. The production cost for their Oil should be about $19 barrel.

    The cash burn is all investments required to bring these huge new profitable resources to market. It is risky to purchase a falling knife but I will start building a position with my order today at less than $10 sh. Expecting a minimum 300% return within 5 years. FCX is trading at about 28% of analyst enterprise value.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Biotech Digest: Seeking Alpha Biotech Idea, Gilead Sales Updates, Sanofi Diabetes Collaboration [View article]
    I recently saw an opinion offered that HIV would be cured within 3 years stated as if it were a fact. GILD has indicated that they are working on a cure.

    Curious if anyone has a more defined status on HIV research?
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Views From The CIO: Three Reasons We (Still) Like The Healthcare Sector [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    Perhaps many medical/biotech investors have more of a problem keeping our portfolio from being weighted to heavily in Health Care.

    So many growth stories and the lack of cyclical risk issues as indicated in the article have driven growth investors into medicine. While the growth stories still exist I do agree that stock picking will be more important.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVS takes another tack to head off high price of new cholesterol drugs, says new guidelines needed on how to choose [View news story]
    Interesting view!

    I am sticking with CVS as I like their long term prospects. The reality is somehow a cost benefit scenario has to arrive.

    I did sell a 50% stake in AMGN a few days back but still have a solid position. I will probably buy it back after it drops. I also got back to my core position in GILD which is still my largest position, yesterday. Now all of my biotech holdings are at core long term holding levels and a cash reserve waits.

    I might add to REGN. CVS is just too well managed to sell as its long term looks much better than its short term PE.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Files To Issue New Equity And The Market Gets Over It [View article]
    I placed an order for FCX at $9.95 this morning.

    First I think the environment is bleak. I see lower Oil prices and probably lower mineral prices ahead. FCX doesnt have a single piece of news to help shares and they have been taken out to the woodshed and chopped.

    However underneath it is a compelling case and the salient points for me were

    - 10 for 10 in Oil drilling will add significant production increases in Oil over the coming year and Oil produced at $19 barrel or less

    - Significant Copper and Gold production improvements all at something like $1.75 Copper prod cost.

    - The cash burn is investments in these long term assets and should end in 2017

    So shares trading at 28% of enterprise value offer an opportunity to get at least 300%+ returns over a 5 year period.

    Since I have a rather negative industry outlook of lower prices for a much longer period than most I put an initial order in fully expecting shares to drop in the coming months. I would like a blowout high volume low to really get a full position.

    Why now?

    1) I like to buy small amounts and then I track stocks better as it is early to invest in a commodity play.

    2) The underlying business is good enough that a party whether Hedge Fund, activist or another mining company may buy a stake soon funding the investment required through 2017. If so FCX is immediately more valuable.

    If interested I suggest listening to the latest quarter call with slides and read some reasearch reports.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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