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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    We may find some news in the next day or so that explains a drop that breaks $100 as we had this morning.
    May 7, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    I dont subscribe to your theory that appropriate discount factors are being applied.

    If I did I would never again invest in a cure.

    We can agree that markets havent seen a cure of a major disease by a public company in our lifetime. Logic will prevail and it may not be much different than a patent expiration.
    May 6, 2015. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    I would also like to explore valuation using ttm GAAP EPS of $8.81. The PE is 11.69 (102.99/8.81).

    If one uses a mythical pharma company that is completely stable and assumes a PE of 14, GILD shares would be 20% undervalued.

    The market valuation is betting heavily that GILD will suffer from a lower HCV market, decreased market share and or reduced profitability.
    May 6, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Sciences Doing So Well? [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I think I will just add a few facts rather than just offer an opinion

    Analysts earnings estimates are

    1Q 2.94
    2Q 2.63
    3Q 2.61
    4Q 2.41
    2015 10.59

    GILD share price 102.99/10.59= 9.73 PE on 2015 expected results.

    Those #s are amazing!
    May 6, 2015. 09:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: A Sense Of An Ending [View article]
    Translation

    a bond manager suggest buying bonds
    May 6, 2015. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wireless Telecom Market Is Changing And You Don't Want To See The Result [View article]
    I do acknowledge the risk and lightened up on VZ shares a month or so back. Still T & VZ have some strong competitive advantages.

    Probably the biggest risk is with T and its dividend should profitability be further reduced. The always highly indebted telephone companies are taking debt to a new level.
    May 6, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Brilliant Hepatitis C Strategy [View article]
    Little news or new angles are left to be explored with GILD.

    I still believe GILD has a good chance to significantly increase in value. Perhaps the best observation I can make is that given arguably the most successful year ever in pharma little value has been created. It makes one wonder how much "potential" is left for some of the other pharma companies.
    May 5, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Blows The Cover Off The Q1 Earnings Ball And Is Ready For A Breakout [View article]
    Perhaps there just isnt much more to say about GILD. It is a good value today but I already have as much exposure as I want.

    Still waiting to see the full 1Q financial statements
    May 5, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Not Even Bears Can Spin These Results [View article]
    I am surprised that GILD is down more than other biotech today -2.3% as I write.

    Generally in 2015 GILD has raised guidance and results with little to show for it. Hopefully when the full 1Q financials are published and institutional models are updated the price will rise.

    Management sabotaged the quarter when they suggested Hep C may have peaked on the conference call. They also sabotaged 4Q by launching into a discussion of 46% discounts. Added on is the risk that GILD is unable to communicate with analysts such that most miss actual results by 20% or more each quarter.

    The good news is GILD management has outperformed in minimizing the share valuation from outstanding revenue and profit.
    May 5, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Great Q1 Results And Even More Great News Afterwards, Amgen Is Attractive [View article]
    AMGN is a a great company to own and has a deep pipeline.

    I tend to value companies on expected earnings for 2015 which is both forward looking and foreseeable. So a 16.92 PE on a company with a deep pipeline is a fair risk.

    We are at a time where many biotech companies have tripled in value in a few years. We will find out that some deserved the valuation and some got carried along on the ride. It is a time to consider both potential and GAAP accounting. AMGN will treat investors well regardless of the market ahead.
    May 4, 2015. 11:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Sciences Is A Great Investment Right Now [View article]
    Excellent article!

    I think the news and revelations of the past month will have an effect on the share price. Those include

    - Hep C market would appear to be 10%-20% larger than previously estimated
    - GILD 1Q sales 10% higher than expected
    - EASL conclusions that GILD HCV products are superior to MRK.
    - ABBV isnt really much of a competitor

    GILD would appear to have a floor to minimize the risk to investors. The upside is the most successful drug in history.

    The secret is the cost is 50% of what people think it is and to actually cure a disease is one of the best treatment values ever offered.

    Predictions

    -Hep C market peak $25 billion in 2016 (20% higher than current expectations)
    -GILD mkt share 80%
    -Hep C market wont drive the shares much higher
    -Pipeline advances or mergers will increase GILD share price
    - Share price hits $110 by Jun 1
    May 4, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene's Plan For Life After Revlimid, With Discussion Of Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I have some work to do if I am going to understand the TCOEs. Look forward to your next article.

    CELG has treated its investors well!
    May 4, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Not Even Bears Can Spin These Results [View article]
    Some valuation observations on GILD!

    - My guess is GILD trades up past $110 sh in short order.
    - Analyst consensus is around $120 after most upgraded GILD price targets
    - Updated Company guidance has Rev inc 7.5% or $2 bil. The GM% for HCV I estimate at 95% and I note guidance did not increase SGA or R&D expenses. Models would likely add $1.8 bil to profit

    Interesting Gilead provided Guidance information from earnings calls

    Date Rev Guidance(bil) GM% Sh Price
    2/2/14 11.3-11.5 75-77 $81.77
    7/23/14 21-23 85-88 $89.80
    10/28/14 22-23 86-88 $110.77
    2/3/15 26-27 87-90 $106.71
    4/30/15 28-29 87-90 $100.51

    Revenue guidance is up 250% with increasing profitability rate in 15 months with the share price up 22.9%. Gross Margin expected up 291% (25.22/8.66).
    May 4, 2015. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Not Even Bears Can Spin These Results [View article]
    Why wont GILD reach $200 share in 2015?

    It would probably take at least $12.50 in EPS. I estimate $11.00 at this time but $12.50 ($3.13 qtr) isnt out of the question. It would then take a 16 PE on $12.50.

    The 16 PE would be more difficult than the earnings even though it is a relatively low PE. HCV is not going to drive the PE higher and every additional HCV dollar probably raises risk and lowers the PE potential.

    GILD is in serious need of immediate non HCV revenue to get more valuation as well as more recognition of its pipeline potential. Things like

    - a buyout/takeover such as Seattle Genetics would advance the Oncology pipeline and bring a genetic component into the mix

    - an advance in Hep B or NASH which both have Phase II research ongoing

    - Joint ventures or any additional biotech revenue needed badly

    - GILD needs to communicate better with shareholders/analysts going forward. Every quarter is a surprise with many analysts missing by 20% or more. We arent complaining this quarter but 3Q 2014 results were very bad. Higher risk means a lower PE and a conservative competition ie estimate Revenue low, estimate GM low, raise projected expenses, look for more problems.

    But Hey I could live with $11 X 14 PE = $154. $200 was just a thinking exercise.
    May 2, 2015. 11:48 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM Might Be salesforce.com's Acquirer [View article]
    This whole concept has the makings of an AOL/Time Warner type deal. Where is Leo Apotheker when he is needed?

    Perhaps a deal could make sense with AMZN currency. Bezos could think like that, take the risk, finance a deal and pull it off.

    In reality I am highly doubtful however that a takeover would happen at this valuation.
    May 1, 2015. 08:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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