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  • General Electric Gets Alstom [View article]
    So much is written about GE and it is almost all emotional. Those who invest in something they dont understand take a big risk.

    Investors should do themselves a favor and let GE become understandable again before investing.
    Sep 9, 2015. 12:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of NantKwest, Dr. Soon-Shiong's Immuno-Oncology Company [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    A very complex web of companies and interlocking agreements makes me question if investors understand how much a success would flow back to the security they purchased.

    If it is this complex on the surface, it may be just as complex underneath with all tentacles leading back into Dr S-S pockets.
    Sep 9, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Psychotic Horse In A Burning Barn [View article]
    How I intend to play Oil and my view

    I believe in capitulation and another drop in Oil. I refer to that as the classic view. Under the classic view investing early is wrong and 1980s confirmed that view.

    My view is I can invest in stages starting early with XOM in the $60s which will provide a good long term return. Upstream producers and MLPs are more dangerous.

    Where I think the classic view could be wrong is if the dollar corrects from its 20% rise against world currencies which I think is likely. I also wonder if today in more managed economies the same level of capitulation and failure will result even though I expect a fair amount.

    Historically after the capitulation a 2nd retest occurs and as long as it took to drop it takes much longer to rise. So a 2nd stage investment might attempt to catch the bottom. 3rd and 4th stages would be after the bottom when a long slow bottom scraping upward path for perhaps a decade long return is a more likely outcome.

    Most investors historically have tended to invest long before the bottom and become disillusioned never to actually profit from their trades.
    Sep 8, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things That Happened On U.S. Labor Day [View article]
    Thanks for some interesting information!
    Sep 7, 2015. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Freeport McMoRan hires JPMorgan to help explore options [View news story]
    Glencore just announced the same thing. Cut debt by $10 billion, sell assets and raise capital with stock issue.

    The economic reality is that more mines are not needed at the moment and a focus on preserving capital to survive is more important. My guess is this will move to the Oil industry as well in fast order.
    Sep 7, 2015. 08:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: The Bull Market Is At Its Most Critical Juncture Since It Began [View article]

    I would submit that market issues are all about earnings in the S&P500. The 3Q earnings period faces stiff headwinds from currency issues.

    Before the China devaluing PEP on 7/9 indicated to analysts it faced a 11% currency impact on revenue and a 12% impact on profits. Since then things have gotten worse. So investors are rightly concerned about what the impact of world events will be on earnings starting with 3Q.
    Sep 7, 2015. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Credit Health Of Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    I do have plans to invest in bonds in the future but at present I just dont like the risk reward scenario.

    No less than Alan Greenspan in a recent interview noted that in history back to the 1600s rates have never been this low and bond prices so high. Who am I to argue with history?
    Sep 6, 2015. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Double Down [View article]
    I enjoy David's work including this article!

    Seems to me good reasons for the market to drop.

    - Outflows of funds from US investments as funds go back home to pay bills, China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia...

    - Oil is on a slow motion train wreck, slowly dropping with no change in practices yet apparent

    - Currency headwinds to affect many corporations profits witness PEP expecting 11%-12% impact before the China devaluation

    - Commodities dropping in concert to reaffirm the weakness around the world

    I am a historically optimistic investor and stay mostly invested, but doubling down just now seems like a doubly bad idea.
    Sep 6, 2015. 07:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now It Gets Interesting [View article]
    Lets take what we know

    - Much of the world is decelerating and funds are being brought back home to pay bills and out of US investments

    - Commodities suggest a significant decline in world business

    - Oil appears to be on a slow motion train wreck that will likely end badly

    - S&P500 earnings are decreasing and facing huge currency headwinds.

    The Fed very much wants to raise rates before the start of an election year. I just dont think they will have an opportunity in Sept/Oct. Hidden beneath all this is that the 10 yr Treas is already higher than it otherwise would be.
    Sep 6, 2015. 07:01 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: Investment Thesis Enhanced [View article]
    I like VZ but it is not without its risks. The 11.38 PE on 2015 est of $3.94 is a good value and the 5.04% dividend is a good actual return.

    I do watch TMUS a comparable fly buzzing around VZs head as of some risk to profit levels and I do worry about the huge debt level. However telecom has always had huge eye popping debt levels. Bottom line I like a more connected world as in more connected to VZ at an 11.38 PE.
    Sep 6, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Inc : Tecfidera Sales Will Recover [View article]
    I own them all and rate BIIB at the bottom. I will rate them

    1) GILD - great innovation and great value. Took over and dominates HIV and now HCV. Working on HBV and NASH. Trading at about a 9 PE on 2015 EPS.

    2) CELG - more expensive in PE but its growth rate and extensive pipeline justify it. Incredible results for nearly 2 decades continue. Small biotech companies want to partner with CELG when they have promising drug concepts and CELG gets its pick

    3) AMGN - 22% return over almost 30 years, great new products

    AMGN is the poster child of stock market success. Invest in a growing company that just grows and you just leave it alone. (Suggest taking a calculator and multiply $1000 X 1.22 for 30 years to understand the impact)

    4) BIIB - long term growth amazing, near term some growth but not a lot and the pipeline outside of Alzheimers which is 4-5 years away if successful is not as visible a source of growth as some others. Perhaps kind of like finishing last in a class at Harvard when next year you might finish first.
    Sep 5, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Credit Health Of Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    I am interested in FCX in this area but many would view it early to invest in a commodity bust trend.

    Interestingly the huge Oil finds are the best investment with a cost of $19 a barrel. It is the Copper mine investments that I question. The only problem with investments now is that they may end up selling more upside by issuing stock or have to sell assets in a bust than the investments generate.

    FCX is a good value but I am waiting mostly for a great value or lower risk.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Credit Health Of Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    Well the prediction of no worsening of credit health lasted a few hours after you wrote it.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: This Dividend Aristocrat Is Attractively Priced [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    Unfortunately I think we have some pain in the markets over the next 2 months. The crushing currency issues could really hurt some companies like PEP, KO and PG both in the PE and the underlying earnings.

    JNJ could as well but I think to a much lesser degree. JNJ had a spurt of profit last year from Olysio that went away hurting this years comparison. Healthcare is the most predictable sector for earnings at 93% meet or beat rate this year.

    So I see more predictable earnings and a lower PE for JNJ than other comparable alternatives. I am not happy about a near 10% decline so far this year. At the same time I am glad I minimized investments in Oil, Mining, Banking, and the PG/PEP/KOs of the world.

    Many of the traditional investing safe harbors look more troublesome this year. Thankfully not JNJ from where we sit today.
    Sep 4, 2015. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Biotech Companies Looking To Find A Niche In The Rheumatoid Arthritis Market [View article]
    Great article!

    Thanks for an excellent contribution.
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment