Seeking Alpha

jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Bank Of America: The Positive Implications Of The Fine Imposed [View article]
    Great article and information!
    Aug 13 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's New 'Data Lake' Is The Bigger Big Data - 2000 Times Faster Than Its Predecessors [View article]
    I find GE to be a good value given its recent transition to revenue and earnings growth along with a compressed forward PE.

    That said I am skeptical about any of the 1000s of GE PR generated reasons why the stock is going to rise. The biggest shock will be when something actually turns out to be of value.

    Does anyone really believe GE has invented advances in data analysis?
    Aug 13 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The September 2014 Recession? [View article]
    Interesting article!

    While I am fully invested and intend to remain so I do think investors should consider a few factors in viewing the markets.

    1) Several Euro countries including Germany are at or near 10 year treasury rates that are at 200-400 year lows. That signals increased risk of a Euro recession.

    2) Japan is in the middle of a 6.8% drop in GDP after initiating a Sales Tax.

    Maintaining expected US growth at 3% could involve some heavy lifting.
    Aug 13 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Counterpoint

    I am with you. MMM has been great and again they innovate grow and build rather than stagnate. ADP as well.
    Aug 13 01:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Dave

    I have owned every one of those stocks and I like dividends, dividend growth and historical analysis.

    At the same time I cannot bury my head in the sand and say KO, PG, MCD and XOM have always been great companies and blindly throw money at them. There needs to be some reasonable expectation for growth looking forward and not decline.

    Any objective look at the past 2 years will show tremendous underperformance to the S&P500 which was easily forecastable based on a lack of growth or outright decline.

    I still own smaller amounts of PG and KO but the transition away from declining companies into JNJ, DIS, HON, AMGN and others dramatically increased returns since the start of 2013.

    JNJ with easily forecastable revenue and earnings growth over the past 2 years has returned about 50%. Your MCD, KO, PG or XOM epitomize decline and stagnation and add them together you will be lucky if you got a 10% 2 year return.

    Each investor can have their own strategy and be successful and I wish you well.

    For those with an open mind would you invest in MRK/PFE or AMGN/BIIB/GILD?

    This is the Biotech century and MRK/PFE since the year 2000 are both down about -20%. A/B/G are up 4800%/800%/86%.

    Would it have hurt you to allocate even 1% of your portfolio? By the way I recall MRK/PFE on the Dividend growth lists until they werent.

    Finally GILD has developed the 1st cure for a major disease in my lifetime with Sovaldi and 150MM Hep C patients are demanding it. With a forward PE of 10 I had to buy some. GILD has some risk but I will put it up against that MCD your so proud of.
    Aug 13 12:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Adding Treasuries To My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    thanks Gratian

    I do understand all that. With regard to TLT once interest rates move from historic lows the TLT value will reflect the new reality. As far as immunizing bond investments I didnt get that from the article.

    If you really think we are at a triple top in stocks it is probably because interest rates are also at historic lows causing bonds to be just as high/risky. Why take risk for near zero return?

    I for example am retired in my 50s and break my retirement into 3 categories Early (up to 70), mid (70-80) and late retirement (80+). My real concern is late retirement due to assumptions 20+ years out, my mental and health status at that time, potential life span etc. It might be helpful for others to scrutinize their own risk more closely.

    If it is late retirement at issue a 58 year old Male might consider a deferred annuity of income for life at age 80. An annual guaranteed $10k annuity at 80 for approximately $33K now. The insurance company is betting you wont live long enough to collect all of it. Which is fine as I am more worried I would live a long long time.

    The best 1st course of action however should be to delay SS until age 70 and get an 8% annual increase in guaranteed payout for life for each year SS is delayed.

    Best of luck to all!
    Aug 12 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Adding Treasuries To My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    I continue to think holding cash in a brokerage account is a better risk than Treasuries for the portion not invested in stocks.

    You may be taking more risk than you understand for minimal reward. As an example

    - You are tying your money up for 20+ years with TLT for less than 3% net and could suffer a significant penalty should you change your mind

    - Can you live long term with those returns?

    - After inflation I think you are earning zilch, nada, nothing, nunca...

    - before I would do that I would buy a life annuity to start at 80 years of age and provide $10k of annual income. The insurance company is betting you will die and offers it cheap. You get guaranteed protection should you live long and perhaps a room at elder care with an outside window since you are guaranteed to be above average in income for your age. With medical advances we might all live longer than we think.

    At the same time I will admit I have been wrong about interest rates consistently for over 30 years.
    Aug 12 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Market Outlook [View article]
    a lot of words used to come up with not a single conclusion of any value.
    Aug 12 06:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Falling Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Thanks for the article!

    I remain one of the few that believes the Fed has and is doing a good job.

    On either end of the spectrum we have the Paul Krugman's of the world advocating huge spending programs. On the other end we have those who would drastically curtail spending in a Hoover type manner forcing us into recession or worse.

    As it is we are growing the economy at a rate faster than inflation which reduces the effective debt level. Employment has improved. Inflation is under control. GDP is growing slightly.

    Things could get much worse if we pursue alternative courses of action. It doesnt take education or skill to comment on the economy, and most of those offering such have little of either.
    Aug 12 10:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    The absurdity of believing that Total Return doesnt matter should be your next research topic.
    Aug 12 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Revisited: Still Cheap And Attractive At These Levels [View article]
    I would just make an investment comment. I sold my JPM in the past month and reinvested. The reason is with 10 year Treasurys at 2.43% and lower in Europe which recently had 4 countries hitting 200-400 year lows, earnings face pressure.

    The 3rd Quarter is almost half complete and I think $52 is a reasonable price at some point prior to the announcement of 3Q earnings in early October.

    I remain fully invested but at only at half weight on banking at the current time.
    Aug 11 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are IBM's Earnings Really Low Quality? [View article]
    I appreciate the attempt at assessing earnings but think the question is

    Should IBM be borrowing $10 bil a year at a time of 4-5% declines in revenue to buy back $18.72 bil in stock annually?

    Personally I sold out of IBM 2 years ago for better growth opportunities. I do think IBM is cheap and will meet their $20 2015 EPS but will do so with increased risk.

    - My view is IBM revenue is suffering from a Hardware unit that is liquidating itself in a decade long process.

    - One can not ignor the $17.2 bil of Operating Cash Flow and there is nothing low quality about that.

    - Management is a question mark as they make crazy statements that cause investors to choose between incompetence and subterfuge as the motive.

    This investor is holding out for a $182 buy price.
    Aug 11 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Won't Be Intimidated As Amazon Flexes Its Online Muscle [View article]
    Appreciate the article!

    AMZN is obviously throwing its weight around behind the scenes. With DIS, AMZN presents a small threat to profiting from their creative content. Some actions they may consider include

    - selling their content direct on their own website
    - banding together with other creators to create an online media distribution company
    - conclude AMZN isnt worth the effort and ignor it

    I wonder if AMZN needs an excuse for not meeting revenue growth targets this quarter. They have a wide variety of initiatives from the Firefly phone, Gaming ventures, TV production, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Fire TV...

    Most of these ventures are outside their core competency, dont get amazing reviews and dont seem to have great potential.

    I have sold my AMZN shares and continue to hold DIS shares which have offered great growth.
    Aug 11 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: A Growth Story [View article]
    Thanks I learned some details in this article.

    I am bullish on GILD and own several hundred shares. At the same time anything can happen as the relative large quantity of short sellers also think they know something.

    We are getting close to the midpoint of the 3rd quarter and my guess is that Sovaldi sales are continuing to grow in relation to its status as the 1st cure for a major disease in my lifetime.
    Aug 11 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM Grossly Undervalued? [View article]
    Thanks for attempting a valuation!

    To try and match IBM with XRX is ridiculous however. XRX is a failed company propped up by government benefits administration contracts.

    I agree IBM is cheap as they have a compressed PE, a stable software and services business and the ability to buy back enough stock to meet the $20 2015 non GAAP earnings goal.

    That said they have a Hardware business that is liquidating itself long term leading to regular charges, higher risk and a management that makes incredulous statements which challenge managerial competency.
    Aug 11 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,246 Comments
2,825 Likes