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  • If It Happened To AbbVie, Could It Also Happen To Gilead? [View article]
    Yes every drug has risks!

    Harvoni/Sovaldi according to John Milligan will have a base of about 1MM patients treated by the time MRKs drug is approved. So perhaps we are at 750k treatments so far.

    Hard to imagine that anything popping up now from GILD drugs would cause a person not to want to be cured from HCV with Harvoni/Sovaldi.

    We are all taking risks. This risk just isnt one of the ones I worry much about.
    Oct 26, 2015. 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon/Chevron Earnings Previews: Fundamentals Deteriorating, But Stocks Have Bounced [View article]
    I would suggest investors wait until after 3Q earnings to consider an investment. Oil is a cruel liquid to investors. Since last December I have held the position that investors should wait until after 3Q or 4Q earnings.

    My guess is that credit hits a hard stop, banks take out some of the weak players and sell their assets and Oil capitulates to a true bottom. Historically that has been correct but perhaps we live in a different era.

    My guess is banks and the entire market take a hit with crushing blows to energy before it is over. XOM, SLB and CVX are great companies to buy when the bottom hits and when it hits you wont have to guess if we are bottoming.

    Invest in stages and after 4Q earnings is another likely stage. As a perspective I am 80% invested but very light on energy and banking.
    Oct 26, 2015. 01:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Key Points To Watch From Gilead Sciences' Upcoming Earnings Release [View article]
    Hopefully this will be the quarter when earnings actually drive the stock higher.

    I am optimistic for GILD long term as I think they will grow their business. I also note several additional positive factors.

    - a ttm PE under 10 will enhance the perception of value
    - the pipeline will likely get more respect and valuation
    - mgt may have been talking down the stock to avoid regulatory issues in the past year and should present a more positive outlook
    - conferences drive money into biotech in Nov/Dec
    - HIV innovation should improve profits in 2016
    - an acquisition will occur and probably before year end

    GILD has been under valued, in an industry that has been undervalued given the growth prospects, in a market that has been undervalued.

    I am invested with an expectation of $3.00 3Q EPS. I do note that others who count scripts more closely have higher expectations and I hope they are correct.
    Oct 26, 2015. 11:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect From Gilead Sciences' Earnings Report [View article]
    Interesting Article!

    I enjoyed seeing the Greenblatt rating.
    Oct 26, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM To Sell; It's About The Dividend Income, Stupid [View article]
    IBM is a great company and I earned great returns for many years. I feel no need to call people names or insult others as the author did. Removing the emotion from this article I do think investors should consider the following.

    - 17% decrease in 4Q EPS projected
    - The credit rating is likely to drop
    - Is a 3.46% IBM div yield better than a 2% treasury or other alternatives?
    - It is easy to say you dont care about the share price, but is that really true?

    I would just say that you should invest by looking forward and measuring an expected investment return as every professional money manager would do.

    For the risk in level in IBM I judge that I can earn a higher reward in other alternatives. Is JNJ or KO a better investment is the question for you.

    Chucks position is to justify his IBM investment and ignor evidence to the contrary. The emotion made for an interesting article but not very good investment advice.
    Oct 25, 2015. 02:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil And Chevron: Swirling, Swirling, Swirling [View article]
    So I have been waiting for 3Q earnings since last December. I believe the Oil earnings will likely be very negative and banks will take credit actions on some weaker companies.

    Historically markets seem to be surprised when earnings actually come in bad in the Oil market. Regarding CVX and XOM I do not believe the dividends will be cut. At the same time I do not believe XOM shares are worth 25% more than the 52 week low.

    Patient investors will get great decade long investment returns with proper patience in both CVX and XOM. I sold all but a miniscule amount of my Oils last December. It has been difficult waiting, but in several past Oil crashes I was always early in my investments. So I have committed to letting the full results get reported and the banking community to take whatever chilling action they see fit.

    Oil drops much farther and stays down much longer than anyone ever thinks possible. When the maximum number of investors have been burned, it will be time to invest.

    My thinking has been that after 3Q earnings one can invest in stages. After 4Q earnings will likely be another stage. Oil will hit $200 a barrel one day, but most early investors will be thrilled if they can just get their money back.
    Oct 25, 2015. 12:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Debt Cycle And Rhymes Of Lehman Brothers [View article]
    Interesting article!

    Investors have many reasons to focus on risk. A good bearish article is as important as the many bullish articles so I thank you for that.

    Perhaps the Commodity piece of the article and the Deutsche derivative piece could have been 2 different articles. Near term, Commodity issues offer significant risk to investors.

    If I ever encounter a Fracturing Monetary Supernova I am quite sure it will wipe the smile off my face.
    Oct 25, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications For Gilead Of The Problems With AbbVie's Competitive Hepatitis C Product [View article]
    Perhaps we all should be judged on the comments that we make which others find of value. You have provided many outstanding insights.

    I was trying to keep Dr Greene interested in commenting and remembered back to when I got my own 15 point list of questions from you. Anyway the Dale Carnegie line was an attempt at a joke.
    Oct 25, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications For Gilead Of The Problems With AbbVie's Competitive Hepatitis C Product [View article]
    Dr acgreene

    I enjoyed your comments and I hope you will comment again in the future.

    CSYJ was out of line in my opinion.

    I had to laugh a couple months ago when he attacked me because I disliked an analyst who he proceeded to tell me was his favorite GILD analyst.

    I am guessing that Dale Carnegie course for him was GILDs worst investment.
    Oct 24, 2015. 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Edwards Lifesciences - Is Growth Sustainable? [View article]
    I have been a shareholder for a couple of years and wanted to check on EW prospects. It is a worry that the growth has slowed with a still high PE and growing competition.

    EW has an impressive TAVR product which just got an expanded approval from the FDA. So it should grow and continue to lead the market. The stock refused to go down much in the recent downturn so it has investor support.
    Oct 23, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: A Fallen Dividend Aristocrat [View article]
    So today I initiated a small position in WMT.

    Its part of my occasional buy ugly approach. The stock got crushed on earnings and outlook as it should have. It has since settled lower to a 12 PE and is at an attractive valuation as the world worships AMZN.

    I am not a long term investor in WMT, but I think I can earn a dividend and earn a 10% return by year end. I note

    - RSI around 25
    - investment in stores does have opportunity
    - WMT has more advantages than many other AMZN competitors
    - Christmas is coming and a little euphoria
    - WMT is bottoming off of low stock market level
    - The WMT fundamental value hasnt decreased by 35% this year

    I bought 50% of a potential position because it could drop a little more. However it is a very negative time for WMT stock and some of that is emotional.
    Oct 23, 2015. 12:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Gains From AbbVie's Pain [View article]
    GILD shares are trading premarket at $108.50 as I write 10 min before the open.

    I may have to buy some additional shares.
    Oct 23, 2015. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Problems With Valeant's Valuation, With Comments On Recent News [View article]
    Dont fret I am just saying the stocks dropped swiftly.
    Avoiding unnecessary risk is important and I did not see either of these events coming. Both may have significant additional developments that could impact the industry.
    Oct 23, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Problems With Valeant's Valuation, With Comments On Recent News [View article]
    Great article!

    Once again I enjoyed reading about all the details.

    Between ABBV and VRX lots of bombs are dropping in this sector. Makes me wonder if any other problems will emerge.
    Oct 23, 2015. 01:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Pops Today- Still A Buy Pre Earnings? [View article]
    a few thoughts

    The pipeline so to speak just got 10%-15% HCV pop. It is unlikely any new drug was going to match that anyway.

    I dont know exactly what GILD is worth... but it is a hell of a lot more than $108 that it closed today. I am thinking $125-$140.

    Interesting back in June, John Milligan stated that GILD would have about 1MM patients treated effectively before MRK comes to market with no treatment history. He thought MRK would have a hard time competing and I agree.

    Explain why a customer should take something other than a proven safe and effective drug for HCV?
    Oct 22, 2015. 09:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment