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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    It has been a good month.

    Looking back 6 weeks ago I was expecting $10.50+ a share EPS as analysts were predicting $9.50+ EPS. Then I was expecting $11.50+ after EPS came out and analysts bumped up to $10.50+EPS.

    Now $12+ EPS is my expectation and I suspect analysts will bump into the $11 range soon given increasing world expectations.

    In the big stock market poker table GILD might be at the revenue game saying I will take that bet and raise you a REGN ($3+ billion revenue).
    Jun 11, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portola's Lymphoma Drug Looks Good At ASCO [View article]
    I listened to the presentation Portola gave at the GS conference. It gave me a better understanding of the products and their potential. It is worth a listen!

    I place more value on the Andexanet and Betrixaban products rather than the cancer research, though it is interesting.
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Approaching 52-Week Highs And Going Higher [View article]
    After yesterday estimates for US HCV have to go up based on Milligan's description of US HCV as extraordinary.

    Then world HCV estimates sounded even better. France up, Italy wants to triple patient volume, Japan larger more immediate need than ever.

    Almost to much good news to handle.
    Jun 10, 2015. 07:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ad Comm gives thumbs up to Amgen's Repatha [View news story]
    The stock price at close indicated as much. It would be a shocker if the populations vote differed from yesterday with Praluent.
    Jun 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' (GILD) Management Presents at Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Why is the stock up?

    Lets see Robin W first made bullish comments about HCV in Europe in the morning yesterday

    "so we are seeing a rapid focus on pricing and reimbursement in the E.U., generally"

    then in this interview Milligan says re Harvoni/Sovaldi and HCV

    "So the United States is actually going – I mean it’s going extraordinarily well"

    "The interesting thing about Europe is there has been very strong political commitment to treating more patients. So more money committed in the budgets. France committed quite a bit more money versus last year. Italy is trying to commit to treating three times more patients than they ever have before as an aspiration."
    Jun 10, 2015. 04:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 3 Fabulous Pharma Stocks [View article]
    I am glad you mentioned BMY as I think it illustrates why some growth stocks may be less risky than others.

    BMY had $19 bil of revenue 10 yrs ago and today has $15 bil. Yet it trades at a 50 PE based on Optivo. It may hit a HR for huge gains or it may be that the wind is blowing in and is just an out.

    AMGN and GILD as an example might be lower risk opportunities. Some of the richest valuations I see are on zero growth companies that suddenly expect to fly to the moon like PFE, LLY and BMY.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: P/E And The Pipeline Beyond HCV [View article]
    on a lighter note

    GILD is missing a large part of the Liver disease market. They need to develop a treatment for ASH (Alcoholic hepatitis). One pill a day chased with a Budweiser.

    I am only half kidding. Liver health is liver health and alcohol issues are probably greater than everything else combined. I would enjoy seeing them estimate the size and duration of that market.
    Jun 10, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dip In Amgen: Focus On Repatha And Other Aspects Of The Pipeline [View article]
    Some significant changes have occurred in a week.

    An advisory panel is likely to limit the market in the US significantly over the market outlined in the article for Repatha.

    AMGN stock is likely to trade lower before rising is a guess. However AMGN is growing and trading at a reasonable PE before Repatha.

    I am not medically trained but I have to think that the group of people it is likely to be approved for, really needs this alternative. A slower growth rate for Repatha isnt all bad.

    Longer term investors have the ability to invest in a successful long term winner at a reasonable price and build a position. I still like the projected 2016 growth in AMGN vs the price of shares.

    AMGN is a good investment without PCSK9 and PCSK9 is likely to build profit in a solid upward path.
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron up 1.1% as trading reopens after Ad Comm approval [View news story]
    If a Dr wanted to prescribe Praluent to a patient who had very high cholesterol but not family inherited as the label restricts... what would happen?

    If a patient said cholesterol is high in my entire family, its genetic what would happen?

    AMGN got a less restrictive label submitted for approval in Europe. It could be interesting to see the difference in uptake.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' (GILD) Management Presents at Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Perhaps Howard Liang could listen or read this interview since he is a GILD analyst. With a little multiplication he might find out how far off his $2.1 billion estimate in HCV revenue is.

    Just forgetting that 2Q is above 1Q volume he could take the 70,000 patients treated in a quarter X a lazy computation $90,000 list price = $6.30 bil X 54% ( assuming every last dollar of discount was claimed ) = $3.4 bil.

    Even using overly conservative assumptions he is off by 40%.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: So Much More Than HCV [View article]
    You are technically correct.

    I was referring to the treatment rate. Today brought more news of increased treatment prospects in Europe and Japan. Both Robin W at Wm Blair conference and John Milligan at GS conference were positive on Europe with things mentioned like "increased budgets" and "aggressive uptakes".

    In Japan I note the g2 estimates increased from 200k to 225k and sales have begun for those patients. I think I remember a Brazil mention as well.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dip In Amgen: Focus On Repatha And Other Aspects Of The Pipeline [View article]
    I thought it was a good time to buy some more AMGN as price dropped preceding FDA panel outcomes. Interesting the different news flows regarding PCSK9 drugs between Europe and the US.

    AMGN first hit the current level last October when earnings were about 10% lower.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: P/E And The Pipeline Beyond HCV [View article]
    Milligan also mentioned a strong political commitment in Europe including increased budgets in some cases.

    He also said regarding discounting that more discounting will fall into this quarter as agreements in many cases were concluded in Feb and had not taken full effect in 1Q.

    He also mentioned

    - starting off last yr 140k patient treated this year 70k in 1Q or double the pace and sees no reason that wont continue
    - that Harvoni has an advantage in genotype 1a over MRK
    - Japan 225k geno 2 patients which are typlically older 60s, more progression and separately 800k geno 1 patients
    - Harvoni can treat more difficult or fragile patients as fewer complications
    - GILD HCV performance in field matching lab results/expectations
    Jun 9, 2015. 02:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: P/E And The Pipeline Beyond HCV [View article]
    I would note that GILD has had an upward bias for several days but held in check by the market. My guess is with 21 days left in the quarter the estimates would seem to need to be revised upward. Especially by the private institutional advisors.

    The timing of the increase was in conjunction with the Wm Blair conference where Robin W did indicate that they see an " aggressive uptake to Harvoni in Europe"

    Receptos seems like an unlikely match for GILD acquisition to me. They are expensive, have little revenue and dont match GILDs current pipeline thrust. Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn's are tangential and MS is outside GILD's desired wheel house IMO. GILD would only buy if they thought they were buying a cornerstone drug.

    All that said I would not discount your Receptos theory completely. Possibly with 2 investor conferences today some thought an opportunity on news existed as well.
    Jun 9, 2015. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca should bag Receptos analyst says, but others are circling [View news story]
    That is a huge price for a company that basically doesnt have any revenue. I would like to learn more about the product science that justifies such a valuation.
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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