jstratt

jstratt
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  • Why Dip Buyers Will Get Clobbered: The U.S. Economy Isn't Doing 'Just Fine'  [View article]
    The only problem with this article is the premise isnt true.

    As an example in early 2007 discussion of a financial crisis started and it continued with numbers increasing from millions to billions to hundreds of billions...

    By the start of 2008 everyone was well aware that a financial problem existed and a recession was a strong possibility. By Jun 2008 a full financial drop off was under way.

    One should never lose sight of financial issues and the impact on markets. Still blatent misrepresentation doesnt add value.
    Jan 26, 2016. 10:29 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant's Pearson still uncertain on return to work  [View news story]
    After the Senate hearings are over he will stage a miraculous recovery.
    Jan 26, 2016. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Deserves A Piece Of Every Dividend Growth Portfolio  [View article]
    I enjoyed an interesting view of both GILD and AMGN prospects.

    Most investors would do well to think of them as large pharma companies with huge cash flows, growing dividend returns and growing businesses.

    Since the average S&P500 company has declining earnings I find much less risk in these names than in most other S&P categories. My investment mix includes CELG as well.

    An investment in AMGN, GILD and CELG at current levels I believe has lower risk and much higher return probabilities than the market itself. Growth is hard to find and at a reasonable price is unusual.
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Closes Galapagos Deal- Opens Up Massive Market Opportunity  [View article]
    I wasnt impressed by the Galapagos deal.

    That said GILD certainly intends to combine it with other pipeline drugs and sees a market or markets to attack. Given company history it will likely be at least marginally profitable.

    My hope remains that GILD is able to advance HBV research by the end of 2016. With the 5 drugs in works and huge effort underway I think that is very possible.
    Jan 25, 2016. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Stock Is Up 28% Since Earnings. Is This For Real?  [View article]
    mts/dadick/Crudely

    You are correct I do not understand. Those questions I developed mostly a year ago and then moved on to find better investment opportunities.

    My point is that the market will assess your calculations and I will watch and learn. I am a fan of GAAP rather than perhaps Kindernomics until then. That 4.6 bil in Goodwill might be a bit squishy.

    To Crudely I might add that I am not questioning how long pipes last but how long anything of value to flow through the pipe might last.

    If and when I get serious about investing in KMI it will be because the Oil crash has passed and KMI has maintained cash flows well enough to survive and offer excellent future prospects.

    Right now an investment is the equivalent of selling hurricane insurance as the wind is picking up.
    Jan 23, 2016. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Stock Is Up 28% Since Earnings. Is This For Real?  [View article]
    I would not touch KMI and I would sell if I owned any.

    Here is why?

    1) On a trailing PE basis of 29 it may be at double or more its FMV.
    2) What if Rich Kinder has a number of shares on margin? I dont know if he does but he is not a timid investor.
    3) What % of the pipelines will not have a 30 year economic life?
    4) Do you think Oil has hit bottom?
    5) Taking an industry view is bad news ahead?
    6) $43 billion of debt
    7) Increasing earnings projected - really???
    8) That dividend payout was 346% - interesting???
    9) So far the great O&G stewards of capital havent even had a bankruptcy of consequence.
    10) You have no idea if KMI is even worth .05c
    Jan 22, 2016. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Would Be Wise To Cover A Relief Rally In Gilead With This Strategy  [View article]
    I continue to like GILD and bought more at $87.50 a couple days back.

    At that point GILD was trading at 5X cash with a $125 bil market cap. If you take the $125 bil - $25 bil cash - $50 bil HIV and non HCV - $5 bil pipeline = $45 bil HCV mkt cap.

    HCV whatever you think is the most profitable business in the S&P500. It was trading at about 2.2X sales and 30% cash flow returns in my view.

    Investors at this level should be very happy long term.
    Jan 22, 2016. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric's Q4 Update Kills Pre-Market Gains - Now What?  [View article]
    GE had another huge decline in earnings from the prior year.

    At the beginning of each quarter earnings are guided down and the headline reads beat.

    In 30 years of following GE I am unsure if I have ever seen a decline in orders. I would love to see the methodology used to calculate orders.

    I really thought GE was set up to report an excellent quarter. So far the debt is still huge. Jeff Immelt is a horrible leader and GE is a horrible investment.

    An 18 PE is very high for decline.
    Jan 22, 2016. 10:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Bonds More Fun? The Case For Bonds Over Stocks  [View article]
    DrX should be congratulated on his timing as the TLT has outperformed stocks recently.

    I wont pretend to share similar views on risk and valuation but I like reading about any strategy that works for a period of time and to judge it on its merits.

    For the most part I prefer cash to Treasuries. When I looked the TLT had a negative yield in 2016. So what is the exit strategy from the bonds? How will you decide to switch back to stocks?
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Hated Stock Produces Solid Numbers  [View article]
    I have made a lot of money with IBM over the years. Will likely be an IBM shareholder again in the future.

    In the meantime I find it interesting that actual shareholders would be defending 4 years of decline as if some sort of success has taken place.

    If you actually invested a few years back on the $20.00 EPS target, you might find $13.50 a little lacking.

    I note IBM first reached its current level in 1999 a mere 17 years ago. But then 3rd graders are able to calculate positive vs negative on their own.
    Jan 21, 2016. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect From Gilead's Dividend In 2016?  [View article]
    I am a total return guy but GILD did not introduce a dividend without a long term double digit growth commitment.

    Added shares today at $87.50 which was roughly $125 bil less $25 bil cash.

    - Market Cap just over 3X sales
    - non HCV business worth at least $50 bil
    - Pipeline worth not less than $5 bil
    - HCV bus probably the most profitable business in the S&P500 is valued at $45 bil mkt cap, just over a 2 PE

    Upside potential

    - Introduction of Pan genotype HCV drug and potential to cure entire countries expected mid year

    - HIV and non HCV expecting double digit growth

    - HBV promising with 5 drugs in works. 200MM have HBV and 1MM die each year. GILD Viread currently treats HBV. GILD leaders have stated we think we understand how to cure HBV but we arent there yet.

    - growing Oncology business and heavy emphasis on huge NASH market.

    Stock has the potential to double with minimal downside risk.
    Jan 20, 2016. 11:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought More IBM Stock After Its 'Terrible' Earnings  [View article]
    I admire the authors patience thru 15 straight quarters of decline and the 4 more ahead given the horrendous EPS guidance.

    It is possible that IBM could make a turn but I think I will wait for evidence. Adding company risk on top of market risk just now doesnt seem appropriate. Plus the leadership is horrible and needs to be replaced.

    I did listen to the earnings call and was struck when the CFO indicated that they have moved assets from the software category into the Cloud/Growth category. No wonder the Cloud/Growth category keeps rising. Does that mean you take 100% - 36% growth to get 64% decline?

    If IBM was such a good buy would they have to run 100s of commercials daily on CNBC to get people interested in buying the stock? Would they appear to have to pay writers and commenters to promote IBM in the media?
    Jan 20, 2016. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fundamental Look At Gilead Sciences  [View article]
    As one who is very long GILD I would just say that nothing about GILDs performance suggests it will not have at least an equal and opposite reaction in price.

    Earnings continue to rise and development of advances in HIV with TAF, in HBV with several drugs pangenotypic HCV and other areas bode well for the future.

    If company performance was the issue I would sell. Stock markets go down and that is part of investing. We shall we what happens.

    I will say that GILD has traded much lower than I expected for over a year. If its earnings continue to grow as I expect, new heights are ahead.

    In the meantime money flowing out of the markets may provide the direction for the GILD share price.
    Jan 19, 2016. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Hated Stock Produces Solid Numbers  [View article]
    I hope IBM is paying the author well for this article.

    So a -17% year over year decrease in earnings is a positive?

    A guidance from $15.00 2016 EPS to $13.50 is positive?

    16 straight negative quarters and a prediction for 4 more given the guidance is a positive?

    Every division negative revenue is a positive?

    You are an embarrassment to anyone with a 3rd grade education level
    Jan 19, 2016. 07:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Business Machines (IBM) Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Webcast  [View article]
    Guidance 2016 $13.50 and 1Q 16% of that $2.16

    Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!

    I am shocked they can come out quarter after quarter and talk about how well they are doing and deliver 16 straight quarters of decline, with a forecast of more to come.
    Jan 19, 2016. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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