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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Ballmer Is Almost Out, But Microsoft's Problems Are Far From Over [View article]
    I dont want to complain too much... but couldnt Ballmer leave sooner.
    Aug 23, 2013. 04:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Microsoft/Ballmer [View news story]
    I would sell MSFT for a trade as the 8.7% rise on Ballmer news is emotional and will dissipate nearly as quickly as it arrived.
    Aug 23, 2013. 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Company Earnings Analysis [View article]
    Perhaps things arent as bad as people seem to think.

    The market for PCs is declining... but the market for computing devices is exploding

    What is clear is that HPQ has suffered from horrid leadership for 20+ years except in the 5 year Mark Hurd era.
    Aug 23, 2013. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is About 6% Undervalued At Today's Levels [View article]
    How do you think low interest rates due to QE affects this analysis?

    I did enjoy reading about your approach.
    Aug 22, 2013. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shiller CAPE Isn't the Only Metric Showing A Severely Overvalued Market ... [View article]
    Good job providing an informative article on the subject.

    My viewpoint doesnt support CAPE as a predictor, for example when the S&P hit 666 back in 2009 CAPE still suggested prices were too high. I like to focus on a point like that because I feel it was a point of extreme fear and bearishness and if a model was accurate it would pick that up.

    Also if I followed the CAPE model I would have missed most or all of the past 5 year bull market.
    Aug 21, 2013. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Legal Jujitsu Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    Great article!

    The best thing to hope for is that the rackets continue to get exposed. The evil empire will usually seal its own doom!
    Aug 21, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Market's Fear Of Summers [View article]
    I would favor Larry Summers because it is in the best interest of the US to have a recognized financial leader as Fed chairman. Larry is a known quantity and respected worldwide.

    While Janet Yellen has a good resume we are at a time in history where we need a person that has the maximum experience and worldwide leadership.

    Unfortunately Janet Yellen will get the job primarily due to gender. She has been quieter than a church mouse at the Fed so it is hard to see where others genuinely develop a strong conviction for her.
    Aug 20, 2013. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish Sentiment Hits Highest Level In Survey History [View article]
    I understand the feelings illustrated by the poll.

    It has been a great year with a huge July. Then I hear of 3rd world slowdown stories such as China, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia. Finally I listen to the Fed, IMF and other authorities who are actively demanding better risk protection for banks.

    As an investor I have stayed nearly 100% invested since the beginning of the rally in 2009. With a huge run however I am selling higher risk positions, buying lower risk positions and moving to an 80/20 invested model.
    Aug 20, 2013. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Cheapest Of The Big Banks, With 45%+ Upside Potential [View article]
    I have sold most of my C in the past week. The emerging markets are having problems from China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia...

    I like C but with a cold wind blowing in their world lending arena I dont mind taking 6-12 weeks off. I have also lightened up from an overweight position on banks to an underweight position.

    It may be that the bad things I hear about each of the markets mentioned are overblown. It may be that we dont have a fall dip. But after a great year I dont mind reducing risk.
    Aug 19, 2013. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Has Entered The Bargain Bin [View article]
    I really enjoyed the article!

    What is not to like about 6% rev growth and a 10PE?

    For at least 5 years CSCO is priced as if it is about to fall off a cliff and eminent decline. Yet each year and even each quarter CSCO just moves ahead.

    This investor values CSCO at $30 share based on 14 x fwd yr earnings. I would add that Chambers has been a man of his word and if anyone begins to believe his statement on the earnings call
    watch out.

    Chambers said

    "My confidence in our ability to be the #1 IT Company is increasing. Our fourth quarter was a record on many fronts, with record revenue, and record non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP earnings per share. In every case, we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. We also generated $4 billion in operating cash flow in the quarter, another record," stated Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers.
    Aug 19, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Might Be Twisting Its Cash Flow Statement [View article]
    This article was listed under short ideas on Seeking Alpha!

    NFLX is not a stock I would invest in which is a decision I made nearly a year ago. At the time NFLX was a stock with a $3 billion market cap.

    My point then was if NFLX ever was sold at least 10 different companies would pay perhaps 10 billion to buy it in a bidding war. Further that AMZN and others couldnt duplicate NFLX for its valuation.

    Today with a 15 billion market cap NFLX seems expensive. The question isnt what an investor with common sense would pay for it. The question is what the believer would pay for the model to provide television to the world in a decade.

    My point is that shorting a stock like NFLX could be a very dangerous exercise. Especially in a loose money world for deep pocket investors with minimal interest rates.

    AMZN proves the point!
    Aug 19, 2013. 12:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel 2013 Half-Time Report: Things Are Looking Ugly, But The Worst Is Nearly Past [View article]
    I think I will stick with the comment I made to your previous article below. The previous article which essentially said buy now or lose out forever.
    -------------

    I said

    INTC is an interesting stock to watch. Frankly I dont see a compelling argument to buy now or miss the boat.

    A small position in INTC is fine until prospects become more clear. That is especially true when INTC is lowering guidance. It is hard to understand the evangelical mentality of must buy it now or lose out forever.
    --------------

    The real opportunity comes when people lose the INTC fervor and begin to question INTC and even its existence. I do believe INTC will come through in the end.
    As a trout fisherman my analogy is to invest like a rainbow trout tasting a bait when presented properly and not like a largemouth bass swallowing anything that moves.
    Let INTC seek its value before buying. A strategy may be to set a buy at $2 below current price and another at $4 below current price.
    PS You cant lose something you never had!
    Aug 19, 2013. 12:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier 1 firms out to defend Cisco [View news story]
    I liked the overall results of CSCO but I am apparently in the minority. CSCO significantly increased its cash flow again and I am partial to a company that generates huge cash flow.

    The ability to generate huge cash flow relative to market cap allows for significant share buybacks and easy future earnings comparisons.
    Aug 15, 2013. 08:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Still Have To Worry About Europe [View article]
    I would suggest that the worry center closer to home. Economies have a way of balancing out.

    Few people worry about an economy after 4+ years of market returns. It might be that is the time to worry as nothing lasts forever.
    Aug 15, 2013. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Was A Successful Failure [View article]
    I am a big fan of your articles!

    Based on the title I was ready to strongly disagree but less so after reading the entire article.

    I am of a mind that so far the Fed has been a huge success with its policies. My thesis is that the money was needed to make up for the loss of velocity due to the huge securitizations. Further that we avoided up til now a severe deflationary event that would have cut muscle from the economy.

    In a once in a lifetime type of economic downturn it can be dangerous to assume it is over after the stock market rises for a few years. History documents more severe impact to investors in these past events.
    Aug 14, 2013. 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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