Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Amazon: Expect $200, Not $400 [View article]
    Interesting article!

    Some positives

    Free Cash Flow is $5.33 billion for the past 12 months so AMZN is profitable in my book.

    Growth is slowing in rate as the company has grown huge but is projected to add nearly $20 billion in revenue in the coming year to $109.9 billion

    The reality however is that AZMN seems to be wildly betting on a new phone, and many other products in varied areas. Maybe one will be a hit but I dont see a track record to suggest that.

    The original content could work and I dont view a competition with Netflix as a win or lose as there may be room for both.

    In AWS IBM and AMZN along with others are throwing huge capital into trying to be a cloud company. What will materialize is an open question.

    Bottom line is try as I might I cant value AMZN above $250 per share. Institutional investors and insiders appear to own 95% of the shares so not many individual shareholders exist.

    I would point out that AMZN is really different than any other company and so most dont understand how to value it. AMZN is focused on increasing long term Free Cash Flow per their 10k and not EPS. My concern is not that AMZN isnt profitable but that the internal investment does not seem rational.
    Jul 25, 2014. 08:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: A Golden Dividend Opportunity Is Never Offered Twice [View article]
    I have been buying VZ since the pre announcement of 2Q growth a few weeks ago. I like dividends when the company is also growing its business as is VZ.

    If VZ can continue its growth rate it should be a great long term investment. The PE valuation does not yet recognize the turn toward growth. So I feel VZ has an additional Total Return opportunity.
    Jul 25, 2014. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Excitement That Surrounds Gilead [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    I think the excitement can be summed up by recognizing that GILD has invented the first cure for a major disease in my lifetime and the sales for this product are exploding.
    Jul 24, 2014. 10:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Earnings [View article]
    How to value AMZN?

    Is the $0.27 qtrly loss per share the correct focus or the 292% increase in Free Cash Flow to $5.33 billion on an annual basis?

    Is AMZN fundamentally profitable but trading profitability for 20%+ revenue growth? If not how do you internally fund 20%+ growth year after year?

    AMZN is projected to be roughly a $100 Billion sales company in 12 months. What makes AMZN intriguing is that the assumptions you make can have a wide variation and a great opportunity for profit or loss. We have never before seen anything like an AMZN!

    Jul 24, 2014. 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    The author sold his assets and now must write articles about how much he hates the bull market.

    The good news is he may have invented a cure for insomnia!
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:55 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is A Better Buy Than This Rival [View article]
    I enjoyed an excellent article!
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Reports Impressive Results But It's Only Getting Started [View article]
    FB had really great results and on a momentum basis should continue to surge.

    That said I am not buying as I just dont understand the value. I am not saying it isnt there, just that I dont get it. To invest I need both growth and an understanding of value.

    I did invest in GILD however as I can see the advantages of a cure for diabetes and rapid growth that makes the valuation seem reasonable.

    Good luck to FB investors who are likely to see at least near term upside and possibly much more.
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Re-Analysis Of Gilead After Q2 Results And The Early Idelalisib Approval [View article]
    Thank you for an outstanding article!

    I bought some GILD today as I think it has to rise given the 2Q results, valuation and scientific advancement.

    At the same time I do see potential insurance issues, congressional pricing investigations, state regulatory actions and competitive threats.

    The large short position is an indicator that additional information is believed to exist probably due to some of the above.

    In the end roughly 100% revenue growth and 200% earnings growth can cure a lot of problems. Further it wont be easy to halt the cure for a major disease.
    Jul 24, 2014. 02:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Even This Raging Bull Was Too Pessimistic [View article]
    I bought some GILD today.

    Sovaldi is a historic new medicine. I cant remember a cure to a major disease in my lifetime other than Sovaldi.

    The only fly in the ointment is that it may get restricted by insurance since it costs $88000 for a treatment. That said it is presumably hard to replicate and the entire world will want it.

    I wonder what the net cost is after spending $88k does it save $45k in further expenses or just how much if any?

    Anyone who hasnt read the NY Times article should do so.

    Good luck investors!
    Jul 24, 2014. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Union Pacific Poised To Beat The Whisper Number? [View article]
    I hold UNP and like the projected growth of 15.17% for the next 5 years.

    That said UNP will rise and fall with the economy so I take that expected growth with a grain of salt. At a 19.94 PE on the latest 4 quarters of earnings it is fairly valued.

    Estimating a year end price of $105 if 4Q comes in as expected.
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will General Electric's Strategic Reorganization Help Electrify The Company's Performance? [View article]
    Excellent article!

    Perhaps a good plan is to sell some shares into a rise that may occur with the Synchrony spinoff and reinvest into a better opportunity.

    While I have been reluctant to sell out of GE, better positions come along and I have whittled down my position.

    Random observations

    - Cash flows from Operating Activities 2013 = $28.579 bil 2012 = $31.331 bil 2011 = $33.359 bil (last 4 qtrs $28.93 bil) So a decline of $4.78 bil in Cash Flow from 2011 to 2013

    - Still managed by the leadership that cratered the company so that the share price is now where it first reached in 1997. The BOD bold response has been to question the Immelt 20 year CEO tenure plan.

    - 6 years after the Great Recession GE is ambling along with its 10 year recovery plan. Take Synchrony they promoted that heavily last Nov causing the stock to rise and keep pushing it back, delaying, reconsidering, strategizing, rethinking, proposing to exchange for GE shares, on and on.

    I bought GE in 2009 at $7+ and thought GE could get back to $30+ in 5 years. Slowly I am recognizing reality.
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell AT&T: Competition Hurts Results [View article]
    What is worse is that T changed the way it recognizes revenue such that revenue was going to be higher by a few percent moving forward.

    I was ready to move back into T but not with these results at the current price level. I moved back into VZ after they pre announced excellent growth.
    Jul 23, 2014. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T misses by $0.01, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I think it is a story of how much impact TMobile will have on ATT. I have been waiting for T results to decide about an investment. I am not inclined to invest at this time.
    Jul 23, 2014. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do PepsiCo's 2nd Quarter Results Mean For Shareholders? [View article]
    Here is what PEP results mean to one investor!

    - The past 5 year growth rate of 2.91%

    - PEP can continue to improve the stock price by using cash flow to buy shares and add about 2 billion in debt annually.

    - PEP is fully valued at present

    - PEP is low risk and low growth but does have some growth

    - Dividend ok probably a 5% increase moving forward

    Not a bad stock but not a great stock either with perhaps a 5-7% annual gain opportunity.
    Jul 23, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman's Latest Debt Denial: Why His Two Magic Numbers Don't Cut It [View article]
    I dont like Krugman's positions but I also fear the Stockman logic. We do need to plan and we do need to be fiscally responsible.

    I believe we are moving in that direction. Right now we are in a less difficult period but we will have difficult periods ahead financially.

    The US, China, Europe are all at a similar debt level to the US economy. Japan is significantly higher.

    Capitalist economies havent just expanded dramatically for several centuries by chance. A stable growth policy across the world has assisted and stopped the damage in 2008 as an example. Each country has its own best interest at stake and stable growth is a common interest.

    In the Great Depression we suffered heavily as we got more and more restrictive and starved the economy of money supply. My greatest concern is that the same pressures will return and cause another very destructive and deflationary wave.

    Today we are walking a tightrope but growing the economy faster than inflation. In my mind that is a good thing. Should we deviate from that path we will all feel the pain.
    Jul 23, 2014. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment