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jstratt

jstratt
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  • 43 Dividend Champions On Sale: A Rare Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for another excellent article
    Jan 8 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Year-End Lookback On My 2011 Investment Game Plan [View article]
    I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

    Not many predictions were correct. So not many prognosticators have bothered to follow up.
    Jan 6 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Permanent Asset Allocation [View article]
    David I always enjoy your articles!

    I might try your strategy with a portion of funds, excepting for the Bonds. I would be more likely to implement the strategy with RE in place of Bonds.
    Jan 6 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Scarcity Of Alpha [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I still suspect China scams are out there in abundance. My guess is those funds probably still believe so as well, but dont want to telegraph their actions.
    Jan 6 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you add them all up, exuberant single-stock predictions by analysts would have the S&P 500 up over 16% in 2012, more than double what market strategists are forecasting. Despite the skeptics, if analysts are right, 2012 could be the best performance for U.S. stocks since the 20% gain in 2009 after the financial crisis. Even a mid-range compromise - which tends to be the case more often than not - would notch up a healthy 12% gain over the new year.  [View news story]
    I just invest in a broad range of assets at all times. Many of my favorite stocks have been priced attractively. A 10% return does not seem out of the realm of possibility for 2012.

    In late 2011 some great opportunities came around such as KO at or below $66, BAC at or below $5.50, EMR at or below $46, GE at or below $16, ORCL at or below $25.50. My guess is double digit returns in 2012 even from the year end closing prices.

    I also like RE and Gold, not so much bonds however.
    Jan 3 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump The Gun On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    As a long term owner of PG I lightened up in 2009 and again in 2010 and 2011. The pressure on consumers to reduce spending did not favor PG products.

    This year PG could hit $71 and provide a safer reasonable return. It isnt one of my largest holdings but it has a place. For the record I think they manage debt well and would not find this to be a time to significantly alter the debt level.
    Jan 3 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acme Packet Warns, Shares Slide [View article]
    So far it has been quiet with few negative pre announcements.

    That is a good sign and bullish for stocks. Especially when the market has been priced for a slowdown.
    Jan 3 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM A Buy Right Now? [View article]
    I agree with the authors thesis that IBM may have risen above fair value. As a long term IBM bull I have been shaving my holdings after years of building IBM into my largest position.

    Here are some reasons why

    1) A new CEO is unlikely to be able to match Palmisano who I would count in the Top 1% of CEOs of any era.

    2) After several years of single digit PEs, IBM has expanded its PE to near 15

    3) The industry is signaling slower growth as IBM seemed to have a tougher quarter last quarter and ORCL had a significant miss.

    My strategy

    As IBM surged past $190 I sold 10%. I have since shaved another 10%. I have been investing in ORCL since it had its mini crash and earnings miss.

    IBM is a great company and IBM has sold its smarter planet vision. Then Buffett bought and many others seem to have piled into the trade. I dont mind taking some profits and wait for an opportunity to reenter.

    Both ORCL and IBM will grow revenue and throw off huge cash flows. Both should buy back shares and grow earnings at a significant rate.

    I will shave again above $190 but plan to hold IBM for a long time. A reasonable range in the coming year would be $160 - $215.
    Jan 3 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: A Conservative Dividend Stock For 2012 [View article]
    The author makes some excellent points. I would add a few thoughts on KO.

    KO is a reasonable buy at $70. Since August I have tripled my long term position in KO at prices below $66. An investor could hopefully average in at a price below $70.

    My calculation in the fall was $76 1 year price / $66 current price = 15% gain plus 3% dividend = 18% expected 1 year gain opportunity.

    Anything can happen but the risk weighted investment opportunity seemed attractive. At $70 a share a projected 10% 1 year gain opportunity is implied.
    Jan 3 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: Take Advantage Of Product Recalls And High Dividends [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article.

    I have moved back into JNJ over the past 6 months for many of the reasons listed in the article.

    That said one additional reason I have moved back into JNJ is because CEO Weldon has screwed up virtually every product they produce year after year for the past 5 years. As an investor when numerous products in every category are recalled the only conclusion is an institutional lack of control. When the products are orthotic replacements, drugs and ingestable products the risk is much higher. By the way the stock was higher 5 years ago than it is today.

    JNJ is a great company and I have been a long term holder with a minimal position in recent years. In todays market, the risk to reward seems better than many other investments so I have been buying.

    All in all I would feel better if Weldon joined Ken Lewis and Angelo Mozillo on the golf course.
    Dec 29 10:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earn More Than 10% Yield Backed By The Ford Motor Company [View article]
    Interesting article! Thank you for the contribution!
    Dec 29 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy And The Coming Collapse Of Bond Prices [View article]
    The author makes several excellent points.

    I would add that the overhang of non US government debt can likely never be repaid and could likely get purchased at a large discount in the future. It will be like the Mortgage debt securities in recent years.

    On the other side stocks would get crushed if a reasonable long term risk free rate of 7% came back. Hiding places for investors could get scarce at some point in the future.

    If that should happen I would remain an investor as I have always been an investor. The key would be to spread risks evenly across asset classes, maintain liquidity and low personal debt levels.
    Dec 29 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Piercing Its 'Opaque' Balance Sheet - Part II [View article]
    I have moved back into BAC at $5.50 sh.

    While BAC contains significant risk I believe it also has significant opportunity for gains that justify the risk.

    My thesis is that BAC will get a Mortgage settlement in the next 3 months. The result could be the spinoff of Merrill Lynch but BAC will not go bankrupt. At a minimum a very large profitable banking entity will be intact.

    Ken Lewis has done more damage to banking than any other CEO in banking history. I wonder if Angelo Mozillo invites him over for a drink and to work on their tans.
    Dec 29 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Boston Globe sits down to interview BofA's (BAC) Brian Moynihan, then blasts him by saying he hasn't met the bank's goals and his two-year tenure as CEO has been marked by slow progress. On Friday, Moynihan issued a letter to employees saying the lender has prepared for "whatever turbulent times may lie ahead."  [View news story]
    Moynahan inherited a BAC encumbered with a tremendous pile of Countrywide crap.

    That said his cluelessness over fees and his proclamation that BAC deserved the profits indicated that he is not a long term CEO. He is the best leader to negotiate legal resolutions. After the legal phase is over they need a CEO who doesnt piss off all the customers.
    Dec 25 09:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Be Optimistic About The Stock Market In The Coming Years [View article]
    Excellent Article!

    As a newer investor just out of college in 1980-82 things looked bleak. Autos, Steel and Mfg were closing plants big time and unemployment was 15%. The prevailing opinion was the US was in severe decline and the best days were in the rear view mirror.

    It can get to the point where an investor who dares to look up gets attacked by hundreds of others who can only look down. Each piece of positive news can be overwhelmed by 100 pieces of negative news.

    In the long term the markets have always moved from the lower left of a graph to the upper right.

    Lets suggest for the moment that politicians are partially competent and might take a few steps.

    1) In the US lets suggest that in an election year the large mortgage lenders get an incentive to settle the Mortgage fiasco with proceeds going to write down Mortgages.
    a) Repossessed housing gets sold off
    b) Homeowners get compensated
    c) Housing market turns around

    2) Instead of Europe, Japan and the US competing to be the most over indebted countries an agreement takes place to buy each others debt and stabilize the old G7 economies.

    World growth roars back and stocks rise dramatically.

    The cold hard truth is that economic activity doesnt just happen. For 200 years the world has politically removed barriers to trade and enhanced economic activity. The issues faced in the past were in many ways more difficult than those today.

    One thing is for sure, those who bailed from investing have tended to lose in every era over the past 200 years as well as those who over invest.
    Dec 21 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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