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jstratt

jstratt
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  • H-P +6%; EPS/cash flow improvements overshadow sales miss [View news story]
    I would add that I prefer buying for the long term but I take value where I find it.

    I do think as the past 5 year fiasco fades HPQ will assume a more normal higher valuation assuming the performance continues.
    May 25, 2014. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is The Perfect Stock For Anyone [View article]
    a voice of dissent...

    When a stock is the perfect stock for everyone it has reached its peak!
    May 25, 2014. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Big Media And The Pension Albatross [View article]
    Good article!

    It is interesting that DIS was used as the example when the effect is less than 1% of the market capitalization. It is almost irrelevant!

    It can be more of an investment consideration when declining companies with huge under fundings are involved. I usually check S&P reports if I think it is material.
    May 25, 2014. 12:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer Is A Buy Below $30 [View article]

    PFE is really trading as a bond equivalent.

    PFE overcame a 5.6% decline in revenue in 2013 by using its 16.7 billion in FCF to buy back 14.5 billion in stock and pay 6.5 billion in dividends.

    PFE has guided analysts to only a 3.90% drop in revenue in 2014 and a .02 EPS gain over the 2.22 in 2013 to 2.24.

    I would not buy PFE to hope the 3.5% dividend gain doesnt get washed away by share price reduction. Especially to have them propose moving out of the US to have foreign taxes reduce that dividend return.

    My investment interest could start at $25 a share.
    May 25, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting All Over Again [View article]
    This is an excellent article and I came back to add a little to the discussion. I was surprised at 2 things, the frugality issue comments and the retiring at 40.

    On frugality I would say that spending money doesnt make me happy. In fact I am happier saving money. That said I require a safe place to live and a reliable new car that I can drive for 10 years or 200000 miles. We all know people who make $30k and save religiously and people who make $300k and cant save a dime.

    To me saving and investing is about making priorities in life and choosing long term self sustainability over dependance on the government and soda/candy bars/boats/motorcycles... Tubs/timeshares etc..

    Second as for early retirement I have tried it for a couple of years and still saved half my income. I am just not ready to stop contributing. Lowering ones Golf handicap and taking vacations isnt a complete life for a healthy person.

    Finally it takes a lot of assets to retire given $1MM invested in a 10 yr Treas bond would yield you $25K annually in interest. I dont invest in 10 yr Treas but I take investment risk I might not want to take when I am 75 years old.
    May 24, 2014. 11:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Has An Ace In The Hole [View article]
    Great article David!

    You deserve a Seeking Alpha Gold Star.
    May 24, 2014. 01:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P +6%; EPS/cash flow improvements overshadow sales miss [View news story]
    How I view my HPQ investment?

    I have made some good profit and didnt buy HPQ as a long term holding. So I considered whether to get out. Here are the facts that persuade my opinion to hold or even buy additional HPQ.

    1) Cash Flow rules! The stock trades for about 5.5 times Operating cash flow and about 8 times FCF. In my mind the cash flow allows HPQ to consistently increase earnings per share.

    2) In HPQs industry everyone views it as victory or death like a video game. In HPQs case they have a wide variety of products and revenue is projected as roughly flat.

    3) HPQ now has competent leadership. I dont blame doubters as we have been treated to some of the most disgusting leadership in major corporate history.

    So I think a net zero debt company with huge cash flow can invest in its business to grow slightly, pay a 2% growing dividend and buy back 8% of shares for a long term double digit return. In short just the kind of historical returns they had for years before all of the foolishness.
    May 24, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) CEO Meg Whitman on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I just wanted to add that HPQ will be successful and around a long time. That said the days of 320,000 employees or more are over.

    I would be more concerned if HPQ wasnt cutting jobs because the whole boat could sink. The same logic applies to IBM and their 450000 employees.
    May 23, 2014. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment Is Shifting For Hewlett-Packard Investors [View article]
    As an investor I watch HPQ closely. It is no longer at stupid cheap levels but it is still cheap. So I was interested in determining whether to sell my HPQ coming into earnings.

    My conclusion is that HPQ continues to be in a better position today than it was 6 months ago. I see strong cash flow and a coherent transition to growth in earnings and in the future revenues. That is with an 8 forward PE so the downside seems limited.

    My personal thesis is that HPQ is worth at least 10x its current year 3.71 analyst estimate or $37.10. I could argue for a higher valuation but not a lower valuation.
    May 23, 2014. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • War Over The Horizon: Andreessen Vs. Buffett And The Battle For The Future Of Finance [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I view Buffett as an investor and Andreessen as a creator. The distinction is important.

    As an example Andreessen was one of the driving forces behind the collapse in HPQ after Mark Hurd was fired. Andreessen famously stated that cost cutting isnt important what is important is creating brand new billion dollar brands at HPQ. The wild acquisitions and destruction that ensued at HPQ was catastrophic.

    We need creators and we need managers of assets. Therefore I dont view this as a battle for the future of finance.
    May 23, 2014. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I spent an hour trying to understand SHLD without success. On one hand the biggest shareholders appear to be the savviest of investors while the news and reporting lead to an opposite conclusion.
    I would love to understand how the assets are carved up and how they have been dispursed.
    The share price most people would think must tumble and the end is near. But what has changed about that in the past 7 years?
    May 22, 2014. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Don't Ignore The Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Interesting article!

    After over a decade and great returns i had to cut IBM loose last year.

    - Horrible results from the time Rometty took over 2 years ago. Her recent statement that IBM has a rocky road ahead of it coming from the CEO shouldnt be ignored.

    - Based on recent IBM performance both the authors and the analyst consensus estimates listed above are subject to drastic downward revision. Projecting significant revenue growth is curious at best.

    - Unfortunately I have become suspicious about everything IBM says including 1) Smarter Planet 2) Watson 3) being a cloud company 4) bullish articles like this from people writing anonymously.

    My point is that IBM is cheap but it could get a lot cheaper and the trend is not your friend!
    May 22, 2014. 12:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Alstom Push Paris To Approve The General Electric Acquisition? [View article]
    My guess is that GE will be forced to create a Mfg HQ in Europe to get the deal completed. I have no special knowledge but it seems the drift is for job additions to force approval.
    May 21, 2014. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting All Over Again [View article]
    Good job!

    I hope you are preparing for your first downdraft in the markets. I dont mean that I am predicting that but markets do go up and they do go down.

    The downs will do a better job of testing your fortitude!
    May 20, 2014. 03:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eaton And 3M Are Better Investments Than General Electric [View article]
    Great article!

    While I agree I would say that if we had a short term market downdraft GE would probably fall less.

    As far growth long term I do not see GE growing as fast as 3m/Eaton with its current strategies.
    May 20, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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