Seeking Alpha

jstratt

jstratt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jstratt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Stolen Barclays' client data sold in "worst data breach ever" [View news story]
    Key detail to add

    The data was apparently stolen in 2012!
    Feb 9, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Intel's New CEO Have What It Takes? [View article]
    I must admit I am intrigued by an Ashraf article that isnt bullish.

    I still believe in INTC as an investment as early as mid 2014. I take INTC management at their word of 2014 being flat. My point all along has been that INTC is a gamble with no perceived advantage for the risk of buying now.

    INTC will likely come thru but it is best to wait for evidence than to jump the gun betting on an uncertain future timing. Finally I would likely lose interest before waiting for a 10nm scale to emerge.
    Feb 9, 2014. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stolen Barclays' client data sold in "worst data breach ever" [View news story]
    I dont think any entity is above a data breach.

    Perhaps the best example is Snowden. My guess is he was flipped by foreign espionage and spun out as a humanitarian. In the process some of the best protected secrets in the world were disclosed.

    I do suspect business prospects for PANW are excellent. The combination of premier network security skills with our current environment makes a $4 billion market cap company appear promising.
    Feb 9, 2014. 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 4G And Velocity IP The Major Contributors [View article]
    I own the least T that I have owned in decades. My hope is to see T restore revenue and profit growth but I am unconvinced.

    What I see over the past 5 years is a 35% increase in share price on a -0.28% 5 year decrease in earnings.

    The degree to which T can reduce the 20+ billion in annual infrastructure investment required just to maintain its current level of profitability is key

    One also must consider that LT debt increased by 6-8 billion this past year.

    T is a valuable asset but the question is at what price would you want to pay to own it. If you arent careful you may give up more than the dividend in share price declines.
    Feb 9, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    This investor was and is way to bullish. As one who has been fully invested in stocks for over a decade and prides himself on always being fully invested it is time to consider an allocation to shorter term Bonds or cash.

    We are near all time lows in interest rates in the history of our civilization with the Fed Funds rate at 0.07% as an example. On top of that we are now attempting a turn away that eventually must mean higher rates. At a very minimum an increase in volatility should periodically pause the progression of stocks.

    I do suspect that economic leaders will manage the larger picture as interest rates attempt a slow rise. Already however one can see a marginal change in the stock flow of funds. Pensions having benefited are overweight stocks and moving to historic allocations. The 3rd world learning that they may not always have 1st world economic advantages need money back at home. Investors drunk with consistent gains betting more than their proper long term allocation. All would suggest choppy turbulence.

    Perhaps a conclusion should be to protect some of the huge gains of the last 5 years. Being the matador in a bull fight isnt a bad analogy
    Feb 9, 2014. 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Bottoms Have 2 Elements: We're Still Missing One [View article]
    I would suggest investors not look at momentary overbought or oversold indicators. I consider myself a permabull for 20+ years.
    That said one must consider that the Fed Funds rate at 0.07% is near the low of the lifetime of our civilization. Further the market has turned a little bit and Fed support of low risk asset price increases is diminishing.
    Nothing is for sure but one should consider that with the lowest cost of money in the lifetime of our civilization, asset prices in most every area may be excessive! I am not saying sell everything and bury gold in the back yard. Just make some room for the thought that stocks and bonds could drop more than the past 5 year history would suggest.
    Feb 7, 2014. 12:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K-Cup + Coke = Huge Green Mountain Potential -- Today's Rise Likely Just The First Step [View article]
    Offering an opinion

    This is KO playing both defense and offense.

    1st think GMCR is successful in Coffee Tea and Soft drinks and KO participates

    2nd think GMCR is successful only in Coffee and Tea and KO participates

    3rd PEP has been eliminated from a competitive threat. SODA would be a competitive embarrassment and PEP will not make such a play. PEP is now even more likely to be broken up.
    Feb 6, 2014. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: One Of The Best Dividend Picks? [View article]
    Wait a minute! I want to make sure we are talking about the same company!

    The company with a symbol of T I had to sell because

    - Revenue is flat some years up 1.8% other years down 2%
    - Cash $3 bil and debt $75 bil and growing
    - declining cash flow year over year
    - requiring huge cash reinvestments to keep revenue from significant drop
    - unable to charge more because its customers are pressured

    In 2008 I loaded up on T from $20-$24. In a bear market T has a bottom and I would buy again in the upper $20s. As far as growth we have been through huge growth in phone usage and not much growth in T. Why all of a sudden now would the -1.32% past 5 year earnings growth rate change?
    Feb 6, 2014. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain +38.3% AH in response to Coca-Cola deal [View news story]
    KO is validating the GMCR home delivery model for the long term.

    Logically I dont see this model going beyond the Coffee and Tea drink segment. GMTN can benefit from KO marketing savvy.

    I just dont see Sodastream as a long term player (a la apple tablet vs other tablets). PEP should ignor this alternative.

    KO is buying insurance for its business as much as trying to grow Coke into drink pods. It will deliver what customers want but doesnt want to share its profits with GMCR.
    Feb 6, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: $30+ Price Target In Play... Here's Why [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting view on GE Industrial.

    I am bullish on GE but view the reason differently. Essentially GE has always been about operating one of the worlds largest banks disguised as an Industrial company.

    GE is only looking to sell a small portion of a 30% piece of GE Capital for now. It is the cash flow from selling part of GE capital and being able to buy back stock that will raise much of GE's EPS. I view like this

    reduce GE Cap >> credit rating inc from BBB+ to AA >> inc profits of remaining GE Cap

    reduced cap need >> stock buyback >> increased EPS

    Gone are the days when GE had a AAA credit rating and was viewed as an industrial company even though it was one of the worlds largest banks. Gone are the days of huge revenue growth from industrials.

    Feb 6, 2014. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Is Collapsing [View article]
    I find it interesting and wonder whether the TWTR or FB IPOs are any different from Wolf of Wall Street with the exception that they are much more sophisticated. The only hand wringing is that the investment bankers werent able to sell it at the highest price on open that it could ever achieve.

    First FB went public and allegedly promoted heavily then privately lowered its expectations to those chosen few. They seem not to have suffered from the deceit. FB went on to post some great results.

    TWTR and its investment bankers must have waited until they could see the trends were against them increasing in value any further due to slowing user growth and chosen to go public. Again handwringing that anyone buying the stock didnt immediately lose money.

    My point is why would a long term investor participate in IPOs? Arent they stacked against investors? Even short term investors must find it hard to make a buck.

    The only saving grace is that we need public companies for the future of having investment opportunities. Quietly stocks are becoming in short supply as companies get bought out and the remaining buy back shares.
    Feb 6, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is A Steal Even At $700 [View article]
    I would just add the perspective that AAPL turned to negative revenue growth. Supposedly in 2011 when Steve Jobs died many products were in the pipeline. I must have missed the introduction of all those new products!

    While I still use AAPL products, the difference between AAPL and its competitors has continually diminished. Given the above reality the valuation at present seems fair. While share buybacks and dividends could influence the value, one may find that what they receive becomes a return of capital versus a return on capital.
    Feb 5, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Know What To Think About General Electric [View article]
    GE is a good investment but will be a better investment when the spinoff of a portion of GE Capital takes place. Given the market it isnt 100% that will happen yet.

    With a spinoff in place GE can put its FCF to use buying back shares and I believe they have stated such. They would likely see a rating increase above BBB+ that would be accretive to earnings.

    A 3.5% yield on a safer stock is a solid investment alternative.
    Feb 4, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Poised To Disrupt Another Industry [View article]
    Investors have increasing risks to face as AAPL hasnt really introduced a new product since Jobs died.

    As for Icahn, he should be tweeting furiously as his investment is losing money. I tire of hearing about him trying to manipulate stock prices.
    Jan 30, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Retire At 30! [View article]
    This article is a nice fantasy!
    Jan 30, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,080 Comments
4,745 Likes