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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Fiscal Cliff: Let's Call Their Bluff [View article]
    This article is a little wacko!
    Dec 19, 2012. 06:45 PM | 45 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Thanks but I will let the author have all the profits from buying SVXY. He should be quite wealthy now having exploited the tops and bottoms in that chart.

    I wouldnt like myself if I lost money buying crap!
    May 29, 2014. 11:20 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why have no executives gone to jail for their roles in the financial crisis? Because risk-taking and stupidity aren't criminal, Roger Lowenstein writes. "To look for criminality as the supposed source of the crisis is to misread its origins badly."  [View news story]
    So the author suggests that the following are not criminal acts.

    1) Blatent Mortgage fraud including certifying to a court that all records were reviewed when in Millions of cases they were not.

    2) Ratings agencies selling fraudulent ratings for additional business

    3) Flash trading which allows special advantages including viewing your trade to trade ahead of you

    4) Picking the worst available Mortgage risk securities to package and sell to Pensions and institutions to bet heavily against and make huge profits

    I could list more but the point is the author of this post has become so desensitized to fraud that he doesnt even recognize it anymore. It wasnt just fraud it was outrageous in your face fraud meant to seriously cripple its victims.
    May 13, 2011. 07:27 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Exclusive Interview With Pershing Square's Bill Ackman [View article]
    Interesting article!

    Just want to point out I am not an Ackman fan. Some points

    1) Specializing in trying to destroy businesses for profit (Herbalife) is a horrible idea. I think he should be prosecuted. With more integrity in markets in past decades this wouldnt have been allowed.

    2) Operating with special advantages Ackman and others are able to manipulate prices leaving other investors with lower returns.

    3) As a cancer on free and fair markets grows so the way of life we have come to enjoy recedes. Public companies will transition to private companies as threats increase.

    Just a few offhand thoughts from a long time investor. I dont have any stake in HLF or any of Ackman's other positions that I know of.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:22 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric And Synchrony Financial After The IPO [View article]
    I will add some thoughts on GE and SYF.

    - GE is up and now is only down 4% ytd.
    - Still I think GE is finally turning a corner with revenue now rising
    - SYF should be teed up to hit a HR

    I must remind myself this is GE and they have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    PS GE's recent rise has more to do with the drop in 10 year Treasury rates
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:51 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    The author sold his assets and now must write articles about how much he hates the bull market.

    The good news is he may have invented a cure for insomnia!
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:55 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Paulson Says to Buy Dividend Stocks and Houses, Sell Bonds [View article]
    I had an interest in Paulsen's outlook before I heard how he and GS put the screw job on other clients in the housing trade.

    Based on his history it might be worth checking to see who is unloading the banking stocks he is promoting.
    Sep 30, 2010. 07:18 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Should an Investor Believe: The Natural Gas Industry or The New York Times? [View article]
    I think the debate is a good one to have. I dont think shale gas is fraudulent. At the same time how much gas can be produced at what price and with how many chemical injections are needed is not yet clear.

    I largely believe the producers data as far as it goes. At the same time the NY Times is politically aligned against Oil.

    However a healthy scepticism over assertions that we have limitless resources at ultra cheap prices is deserved. Whatever the motives I like the questions and look forward to finding more detailed answers.
    Jun 29, 2011. 10:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid [View article]
    I will look at the authors logic but before looking at it I have to disagree that IBM is a dangerous stock. Reading the latest analyst reports and being a long term holder I find significant upside to IBM.

    Some things I like about IBM include
    1) Software and services steady recurring revenues
    2) strong financial position
    3) large generation of free cash flow
    4) High Return on Equity
    5) IBM has weathered the worst of this downturn and continued to grow earnings.

    On the other hand it isnt hard to believe that Caterpillar and Marriott can have some hard shareholder times.

    I read SA because articles like this challenge my beliefs and forces me to consider other perspectives. thanks!
    Apr 4, 2009. 10:44 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom [View article]
    I appreciate the authors perspective. We can debate about whether the bottom is in but I would encourage investors to think long.

    1) It may not be the best time to buy stocks but it is a good time. Where was the fear at Dow 14000+ and where is the opportunistic aggression of a Dow 7200.

    2) I could be wrong but I see 4% Mortgages creating some RE purchases and increasing disposable income through Mortgage refinancings.

    3) Credit cards dont alarm me as the first 15% loss is probably a loss of interest and fees rather than capital.

    4) World leaders are acting more or less in concert and are actively engaged. When that happens things ususally improve.

    5) Business activity and earnings from a macro sense appear to be bottoming. I dont see fewer homes being sold or fewer cars being sold in the future.

    Finally I have to add that I have never found a time not to invest. Whatever you earn save some for yourself and invest it. It always is a great time to invest in the best and worst of market scenarios.
    Mar 22, 2009. 08:52 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The JPMorgan Apologists Of CNBC [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article! CNBC and especially Maria worship Jamie Dimon. It is pathetic how they report anything related to him and it undermines their credibility.

    What if JPM has been using its London office to dodge regulators and make huge commodity and derivative bets that are a risk to taxpayers?

    I have read for years about huge commodity plays in metals by JPM. At one point it was speculated that they must be working on behalf of the US Govt because the trades were so massive.

    Perhaps a bank should make loans and do a little banking instead of gouging customers to fund risky commodity plays, flash trading and derivative trading.

    Maybe someday derivatives can be accounted for so that financial statements are more than a work of fiction. In JPMs case that would apparently be more than $1 Trillion.


    Sep 29, 2013. 07:21 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Damage Control Team Arrives to Save Geithner [View article]
    Great commentary!

    I believe voters are going to veto incumbents in the next election, How else to deal with the lies, deceit and ouright rape of the average citizen. Democrats have alot to lose but so do Republicans.

    Geitner is an outright fraud as was Paulsen. I can understand mistakes but I cant tolerate fraud and deceit by any person and their party.
    Jan 7, 2010. 06:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth [View article]
    Thanks to the author for an attempt at a balanced view. Since he openly admits he thinks GE is great it wasnt very balanced with Bad and Ugly essentially Alstom. I want to add a little to balance the impartiality

    Earnings 2004 - $1.59 10 years later 2013 - $1.47
    Revenues 2004 - $152 bil 10 years later 2013 - $146 bil
    Dividend 2004 - $0.82 10 years later 2013 - $0.79
    Credit Rating 2004 - AAA 10 years later 2013 - BBB+
    Sh Price High 2004 - $37.75 10 years later 2013 - $28.09

    Why is a true balanced view important? because if you paid attention you might have sold GE in 2007 at $40 a share and bought it back below $10 in 2009 after the government bailout. As an investor in GE I try to ask hard questions because what you get from GE is

    My mom makes underwater fans powered by the Moon!
    She can do amazing things!
    My Mom makes friends with Trees (as trees with arms and legs dance)
    My Mom works at GE

    One other point is that over the years I have seen no correlation between the backlog and performance.

    I do own GE and I am neutral on the stock as I believe GE leadership has been slothy and should have cleaned up the mess from 2007 by now.
    Jun 1, 2014. 11:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crude Oil Bottom: Where To Look For Clues [View article]
    How I am playing Oil

    1) Oil itself is substantially below long term fair value

    2) Oil stocks however are currently well above current fair value. Take COP as near or at end of 2014 the stock was down 1% for the year and Oil down 46%. I sold shares.

    3) Oil has a long history of dropping farther faster and staying down longer than anyone believes is possible. My thesis is we are in the disbelief stage.

    4) Happened to meet a man running an Oil and Mineral Trust discussing he is still getting $80 for Oil but next month it drops to $50. Sounds like next month might be when reasonable capital cutback reality sets in based on 1 data point.

    5) Oil companies have proudly stated they dont hedge Oil prices. Sounds massively long to me.

    I will likely layer investments into quality Oil stocks starting after earnings are announced with proper questions about future exploration activity and cash flow bring the reality of share prices to the price of even $70 Oil.

    So far no questions have been answered about whether Oil companies will issue stock, issue debt, massively cutback exploration, sell off assets or slash dividends. I suspect all of the above.
    Jan 12, 2015. 11:32 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Provides Some Sage Words On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    It has been an interesting year with GILD as it opened 2014 priced at $75 a share.

    If at that time you were to know that GILD would have the greatest drug launch with the highest margins in history with Sovaldi/Harvoni you would have paid extraordinary amounts to get GILD.

    If you were told that at the end of the year GILD would have effectively doubled revenue and quadrupled profits and had to calculate a share price where would you have set the target?

    If you had known that Harvoni/Sovaldi at year end would be found to have a very high cure rate, few side effects, easy administration and would be viewed as distinctly superior to the competition in every way, what would you have paid?

    If you had known that every product line performed extremely well and the pipeline advanced significantly during the year what would you have paid?

    So as we enter 2015, I think GILD achieved everything it could reasonably have been expected to achieve and has a bright future. I will assume GILD closes the year near $96 and has a 28% gain for the year. Further that 2014 expected EPS comes in at $7.95 and GILD is priced at 12 PE on 2014 results.

    My holdings increased significantly this past week as GILD is a central piece of my expected 2015 plan. It isnt possible for GILD to have a better performance year than 2014 but what is possible or likely is

    - all product lines continue to grow at a double digit pace
    - pipeline excitement for a Hep B or NASH cure
    - success in Oncology launching a new area of competence
    - significant share buybacks
    - widespread acceptance that the world wants Hep C cured in 20-30 years
    - other competitive cures for Hep C are unable to match Harvoni/Sovaldi

    I wish everyone as good a year as GILD had in 2014 and that you get better compensated for it.
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:32 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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