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  • Gilead Sciences: 92% Earnings Growth And 88% Free Cash Flow Growth [View article]
    My GILD shares opened up the year at $94 and at $106.5 and a dividend have provided a 14% return. I do agree that all of the positive developments make it seem the return should be higher.

    - Harvoni brand established in 2015 is huge
    - Competition has been crushed
    - TAF is very promising as it is introduced
    - Oncology looks more exciting with 2016 events coming
    - huge dividend initiated
    - HBV development moving along
    - Truvada seems like it should be selling more and more
    - Pan Genotypic results strong
    - US HCV market size GILD thinks is understated, test suggest larger population

    I see lots of reasons to be optimistic for the future. In the end I will suggest GILD is driven by HCV and today we have reason to believe the market is larger than expected X Pricing better than expected X market share larger than expected vs the thinking at the beginning of 2015.
    Nov 24, 2015. 03:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene Stock Forecast For 2016 [View article]
    I will add a few thoughts on CELG.

    The latest quarter results were marginal but no company has done more to build a pipeline for the future. CELG has the history, leadership and pipeline to continue its impressive performance for many years.

    Few companies have CELG type growth. Very few have delivered a roadmap on expected performance such as CELG $21 billion revenue and $13 sh EPS by 2020. So now the market is doubting CELG and valuing it about 15% less on a PE basis than say last year at this time.

    As I write $112.72/ $4.84 (2015 EPS est) = 23.3 PE for 20% long term growth. I acknowledge the risk and like the reward potential.
    Nov 24, 2015. 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflationary Pressures Post-QE 3 Make Bonds Interesting Again For Income And Potential Capital Gains [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    DrX does investors a great service in considering an allocation to bonds since many investors are solely in stocks.

    In a time of perceived higher risk I am less likely to venture off into a skewed portfolio structure. Starting with a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, RE and Cash, one might decide to raise the cash level by 10% or increase the weighting in bonds, etc.

    The article seems to suggest a much more skewed approach to a portfolio than I suspect DrX actually employs. Most investors would not be comfortable with an investment portfolio of LT Treasuries, AAPL, GILD and a few biotech plays.

    For my investing I have been finding it difficult to maintain a somewhat balanced portfolio while taking advantage of market opportunities. On the stock side I have largely avoided financials and commodities while emphasizing growth. A little extra cash has helped simultaneously reduce risk.
    Nov 24, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer-Allergan: One High P/E Stock Buys An Even Higher P/E Stock; Gilead Remains The Most Attractive Large Cap Pharma Stock [View instapost]

    Perhaps it is time to begin thinking of GILD on a longer term basis. I like almost everything about the actual progress at GILD over the past 2 years.

    Little value has been created by PFE, MRK, LLY, GSK ... over the past decade. PFE is about 25% overvalued in my view and GILD is about 25% undervalued.

    However if GILD jumped by 25% in a short time its shareholders would sell 95% of the shares. GILD needs more investors and fewer speculators.
    Nov 23, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Long Chesapeake Energy... Should You Be Long Too? [View article]
    CHK is for high risk high expected return investors. Things could get worse and CHK could fail which the bonds should be telling you.

    My guess is that CHK will be bought out in the next year. It has great productive low cost assets. Those companies with a long term perspective will be unable to replicate the value of CHK assets at twice the price. That is why sophisticated investors like Icahn are involved.

    It wont be comfortable, it wont be easy, expect further write downs of assets but if you can hold on it will likely be a very profitable investment. I prefer to invest in stages and stage 1 has now arrived.

    A 5 year share price range might be something like $0 - $35. However CHK is unlikely to remain independent that long in my opinion.
    Nov 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: More Reasons To Buy [View article]
    Nice buy!
    Nov 20, 2015. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: More Reasons To Buy [View article]
    It isnt every day that I get a chance to buy a company with a $33 loss per share.

    CHK is risky and the price movement is telling you that. At this point the real question isnt valuation, it is survival.

    I do believe CHK will survive. If you believe that CHK has $5.7 billion in liquidity you should also bet on survival. A surviving CHK can reverse much of that $33 loss in the future.
    Nov 20, 2015. 09:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotechs Go Low-Fat: Relevance To Amgen, Regeneron, The Medicines Company And Isis [View article]
    Thanks for a very thought provoking article!

    I would add the thought that AMGN and REGN are economically rational and will attempt to maximize the PCSK9 revenue. If future products are seen as impacting that revenue, then they will lower the price of Repatha/Praluent to capture more revenue more quickly.

    Perhaps in summer 2016 AMGN will be able to calculate a QALY with Repatha data and adjust the price accordingly. Then it may be off to the races. For my investing I will let other concepts become products at a phase 3 level before investing.

    Thanks, another great article exposed me to several new ideas.
    Nov 19, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Chesapeake Energy Provides Opportunity To Investors [View article]
    I am impressed with the value in CHK.

    For almost a year I have waited watching Oil and Gas prices to crash. It is unlikely that we have seen the bottom and I am a fan of waiting for blowout lows. At the same time CHK has dropped 75% of its value and sits at about 26% of its estimated value.

    I buy in stages and I am ready to buy my first stage investment in CHK. Some impressive items I note about CHK are...

    - CHK is planning for lower Oil/Gas prices
    - CHK has excellent liquidity with $5+ billion avail
    - CHK started balancing the ship ahead of the rest of the industry
    - CHK has great assets with excellent operational results
    - CHK has protected itself with hedging strategies
    - I like the leadership direction in this tough period

    I think CHK can survive a crash and provide excellent long term returns. It has taken a very slow path for Oil and Gas to drop to the current levels and it will likely take a long path to recovery.
    Nov 17, 2015. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVS Health - Collateral Damage Due To The Healthcare Selloff [View article]

    I like many of the strategic moves of CVS and I am a shareholder.

    At the same time when I pass a CVS store which often has a Walgreens located nearby, the Walgreens is always busier.

    Part of the danger with CVS is it has embarked down a road of trying to sell what they want to sell. Successful businesses traditionally have provided what consumers want rather than trying to steer customers to what they want to sell.

    For now the strategic moves overcome poor retail strategy. Should other units start to suffer from an indifference to the customer CVS may not be the investment we think it is.
    Nov 17, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]
    Wonderful comment!

    Nov 17, 2015. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]
    I dont want you to add to many years to me as I graduated in 1979 from college and I am 58.
    Nov 17, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Takeaway From The AASLD Liver Meeting No One Is Talking About: Merck's Nuc Is A Long-Term Threat [View article]
    Pharma Doc

    Great to see an article from you on this important topic.

    As you say I am used to GILD holding all the Aces. Perhaps it is time to take MRK more seriously. I had been considering MRK but havent pulled the trigger.

    Still very long GILD. Also I would note that last year at this time GILD was supposed to have competition from ABBV, MRK and BMY in 2016. All have diminished and Harvoni just passing its 1st birthday couldnt be stronger.

    GILD clearly hasnt gotten a bump from AASLD as I thought it might.
    Nov 17, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]

    You may notice I was asking questions and not making statements. I note that

    1) DrX wrote an article noting that ABBV paid $20 billion for 50% of Imbruvica

    2) The results may or may not be able to be indirectly compared to Imbruvica. I was just asking an informed opinion.

    3) GILD does have numerous drugs utilizing 4 different pathways which I suspect could advance future care if successful and combined.

    Perhaps GILD oncology pipeline should be worth a share of the market value such as $10 billion, but I dont know. So I asked some questions.
    Nov 17, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strengthened Case For 'Risk Off': Liking Extra Cash And Some Other 'Value' Assets [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your perspective and ideas.

    I certainly see lots of reasons for concern in investing. Yet I have always maintained an optimistic view and continue to do so today.

    Things looked bad when I first invested in the stock market during college. I think the S&P was about 88 vs the current 2050. Early on I realized that what I thought would happen was often quite different than what actually did happen.

    I remain a fan of quality assets including GILD. In fact I would ask DrX if the Zydelig study that was unblinded today was a comparison against Imbruvica? Dont I remember an article where Imbruvica was valued at $40 billion? Wasnt Zydelig put in place of Imbruvica in a 3 drug combo of current best practice that was unblinded because the results were too successful to ignor?
    Nov 16, 2015. 04:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment