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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Fiscal Cliff: Let's Call Their Bluff [View article]
    This article is a little wacko!
    Dec 19, 2012. 06:45 PM | 45 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Thanks but I will let the author have all the profits from buying SVXY. He should be quite wealthy now having exploited the tops and bottoms in that chart.

    I wouldnt like myself if I lost money buying crap!
    May 29, 2014. 11:20 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why have no executives gone to jail for their roles in the financial crisis? Because risk-taking and stupidity aren't criminal, Roger Lowenstein writes. "To look for criminality as the supposed source of the crisis is to misread its origins badly."  [View news story]
    So the author suggests that the following are not criminal acts.

    1) Blatent Mortgage fraud including certifying to a court that all records were reviewed when in Millions of cases they were not.

    2) Ratings agencies selling fraudulent ratings for additional business

    3) Flash trading which allows special advantages including viewing your trade to trade ahead of you

    4) Picking the worst available Mortgage risk securities to package and sell to Pensions and institutions to bet heavily against and make huge profits

    I could list more but the point is the author of this post has become so desensitized to fraud that he doesnt even recognize it anymore. It wasnt just fraud it was outrageous in your face fraud meant to seriously cripple its victims.
    May 13, 2011. 07:27 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Exclusive Interview With Pershing Square's Bill Ackman [View article]
    Interesting article!

    Just want to point out I am not an Ackman fan. Some points

    1) Specializing in trying to destroy businesses for profit (Herbalife) is a horrible idea. I think he should be prosecuted. With more integrity in markets in past decades this wouldnt have been allowed.

    2) Operating with special advantages Ackman and others are able to manipulate prices leaving other investors with lower returns.

    3) As a cancer on free and fair markets grows so the way of life we have come to enjoy recedes. Public companies will transition to private companies as threats increase.

    Just a few offhand thoughts from a long time investor. I dont have any stake in HLF or any of Ackman's other positions that I know of.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:22 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric And Synchrony Financial After The IPO [View article]
    I will add some thoughts on GE and SYF.

    - GE is up and now is only down 4% ytd.
    - Still I think GE is finally turning a corner with revenue now rising
    - SYF should be teed up to hit a HR

    I must remind myself this is GE and they have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    PS GE's recent rise has more to do with the drop in 10 year Treasury rates
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:51 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    The author sold his assets and now must write articles about how much he hates the bull market.

    The good news is he may have invented a cure for insomnia!
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:55 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Paulson Says to Buy Dividend Stocks and Houses, Sell Bonds [View article]
    I had an interest in Paulsen's outlook before I heard how he and GS put the screw job on other clients in the housing trade.

    Based on his history it might be worth checking to see who is unloading the banking stocks he is promoting.
    Sep 30, 2010. 07:18 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Gilead Sciences Is Great News For Investors [View article]
    Thanks for a great article!

    GILD is significantly undervalued by many metrics, is well managed and has the potential for further explosive growth in my opinion. So I bought more shares in Dec after the ABBV news and made GILD one of my fully invested 2015 investment positions.

    Over the years as an investor at times I have found other great opportunities and after a gain I would begin trading. If you believe GILD is a great investment thesis then just buy an amount that makes sense and let it perform. Trying to trade in and out of a great investment will only damage your returns.

    Part of what I really like about GILD outside of the numbers is the way the company innovates and sort of surrounds and conquers markets. In HIV they have several drugs attacking that market with more on the way. In Liver Diseases they innovate and stay ahead of the competition. Further they seem to be moving from a Hep C company to a Hep C/Hep B/NASH company which I now call Liver diseases. The market opportunity with Hep B even bigger than Hep C as an example is substantial.

    Looking at the oncology pipeline I noted there are 4 pathways to attack the tumors they are working on. Can you guess how many of those pathways GILD is developing drugs on? If I have to give you the answer, you dont quite understand but it is all 4 paths.

    So if you think GILD is a good long term investment just buy some shares and hold them long term. Dont be distracted by the noise. So far nobody with that strategy has any complaints!

    Feb 10, 2015. 11:10 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    I thought the GILD results were better than the market would suggest but I am an owner and bullish. Some of my key takeaways

    GILD HCV patient slide for the US 4MM Total HCV patients >> 1.6MM Diagnosed >> 140k Treated. So a huge long term market just in the US with 3.5% treatment. Worldwide perhaps 1% treatment.

    Significant HCV challenges have been refuted including ABBV and just today Merck's treatment is pushed back. I see no reason to be any more concerned about GILD Hep C revenues than any other pharma product.

    Since the beginning of 2014 GILD shares are up 30%, Revenue has more than doubled and profits more than quadrupled and operating margins up 22%.

    I liked that GILD gave guidance and note that revenue growth and Gross Margins of 87%-90% suggest a good year.

    Purchases today get a 1.8% dividend along with a great growing company at a very cheap price. I bought more shares to my full allocation of GILD back after ABBV made their announcement in December.

    Stocks do crazy things but I am comfortable with GILD in my long term holdings. My guess is that the market will eventually value GILD closer to what I think it is worth.

    On a product basis GILD may have had the greatest year in the history of biotech in 2014. Perhaps we shouldnt be surprised if everyone cant immediately recognize that.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:33 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Should an Investor Believe: The Natural Gas Industry or The New York Times? [View article]
    I think the debate is a good one to have. I dont think shale gas is fraudulent. At the same time how much gas can be produced at what price and with how many chemical injections are needed is not yet clear.

    I largely believe the producers data as far as it goes. At the same time the NY Times is politically aligned against Oil.

    However a healthy scepticism over assertions that we have limitless resources at ultra cheap prices is deserved. Whatever the motives I like the questions and look forward to finding more detailed answers.
    Jun 29, 2011. 10:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid [View article]
    I will look at the authors logic but before looking at it I have to disagree that IBM is a dangerous stock. Reading the latest analyst reports and being a long term holder I find significant upside to IBM.

    Some things I like about IBM include
    1) Software and services steady recurring revenues
    2) strong financial position
    3) large generation of free cash flow
    4) High Return on Equity
    5) IBM has weathered the worst of this downturn and continued to grow earnings.

    On the other hand it isnt hard to believe that Caterpillar and Marriott can have some hard shareholder times.

    I read SA because articles like this challenge my beliefs and forces me to consider other perspectives. thanks!
    Apr 4, 2009. 10:44 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom [View article]
    I appreciate the authors perspective. We can debate about whether the bottom is in but I would encourage investors to think long.

    1) It may not be the best time to buy stocks but it is a good time. Where was the fear at Dow 14000+ and where is the opportunistic aggression of a Dow 7200.

    2) I could be wrong but I see 4% Mortgages creating some RE purchases and increasing disposable income through Mortgage refinancings.

    3) Credit cards dont alarm me as the first 15% loss is probably a loss of interest and fees rather than capital.

    4) World leaders are acting more or less in concert and are actively engaged. When that happens things ususally improve.

    5) Business activity and earnings from a macro sense appear to be bottoming. I dont see fewer homes being sold or fewer cars being sold in the future.

    Finally I have to add that I have never found a time not to invest. Whatever you earn save some for yourself and invest it. It always is a great time to invest in the best and worst of market scenarios.
    Mar 22, 2009. 08:52 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The JPMorgan Apologists Of CNBC [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article! CNBC and especially Maria worship Jamie Dimon. It is pathetic how they report anything related to him and it undermines their credibility.

    What if JPM has been using its London office to dodge regulators and make huge commodity and derivative bets that are a risk to taxpayers?

    I have read for years about huge commodity plays in metals by JPM. At one point it was speculated that they must be working on behalf of the US Govt because the trades were so massive.

    Perhaps a bank should make loans and do a little banking instead of gouging customers to fund risky commodity plays, flash trading and derivative trading.

    Maybe someday derivatives can be accounted for so that financial statements are more than a work of fiction. In JPMs case that would apparently be more than $1 Trillion.


    Sep 29, 2013. 07:21 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Damage Control Team Arrives to Save Geithner [View article]
    Great commentary!

    I believe voters are going to veto incumbents in the next election, How else to deal with the lies, deceit and ouright rape of the average citizen. Democrats have alot to lose but so do Republicans.

    Geitner is an outright fraud as was Paulsen. I can understand mistakes but I cant tolerate fraud and deceit by any person and their party.
    Jan 7, 2010. 06:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    I would add a few thoughts to this article.

    The market size being referred to is the US market and that also appears to be overly conservative suggesting no further growth while GILD is in the process of making new agreements.

    Each week the Trx and Nrx trends higher. Then internationally the market is growing rapidly and agreements overall are moving faster than expected. It would not surprise me iif the 2015 Hep C market is $20 billion with $15 billion US and $5 billion around the world.

    Then to quote ABBV is not exactly an unbiased source. Perhaps 27% penetration for an inferior regimen in Viekira but I doubt it and would suggest 10% might be a closer actual.

    On to the stock buyback the $15 billion is over 5 years. So I wouldnt suggest investors consider that as all happening in 2015 as the article insinuates.

    Those who bet the farm dont have a farm to bet. At the same time an investment in GILD is a very good risk to take. Anything can happen but most people do not think a 10-12 forward PE values GILD prospects appropriately. Most investors also think GILD will continue to find a way to grow as it has since the turn of the century.

    For those who cant understand the excitement about GILD just keep in mind that

    - last year GILD more than doubled Revenue and more than quadrupled profits

    - if you bought GILD at the Nasdaq market 5000+ peak in 2000 you are still up about 4600% and 360% over the past 3 years so GILD has richly rewarded its believers

    - NASH is as big as Hep C by many estimates and GILD has a strong chance of taking a large share to that market. Similar for Hep B.
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:52 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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