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jstratt

jstratt
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  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    David and Eli

    I want to thank the both of you for creating such an excellent product.

    Lots of truly talented people utilize SA daily.

    John
    Jul 2, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron's Growth Governed By 3 Key Prospects [View article]
    Good article Brandon!

    I sold my REGN recently to focus on some other lower risk biotech's. It is at a 45 PE on 2015 EPS estimates. Yet I am having regrets!

    The bull case I think focuses on Praluent. With PCSK9 having the potential to explode. The label will be interesting and probably restricted. However consider

    1) The size of the market is huge
    2) If you need to prove the validity of lower cholesterol why have people already spent $100+ billion lowering it?
    3) Surveys of cardiologists suggest many would prescribe off label immediately
    4) Those in the most needed group are probably getting a life saver and could move fast

    My guess is the approval of Praluent in the coming weeks will cause a rise in shares. After that ?

    So in my mind its a 45 PE buy in vs promising blockbuster Praluent decision!
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Biotech Digest: Gilead Files TAF NDA, Pristiq Goes Generic, Biocept Surges 7% [View article]
    Some thoughts on TAF & GILD

    GILD execs indicated that TAF will improve profitability over GILD's current HIV drugs. With bone and renal improvements it should compete well against alternatives.

    With respect to the pipeline outside of TAF nothing seems very immediate. Both NASH and Hep B are years away. Oncology has some near term potential. However really if you are investing in GILD it is all about HCV.

    Any drug with 10% of GILDs HCV drug revenues would be a blockbuster. It is also likely to be only 50% as profitable.

    That is why GILD needs to buy another company and get some non HCV revenue.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Stock Is A Better Investment, Gilead Sciences Or Its Provider Cambrex? [View article]
    Interesting article!

    It is really not surprising that other companies have performed better than GILD. The IBB as an example has risen 31% more than GILD in the last year (42% vs 32%).

    What is important to keep in mind is that GILD has had about the best year that any company can expect from what ever point a view you want to take. Double revenue, quadruple earnings, deliver a cure for a major disease...

    Now that I have heard of Cambrex I will do my best to forget it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences- A Rare Undervalued Company In A Frothy Biotech Market [View article]
    Somedata

    I respect DoctoRx but long term investors recognize that an industry increasing by 500% in 5 years is probably in a bubble.

    Double digit growth in drug spending long term is unlikely. At the same time I am a long term investor with holdings in GILD, AMGN, CELG and BIIB among others.

    GILD has been a special case with strong growth and a low valuation in my mind.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ace builds more scale with Chubb purchase [View news story]
    How should a US investor and citizen view 50 major corporations a year leaving the US?
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene Is Fairly Valued But Looks To Be Making Lower Highs [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article!

    After the JUNO deal I looked a little closer at my CELG holdings. The key is whether you believe in the 25%-30% annual growth expected in the next 5 years and managements ability to deliver on that expectation.

    JUNO was an example of CELG locking up some of the most promising drug technology for a reasonable price. CELG is the biotech partner of choice and has dozens of these deals in huge revenue potential areas along with its own drug pipeline.

    I continue accumulating CELG but dont feel the need to buy everything just now. While I suspect a better price is possible, looking forward CELG continues to look like a huge long term winner.

    Things to consider

    - beautiful high growth rate every year for 10 straight years shows no sign of ending
    - For current valuation I use expected 2015 EPS and a 25 PE
    - CELG has richly rewarded long term shareholders and delaying purchase looking for a great price has been a losing strategy.
    - The next 10 years will be good but cannot match the past 10 year growth to $118.22 from an adjusted price 10 yrs ago of $10.45 ($11.31 for ea $1 invested)

    Everything considered a consistent accumulation plan of shares every quarter might be a tremendous part of a long term wealth plan.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences- A Rare Undervalued Company In A Frothy Biotech Market [View article]
    Excellent article!

    The GILD portion was the best comprehensive view I have seen.

    The only point I would make regarding GILD is that the potential is for a blockbuster quarter and rest of 2015 as world sales kick in.

    I also suspect much of biotech is overvalued. That said I wouldnt short biotech.
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: The Juno Therapeutics Deal Is Worth The Premium [View article]
    Excellent article!

    This deal is an example of why I hold on to CELG for the long term.

    JUNO has great prospects and CELG has a way of aligning itself with new drug technologies that have great prospects. It should be obvious that this was a brilliant move and who are the people saying they paid too much?

    It is possible that JUNO will flop and CELG would lose most of $1 bil invested. It is also possible that the JUNO products could generate $50-$100 billion in revenue or more. The risk of a total loss is both low and negligible to the future of CELG if it happened. If on the other hand JUNO is a big success the impact could be huge and every other biotech would gladly have made the same deal.

    I should add that essentially CELG made an agreement to buy JUNO if they are successful and it becomes hugely profitable to do so. JUNO will no longer trade at a merger valuation. CELG can pick successful programs to participate in if they want, or buy more of the company at a discount.
    Jul 1, 2015. 07:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno Therapeutics: The Future Of CAR-T Innovation [View article]
    Perhaps a super agreement. If JUNO is successful CELG gets to purchase more at below market pricing as OPTIONS are included. Note the statement from the parties about the agreement below.

    "A pre-specified premium during this 10-year collaboration, Celgene will have the OPTION to purchase additional shares. The premium under the purchase is predetermined and will be based upon the market price at that time."

    The FIRST OPTION occurs between years four and five and will allow Celgene to own as much 19.9% of Juno's then outstanding stock. The SECOND OPTION occurs between years 9 and 10, and allows for the purchase of up to 30% of Juno's then outstanding stock.
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno Therapeutics: The Future Of CAR-T Innovation [View article]
    I could be wrong but the announcement does talk about the ability to purchase up to 30% and other pieces that suggest options could be involved as an example.

    So believe what you want.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno Therapeutics: The Future Of CAR-T Innovation [View article]
    Downtown

    We dont know all of the details but we know some important things.

    - CELG for $150MM up front will get a significant piece of the most promising Cancer drugs.

    - JUNO is no longer a competitive threat

    - I doubt they are paying double the current price as they are probably getting super shares of some type. However worst case they are paying 500MM+ for access to CAR-T

    - Seems like a sharp move to me. It is right in CELG's line of expertise.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno up 53% after hours on 10-year Celgene deal [View news story]
    >>Celgene has the option of being Juno's commercialization partner for oncology and cell therapy autoimmune product candidates, including its CD19- and CD22-directed CAR-T product candidates, exclusive of B-Cell Maturation Antigen.<<

    I read that different than you. However my point remains that CELG locked up a piece of some of the most promising technology around for $150MM upfront. They did something similar with BLUE.

    CELG looks like a big winner locking up huge future revenue potential for a small relative price. To buy JUNO would not have been as good an investment.

    thanks for commenting
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juno up 53% after hours on 10-year Celgene deal [View news story]
    I am just going to make a few points.

    1) CELG is probably getting super shares or shares with long term options added or they would not be paying a $93 price.

    2) CELG is getting a steal by buying into a potential revolutionary product line which compliments their current business

    3) Juno is getting help commercializing their discoveries but probably are no longer a merger candidate. They essentially sold much of their profit potential possibly to lock in current management and prevent a takeover. JUNO may be worth less now, not more?

    4) Very smart move on CELG part. Why pay $7-8 bil for 100% of JUNO when you can buy a piece for $1 bil and lock up a potential piece of $50-$100 billion in franchise jewels, if it works out.

    5) JUNO's technology is validated but they only own probably 70% of it now.

    That is how I see it from the available information.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I agree but I am not a timer of markets.

    Sticking to healthcare I find good value in GILD/AMGN/CELG/CVS/EW. On the other hand expecting long term healthcare growth at current double digit rates is not a good bet.

    I also am avoiding the small cap shares where valuations are based on M&A. Cancer shows signs of bubble valuations as an estimated 1000 drugs from about 300 companies are all expecting to charge $500k to extend life by a few months.

    On a wider scale when debt begins to lose value stocks will likely follow. Greece isnt a big worry but I suspect bad debts are once again building closer to home. We just arent hearing about it and it may take a long while for it to appear.
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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