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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Fiscal Cliff: Let's Call Their Bluff [View article]
    This article is a little wacko!
    Dec 19 06:45 PM | 45 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why have no executives gone to jail for their roles in the financial crisis? Because risk-taking and stupidity aren't criminal, Roger Lowenstein writes. "To look for criminality as the supposed source of the crisis is to misread its origins badly."  [View news story]
    So the author suggests that the following are not criminal acts.

    1) Blatent Mortgage fraud including certifying to a court that all records were reviewed when in Millions of cases they were not.

    2) Ratings agencies selling fraudulent ratings for additional business

    3) Flash trading which allows special advantages including viewing your trade to trade ahead of you

    4) Picking the worst available Mortgage risk securities to package and sell to Pensions and institutions to bet heavily against and make huge profits

    I could list more but the point is the author of this post has become so desensitized to fraud that he doesnt even recognize it anymore. It wasnt just fraud it was outrageous in your face fraud meant to seriously cripple its victims.
    May 13 07:27 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Paulson Says to Buy Dividend Stocks and Houses, Sell Bonds [View article]
    I had an interest in Paulsen's outlook before I heard how he and GS put the screw job on other clients in the housing trade.

    Based on his history it might be worth checking to see who is unloading the banking stocks he is promoting.
    Sep 30 07:18 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Should an Investor Believe: The Natural Gas Industry or The New York Times? [View article]
    I think the debate is a good one to have. I dont think shale gas is fraudulent. At the same time how much gas can be produced at what price and with how many chemical injections are needed is not yet clear.

    I largely believe the producers data as far as it goes. At the same time the NY Times is politically aligned against Oil.

    However a healthy scepticism over assertions that we have limitless resources at ultra cheap prices is deserved. Whatever the motives I like the questions and look forward to finding more detailed answers.
    Jun 29 10:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid [View article]
    I will look at the authors logic but before looking at it I have to disagree that IBM is a dangerous stock. Reading the latest analyst reports and being a long term holder I find significant upside to IBM.

    Some things I like about IBM include
    1) Software and services steady recurring revenues
    2) strong financial position
    3) large generation of free cash flow
    4) High Return on Equity
    5) IBM has weathered the worst of this downturn and continued to grow earnings.

    On the other hand it isnt hard to believe that Caterpillar and Marriott can have some hard shareholder times.

    I read SA because articles like this challenge my beliefs and forces me to consider other perspectives. thanks!
    Apr 4 10:44 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom [View article]
    I appreciate the authors perspective. We can debate about whether the bottom is in but I would encourage investors to think long.

    1) It may not be the best time to buy stocks but it is a good time. Where was the fear at Dow 14000+ and where is the opportunistic aggression of a Dow 7200.

    2) I could be wrong but I see 4% Mortgages creating some RE purchases and increasing disposable income through Mortgage refinancings.

    3) Credit cards dont alarm me as the first 15% loss is probably a loss of interest and fees rather than capital.

    4) World leaders are acting more or less in concert and are actively engaged. When that happens things ususally improve.

    5) Business activity and earnings from a macro sense appear to be bottoming. I dont see fewer homes being sold or fewer cars being sold in the future.

    Finally I have to add that I have never found a time not to invest. Whatever you earn save some for yourself and invest it. It always is a great time to invest in the best and worst of market scenarios.
    Mar 22 08:52 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The JPMorgan Apologists Of CNBC [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article! CNBC and especially Maria worship Jamie Dimon. It is pathetic how they report anything related to him and it undermines their credibility.

    What if JPM has been using its London office to dodge regulators and make huge commodity and derivative bets that are a risk to taxpayers?

    I have read for years about huge commodity plays in metals by JPM. At one point it was speculated that they must be working on behalf of the US Govt because the trades were so massive.

    Perhaps a bank should make loans and do a little banking instead of gouging customers to fund risky commodity plays, flash trading and derivative trading.

    Maybe someday derivatives can be accounted for so that financial statements are more than a work of fiction. In JPMs case that would apparently be more than $1 Trillion.


    Sep 29 07:21 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Damage Control Team Arrives to Save Geithner [View article]
    Great commentary!

    I believe voters are going to veto incumbents in the next election, How else to deal with the lies, deceit and ouright rape of the average citizen. Democrats have alot to lose but so do Republicans.

    Geitner is an outright fraud as was Paulsen. I can understand mistakes but I cant tolerate fraud and deceit by any person and their party.
    Jan 7 06:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: The Greatest Dividend Stock [View article]
    Excellent article!

    As a long term holder I would add a couple of details. PG is projecting lower profit in 2011. As such I would not look for the dividend to grow at 10%+ this year in spite of a 45% payout.

    PG seemed to stop investing in their brands after the recession and has started back which is increasing their costs. Input costs have also been increasing squeezing margins.

    PG is a favorite company over many years and normally provides growth and dividends with a minimum of volatility. With a lack of growth the PE is not as attractive today.
    I would rate PG a hold and would be a buyer at 62 or less until I see them turn the corner and begin increasing profits. By the way except for the flash crash the stock traded in a range with a low of approximately $59 in 2010
    Jan 28 12:33 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Managing Disaster [View article]
    Well said!

    If Jobs is fading away, he has been one of the greatest corporate leaders of the century. He has truly changed the world multiple times. He is a national treasure.

    Here's hoping he can make another return.
    Jan 20 09:53 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elizabeth Warren: The End of the Middle Class [View article]
    So sad!

    Most people that enter this world will never know freedom. We live in a small window of time where freedom is prevalent.

    Unfortunately people choose to squander. The result is they lived in a time where they had the opportunity to choose freedom and chose poverty.

    Let them sell their farms and businesses. Let them borrow heavily. Let them raise children without a college education. Let them buy huge homes and vehicles and motorcycles and boats and RVs and spend to their hearts content. It is a confession of ignorance!

    Unlike most in history they had an opportunity. They just didnt have the moxi. Fortunately people still have a chance. They can choose to move ahead. They will just have to choose to do so.

    Perhaps 20% dont have the ability, 20% can get by, 20% have an opportunity but squander it, 30% will live a reasonable existence, 5% will live well but still worry and 5% will live well.

    The best news is that the end is not near. It will come soon enough! China has not evolved to choose freedom. India has a cast system which attacks those who try to rise above their class, the islamic world does not believe in freedom.

    The result is the free world reigns when it is strong. However it likely squanders its inheritance as it softens and loses its edge. It has returned historically but perhaps after 1000 years. Lessons of the crusades!

    Perhaps we are more evolved! When I see squander, drugs, school dropouts and lack of interest I begin to wonder!

    My advise is to save at least 10% of your salary or wage. You will need it. It may sound outrageous but saving 20% is not out of the question. Either one will force choices over pure squander. If I am right you will one day be happy you chose to do so.
    Dec 4 12:50 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2 [View article]
    Based on your advise I think I will invest in a tombstone manufacturing company.

    It sounds like nothing good can ever happen again. It is a good thing the 1st half of my life has been so wonderful.
    Jul 13 07:32 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen's Impossible Task [View article]
    One should remember that the US economy has been the envy of the world since the Fed was created. The average person should recognize the value over its history of stabilizing interest rates, employment and inflation. People from the 3rd world looking in are probably better able to understand the positive impact on peoples lives.

    Without a Fed we wouldnt be debating whether a problem will be faced down the road. We would likely have lost 10 million more jobs in 2008 as an example.

    I just want to note that anyone can have an opinion on the Fed without any special skill or training and most of those offering such have little of either.
    Jan 30 10:38 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2013 Year In Review [View article]
    I have to admit my recollection of the authors writing was gloom and doomish or at best 50% in and 50% out.

    When one breaks their arm patting themself on the back some semblance of reality is necessary.
    Dec 31 12:48 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With IBM Down, Buy And Sleep Sound Like Buffett [View article]
    As an investor I am in mourning over IBM. You see I have believed in IBM since the early days of Lou Gerstner. I have watched it grow dramatically and trusted and believed in IBM through thick and thin.

    About 18 months ago after a perfect record IBM results began to be poor. Earlier this year I was shocked at a huge revenue drop in a quarterly report. I reduced my holdings of IBM by about 33% but felt it was undervalued.

    What is clear is that the management is no longer in place to operate IBM effectively. IBM stock price will recover somewhat before year end and I will move on. I am no longer able to understand what is going at IBM and listening closely to management think it is likely because they dont understand either.

    IBM is a special collection of highly profitable businesses with a leadership team including the Board of Directors that is lost. I really dont care about Buffett s investment in IBM either.
    Oct 18 05:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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