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jstratt

jstratt
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  • Gilead Will Keep Hepatitis C Dominance In Its Grip With Recent Trial Results [View article]
    I would say that many investors feel the risk is higher than they want given

    - The Liver conf research is a large amount of data with little consensus
    - Analysts are useless because they have such wide variances in opinion
    - Biotech has risen rapidly and is now in choppy water

    I bought some additional shares today at $102.60 based on the US TRX growth during 1Q and World growth kicking in.
    Apr 27, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Will Keep Hepatitis C Dominance In Its Grip With Recent Trial Results [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    An investor cant help but note the large number of competitors and the shortened treatment times. When I assess the threats one by one I note

    ABBV - is already in the market so a known quantity
    Achillion - stock is tanking and at $1 bil valuation apparently not a direct threat
    BMY - has not convinced me they are a threat
    MRK - MRK would appear to be a possible threat in mid 2016

    Meanwhile treatment duration reduction progress seems to be slowing and less conclusive than many had expected.

    While all this is playing out GILD shows signs of explosive growth in Hep C revenue above $4 bil and less discounting than expected at least according to Bernstein analyst quoted by Barron's.
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Biogen Dip [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    I am letting BIIB settle before deciding if I should add to my position.

    On the buy side BIIB is one of the great research companies in genetics and would appear to have great long term opportunity in a growing long term field.

    Regarding valuation I tend to use PE's based on 2015 expectations and note a 23 PE. Is that a fair valuation given prospects for the next 5-10 years? Perhaps! I guess I am going to have to listen to the conference call.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast's Consolation Prize: It Becomes Disney [View article]
    Enjoyed the article and comparison.

    DIS is on fire and I expect a good earnings report based on several factors including the success of the new college football playoffs which were a huge success in January. Also the lineup of movies looks attractive for the future.

    DIS has a high valuation now to match high expectations. I dont intend to sell however.

    CMCSK is more fairly valued and is well managed. But lets not kid ourselves, CMCSK is no DIS!
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is JPMorgan Accumulating The Biggest Stockpile Of Physical Silver In History? [View article]
    JPM has in the past accumulated huge quantities of Gold and Silver. However 55MM oz of silver is minimal at $861MM valuation. Further JPM may be servicing customers demand rather than making any investment at all.

    If the author isnt a precious metals salesman he should apply. Weaving together meaningless silver data with economic threats and a silly outlawing of cash threat.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lanny's Recent Purchase - Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    Lots of investors could benefit from JNJ as a unique combination of consistent growth and value. Very few companies can grow and maintain dividend growth over a long period.

    JNJ at a $100 price will yield 3% going forward. Its payout is reasonable currently at 50% and it is in a growing industry that supports long term growth. It has a healthy mix of cash to debt and the stock is very stable.

    If I could hold just one stock for the next 20 years it would be JNJ.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon's First Quarter Results: What To Like & Dislike [View article]
    I will add a few thoughts thinking perhaps one or two readers might have an open mind.

    - buying the VOD stake meant eliminating huge spending on FIOS. More debt isnt a good option.

    - $110 billion debt is a big deal even in the high debt telecom industry. While it was a good risk to take, VZ needs to build up the liquidity to handle it.

    - I thought it was a good quarter for VZ but if the competition forces prices lower it will come out of profits and cash flow

    The upshot is in my mind both T and VZ have more risk to share price and dividend than I thought 6 months ago. T because of the additional risk now to the DTV merger and VZ because the competition may force it to drop prices.

    I do like VZ and the growth and leadership strategy. But if TMUS and GOOGL for instance teamed up to compete consequences would arise. It might not take a GOOGL entry either as TMUS and Sprint are pressing hard.

    I own a small amount of T and more of VZ.
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    I have little specific knowledge of Afrezza or MNKD.

    My investment was made solely on the product approval and the idea that this has to be a better way than injections for at least some diabetics.

    Some additional uninformed thoughts

    - The Chmn founder and namesake retired which isnt a ringing endorsement
    - Sanofi may not be the best partner
    - The debt doesnt bother me, companies can get debt renewed today
    - If it takes off, the market is huge and growing
    - Lots of big money, smart money and dumb money is ignoring MNKD
    - In the end if an approved product has merit, it will succeed
    - I wouldnt bet my lunch money on it

    Good Luck fellow investors!
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:22 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck's HCV combo shows cure rates of 60 - 100% in three genotypes [View news story]
    Vince

    Thanks for alerting me to the ABBV Q&A. I think I will stick with the rough estimate of a $20 bil Hep C market for my investment purposes.

    Also I acknowledge some huge estimates by others but I think I want to temper my expectations to $2.50 which is still a strong beat. The 2Q forecast will be interesting. I am also expecting 3Q to be significantly higher than last year given the warehousing of patients that preceded the introduction of Harvoni.

    In 2016 which is what this article references GILD appears to have significant advantages. I expect GILD to maintain a strong leadership position with the best product on the market. Given my view that the world market comprises 20MM US $ equivalent patients I am less concerned about 2017-2020.

    GILD in my mind has everything within its grasp to control the future including buying other biotech companies with promising research to diversify the pipeline, share buybacks and opportunities in NASH, HBV, Oncology, Cardiovascular and Inflammation.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck's HCV combo shows cure rates of 60 - 100% in three genotypes [View news story]
    Regarding GILD Revenue

    It is time to start getting serious about GILD results next week so I am starting with Revenue and will add a few thoughts.

    - GILD 2014 Revenue $24.89 bil
    - GILD analyst estimates 2015 $28.46 bil
    - 4Q Rev x 4 ie 4Q run rate $29.26 bil
    - HCV script growth est 9k in JAN growing to 11.8k in MAR, 31% increase
    - ABBV stated still expecting $3 bil run rate end of year, states published data underestimates market significantly. HCV Mkt est $3 bil/.15 mkt share=$20 bil total HCV market
    - HIV market steady growth
    - World market kicking in
    - new products incl TAF
    - est 20MM US $ Hep C patients worldwide with 200k treated

    Feel free to add to or shoot holes in my revenue thoughts. I am finding it hard to be bearish on GILD revenue for 1Q or for the year.
    Apr 24, 2015. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Beat: Amgen And Gilead News [View article]
    Interesting article!

    I also saw AMGN up big after a strong beat on earnings in after hours, and then nothing the next day. This is the first explanation I have seen.

    Both GILD and AMGN are what I would call blue chip biotechs. They offer entry into a growing business at a reasonable price. One can invest in a growing company in a growing industry for the long term.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons AT&T Is The Better Dividend Investment Than Verizon [View article]
    Buffalo

    I would reply that the latest full year cash flow figures I provided are much more accurate than your quarterly data.

    FCF 3.72 - DIV 9.55 = -5.83 bil

    and not surprisingly T borrowed an additional $5.62 billion in 2014.

    The Inc Stmt shows consistently declining NI. The BS shows increasing debt.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Discussion Of Amgen's Q1 Results, With Updates On Its Pipeline [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article!

    AMGN is trading at 17.74 X 2015 earnings estimates. I dont find it to be a great bargain or as having the sizzling hot potential of the hottest biotech stocks.

    At the same time it has beaten the S&P500 by 100% over the past 10 years. I also fondly remember in 2008 when stocks were crashing, my AMGN shares held steady in the low $50s.

    AMGN has treated me better than many of my other stocks as it is up 48% over the last 52 weeks. Essentially I agree with DrX but thought a longer term view could be helpful.

    It does help to be in a growing industry.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Buying Vertex? What's The Use? [View article]
    Excellent article!

    Thanks for illustrating the pipeline potential. One of the best attributes of GILD is the continual innovation of its products. As a long term shareholder I think GILD will make acquisitions that compliment and extend their current emphasis.

    HIV and Liver diseases are progressing well in the pipeline. Oncology, Cardiovascular and Respiratory/Inflammatory are current areas in the GILD pipeline that could benefit from the additional investment.

    Buying a $5-10 billion company with promise as well as partnering with others to fund promising research would make more sense. GILD is much to smart to spend its capital making a quick buy of something where it doesnt add value in the process.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons AT&T Is The Better Dividend Investment Than Verizon [View article]
    Buffalo

    I doubt I could prove to you that the Sun rises each morning. From the T Stmt of Cash Flows for 2014 and Yahoo Finance.

    NI $6.22 bil
    DIV $9.55 bil
    FCF $3.72 bil
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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