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  • The 'Golden Age Of Biotechnology'? - After The Storm, An Update. [View article]
    Enjoyed reading a bearish outlook!

    I do subscribe to the belief that drug pricing increases will not match the recent past in coming years.

    The point that health care is overweighted has some merit.

    At the same time much of the article I dont get. For instance

    Comparing GILD to a housing bust when financing went from allowing anyone to buy anything to forcing 100% cash to buy a home? Perhaps if all insurance including medicare was cut off and pharmacies had a cash only window.

    If you take away labels like biotech and call them businesses the fundamentals of GILD, AMGN and CELG growth and profits would suggest they are highly undervalued.

    So I think I will focus on earnings and businesses. If future prospects should dim I will take that into account. For this quarters earnings and the next year prospects I very much like holding the shares of GILD, AMGN and CELG.
    Oct 9, 2015. 12:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Secular Change Or Just Temporary Sentiment Shift? [View article]
    I think earnings will separate the winners from the losers in the market. I really like the earnings prospects of GILD, AMGN and CELG.

    Good luck and dont obsess over the market noise!
    Oct 8, 2015. 05:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advocacy And Technology Move Stem Cell Research Forward: Bernie Siegel Of The Genetics Policy Institute [View article]
    The Stem cell business has huge potential. This article sounds like little has happened.

    OSIR has some amazing products. By chance I know of a child whose finger got cut off and was being grown back with stem cells. Crushed shoulders I have heard are now able to be grown back into health along with other body parts.

    We need a Stem Cell ETF!
    Oct 8, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Express Scripts Just Give A 'Buy' Recommendation On Amgen And Regeneron? [View article]
    I add the following for investor consideration.

    2Q $2.57 EPS (prior estimate was $2.43)
    1Q $2.48 EPS (prior estimate was $2.10)
    4Q $2.16 EPS (prior estimate was $2.05)
    3Q $2.30 EPS (prior estimate was $2.11)

    Each time the EPS came in much higher than estimates by .11c-.38c each quarter. The coming quarter already has the script counters suggesting higher sales than expected.

    So dont be surprised if AMGN delivers $10.00 EPS for 2015 and is trading at a 14.x PE on 2015 results. Seems like rationally a fair price would be north of $180 and several analysts I have noticed have $186 price target area.

    As I write that is a 25%+ gain from current trading levels.
    Oct 8, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Next Logical Acquisition, Part 1: NASH And Galmed [View article]
    Excellent article!

    So John Milligan stated a month ago that GILD was waiting for the data to mature for an acquisition. He believes that the data does not yet conclusively support whatever company(s) he wants to buy.

    Judging from GILD statements and I have listened to every public statement I agree HBV and NASH are GILDs priorities. The capital raise likely suggests that when GILD finds its cornerstone drug acquisition, they intend to win the bidding.

    One other interesting point stated was the BOD was asking GILD leadership to keep an open mind toward any alternatives and not focus in a narrow manner.
    Oct 8, 2015. 09:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Express Scripts Just Give A 'Buy' Recommendation On Amgen And Regeneron? [View article]
    Thanks once again for the valuable insight!

    PCSK9 has been an interesting microcosm of biotech with huge expectations that melted away and now are reemerging. Just in the past few months we have gone from CVS projecting $100 bil PCSK9 sales potential, to approval of the drugs and minimal sales projections.

    What happens in 8 months assuming proof of outcomes data comes in as expected?

    Could Repatha get an approval to treat a huge quantity of patients that would not be immediately available for Praluent?
    Oct 7, 2015. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: What's The Worst That Could Happen? [View article]
    I will offer a few thoughts as a long term shareholder who got out of IBM a few years back but follows it.

    - IBM isnt expensive but it isnt growing. Why buy into what could be a huge currency loss quarter ahead of earnings?

    - The CEO has been disasterous such as a year ago when she went into earnings and stated orders just dropped off a cliff and we dont know what is happening but we assume it is us and we withdraw all guidance until January.

    - On the other side IBM is a great cash flow generator. For all the horrible recent past they are building for the future.

    - Last quarter I predicted EPS to the penny by recognizing that IBM at the beginning of a quarter knocks down EPS expectations for the next quarter then manages expectations during the quarter to beat by 2 cents. So I will predict $3.36 for 3Q and 4Q expectations will be knocked back to $5.48. Headlines read IBM beats!

    - If IBM was valued at a 20%+ discount to a long term EV estimate like S&P Cap IQ it would be a reasonable risk.

    - For this investor trust is a factor such as can I believe what they say? Unfortunately I dont have that trust level in IBM leadership. Too much of what they say seems to be what they want shareholders to think and is not overly accurate.

    I do think it is possible IBM could stabilize revenue in 2016. One should never fail to recognize IBM generates $17.5 bil ttm OCF and trades at 8.35 X OCF.
    Oct 7, 2015. 12:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Pressures = Subdued L-T Equity Returns [View article]
    An interesting collection of studies. Not sure I would put much money on the conclusions however.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Global Q3 Slaughterhouse [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    I am expecting earnings to cause a final short term hit to the market. Especially in Oil, but good earnings should help healthcare and biotech.

    Interestingly enough many stocks have gotten to or are at fair value.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A Biotech-Bonds Barbell Strategy: Focus On Several Junior Biotech Stocks [View article]
    PS The Trans Pacific Partnership deal appears to be hitting biotech today.
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A Biotech-Bonds Barbell Strategy: Focus On Several Junior Biotech Stocks [View article]
    Enjoyed the article!

    Since 1982 all anyone ever had to do was invest in 30 yr Treasuries to get a good return. However as Alan Greenspan said on CNBC a few weeks back, reviewing data all the way back to the 1600s, interest rates have never been as low as they are in our current period.

    I remain interested in seeing the market react to earnings in GILD, AMGN and CELG.
    Oct 6, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Meltdown: Bargains To Target On This Decline [View article]
    A risk sensitive investor could do well with CELG, GILD, and AMGN. All 3 look to have excellent earnings in 3Q. I note health care earnings this year have met or beat targets 93% of the time.

    Each company offers double digit growth prospects with share prices that are 20%+ below their highs. At this moment, reliable growth is not properly appreciated in the market.
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On At General Electric? [View article]
    I will offer a few thoughts...

    How do you become friends with a Hedge fund Mgr? I think the only way is to help him make money.

    My view is that Immelt needs Peltz and Peltz likely now knows what earnings GE will report on Oct 16. My guess is also that the new plan for the future GE delivers in December is now known and will be more bullish do to asset sales success.

    I could be wrong but to have a Hedge fund come out with a presentation overtly supporting Jeff Immelt and GE is strange and may also be designed to influence regulators and the BOD.

    Finally this all looks very scripted and not like a normal arms length transaction. I could be reading it wrong but somehow Immelt has survived a long long time.
    Oct 5, 2015. 03:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE sells corporate aircraft financing portfolio, comments on Peltz's investment [View news story]
    My guess is Peltz thinks he knows something about GE. I think I will wait until I see what happens in the Oil patch and possibly until after GE earnings on Oct 16 to consider GE.
    Oct 5, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE: Bringing Good Dividends To Your Portfolio [View article]
    Yes and they cut it merely days after Jeff Immelt stated it was safe in a TV interview.
    Oct 3, 2015. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment