jstratt

Consumer Credit Falls in Q2

Some thoughts on this excellent information

1) Overall some significant drops are indicated in consumer credit which is a good thing. You cant complain about consumer spending not being high enough and consumers being to deep in debt at the same time.

This is good news if the drop is due to consumers paying down their debt. It is possible however that it is just consumers failing to pay debt and defaulting. That may also be a way of reducing debt.

Can a Stock Market Meltdown Happen from Here?

I am a confirmed optimist!

At the same time I am selling stocks to a core level. I do not necessarily subscribe to this authors analysis. Still the market is much more dangerous than would be suggested by a few weeks of gains.

The people with the best information and track record all seem to agree that this will last longer and cause more damage. If you question that, reference the most recent statements of Bernanke, IMF, Mike Mayo, Will Buiter, Noriel Roubini and Meredith Whitney.

I have never heard of Seibel and acknowledge his opinion giving it all the consideration it deserves... if any

Expecting the 'Better than Expected' from GE, Google and JPMorgan

Where have all the investors gone?

Article after article suggesting every ill in the world and the economy. Each one suggests that stocks are horrendously overvalued. Lots of chart talk about a point or two.

It is a great time to invest! I am harvesting my financial holdings after watching them double since early March and retreating to HON at 8 PE and PG at an 11 PE among others.

Many quality stocks are near 50% of their peak. It is a great time to invest. If you keep trying to nickel and dime the market you will end up with just that nickels and dimes. The time to short the market was before 6 months of frozen freefall.

There is nothing wrong with trading and my trading profits in financials have helped immensely. At the same time a little investing in some quality stocks that have the potential to make huge gains may be more than worthwhile.

The end of the world only comes once and your odds arent very good. Make some good investments and watch them grow.

Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime

I dont buy all of Meredith Whitney's arguments on credit cards. She is very talented and called many things right in 2008.

I agree that credit card losses will occur. However the losses up to 15% will be fees and charges rather than loss of capital. Losses will sound bad because they already booked the profits.

The biggest loser is the post office which is losing 2 billion credit card applications being mailed.

The poor people who have been fleeced by credit card companies will be better off without credit cards. Unfortunately I think they will still be able to get them.

Loan sharks like real sharks are going to be amazing survivors.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

Kudos to Quinn!

I enjoyed your thoughts and share many of them. Both political parties seem to think it is their elected right to spend heavily. They seem to think that anyone who donates a dollar to their campaign has the right to receive thousand fold returns on that investment.

I enjoyed your passion and willingness to state what you really mean.

Credit Card Cancer

Thank you for an excellent perspective Peter.

You were one of the first to point out the contradiction between the government encouraging consumer spending in a consumer debt crisis.

The credit card companies are likely doing what is right. That is pulling back those who are hopelessly overextended already. For those who want to borrow money at huge rates of interest with fee structures that would make a loan shark blush... go for it!

Bank and Broker Default Risk

Thank you Bespoke!

Today became the day I reentered the financial sector buying stocks of JPM, USB and BK all of which are on the world top 50 strongest bank list.

I held off on WFC even though they were the highest rated if I remember correctly. The reason I held off is that Bespoke and other financial data seems to question WFCs strength.

In fall 2007 I concluded we were entering a financial crisis and liquidated all financial holdings such as C, AIG, CFC and BAC. It may not be the bottom but it does seem like it is an attractive time for the strong to seperate from the weak financial players.