Outstanding article! Understanding telecom long term can be very valuable. Across the telcom landscape a variety of companies that have growth potential and reasonable valuations are out there.
What I see on one hand is results that so far continue to grow for cable even in a poor economy. The cable industry is an industry people love to hate and writing positive articles on cable has not been fashionable for many years. Still year in and year out they continue to grow top line revenue.
As an example in 2000 cable companies were offering analog video and earning $30 monthly from these base customers. Then came High Speed Internet and Digital cable and the average customer was paying $60 a month. Today telephone has been added and a larger customer base exists of customers paying $110 per month.
The result is that cable companies are efficient at selling programming for content providers. To suggest that content providers are going to give away their product to undercut the huge revenue they get from cable companies seems unreasonable. On top of that their customers typically have to be cable customers first.
Netflix's Broadband Shift Ripens Worry for Cable [View article]
Go NFLX!
That said just remember the customer will go to a cable or telco to get internet sevice first. Those companies will pick off customers with video offers.
I see little chance of NFLX replacing cable or telcos. However there is room for all to be fantastically successful. The loser is more likely local TV stations as the WSJ suggested in an article today.
Based on your article if you arent on NFLX payroll you should be.
Comcast Q2: Earnings Beat, Cash Flow Above Expectations [View article]
A 5% increase in revenue may mean a much higher penetration rate as it comes in a period with declining households.
A cable company isnt going to win many awards but Comcast has the size, products and leadership to do very very well for shareholders.
4 Key Telecom Trends [View article]
Cable TV's Decline: Two Views [View article]
As an example in 2000 cable companies were offering analog video and earning $30 monthly from these base customers. Then came High Speed Internet and Digital cable and the average customer was paying $60 a month. Today telephone has been added and a larger customer base exists of customers paying $110 per month.
The result is that cable companies are efficient at selling programming for content providers. To suggest that content providers are going to give away their product to undercut the huge revenue they get from cable companies seems unreasonable. On top of that their customers typically have to be cable customers first.
Netflix's Broadband Shift Ripens Worry for Cable [View article]
That said just remember the customer will go to a cable or telco to get internet sevice first. Those companies will pick off customers with video offers.
I see little chance of NFLX replacing cable or telcos. However there is room for all to be fantastically successful. The loser is more likely local TV stations as the WSJ suggested in an article today.
Based on your article if you arent on NFLX payroll you should be.