jstratt

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

I believe banking issues generally come in waves as governments acknowledge a crisis and deal with it. Then they create a period of healing before taking further action such as mass closings of banks again. If that isnt done the risk of continuous bad news in banking creates runs on banks. So I believe we have additional banking issues to deal with and they always look bad when they are happening.

On the other hand I wasnt overly impressed by your arguments. The remaining banks in trouble are minor little pieces of the financial system compared to the major banks. The FDIC may need a loan but so what? They can join the already long list of others.

The TALF program appears to be part of a strategy to deflect Commercial RE loans. Further the REITs have been recapitalized to be able to do some lifting of Comm RE. That said Comm RE is one severe area yet to come.

In short we seem to have made a lot of progress in this financial crisis in the past 2 years. We may have trouble remembering that when we face issues in year 3. By year 4 we may be seeing more positives but also focusing on how the long term changes impact our future from there.