VP of Common Sense

59 Comments

    • Federal Reserve Buys AIG [view article]
      I'm with Capricorn, at least we bought something. The insurance side of the business throws off $6-20 billion a year. Sell off everything else to pay back as much as possible of the initial investment, spin off and fold the CDO side of the business as a total loss, and IPO the insurance business. With any luck WE might even break even... Well, maybe not, but here's to optimism! Sep 16 11:12 PM
    • In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second [view article]
      Didn't CSIQ already release Q2 earnings, or pre-release them? Estimated earnings were $33-35M etc., should be around $0.77/share... Aug 03 11:04 PM
    • Expect Continued Canadian Solar Financing This Year [view article]
      Unless I am reading things incorrectly, their 'purchase obligations' are merely raw material contracts. Since they are in a very raw material intensive business this seems like a normal practice.
      Jul 19 10:45 AM
    • Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings [view article]
      Steve,

      You were pumping FSLR a month ago at $300/share. Lay off the insults.       Jun 07 08:23 AM
    • How Bad Is the Oil Shock of 2008? [view article]
      Purely for entertainment:

      We do have a functional energy policy... USE OIL!       Jun 07 08:18 AM
    • Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings [view article]
      I think the technical discussion is great, but mostly rehashing of old news.

      Here's my thesis:

      I think we can all agree that poli prices are going down. Maybe they don't reach parity with thin film, but within 20% is close enough due to installation costs. Once that occurs in about two years we'll be splitting hairs about which technology better.

      At that point it will simply come down to regular stock analysis, and that's why the TSL's and CSIQ's of the market with their relatively low P/E's look good to me.

      ASTI seems interesting, but their production line (which isn't running) is very small at 1.5MW (unless they mean 1.5MW per day, which if they do, someone please tell me!).

      Finally, I believe stock investing is primarily forward looking. Since I think that thin film's cost advantage will be greater today than at any day in the future, the opportunity for big gains from investing in thin film has passed.       Jun 06 04:28 PM
    • Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine? [view article]
      West1: I *think* the yuan is pegged off the dollar, so even though they do business in europe they still suffer the dollar/euro exchange issues. Jun 06 04:03 PM
    • How Bad Is the Oil Shock of 2008? [view article]
      I find all the social commentary amusing, but irrelevent. Bakken oil shale, Canadian oil sands, ANWR, drilling 5 miles off Biscayne Bay, my evil imperialist capitalist views on the world etc. etc. etc. We get it, there is more oil, and high prices will bring some or all of this online over time. The problem there is the market is not elastic, the only people that can bring 2MM bpd on tomorrow are in the midde east. Further, those people have said they like prices right where they are now.

      The USA is a functional supply and demand marketplace, yet the price of oil continues to rise, thus we are not the culprit. I think it's great that US demand is clearly decreasing, but again, look at price. We are not driving the market.

      Nearly half the world's population purchases oil in NON supply and demand marketplaces where the price is fixed or modified by the local governments (see: India, China, most of the Middle East, Malaysia, Venezuala, etc.)

      Because all of those governments are pumping money into oil subsidies at close to a billion dollars a day, speculators are irrelevent. Said governments actions have affect of driving up demand, which is what speculators depend on. As I've said before: (speculators : supply and demand) as (amplifier : guitar).

      So, keep track of news regarding subsidy modifications. In the last week Malaysia and India have both moved towards lifiting their subsidies, once China blinks the bubble will burst.       Jun 06 11:10 AM
    • PNC Financial Services: Facing the Heat [view article]
      I thought about the ETFC comparison some more and realized that I had oversimplifed. Evaluated as a bank ETFC looks terrible, but they have the brokerage business as well. It's two companies in one, and the brokerage is almost as good as the bank side is bad. May 18 09:04 AM
    • PNC Financial Services: Facing the Heat [view article]
      I was browsing their balance sheets and noticed a high amount of intangible assets ($9.55B) relative to total asset value ($14.5B). I can only guess that intagible assets are not very useful as collateral. Either way the -intangible leverage is about 23:1.

      With NPL's at 0.77%, up moderately from 0.64 in 2007Q4, and an EPS of $1.09 I don't see a problem here. Frankly they would would like a long play to me if the share price wasn't so high.

      What scared me more that that was doing the same comparison for ETFC. If you back out intangibles their leverage is about 154:1.

      I bring this up because BSC and TMA were leveraged around 33:1 irrelevent of intangibles when the proverbial shit hit the fan.       May 17 03:04 PM
    • E*Trade Primed for a Breakout [view article]
      I'm just plain long, but I can see a play to buy at 4.15+ and sell at <4.00 (or the reverse) over and over lately. May 16 09:58 PM
    • The Home Start Numbers Are Not a Positive [view article]
      Reggie,

      I think you hammered all the way around the nail without hitting it. If you back out the 36% growth in multi units, single family new permits and starts were down again. Further, the growth in multi-units makes perfect sense given your initial thesis (3rd sentence of article).

      Thus, the median home price will likely continue to fall. *sigh*       May 16 04:24 PM
    • Why GE's Selling Its Appliance Division [view article]
      Anything that makes GE leaner I'm all for! If only they would spin off their energy business... Oh wait, no one would want the rest of the parts. May 16 04:12 PM
    • Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow [view article]
      Here's where I split with Jack on the TSL/CSIQ debate: CSIQ appears to be adding production capacity at a much faster rate than TSL. I think TSL will continue to be profitable, but in general growth tends to generate much higher stock prices. As such I've added to my CSIQ position while maintaining a smaller position in TSL. May 16 01:33 PM
    • Buffett Should Have Picked Owens Corning Over USG [view article]
      USG has *only* been bankrupt twice. Clearly they are a model company. May 15 06:23 PM
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