VP of Common Sense

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61 Comments

    • Fri May 16th 13:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow
      Here's where I split with Jack on the TSL/CSIQ debate: CSIQ appears to be adding production capacity at a much faster rate than TSL. I think TSL will continue to be profitable, but in general growth tends to generate much higher stock prices. As such I've added to my CSIQ position while maintaining a smaller position in TSL.
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    • Thu May 15th 18:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buffett Should Have Picked Owens Corning Over USG
      USG has *only* been bankrupt twice. Clearly they are a model company.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 21:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Verso Paper IPO: Not to Be Glossed Over
      www.reuters.com/articl...

      HA HA HA
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 15:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Verso Paper IPO: Not to Be Glossed Over
      Verso IPO = Long Put
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 15:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SunPower Buy Opportunity?
      I look at it this way, CSIQ's earnings per share were higher than FSLR, and the share price is 79% lower. So I think there is some headroom, also blowout earnings have a way of getting a company noticed.

      Yes, FSLR is speculative and overpriced, but even after today CSIQ's market cap will be below $1.5B. I agree with you that going forward FSLR's competitive advantage erodes, and CSIQ is out-earning them already.

      So, I'm not adding to my position, but I see significant potential (4x?) further growth. However, I think that when the oil bubble pops, the solar stocks are probably going with it.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SunPower Buy Opportunity?
      CSIQ Q1 Earnings: I'm giddy! Of course that means the stock price will probably go down...
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 21:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SunPower Buy Opportunity?
      Jack,

      I bought CSIQ at $20 based on your commentary. The research I did supported your commentary, but I never would have heard of them if not for you. So far, still long. Thanks.
      View article »
    • Sun May 11th 08:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities: Bubble or Not?
      I believe this year's 'summer driving season' has been canceled due to budget constraints.
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 20:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade's Annual Shareholder Meeting Should Pressure the Shorts
      Sheesh, I was just hoping for a non-manipulated stock play. Foolish am I.
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 20:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should We Force a Housing Bottom?
      Is anyone else thinking:

      maybe the fed isn't fighting inflation in order to inflate our way out of the housing crash?
      View article »
    • Thu May 8th 17:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Oil Bubbling Over?
      How's this for an anology:

      speculation to supply and demand is like an amplifier to a guitar.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 12:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil
      'Shortly after the discovery of oil in Pennsylvania by John D. Rockefeller the United States government proclaimed that we would soon run out. '

      I can't believe an inventory analysis done shortly after oil was discovered is even considered relevant.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 10:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      6 Ways to Profit from Gold's Dip Below $850
      A 7th way to profit: short it.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 08:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      International Paper Beaten to a Pulp: Time to Buy?
      And by 'falls' I mean rises or strengthens in the 4th sentence. My bad.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 08:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      International Paper Beaten to a Pulp: Time to Buy?
      Here's the catch with IP: the products they produce are mostly freight friendly commodities.

      Hard rolls of paper and linerboard are very suitable for ocean liner transit due to their high density. In my opinion a bet on IP is really a bet on the dollar. If the USD continues to fall they should make record profits (strong exports), but if it falls their profits could easily go to nearly zero (strong imports).

      As recently as 2004 they lost money, and their top line revenue is only up about 5% total since then. They just bought Weyerhaeuser's containerboard division which should improve the top line, but if the dollar turns, the benefits from the acquisition would otherwise be limited to 'synergy' and 'further economies of scale' from what was already two very big containerboard producers.

      fake disclosure: 'synergy' and 'economies of scale' in pulp and paper are very similiar to 'goodwill' and 'intangible assets' on a balance sheet.
      View article »
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