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VP of Common Sense
61 Comments
Sirius Opportunity in Satellite Radio
I don't see it. XM's ratio of cost of sales vs. revenues actually got worse in 2007 vs. 2006. So the whole 'economy of scale' argument doesn't seem to hold up. Sirius seems to be better run, but not by much. The point is, it seems size (subscriber base) isn't going to help all that much.
Frankly if I had to take a position it would be short, because a merger doesn't appear to be enough to bail these guys out. However those that are long are counting on it.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
Steve: whatever.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
news.com/News/Item/0,4...
No wonder you talk in circles and your arguments don't make sense. That's your goal! When something smells fishy, it usually is.
U.S. Economy Reaches a Fork in the Road
In the pulp and paper industry margins are slim to none (0-5%), so exchange rates and freight are more than enough to swing the day. At the same time it is a capital intense business so cheap labor from country X isn't enough to overcome the other factors.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
AMAT? Different discussion.
Yes FSLR can expand, but 700% isn't going to happen ever again. The laws of big numbers start to kick in. 714% is absurd going forward. Does anyone think they will do $4 per in Q1 2009?
At the end of the day my argument is that FSLR's sales growth curve is flattening out, and their stock price is based on continued near vertical growth. Something has to give. If you want to argue about other things I have no comment.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
1. FSLR has stated they are not building 8 plants next year, and 32 the year after that. So 400% per year isn't going to happen.
2. Once poli based production comes within 2x cost of FSLR their advantage wanes significantly as the cost of twice (potentially 3x)as many panels per install becomes a major factor.
Seriously, your comments as well as Andrew Ling's are a reason to sell alone. The term 'bull' is not adequate to describe your collective position. The stock is already a '12 bagger', let it go. Find another stock to ride upwards.
If you think that's crazy talk, then I suggest you diversify and go long Potash. They seem to be early in the growth curve as well.
Pacific Capital Bancorp: Immune to the Housing Crisis - or in Denial?
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
But what the heck, at 714% yoy, they need to do about $803M in Q4 2008 to keep it up.
I don't *think* anyone here is trashing the company, but the growth rate is going to taper off.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
S&P/Case-Shiller February Home Price Data
Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space
Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space
I bought FSLR, CSIQ, and SPWR in February based at least partially on your commentary. So far that has worked out pretty well. I'm leaning towards dumping FSLR after Q1 results come out, as estimates are well below what they did in Q3 and Q4. Maybe I should sell now, but timing is what it is.
Either way FSLR is on the way out of my portfolio. I partially agree with your P/E based analysis, but I also agree with prior posts that P/E alone is not a reason to buy a stock. So other than P/E, what does TSL bring to the table? Also, what would your top three in the sector look like right now?
The Impending Mortgage Crisis
Both of you live in fairly expensive cities that have had a run up in housing prices. My point remains in that the market in Chicago will not significantly affect Peoria, IL or the Quad cities region on the Iowa border. Of course not many Chicagoans are willing to make that trade down. As far as Seattle, it seems most of the Pacific northwest has seen a large run up in pricing, and I don't know where that "wave" ran out of gas, maybe Idaho.
When I lived in Arizona the people driving the market were predominately from California. They were usually cashing out for $500k+ in the Los Angeles basin to buy a "cheap" house for $400k in Flagstaff or one for $300k in Phoenix. By that time Vegas had already run up. It was literally a "wave" that started in LA and rolled eastward until it petered out around Texas, because, well, Texas is not all that desireable. If I recall correctly the last southwest community to see a major increase in pricing was Albuquerque. At the same time another wave went north from California towards Oregon and Washington, and again, the further one went away from California, the longer the bubble went before popping. Only a year ago people in Portland, OR were still clamoring about how they had escaped the housing slowdown.
So I still think real estate is local, but there is also an equilibrium factor in that when the median home price is 5x different between two major cities (say, Atlanta and Los Angeles), people will make the move. It might take 7x to get them to Memphis, or 10x to get them to rural Iowa, but you get the idea. The spread can only get so large before the wealth redistributes.