VP of Common Sense

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

I like DXO... Solar just follows oil anyway...

Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over

Wow, the comments on math are amazing:

$0.69/kW should have been $0.69/watt, which typo aside, is a recipe for losing money in the absence of subsidies.

$8 is 60% more than $5, not 180%. An investment going from $5 to $14 is a 180% return.

As far as the solar sector goes, although solar energy has no direct economic relationship to oil, solar stocks seem to move in lockstep with the price of oil. My opinion is that solar stock prices also are driven by equity speculators, so as the equity market as a whole rebounds I expect solar will as well (unless oil craters).

10 Interesting Stocks Under $10

Seriously, how is CSIQ risky? They had their best quarter ever in Q4 and their P/E is about 2.5, and appears to be headed lower.

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

Didn't CSIQ already release Q2 earnings, or pre-release them? Estimated earnings were $33-35M etc., should be around $0.77/share...

Expect Continued Canadian Solar Financing This Year

Unless I am reading things incorrectly, their 'purchase obligations' are merely raw material contracts. Since they are in a very raw material intensive business this seems like a normal practice.

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

West1: I *think* the yuan is pegged off the dollar, so even though they do business in europe they still suffer the dollar/euro exchange issues.

Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow

Here's where I split with Jack on the TSL/CSIQ debate: CSIQ appears to be adding production capacity at a much faster rate than TSL. I think TSL will continue to be profitable, but in general growth tends to generate much higher stock prices. As such I've added to my CSIQ position while maintaining a smaller position in TSL.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Full disclosure: I bought FSLR at $205 because I thought they were the leader in thin film. They probably still are, but I agree that the P/E is absurd.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

This is mostly a JackY question, but I'll look at any answer with logic behind it:

I bought FSLR, CSIQ, and SPWR in February based at least partially on your commentary. So far that has worked out pretty well. I'm leaning towards dumping FSLR after Q1 results come out, as estimates are well below what they did in Q3 and Q4. Maybe I should sell now, but timing is what it is.

Either way FSLR is on the way out of my portfolio. I partially agree with your P/E based analysis, but I also agree with prior posts that P/E alone is not a reason to buy a stock. So other than P/E, what does TSL bring to the table? Also, what would your top three in the sector look like right now?