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  • Annals Of Quantitative Overconfidence, Boeing Edition [View article]
    Perhaps engineering work should not be done by engineers? That is so crazy, it just may work!
    Try equal parts of
    1. Bloggers
    2. Politicians
    3. Lawyers
    4. Used car salesmen
    5. Banksters
    6. MBAs
    Would be great to see, but from a parallel universe.
    Mar 12 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy This Undervalued Timber REIT? [View article]
    Thanks Vol for your comment. I took the time to visit the RYN website and review their statements and lots for sale.

    Their intention to sell land for more than their value as timberland makes sense and has been done by others. 40 properties are for sale, from $10M down to several we can write a check for. Lots are in rural areas, generally in the South.

    Along I-95 we have a nice lot 20 mi S of Savannah and a heavy concentration in Nassau (N of Jax) and St. Johns (S of Jax) counties.

    These are in fact "the sticks", and hardly high growth areas.

    In particular, Nassau has 67k people; St. Johns has 190k, its main city, St. Augustine, has been growing since the mid 16th century to its current 13k.

    With pricing around $15,000/ac, compare to real A and B locations (typ: infill for MF) at >$500k-1M/ac, which was my original question. RE angle not significant.

    JMO, a commodity wood producer that will move with housing, as will nail manufacturers.
    Feb 26 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy This Undervalued Timber REIT? [View article]
    "(3) remaining real estate is developed and sold as residential homes"

    Tree farms typically "in the sticks" not in desirable A and B locations. Please expand on actual results in this department. Thanks.
    Feb 25 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife's Nutrition Clubs Operating In Violation Of The Law? [View article]
    Not short HLF. It is commendable that you are following regulations, but most dealers have no idea that they need a business license, collect and remit sales taxes, inspections and several others as noted by the author. That would sink most of them.

    They dodge licensing, codes and regulations because this is a minuscule segment and the health department and others have bigger fish to fry.

    Drug dealers are a larger problem and there they are.
    Feb 8 11:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's (NOK) Lumia Windows Phone 8 devices are seeing post-Christmas discounts in the U.S. The flagship Lumia 920 is available for $39 on Amazon with an AT&T contract, while the mid-range Lumia 822 is free with a Verizon contract. And T-Mobile is providing the Lumia 810 for free with a contract. It isn't clear if Nokia is bearing any of the cost. The black Lumia 920 is at #16 on Amazon's phone bestseller list. (China Unicom[View news story]
    Checking the Amazon link shows the 920 at #9, not #16
    Dec 28 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Taxes: Who Makes And Who Pays - More Than The Rich Will Have To Pay More [View article]
    It would be fairer if the 100-200K group you mention, making 26.9% of the income paid around 26.9% of the taxes, not 24.5%.
    By contrast the 50-75K group makes 5.1% of the income and pays 9% of the taxes.
    Who's getting s*?
    Dec 10 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Taxes: Who Makes And Who Pays - More Than The Rich Will Have To Pay More [View article]
    While a 100% tax would indeed discourage effort, let's do a more realistic example,
    Blessed to be at the 35% rate, we can get a project that should leave a clear $100,000 profit, paying $35,000 in taxes.
    Rate goes back to 39.6%. Tax is now $39,600, an extra $4,600.
    Do we do the project and skip on $60,400 or spite Obama and let it go? Just in case, I go for it.
    Dec 10 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Taxes: Who Makes And Who Pays - More Than The Rich Will Have To Pay More [View article]
    The data set used runs to 2009 (and past years). Surely Shaw would have preferred the latest numbers, well, these are the latest available. Nothing sinister.
    The numbers and observations would be similar.
    Dec 9 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If The iPhone 5 Flops? [View article]
    iShoes, iBags?
    Brilliant, would sell like, like, say, iPhones. Same demographic.
    Sep 12 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Telecom Italia (TI -6.4%) and America Movil (AMX -1.4%) slump after Brazil's telecom regulator suspends phone sales for the country's top 3 carriers in a number of states, citing poor service and complaints. Telecom Italia's TIM will be prohibited from selling phones in 19 states, and AMX's Claro will be prohibited in 3 states. Sales can only resume after the carriers present investment plans detailing how they will improve service.  [View news story]
    How quaint, here they just pay to change the regulations.
    Jul 19 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) steps out as a large stakeholder in KPN (KKPNY.PK) after a regulatory filing with Dutch regulator AFM tips off a 10.01% ownership stake. The firm made its move just three days before America Movil's (AMX) €8/share offer for the telecom company. [View news story]
    $1.50 gain in 3 days on an $8.50 stock, 17% or 2000% annualized.

    That, kids, is called genius timing. Or inside information for you cynics.
    May 10 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: What Is Going On? (Part 3) [View article]
    John Krug
    What effect will the shelf registration of 125 million shares at $16.16 have on the share price?

    If the company's value remains constant, the addition of 125M shares to the current 965M would dilute the share price P to P*965/(965+125) = .885P, down 11.5% ~ 1 yr of dividends; using P=16.16 we get 14.31. (making some sense of "the other guy's" stop-loss @ 14).

    RS, pls comment. Thanks.
    Mar 21 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only True Fix To The Economy: A Smarter Consumer [View article]
    Our economy depends on consumers being dumb and buying things they don't need and can't afford. If consumers get smart the house of cards comes down.
    Mar 14 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The German government achieved less than half of its planned budget savings in 2011, implementing just €4.7B of €11.2B in austerity measures, according to the Cologne Institute. 2012 is getting off to a slow start as well. No word yet on whether an EU/IMF team is headed to Berlin to pore over the nation's accounts.  [View news story]
    Instant karma!
    Mar 12 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Now Is The Time To Buy [View article]
    Re: the withholding; on a taxable account you can take a tax credit on it.
    Feb 19 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment