Seadog

7 Comments

    • Myriad Genetics: I Told You So [view article]
      Being right or making money. On May 13th (when you told us so) the stock closed at $41.25. After the negative news it never broke below $45. How exactly did you make money on this put trade again? And you doubt the rationale that they will be profitable in FY09? They are roughly break even right now and have substantial net outstanding losses. The diagnostics business is hugely profitable (45% operating margins when not spending on their DTC campaign, 40% when they are) and growing rapidly. When you have sustainable revenue, cut spending on dead programs and pay no taxes, that falls to the bottom line. $60mm/45mm shares = $1.33 from cutting that program alone. Nothing in their pipeline warrants a trial near the scale that they undertook with Flurizan - that spend level is not coming back. Stick with collecting degrees, Doc. Maybe try English next - one datum leads but many data lead. Jul 02 05:17 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part I) [view article]
      "With doctors more and more concerned with liability, what compelling reason would they have to switch patients from a pretty convenient and simple injection to inhaled?"

      Great point Jose. To dismiss PFE's failure by blaming the device is being naive. If inhaled insulin really had all of the benefits that you allude to (safer, more efficacious than what? Where are the data that show it is safer and more efficacious than injected insulin?), doctors would have helped PFE get patients beyond the device hurdle. The most effective marketing force on the planet couldn't sell more than a few million dollars of the stuff. Billions of dollars of traditional insulin is sold despite a sub par delivery device. Inhaled insulin has been one of the largest destructions of value in pharmaceutical history ($8b? $10b? How much has been spent on R&D/marketing to date?). Fool's gold.       Jun 09 04:33 PM
    • Eyeball Datapoint of the Day [view article]
      * $1 per set of eyeballs. Apr 07 05:48 PM
    • Eyeball Datapoint of the Day [view article]
      They're selling about $1/eyeball each year and retaining $0.30 of that after tax. Nice indeed. Apr 07 05:47 PM
    • An Effort at Efficiency: SFDA to Become Part of Chinese Ministry of Health [view article]
      MEND is also awaiting approval of neurovascular coils for aneurysms. Mar 10 04:11 PM
    • Illumina Rises 20% on Settlement: Time to Cut Back [view article]
      News definitely did not leak, at least from ILMN mgmt side. They had no idea AFFX accepted their final offer until well after market closed. Deal happened around dinner time on west coast. Open field running for ILMN now... Jan 11 10:20 AM
    • AspenBio Pharma: Poised to Ascend New Heights [view article]
      And mgmt has stated plans to auction off the company. Jan 08 10:50 AM
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