wobatus

23 Comments

    • Monoline Stock Price Rally Overdone [view article]
      The rally has more to do with the intrinsic value of the companies' balance sheets, not the hope of future business.

      Nice call that the rally is over done, since now it must be burnt to a crisp. The selloff was overdone.       Aug 27 12:19 PM
    • The Emperor (Mr. Ackman) Has No Clothes [view article]
      James Davis, don't speak too soon. Now $6. Aug 15 03:14 PM
    • How Apple Stock Should Be Valued: P/FCF [view article]
      Are those 2009 and 2010 call options in the money? LOL. You'd better hope Apple isn't at $150 next year. Aug 15 08:22 AM
    • Omnivision: More Trouble In Store? [view article]
      Really? Disclosure: none? Aw, come on, you must have SOME reason to post this. Jul 17 11:29 AM
    • Cure for the Bad-CEO Blues: Sue Your Shareholders [view article]
      Ah yes, a cogent review by Eisinger, who wss spoon fed stuff by Einhorn for his WSJ column. Look at the log-rolling from Beth McClean, Weiss, etc. Ha ha. Hey, everyone knows, sometimes the shorts are right. Some companies are crap. But they shovel the shit pretty indiscriminately and make like ANY protest by those being attacked just proves they are guilty. Then they tout what a great "favor" they do by imparting the price knowledge via short sales. Great. Like other markets don't work without them. Hey, Jim Chanos, I bet folks that bought Enron stock you short sold them LOVE you.

      And hey, someties the shorts are right becase they destroy a company's rep, and the price decline becomes self-fulfilling.

      Weiss, you are a complete hack. Explain to me again why there are som many fails to deliever garty and why that somehow doesn't mean there are more shares outstanding at times to swamp demand?       Jun 20 01:27 PM
    • GFI Group Is Not Your Typical Brokerage [view article]
      ergo sum, I assume you are short or a rogue broker. :) Jun 13 08:16 AM
    • Why MBIA's Change of Plans Makes Sense [view article]
      Boruma, no one bought muni bonds from MBIA. MBIA insured the bonds. Jun 12 02:05 PM
    • The Stock Market: Searching for Signs of Intelligent Life [view article]
      Hey Panzer, I bought at $4.80 yesterday. Already up 20% in aday, and maybe I will sell to a greater fool, like perhaps a retail short covering 'cos he was losing his shirt after he sold short upon reading your drivel. I guess there is no intellgent life in academia. What, couldn't cut it in real world finance anymore?

      Just teasing ya, dude, throwing back in your face the same kinda stuff you were shoveling.       Jun 12 12:22 PM
    • The Stock Market: Searching for Signs of Intelligent Life [view article]
      Oldures, I haven't read the letters, but I know Third Avenue is on the opposite side of that trade. I was just teasing Panzer. My guess is more that he has just read Ackman's stuff and hasn't even looked at it that closely. Maybe he has looked at it in depth, but his article didn't lay out any serious argument with analysis of the numbers, and was just nyah nyah name-calling. Like he is flaming longs on a yahoo message board. Jun 11 07:38 AM
    • The Stock Market: Searching for Signs of Intelligent Life [view article]
      Oldlures, while I know Berkshire stands to gain new biz, and I admire the political conspiracy theory instinct, i don't know that the author, hereof, panzer, is in cahoots. All i know is, financial experience, professorial teaching credentials and all, he does not lay out any specific case why MBI, say, would be not end up having any net value after run-off.

      Also, Ackman, or Einhorn, i forget which one, was quoted as saying he ws astonished in speaking to someone at the rating agencies say that they don't have some huge team of guys pouring over the records of the bond insureres, just a few guys who pretty much go buy the filed info. If they missed it before, what makes anyone think they are getting it right now?

      My question has been, even without new biz, what is MBI worth ina run-off? Ackman has or had skin in the game. I don't even k ow that he is talking run-off. Panzer, i don't know his position, whether he has a vested inteest. But he never responded to my post, and I doubt he knows or cares.

      BTW, completely honest disclosure, i have no vested interest whatsoever, other than my interest in the market in general and economy in general. I am tempted to take a flier on MBI, simply because my limited reading and knowledge is their is net value above current price after a run-off. But I am not the gambling type, and I also don't want to stand in front of a train of bullspit.

      Anyway, go ahed panzer, what do you think is the value after runoff and why, and crib from Bill Ackman all ya want. I call bullspit on your "market is full of imbeciles" argument as well. I am glad I never had a condescending jerk like you for a prof.       Jun 09 01:47 PM
    • The Stock Market: Searching for Signs of Intelligent Life [view article]
      I think some mighty full of themselves minds come to seeking alpha. Sheesh. Jun 06 01:51 PM
    • The Stock Market: Searching for Signs of Intelligent Life [view article]
      Do you believe that there will be nothing left at the end of the day if they go into run-off? From what i understand that is not neceesarily the case, but i am all ears. Lay out the case a la Mr. Bill. Jun 06 11:32 AM
    • How to Get Apple to $200 [view article]
      Ultimately doing a dcf is worthwhile, not to give a precise value, but to give an idea of a range of values, which is what this guy did here. You can argue all you want that circumstances change, or all that matters is supply and demand for shares, but ultimately the real value outs over time (again, circumstances change, so 'real" value may be quite different ultimately than the model).

      So, despite fact shares of enron, MBIA, etc all traded very high at one time, they fell hard...and although aapl was valued single didgits after 200 crash, it is now worthw ay more. To say that a discounted cash flow analysis is worthless for a company like apple or any company is just foolish.       Jun 05 05:14 PM
    • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
      I think it is dangerous to assume that oil will go up forever. Maybe it has a ways to go, but to go undiversified due to a belief in peak oil could be very dangerous. There is a lot of recoverable oil which starts to come on line at current prices or higher. And whether due to short-sightedness or environmental concerns, the U.S. is in essence hordeing reserves off-shore, in Alaska and in shale. At some price of oil, the political will may emerge to tap that oil. There is also the large Brazil find, tar sands, etc.

      One of the big reasons for the current oil increase is large amounts of institutional money being allocated in that area, partially due to the dollar, but also because more investors now go where few used to go.

      But if you look at history of oil, there have been boom and bust cycles for years. It is a commodity after all.

      Go all in if you like, but be careful out there.       Jun 02 08:24 AM
    • Cell-Tower Fatalities: 3G iPhones at Any Price? [view article]
      Wow, touchy apple holders. I own shares but still found this sobering. Some of the longs here come off like flippant jackasses. I don't think this is apple's fault, but I wouldn't shoot the messenger for bringing this up. May 28 03:04 PM
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