wobatus

Amazon's Valuation: Sky-High and Crazy

User, those are good points. I know that 3 or 4 years ago I thought AMZN was pricey in the $80s, I think. Question is, how long can 25-30% growth last? AMZN is a great company, no doubt. In a comment on Lonely's board I agreed with Tom Armistead's comment-too risky to short. But I did think it was over-priced. Certainly at $140 or so i thought so. But good luck to you.


On Dec 08 02:29 PM User 506622 wrote:

> check the free cash flow metrics. (AMZN <equity> CH1 <go> on bloomberg).
>
> Simple free cash flow/share (from bloomberg) is $4.01 / $3.40 / $1.69
> for cy08/07/06. Or trailing 4q OCF-capex=$1.9b or $4.43/share. So
> thats only 30x and I bet some guy is using close to $6/share next
> year, so its only 23x for 28% sales growth last quarter (and if roll
> forward to 2011 assuming 25% growth and 25x $7.50 = $187 target for
> end of 2010 using a forward look on 2011)

Amazon Is Overhyped and Overpriced

I love the fact I got 2 negative recs for saying it is a great company, I think it is too pricey at these levels, but also dangerous to short. People must have thought I was too wishy-washy. Oh well, down a few percent since I posted that. Keep up the good work, Lonely.


On Dec 08 11:18 AM wobatus wrote:

> Agreed, Lonely. Armistead is right too. It may be overvalued but
> that doesn't mean short at will. And if folks don't like EBAY, not
> much not to like about COSTCO. Amazon is a great company, but I'd
> avoid the stock at these levels.

Amazon Is Overhyped and Overpriced

Agreed, Lonely. Armistead is right too. It may be overvalued but that doesn't mean short at will. And if folks don't like EBAY, not much not to like about COSTCO. Amazon is a great company, but I'd avoid the stock at these levels.

How to Value Amazon?

I don't think you could replicate and top Amazon for $3 billion. I don't pretend to know why its valuation is so high and going higher, other than it is a short-killing machine and they are definitely some of the buyers these days. A lot of the float is locked up in friendly hands.

That said, someone else here mentioned they don't buy bricks and mortar any more and just on-line. I don't go that far and do plenty of shopping at stores (mostly via the mrs.). However, every xmas, I do almost all that shopping at Amazon. Cheap and easy, they have all my relatives' and friends' addresses, know what I have bought them before, etc. A lot of last minute birthday gifts too.

One stop shopping. It's easy.


On Oct 26 07:36 AM logicalthought wrote:

> AMZN has continued to amaze me in that it has nothing truly proprietary
> (not even the Kindle) and is essentially just an extremely well-designed
> web site backed by fulfillment warehouses. In theory, one could replicate
> the entire company (currently valued at around $50 billion) for,
> say, $3 billion, consisting of $1 billion to replicate the web site
> and warehouses and $2 billion for an absolutely ubiquitous ad campaign
> to build instant name recognition. Requiring, then, a return on just
> $3 billion of invested capital (vs. AMZN's $50 billion valuation),
> one could then theoretically underprice AMZN on just about everything,
> and therefore massively steal its market share. I don't understand
> why no one has ever done this, so meanwhile, lol, I continue to shop
> at Amazon.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

The internet and instant communication? We're just guilding the lily-they had the telegraph and the phone back then, ya know.

Why I'm Selling Apple and Google Today - and Holding Amazon

This whole post just seems idiotic, like he trades on a whim.