wobatus

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Hey, now we are almost back to where it was when it ws unsustainable. Almost. Not quite.

There's always tomorrow....


On May 08 05:31 PM wobatus wrote:

> Even MORE unsustainable. :)
>
> Good call on TBT. Thought about it myself. Woulda coulda shoulda.
> bad call short financials. I am long some financials that I put on
> in the winter and plan to keep (GS, GFIG, GE), but did add some faz
> this week as a hedge. Gettin' killed, but added some more at $4.55.
>
>
> But that's kinda a lark.
>
> GOOOOOD luck with all the hocus pocus. Thems a lotta words.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Even MORE unsustainable. :)

Good call on TBT. Thought about it myself. Woulda coulda shoulda. bad call short financials. I am long some financials that I put on in the winter and plan to keep (GS, GFIG, GE), but did add some faz this week as a hedge. Gettin' killed, but added some more at $4.55.

But that's kinda a lark.

GOOOOOD luck with all the hocus pocus. Thems a lotta words.


On May 06 04:56 PM wobatus wrote:

> Wow, -5 for staid stuff like this? Wow. You market timing geniuses
> are easily offeneed. How's the unsustainability goin'? Oh, I'm kidding.
> I'm SURE you'll have your day. Is it your jobs to make Cetim look
> good in the interim?
>
> All the best everyone.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Wow, -5 for staid stuff like this? Wow. You market timing geniuses are easily offeneed. How's the unsustainability goin'? Oh, I'm kidding. I'm SURE you'll have your day. Is it your jobs to make Cetim look good in the interim?

All the best everyone.


On May 04 10:09 AM wobatus wrote:

> Highly leveraged heavily shorted garbage almost always leads a rally.
> Note how staid old PG, KO and MCD have just sat there or worse during
> this. Not that they may be spared in a sell-off, but pointing this
> stuff out is pointing out the obvious and doesn't make the market
> as a whole overbought (except on a near term basis, since 9 week
> winning streaks ain't exactly par for the course). I don not expecta
> sel-off eblow the march lows absent some exogenous event.
>
> What i get the sense of was November ws the real financial panic.
> The chances of utter meltdown have abated. But then the real economy
> effects of the Sept-Nov. meltdown became manifest, leading to a retest
> and break of the fall bottom in March. Now the ecomomy seems like
> it won't collapse either, and even absent stellar growth, it was
> oversold. We are just getting back to the "normal" recession prices
> from the uh-oh, maybe deprerssion prices.
>
> And now you have all the voices of "unsustainable" plunge protection,
> goldman is gaming the market voices. Voices of those who want to
> buy in, but at cheaper prices.
>
> Which is why the rally gets into overbought territory.
>
> And then we'll pull back, the "told ya so" disaster voices will come
> back in...lather rinse repeat.
>
> 'Twas ever thus.
>
> Personally, i am not doing much but holding onto stocks bought at
> what i felt were decent prices, collecting dividends, or watching
> the businesses grow even in this climate.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Highly leveraged heavily shorted garbage almost always leads a rally. Note how staid old PG, KO and MCD have just sat there or worse during this. Not that they may be spared in a sell-off, but pointing this stuff out is pointing out the obvious and doesn't make the market as a whole overbought (except on a near term basis, since 9 week winning streaks ain't exactly par for the course). I don not expecta sel-off eblow the march lows absent some exogenous event.

What i get the sense of was November ws the real financial panic. The chances of utter meltdown have abated. But then the real economy effects of the Sept-Nov. meltdown became manifest, leading to a retest and break of the fall bottom in March. Now the ecomomy seems like it won't collapse either, and even absent stellar growth, it was oversold. We are just getting back to the "normal" recession prices from the uh-oh, maybe deprerssion prices.

And now you have all the voices of "unsustainable" plunge protection, goldman is gaming the market voices. Voices of those who want to buy in, but at cheaper prices.

Which is why the rally gets into overbought territory.

And then we'll pull back, the "told ya so" disaster voices will come back in...lather rinse repeat.

'Twas ever thus.

Personally, i am not doing much but holding onto stocks bought at what i felt were decent prices, collecting dividends, or watching the businesses grow even in this climate.

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

OK.


On Apr 24 12:13 PM bonddude wrote:

> Yes but then you missed my comment about what is not being talked
> about yet the Fed is keeping tabs on, namely off balance sheet derivatives.
> Perhaps in my attempt at humor I wasn't clear.
> THAT is a drag for YEARS AND YEARS.

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

I suggest you try sending them money. :)


On Apr 24 04:08 PM dcb wrote:

> If you aren't sending e-mail to congress, etc then you aren't doing
> your job. I send out at least 7 per week. Also sending to GAO, inspector
> general, and Andrew Cuomo. If voices aren't heard they don't count.
>

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

-2 recs on this. That's not surprising. There aren't a diverse range of opinions out there in the media, across the spectrum, with people of all political stripes suspect of the stress test, bailouts, tarp, etc.? OK, whatever you say.

Good luck nevertheless.


On Apr 24 11:18 AM wobatus wrote:

> What is this about the media? I see reports in the media every day,
> across the political spectrum, of people ticked off about this process,
> lack of openness, etc. CNBC every day has folks on railing against
> the stress test, secrecy, etc., WSJ headlines to the Times. I'm
> not here to sing the praises of the media, government, bankers, whatever,
> but it isn't like there isn't a diversity of opinion available and
> out there. The good thing is almost everyone you talk to is pissed
> off about this. Maybe this "2-party" system is cracking.
>
> Anyway, everyone seems to gravitate to the media outlet they want
> to hear anyway these days. :)
>
> Best of luck.

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

Indeed. Good point. Even experts need the proper incentives. :) And some experts aren't so expert.


On Apr 24 11:20 AM Pj568 wrote:

> We know government is not the brightest nor leading edge when it
> comes to financial analysis.
>
> My question is where have all the experts, banks execs and other
> corporate gurus been to have ignored this. Are there really any true
> experts in our corporate suites?
>
> Sadly to say, the mega banks didn't want to cut common dividends
> until the Feds forced them.
>
> This whole thing is just pathetic.

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

Level 2 and level 3 assets may be a drag for a while. depends on what you mean by years and years. Go look at 1974. 1982. 1991. Different scale, sure. Maybe your reference is more 1933.

We'll see.

If inflation is everyone's eventual worry, well then...


On Apr 24 10:45 AM bonddude wrote:

> "Just a spoonful of sugar"- Mary Poppins
>
> There ain't enough honey in the world to make me think that level
> 2 & 3 assets won't be a drag for years and years. Those catagories
> add up to far more than level 1 right? Of course.
>
> So JP Morgan has how many off book CDS committments?
>
> 88 $ Trillion? Spoken with a Fargo accent--"OH GEEEZ"

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

What is this about the media? I see reports in the media every day, across the political spectrum, of people ticked off about this process, lack of openness, etc. CNBC every day has folks on railing against the stress test, secrecy, etc., WSJ headlines to the Times. I'm not here to sing the praises of the media, government, bankers, whatever, but it isn't like there isn't a diversity of opinion available and out there. The good thing is almost everyone you talk to is pissed off about this. Maybe this "2-party" system is cracking.

Anyway, everyone seems to gravitate to the media outlet they want to hear anyway these days. :)

Best of luck.


On Apr 24 10:28 AM conceptwizard wrote:

> There is no confidence or trust left by the investors, taxpayers,
> & Labor force towards the truth and clarity provided by our administration.
> Scandal leads the way. Obama has had an opportunity to make a difference
> but has decided to make the status quo work instead.
> 1. People should have been put in leadership that were not in a conflict
> of interest towards the financial sector, lobbyist or tax frauds.
>
> 2. A well thought out plan rather than throwing money out with any
> regulatory oversight or conditions was deplorable and shoddy workmanship.
> And now has come back to haunt the credibility of the path forward.
>
> 3. legislation was not followed by the FDIC in relation to dismantling
> insolvent institutions. Decisions were made behind closed doors to
> the detriment of the legalities of the situation.
> 4. It is visual that the emphasis is on saving the "To Big to fail"
> Financials, rather than other aspects that are as critical to our
> economy such as auto manufacturers and others . This has caused an
> outcry from the general populace, a political mistake.
> 5. Clarity has not been provided as to how bad the situation is,
> how big are the losses and who owns them.
> 6. The Banks are saying they are fine the treasury is looking for
> 2 trillion for something. What?
> 7. The Attourny General is tabling conspiracies from BOA CEO Ken
> Lewis landing the the Fed/Treasuries feet. Thus the President feet
> as they are his chosen ones.. This places huge distrust in the face
> of investors.
> 8. The media refuses to report truth and has instead become a voice
> of the government. Rather than investigative reporting that may have
> given us a heads up to some of this crises, they simply wait until
> the news headline rolls off the screen for the day from the stories
> that the Government wants covered and how they want them covered.
>
>
> I believe that a true recovery can't start until we have confidence.
> And we can't have confidence until we have trust, and we can't have
> trust until we have faith in the truth. And we are not getting the
> truth. Obama has missed his opportunity to be something Great, An
> Icon, A true Flag carrier. Instead it is policial pruning and business
> as usual. A great campaign was waged on the basis of "CHANGE". Instead
> we are dealing with lack of transparancies, conspiracy, and protectionism
> of the elite. I challege the President to PROVE ME WRONG!

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

Salaries, loans and competetion.

I personally do not like salaries being dictated by congress. You have to admit that if banks are lavished with public money, the public is going to want some say in how their money is spent. Shareholders tend to want a say.

Geithner, actually, is the one whio DIDN'T want congress meddling too much in that realm. he has to put up a fig-leaf of caring and stewardship of funds, but he WANTS the banks to be able to run themselves. It is congress that is actually pushing back against this, leading some banks to try to get out of TARP.

And the tea parties are actually people (not all of them conservative as traditionally thought) who don't like their tax dollars going to pay these huge bonuses as salaries. So your lauding of tea parties and then complaining about government getting involved in salary decisions seems a bit unfocused.

And I am all free enterprise. Unfortunately, a lot of this mess has been caused by a complete breakdown in shareholder oversight of corporations. Not necessarily through the fault of the shareholders, but certainly partially due to the large shareholders, financial intermediaries: pension funds, mutual funds, etc., who did not check the distorted pay packet incentives. Often because they just throw up their hands and vote with their feet, often because they just don't care, they are paid by assets under management, and aren't careful stewards because it isn't their money really...often because the corporation laws are horribly stacked AGAINST shareholders, egged on by free marketeer publications like the WSJ which often opposes shareholder voting rights initiatives.

Anyway, a crisis makes strange bedfellows. I like free enterprise, opennes, anti-communist, don't want government meddling in private salary decisions. Folks get up in arms about the bonuses and salaries. Fine. Sure, it is a deflection from the bigger issue. Folks are pissed about that too. Good. Corporate pay decisions have been badly screwed up foer years. I don't think free enterprise was at play. Logrolling by boards was more like it.

Anyway. Great that you are angry. I am sure you are like some who say the entire bank mess is all due to the Community Reinvestment Act. Somehow, Angie Mozillo comes off like just a poor innocent actor in that few. There is a LOT of blame to go around, on many fronts. It is GREAT that you are pissed off. Don't concentrate your fire in one direction WAYYYYY behind you. They are coming at you from all sides.

Take care and best of luck.



On Apr 24 10:53 AM wobatus wrote:

> Time warp.
>
> Anyway, you have GOT to be kidding me.
>
> Somehow, I don't blame the media pandering to the SDS and Black Panthers
> for the banking sector disaster (I know you aren't doing that specifically-but
> wow, what a bunch of raggedy old straw men), nor was that disaster
> caused by (as opposed to aided and abetted by) "statists". Nor would
> I cal the response exactly dovetailing with the communist internationale.
>
>
> I'd stop worrying about how MSNBC short-shrifted the Tea Parties.
> Fox covered it all, it is all out there (and at least CNBC, their
> other arm, had Santelli as a chief spokesman for it). :)
>
> Not to get partisan or anything. Plenty of blame to go around. This
> has been a fairly across-the-board disaster if you ask me.

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

Time warp.

Anyway, you have GOT to be kidding me.

Somehow, I don't blame the media pandering to the SDS and Black Panthers for the banking sector disaster (I know you aren't doing that specifically-but wow, what a bunch of raggedy old straw men), nor was that disaster caused by (as opposed to aided and abetted by) "statists". Nor would I cal the response exactly dovetailing with the communist internationale.

I'd stop worrying about how MSNBC short-shrifted the Tea Parties. Fox covered it all, it is all out there (and at least CNBC, their other arm, had Santelli as a chief spokesman for it). :)

Not to get partisan or anything. Plenty of blame to go around. This has been a fairly across-the-board disaster if you ask me.


On Apr 24 09:49 AM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> I look for the so-called "Stress Test", constructed by political
> lackeys for political purposes, to be rigged. The strong Regional
> Banks will be put into a non-competitive position so the statists
> can nationalize the whole system and finally completing their goal
> of ending Free Enterprise as we have historically know it.
>
> The cost of this silent overthrow of the Free Enterprise System will
> inexorably be paid for by generations to come. Who else will? Shame
> on us!
>
> We are seeing that salaries, loans and competition is being directed
> by closet Socialists so no one should be surprised when loans are
> made upon political preferences and priorities and not meritocracy,
> which the statists abhor.
>
> We also saw the Tea Parties, a populist movement to stop government
> intrusion in the private sector and our lives, being denigrated by
> the media. Why? Isn't dissent an integral ingredient of Freedom?
> The same media that supported the Students for Democratic Society
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), the violent Communist supported,
> murderous Weathermen and the Black Panthers do not want the people
> who support Free Enterprise to have their say. This is not accidental
> but show how far back the movement to destroy the Free Enterprise
> System dates.
>
> Where is the anger by the media with the intrusion of government
> in the financial sector last year has exploding into of government
> controlled Industrial Policy?
>
> With the foregoing in mind and considering that Tim Geithner, as
> President of the NY Fed had a major part last year in this intrusion,
> does any serious observer of markets, economics and politics believe
> the "Stress Test" will be anything by self-serving the statists agenda?
> BHO, his Administration and the current Congress makes the timing
> perfect and the investment is showing fruit of its labors.