wobatus

Chesapeake Energy: Back from the Dead

Lunn's comments I have read almost verbatim in response to another note, and only make the point that Aubrey is aggreesive (although here the market has forced him to conserve), and swift's comments do not address the actual arguments made. CHK is obviously well-positioned to ride this out and ultimately prosper. Sure, if natty goes to $4 or below and stays there, chk has issues.

Oh, disclosure: Long CHK. Hey swifty, where's your disclosure? :)

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

I think it is dangerous to assume that oil will go up forever. Maybe it has a ways to go, but to go undiversified due to a belief in peak oil could be very dangerous. There is a lot of recoverable oil which starts to come on line at current prices or higher. And whether due to short-sightedness or environmental concerns, the U.S. is in essence hordeing reserves off-shore, in Alaska and in shale. At some price of oil, the political will may emerge to tap that oil. There is also the large Brazil find, tar sands, etc.

One of the big reasons for the current oil increase is large amounts of institutional money being allocated in that area, partially due to the dollar, but also because more investors now go where few used to go.

But if you look at history of oil, there have been boom and bust cycles for years. It is a commodity after all.

Go all in if you like, but be careful out there.

Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact

High powered money has not been growing. It has been stagnant. And recession is deflationary, not inflationary. Plus the market expected a 1.0% cut, not .75%. U.S. demand has dropped. Look at oil service stocks (OIH). it had been dropping for a while during the most recent leg of the oil upsurge. Basically, it called bukllshit on $110 oil, and for good reason.