wobatus

Apple Overvalued? Here's What Else You Can Get for the Price

The only above post that makes a cogent point is the one about cash flow. I bought some Apple at around $7 or so in 1999 or so. It was trading near cash levels.

I don't know that it is an awful investment here. It is a great company. The author doesn't gainsay that. I think it could double in 3-5 years or so, maybe, if it continues this growth rate somewhat and premium valuation, or the standard 8-9 years for a solid equity. It will eventually run into a wall, law of large numbers, and a lot of its success has to do with a hip cachet that is hard to maintain. When everyone has an iphone, how hip can it be?

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

I think it is dangerous to assume that oil will go up forever. Maybe it has a ways to go, but to go undiversified due to a belief in peak oil could be very dangerous. There is a lot of recoverable oil which starts to come on line at current prices or higher. And whether due to short-sightedness or environmental concerns, the U.S. is in essence hordeing reserves off-shore, in Alaska and in shale. At some price of oil, the political will may emerge to tap that oil. There is also the large Brazil find, tar sands, etc.

One of the big reasons for the current oil increase is large amounts of institutional money being allocated in that area, partially due to the dollar, but also because more investors now go where few used to go.

But if you look at history of oil, there have been boom and bust cycles for years. It is a commodity after all.

Go all in if you like, but be careful out there.