wobatus

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

LOL. And they got a 10 minute standing O at Joe Turner's Come and Gone.

My wife and I had a nice dinner at a place in our neighborhood. Didn't notice traffic. The next day I showed my wife the headlines. We had no idea they were here. And my wife goes "You never take me to plays and I've asked you a thousand times to take me to Blue Hill for dinner." Something about 3 michelin stars. :)


On Jun 02 12:49 PM optionsgirl wrote:

>
> I agreed with your comments until this one: I don't see how you can
> conclude Obama is building up the middle class. I suppose it depends
> upon what your definition of middle class is-
> To me, it looks like he is killing the middle class, planning on
> taxing it to death in order to give more to the "have nots", more
> socialist in nature, bringing up the economic standards of the poor
> at the expense of everyone else. I am sure this will get a lot of
> thumbs down, (if it is read at all) but I don't care. When you start
> taxing people that make $150K- 250K a year and lumping them in with
> "the rich", you are undermining the middle class.
>
> President Obama took the first lady on a "date night" to Manhattan
> the other day. They flew in on the first jet, had dinner and saw
> a show. The tax payers foot the bill in excess of $150K for their
> little date night. They tied up traffic for hours in Manhattan, too.
>
> Wow, now we have American royalty. Nothing like leveling the playing
> field, right?
>
> On May 31 02:47 PM thotdoc wrote:

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

Wow, 2 negative comments about a movie reference? Wow. Funny that anyone would find those somehow "negative." I am not supporting any particular political philosophy (although I note despite yhe populism in the movie, Capra was anti-New Deal). The line about the middle class from neutrino just reminded me of the movie quote. And, even if some people bought too much home, y'lall don't find a bunch of people saying it's ALL just greedy homebuyers or idiots just a little, uh, supercilious.

So much of Seeking Alpha are these ham-fisted, "I am not deceived by the conspiracy and know better than the teeming masses" of other people, homebuyers, consumers, investors, voters, etc. It's really kind of disgusting the level of self-congratulation of some folks on these boards.

Negative rec away.


On Jun 01 02:26 PM wobatus wrote:

> Oops, scene, not seen, of course. And here is the full scene:
>
> <<Just a minute - just a minute. Now, hold on, Mr. Potter. You're
> right when you say my father was no businessman. I know that. Why
> he ever started this cheap, penny-ante Building and Loan, I'll never
> know. But neither you nor anyone else can say anything against his
> character, because his whole life was - why, in the twenty-five years
> since he and Uncle Billy started this thing, he never once thought
> of himself. Isn't that right, Uncle Billy? He didn't save enough
> money to send Harry to school, let alone me. But he did help a few
> people get out of your slums, Mr. Potter, and what's wrong with that?
> Why - here, you're all businessmen here. Doesn't it make them better
> citizens? Doesn't it make them better customers? You - you said -
> what'd you say a minute ago? They had to wait and save their money
> before they even ought to think of a decent home. Wait? Wait for
> what? Until their children grow up and leave them? Until they're
> so old and broken down that they... Do you know how long it takes
> a working man to save five thousand dollars? Just remember this,
> Mr. Potter, that this rabble you're talking about... they do most
> of the working and paying and living and dying in this community.
> Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in
> a couple of decent rooms and a bath? Anyway, my father didn't think
> so. People were human beings to him. But to you, a warped, frustrated
> old man, they're cattle. Well, in my book he died a much richer man
> than you'll ever be.>>
>
> I think about that scene often. Kinda funny after the housing bubble.
> Also when people start getting high and mighty about the "idiots"
> who bought too much home. Yeah, some were greedy, some were idiots.
> Some were reaching for a version of the american dream. Some were
> duped.
>
> Capra was very much inspired by A.P. Giannini, founder of Bank of
> America. Interesting that, huh?
>
> And you would never think it from the speech, but he was "rabidly"
> Republican and anti-Roosevelt.

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

Oops, scene, not seen, of course. And here is the full scene:

<<Just a minute - just a minute. Now, hold on, Mr. Potter. You're right when you say my father was no businessman. I know that. Why he ever started this cheap, penny-ante Building and Loan, I'll never know. But neither you nor anyone else can say anything against his character, because his whole life was - why, in the twenty-five years since he and Uncle Billy started this thing, he never once thought of himself. Isn't that right, Uncle Billy? He didn't save enough money to send Harry to school, let alone me. But he did help a few people get out of your slums, Mr. Potter, and what's wrong with that? Why - here, you're all businessmen here. Doesn't it make them better citizens? Doesn't it make them better customers? You - you said - what'd you say a minute ago? They had to wait and save their money before they even ought to think of a decent home. Wait? Wait for what? Until their children grow up and leave them? Until they're so old and broken down that they... Do you know how long it takes a working man to save five thousand dollars? Just remember this, Mr. Potter, that this rabble you're talking about... they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath? Anyway, my father didn't think so. People were human beings to him. But to you, a warped, frustrated old man, they're cattle. Well, in my book he died a much richer man than you'll ever be.>>

I think about that scene often. Kinda funny after the housing bubble. Also when people start getting high and mighty about the "idiots" who bought too much home. Yeah, some were greedy, some were idiots. Some were reaching for a version of the american dream. Some were duped.

Capra was very much inspired by A.P. Giannini, founder of Bank of America. Interesting that, huh?

And you would never think it from the speech, but he was "rabidly" Republican and anti-Roosevelt.


On Jun 01 02:16 PM wobatus wrote:

> Ah Neutrino, that reminds me of the seen in It's a Wonderful Life
> when Old Man Potter and half the board want to shut down the Bailey
> Building and Loan when George's father dies, and Jimmy Stewart gives
> the impassioned speech. The line is something like "Doesn't it make
> them better citizens, better customers if they own the roof over
> their head?"

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

Ah Neutrino, that reminds me of the seen in It's a Wonderful Life when Old Man Potter and half the board want to shut down the Bailey Building and Loan when George's father dies, and Jimmy Stewart gives the impassioned speech. The line is something like "Doesn't it make them better citizens, better customers if they own the roof over their head?"


On Jun 01 12:40 PM neutrino23 wrote:

> So what is wrong with focusing on middle class wager earners? Seems
> like it would be good for business if buying power increases.
>
> Similarly with regulation, I'm happy to see more regulation to the
> extent that it leads to transparency and honesty. Excessive deregulation
> is part of the reason we're in this mess. I'd like to know that if
> something is rated AAA that really means something. I'd like to know
> that if a company publishes earnings statements that those are close
> to realistic.

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Yeah. Once you look, it is hard not be in pain. Understood.

Carpe diem, gather ye rosebuds...


On May 01 03:14 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

> I do wish that I was less aware; it would be less painful.
>
> However, Safety Is A Function Of Awareness.
>
> Those who refuse to discuss the proximity of Lions become "Big Kitty
> Snacks".
>
> I am not Cynical - I am Concerned.
>
> Apathy Has Brought Us To Our Current Situation. There is nothing
> like being uncomfortable to pique interest in public affairs. We
> Are Definitely Going To Get "Change".

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Sorry, meant to say, of course, that fruits of growth was not universally available to all. Probably obvious from the context. And please excuse my mis-spellings and perhaps not being focused on topic.

Were economic swings in the past caused by government intervention? Lack of trust in government? Which came first, the lack of trust or the panics? How did the gold standard effect that? Or fiat currency, free banking, whatever? Was a large belly, watch fob and mutton-chops really the byword of succesful masculine fashion?

Was the greater growth stretch because of certain policies? Which factors were most important? Did man reach a tipping point in certain areas of industry, etc., in certain locales? Did you ever read Guns Germs and Steel? Does the law of large numbers make large growth rates unsustainable over time?

Can any Met pitch wortha damn beyond Johan Santana?

On May 01 10:46 AM wobatus wrote:

> I want to get back to this but tone it down. Prior to the New Deal,
> or the market crash, whenever, or prior to the Fed, whenever we are
> discussing, say 19th century to 1907 panic, we had great growth,
> but huge cycles. Caused or not caused by government intervention,
> or a certain type of intervention (I know someone has put forth the
> point ALL cycles are caused by the government intervening), whatever.
>
>
> Certainly, during a lot of that time, one has a hard time denying
> the fruits of overall expansion were universally open to all (I am
> not saying they weren't universally shared, we take that as a given).
> I mean, we had slavery racticed pretty much everywhere, and not stamped
> out mostly in the U.S. until the second half of the 19th century.
>
>
> Even tehreafter, many lived in virtual peonage, and not just the
> serfs of russia, but many people here as well. Women couldn't vote.
> The franchise was denied to many others.
>
> Many advanced by dint of smarts, hard work, some luck. many did not,
> and were to a large extent locked in place.
>
> Now, these are separate arguments, political rights versus economic
> freedom. I don't think the distinction was quite as broad to a laborer
> in 1900, a coalminer in West Virginia, a railsplitter, yada yada.
>
>
> Right or wrong (and not meaning to get back to gold, really), you
> had bryan's supporters feeling oppressed by the eastern money men,
> and the gold standard, as keeping them down.
>
> You had finacial panics. You had overall expansion over time, but
> huge, and hugely painful downturns, and for some it may have seemed
> almost impossible to come up out of the dregs. Like that black tenant
> farmer in Hard Times I mentioned. Of course, to move away from that
> legacy, it was damn hard for some white tenant farmers as well.<br/>
>
> And even if it is ALL caused by government intervention, certainly,
> there are different kinds of government intervention. What caused
> the tulip bubble and panic. or the panics after the civil war, or
> 1907, or now, may be caused by different things the government does.
>
>
> So. We vote them out. We look to change things. This author advocates
> commissions, inquiries or prosecutions of Paulsen, Bernanke, Goldman's
> trading, etc. maybe that is time and money well spent. Personally,
> I like Bernanke and think he is well-meaning. I could be very wrong.
> I may be naive, but probably less so than some of you may think.
>
>
> Get everything out and open and under the clear blue sky and we can
> all discuss and debate and decide where we go from here and how to
> get out of this mess. Because it probably isn't easy. Well, maybe
> some of you do have the solutions. I am open to listening. :)
>
> Take care all. I enjoy this kind of discussion, acknowledging that
> sometimes be a little flip.
>
> Best of luck in markets and life.
>
>

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

I want to get back to this but tone it down. Prior to the New Deal, or the market crash, whenever, or prior to the Fed, whenever we are discussing, say 19th century to 1907 panic, we had great growth, but huge cycles. Caused or not caused by government intervention, or a certain type of intervention (I know someone has put forth the point ALL cycles are caused by the government intervening), whatever.

Certainly, during a lot of that time, one has a hard time denying the fruits of overall expansion were universally open to all (I am not saying they weren't universally shared, we take that as a given). I mean, we had slavery racticed pretty much everywhere, and not stamped out mostly in the U.S. until the second half of the 19th century.

Even tehreafter, many lived in virtual peonage, and not just the serfs of russia, but many people here as well. Women couldn't vote. The franchise was denied to many others.

Many advanced by dint of smarts, hard work, some luck. many did not, and were to a large extent locked in place.

Now, these are separate arguments, political rights versus economic freedom. I don't think the distinction was quite as broad to a laborer in 1900, a coalminer in West Virginia, a railsplitter, yada yada.

Right or wrong (and not meaning to get back to gold, really), you had bryan's supporters feeling oppressed by the eastern money men, and the gold standard, as keeping them down.

You had finacial panics. You had overall expansion over time, but huge, and hugely painful downturns, and for some it may have seemed almost impossible to come up out of the dregs. Like that black tenant farmer in Hard Times I mentioned. Of course, to move away from that legacy, it was damn hard for some white tenant farmers as well.

And even if it is ALL caused by government intervention, certainly, there are different kinds of government intervention. What caused the tulip bubble and panic. or the panics after the civil war, or 1907, or now, may be caused by different things the government does.

So. We vote them out. We look to change things. This author advocates commissions, inquiries or prosecutions of Paulsen, Bernanke, Goldman's trading, etc. maybe that is time and money well spent. Personally, I like Bernanke and think he is well-meaning. I could be very wrong. I may be naive, but probably less so than some of you may think.

Get everything out and open and under the clear blue sky and we can all discuss and debate and decide where we go from here and how to get out of this mess. Because it probably isn't easy. Well, maybe some of you do have the solutions. I am open to listening. :)

Take care all. I enjoy this kind of discussion, acknowledging that sometimes be a little flip.

Best of luck in markets and life.




On Apr 30 12:35 PM wobatus wrote:

> The period was also one where certain folks were perpetually disadvantaged.
> That's why you had a lot of wobblies etc. supporting bryan and free
> silver (don't crucify me on a cross of gold, etc.).
>
> If you read Hard Times by Studs Terkel, there's a passage where a
> black tenant farmer talks about the Depression. He says something
> along the lines of, we just called it hard times. That's the way
> things always were. Just that it started hitting the well off white
> folks, and they called it a Great Depression.
>
> Thos panics use to mean depravation, degradation and poverty. The
> wild swings may have led to an overall rise in wealth, but unfortunately,
> not a lot of trickle down for some.
>
> There is no denying that the money supply did shrink by 25%, and
> that the fed was liquidationist to a great extent. This was not just
> caused by fear of government confiscation. Too much of it came before.
>
>
> If one leaves things perfectly laissez faire, and just ride the boom
> and bust and don't bring the lowest rung into the system and along
> for the ride, believeing they have a stake and a benefit, then you'll
> have breakdown and you can end up like russia did. They'll come and
> take it, right or wrong.
>
> Anyway, i get far afield here.
>
> On Apr 30 10:42 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Are you saying, in the Hobbesian state of nature, there would be no business cycle? Would there be a lot of business being conducted?


On Apr 30 08:08 PM Glen L. wrote:

> In the previous comment I meant to say that Zimbabwe poor are paying
> just about the same for a loaf of bread as we do in America. Gold
> has universal value.
>
> Further comment on Mr. Goodman's article, which has mostly been ignored
> in the gold bug vs. fiat bug debate:
>
> I broadly concur with his historical and macro economic analysis.
> However, I don't think it's correct to say that the people losing
> faith with the institutions was or is the exact cause of the Depression
> or any other severe economic downturn you care to mention. The cause
> of each and every expansionary phase of the business cycle was government
> intervention in the marketplace (this is even true of the tulip mania
> in Holland almost 400 years ago), and the collapse of the expansionary
> bubble is just the natural, inevitable market reaction. Therefore,
> it matters not whether the people have or haven't faith in the governments
> or banks or tulipmongers, what goes up must come down, i.e. back
> to equilibrium. The crucial point for everyone to understand now
> is that worldwide catastrophes like the Depression and the current
> fiasco happen when government (and its central bank cohort) try to
> intercede to mitigate the effects, i.e. prevent the deflation of
> the bubble or attempt to reflate it.
>
> The Great Depression would have been an ordinary depression (the
> old word for recession, which replaced the older term "panic") without
> the massive interventions of both Hoover and Roosevelt, and would
> likely have ended within a year or two, like all preceding downturns
> in American history. (Those who bring up American history prior to
> 1929 to claim that the business cycle is a fault of capitalism always
> fail to mention the fact that previous downturns were always brief).
> But the nanny-state politicians tried one bogus market intervention
> after another, and the US suffered its worst economy ever, lasting
> until 1946. Now we see Obama and the Congress repeating the mistakes
> of Bush, as FDR repeated Hoover's mistakes, compounding them by another
> order of magnitude, and gambling America's future away with my money
> and yours.
>
> Americans' loss of faith in their government was caused by the Depression,
> rather than the other way around.

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

I think most americans are angry. I know I am. Grrrr. At politicians. At the fed. At other voters. At illegal immigrants. At the money-changers. I am mad at Bush. I am mad at Obama. I am mad at the sub-prime mortage originators, the brokers, the folks that were too ignorant and spent beyond their means and got mortgages for huge properties they couldn't afford while i lived within my means, and now they are getting bailed out. I am mad at unions, especially the job-bank guys at the auto companies, but pretty much all of them. I am mad at excessive executive pay. I am mad at institutional shareholders that let all this go on and didn't care and were lousy stewards of capital. I am mad about corporate governance. I am angry at lazy boards made up of politically-correct appointees or cynosures of do-nothing. I am furious about the Community Reinvestment Act. I am apoplectic at the huge percentage of government workers per every private sector actor. I am REALLY mad at islamic fundamentalist terrorists. In fact, I am pretty pissed-off at all killers and murderers, from Colombine to Kandahar. I am at my wits end with idealogues. I have had it up to here with trimmers. I am mad at the self-righteous divine or godless.

Seriously, I am angry, and most folks I know are. But not always.


On Apr 30 10:42 PM metastar wrote:

> Wow, you're one angry dude! Its good to see. It's only because you
> walk with eyes opened. If more Americans were angry we would actually
> have some hope for real meaningful change. Now that's what animal
> spirits mean to me.

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Oh, i understand they can get ensconsed, that there is corruption, manipulation, etc. I also think voters and citizens have some responsibility for how things get the way they are. And i think sometimes the cynical should try being a step beyond cynical. You may be less aware than you think. Certain in less pain. :)

I am teasing.

Take care. All the best.


On Apr 30 09:12 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

>
> On Apr 30 12:16 PM wobatus wrote:

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Yeah yeah, i know. Don't think i don't know how to read. :)

On Apr 30 09:29 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

> On Apr 30 03:16 PM wobatus wrote:

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Dave, you make me laugh.

I love the "because it is beautiful and people love it" arguments. And of course, folks do.

Is there enough of it, now and being found, for the increasing amounts of things, people, etc. to spend it on? Would you have constant DE-flation if that were the standard? And wouldn't that likewise cause problems, planning wise?

Just tossing that out there.

Next, all fiat currencies end, and all empires end. And gold is still there. But during times when civilization breaks down, your gold may but also may not protect you. maerauding bands may come take it, or existence all around you may be such that gold isn't buying the material comforts it did when society functioned.

A functioning society is worth a lot. :)


On May 01 01:10 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Sure, when America gets into the same mess as Zimbabwe, and note
> the when not an if, then you will be able to buy bread with Gold.
> But by then the US will account for less than 1% of the World Economy,
> so who gives a damn?

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

If it was all Hoover and Roosevelt, why was it pretty much across the industrialized world?


On Apr 30 08:08 PM Glen L. wrote:

> In the previous comment I meant to say that Zimbabwe poor are paying
> just about the same for a loaf of bread as we do in America. Gold
> has universal value.
>
> Further comment on Mr. Goodman's article, which has mostly been ignored
> in the gold bug vs. fiat bug debate:
>
> I broadly concur with his historical and macro economic analysis.
> However, I don't think it's correct to say that the people losing
> faith with the institutions was or is the exact cause of the Depression
> or any other severe economic downturn you care to mention. The cause
> of each and every expansionary phase of the business cycle was government
> intervention in the marketplace (this is even true of the tulip mania
> in Holland almost 400 years ago), and the collapse of the expansionary
> bubble is just the natural, inevitable market reaction. Therefore,
> it matters not whether the people have or haven't faith in the governments
> or banks or tulipmongers, what goes up must come down, i.e. back
> to equilibrium. The crucial point for everyone to understand now
> is that worldwide catastrophes like the Depression and the current
> fiasco happen when government (and its central bank cohort) try to
> intercede to mitigate the effects, i.e. prevent the deflation of
> the bubble or attempt to reflate it.
>
> The Great Depression would have been an ordinary depression (the
> old word for recession, which replaced the older term "panic") without
> the massive interventions of both Hoover and Roosevelt, and would
> likely have ended within a year or two, like all preceding downturns
> in American history. (Those who bring up American history prior to
> 1929 to claim that the business cycle is a fault of capitalism always
> fail to mention the fact that previous downturns were always brief).
> But the nanny-state politicians tried one bogus market intervention
> after another, and the US suffered its worst economy ever, lasting
> until 1946. Now we see Obama and the Congress repeating the mistakes
> of Bush, as FDR repeated Hoover's mistakes, compounding them by another
> order of magnitude, and gambling America's future away with my money
> and yours.
>
> Americans' loss of faith in their government was caused by the Depression,
> rather than the other way around.

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Oh please, that was funny. You don't know the song: "Lawyers Guns and Money"? Oh well, I made myself laugh at least.


On Apr 30 05:49 PM wobatus wrote:

> Was that a Waren Zevon song? :)

Plunge Protection Team Attacks BofA: This Ends Now

Yeah, i know the reasons. Good points. In this day and age you can have a commodity basket. Uh oh, more derivatives. :)

Even with wheat futures (all the wheat this fine land can produce for 100 years), you can have droughts and land can go infertile. Someone could poison your land.

I still get stuck on the why, even with the attributes you cite.

But you are right, it is what it is and has been that way for millenia. People are stubborn. :)


On Apr 30 03:57 PM Carlos Lam wrote:

> On Apr 30 12:25 PM wobatus wrote: