wobatus

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

He is using microsoft's split adjusted price, which price also adjusts for the dividends (although at that it wasn't $24 split adjusted on 9/11/1998 per yahoo).

At $24 MSFT was priced at 48 x cash flow in 1998. Apple is at 15 to 20x, and you are not deducting the cash on the balance sheet to arrive at an enterprise value, not capex to get free cash flow.

But if msft has maintained value (and we are going from a peak to almost trough market period you are viewing), if apple has the same performance, at the current price it is a decent bet to triple over the next 10 years.

A double every 9 years is the standard S&P 500 historical return, not counting inflation effects.

Sounds like Apple might not be a bad bet, IF it can maitain a dominant position as msft has. Other investors here can address that better than I can.

You are mistaking the ability to double or triple in a year that a small cap may have with long term wealth appreciation. Warren Buffett certainly shows you can make decent returns buying larger cap companies, even as he made huge money early on with smaller caps.

I have no current position in Apple.