D Ramses

Citigroup Float May Experience Dramatic Upside Velocity

I will say this; his theory is a good one if only for the following reasons.
Citi will not be allowed to fail as long as the United States of America is viable and capable. They are printing money because of the low interest rates. They are a $2 stock.

This is when fundamental investor's and technical trader's worlds collide. This is a stock not a company, the company it represents is purely an abstraction, it serves as an Oracle into the direction we should value the stock. By all accounts Citi should be negative from a fundamental viewpoint but market mechanics only allow a stock to go to zero. That simple little fact tells you this is a stock, not a company, a device for trade and trade only.

This theory is about trading, not the company's fundamentals, not the company's viability. If you have a brain cell in your head you can accept this, not to be mean or anything but it’s not hard. The company's float is going to decrease substantially and not be available to short.

Kind of like FWLT, and GOOG and other low float stocks with ridiculous stock prices because there is no supply to satisfy demand. This is a STOCK not a company!

Citi's Balance Sheet Is Just Too Big to Fix

Umm, hmm. Nationalize Citi and risk alienating all of our financial allies? What don't you understand about the "too big to fail" moniker? It's a geo-political classification. Citi will never be fully nationalized and its onl because of public outcry and a more assured profit guarantee that the government is even putting itself into this bank. How else do you think we're goign to plug the gaping holes in the US balance sheet than to spin these investments off stealthily and without fully committing to the market's forces ergo AIG. This is AIG the remix with less risk but clearly as much to gain on a reversal and eventual profit.

Predicting the Financial Sector Rebound

I don't think we need to even pay attention to what the analysts have to say on this issue at all. Few, if any of them, got ahead of this downward spiral and as stated above no one, including the company operators themselves knows what their assets are worth. If I'm not mistaken, unknown companies riding on the hope of their potential are listed on the pinks, or are going to market in an IPO. We're talking about the world's largest bank whose assets are not defined by them but by a market they cannot control or influence. How much would ou put on a lottery ticket, because I'ma fraid that this is what Citibank has become. Granted 20 years from now this will have been a great buying opportunity, but do I want to wait 20 years to potentially double my money?!? Who is to say that 20 years from now the business that Citibank is in will even be viable? Wide sweeping institutional change could take place, will Citi adapt and survive? Yes, far flung questions, the point I'm trying to stress is every fundamental aspect of this company is now an unknown, between new leadership or lack thereof and a changing regulatory landscape who knows what this company is worth or where its going.