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Ptrmolinari

Ptrmolinari
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  • Does Ennis Inc. Deserve A 'Strong Buy' Rating? [View article]
    Really? Was staples a customer?
    Apr 9 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractive Opportunity Amidst Increased Uncertainty At EveryWare Global [View article]
    John,

    I take back that you pumped the stock.. you simply regurgitated the management plan disseminated from Monomoy Capital..

    My point is simply that Monomoy has failed to deliver on any of their promises so far.. This thing is levered to the point of a covenant violation and the truth is its still not cheap on an EBITDA basis..

    I am so sick and tired of seeking a Fake EBITDA number! you guys are selling plates, you are not a SaaS company. This is a mature business so don't try to fool your shareholders!

    I like to look beyond the illusion and so I go to the cash flow statement:

    These guys burned $24m last year in FCF in 2013..

    Even if they can reduce their capex to $10m like they said on the conference call they still would have burned $17m. How will they ever de-lever at this pace?????

    Why would anyone own EVRY at 12x EBITDA in covenant violation when you can buy LBY at 6.3x?

    Comparing EVRY fake EBITDA to LBY real EBITDA and EVRY still trades at a premium! Meanwhile, EVRY is way over-levered to the point it burns cash, and may face more dilution if they are not able to turn the business around quickly enough.. What self respecting institutional investor could buy this thing at anywhere near current prices given the monomoy share overhand, the massive leverage, the operational problems, and the expensive valuation?

    I really just dont get it..
    Apr 1 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractive Opportunity Amidst Increased Uncertainty At EveryWare Global [View article]
    Messieurs Leonard,

    Had we not received this equity commitment letter to allow us to “cure” our prospective covenant violation, the report from our independent registered public accounting firm on our
    consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2013, would have contained an explanatory paragraph with respect to our ability
    to continue as a going concern.

    Learnz about it before you pump a turd
    Mar 31 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks Are Doing The Job Of An Activist At Dolan Media [View article]
    R.I.P. Dolan Company
    Mar 21 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Destination XL Group Is A Good Buy [View article]
    The promote goes on
    Mar 19 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short - Healthways Inc.: 93.3% Probability Of Making A 20% Return Or Higher [View article]
    There is a lot of intrinsic value here. It is just a matter of getting Ben Leedle out and getting a competent CEO in place.
    Mar 18 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractive Opportunity Amidst Increased Uncertainty At EveryWare Global [View article]
    I think you are right that they will be considered a going concern.

    However, I think it is obvious that all of the projections for growth should be severely discounted at this point.
    Mar 17 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractive Opportunity Amidst Increased Uncertainty At EveryWare Global [View article]
    Is it possible they need to secure additional financing to be considered a going concern?
    Mar 17 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Just for your edification: calculated revenue is significantly below reported pricing because they net the costs of shipping this sh$t off of revenue.

    I too believe that break even pulp ebitda is a dream, but recent currency fluctuations have lessened the impact of the tariff. Regardless they couldn't make any money before the tariff and don't think they will make any even with the recent currency movement.

    Unless the IQ lets they off the hook for their principal repayment, they will burn $43m this year even if they are pulp segment ebitda neutral based on my calculation.
    Mar 17 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    Munich:

    You better hope that exchange rate doesn't move against you. Maybe the currency can offset the $115 in tariff but I still dont see them getting to break even EBITDA.. these guys always have some kind of problem with a boiler, or pipe or something. And they are stock promoters who will always promise things that they can't deliver.

    I still think they burn more than half of their cash this year even if they can be break even in pulp EBITDA which is something I will believe when I see it.

    If I were you I would be liquidating your stake into the pump effect you have created with your questionable analysis.
    Mar 16 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    Do the math for me as to how they can reach break even at current DP prices.

    During Q3 (I will use Q3 because it is more representative than Q4 due to the shutdown)

    With DP at $880 per ADMT in Q3 (similar to current prices)

    FTP generated $734 per ADMT in revenue and had cash costs of $872m excluding the tariff. (revenue is recorded net of costs to ship to china)

    Even after allocating $4.5m in Cogen profits cash operating costs excluding the tariff were roughly $830 per ton

    The 13% tariff should equate to roughly $114 at current prices.

    Essentially you are looking at a negative profit of $210 per ton for every ton produced.

    So you are telling me that Chad can get his cost of production down by over $210 in one quarter?

    Bottom line is fortress is not a low cost producer of Viscose DP. Look at Tembec or Rayoneer
    Mar 13 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    Chad Wasilenkoff has lied over and over to investors promising to reach profitability in his cherished dissolving pulp segment.

    Viscose is a massively oversupplied market of a completely commodity material. Fortress is not a low cost provider.

    This is a zero shot.
    Mar 13 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Callidus Software [View article]
    I am a bull and long the stock. Yet I agree with your arguments

    1. CALD doesnt make any profits (this is fairly obvious)
    2. CALD stock is up a lot (this is also blatantly obvious)

    However, I would argue that CALD is a SaaS company and is thus valued by many software investors on a multiple of SaaS revenue.

    Compare the the valuation on CALD to some larger SaaS companies like MKTO, CRM etc

    A SaaS model is an annuity.. Sales and Marketing can be turned off without impacting recurring revenue which significantly changes the margin structure
    Feb 12 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Dolan Go From Here? [View article]
    In their defense Jim Dolan and Vicky (CFO) both bought some of the preferred stock..

    I honestly don't think they expected their lenders to stop waiving the covenants.

    Sorry for your loss on the preferred.
    Jan 16 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Dolan Go From Here? [View article]
    My guess is that they file in the next 3 months
    Jan 9 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
125 Comments
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