Seeking Alpha

Ptrmolinari

Ptrmolinari
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Ptrmolinari's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • New Media Investment Group Offers 100%+ Upside With Downside Protection From Sustainable ~7% Dividend Yield [View article]
    I didnt want to pay the good boys at Fortress a 20% carry to run the company for me.. I manage money, so i dont feel like paying some ex bankers for what I view as performing the role a competent management team should do normally

    Company should be more transparent about the very significant performance based fees they pay to fortress.. I felt deceived that this wasn't explained in detail.. meanwhile we have this joker saying the newspaper business isnt in secular decline! It is! that doesnt mean it doesnt make sense to own a newspaper business but be intellectually honest please.
    Aug 19 11:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could 16% Of AmTrust Outstanding Shares Hit The Bid? [View article]
    Fact that they owned ONVO in the first place tells you something
    Aug 18 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amedisys And Greater Fool Theory Of Investing [View article]
    Hmm.. 7% Adjusted EBITDA margins that sounds like serious progress to me...

    And yes, the bidding war for GTIV demonstrates the strategic nature of home health assets as healthcare moves towards value based payment models away from fee for service.

    At the time of your article KKR was already involved and the wheels were spinning towards a new management team.

    AMED was an incredible risk reward play in my opinion.
    Aug 13 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Delta Apparel's Q2 Earnings - Falling Sales And Margins Amid Unprecedented Fall Of Cotton Prices [View article]
    You know man, you should really talk to the company and learn the industry a bit instead of coming up with theories out of thin air.

    Bottom line is you all are missing the point which is there is a structural problem in DLAs business and its not the price of cotton. They are either being forced out of the market by GIL, or there is an oversupply of t-shirt production in North America, or their end markets have come under pressure from fast fashion, possibly all three.

    Can they ever make money again?
    Aug 12 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Delta Apparel's Q2 Earnings - Falling Sales And Margins Amid Unprecedented Fall Of Cotton Prices [View article]
    In fact the best thing for DLA is stable prices. Clearly fast fashion is hurting DLAs surf skate customers and oversupply of basic t-shirt production is hurting margins.

    Also, Martin, the Bob Humphrys the CEO did not resign, that was the COO..
    Aug 11 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Delta Apparel's Q2 Earnings - Falling Sales And Margins Amid Unprecedented Fall Of Cotton Prices [View article]
    Solid analysis. The extent that challenges at DLA and EBF (alstyle) are being caused by GIL versus simply challenging end markets is unclear.
    Aug 11 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: An Undervalued Industry Leader [View article]
    Has the company publicly commented on the Altamaha river issue?
    Aug 8 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: An Undervalued Industry Leader [View article]
    Amen
    Aug 7 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amedisys And Greater Fool Theory Of Investing [View article]
    Where you at now Mr. Brice? I am sitting at $22 up roughly 50% from where you published this piece
    Aug 6 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Where Dollars And Portfolio Managers' Track Records Go To Die [View article]
    This is not very complicated:

    1. CRCM customer acquisition costs are growing consistently at 30% Y.Y and faster in 1H'14 meaning that if that trend does not quickly reverse they will never gain any operating leverage going forward.

    2. Their unit economics are much worse than they claim. Care.com includes reuse subscribers in their denominator for customer acquisition cost (NASDAQ:CAC) which means that unit economics are closer to 1.5x as opposed to 2-3x. Who knows how they are calculating 4-5x

    3. Citrus lane is an admission that their business is broken. If things were so great why buy Citrus Lane with a 2x ROI when you are getting 4-5x in your core business?

    4. Shares outstanding are really 35m+ as opposed to whatever number you are using. As Q2 10Q there were 31.3m common shares out and 4m dilutive options for a total of 35m shares under the treasury method implying cash per share of $2.14 at year end (guidance of $75m on last CC)

    Assuming that Citrus performs according to plan, the additional 16.4m in cash earn out will lower cash per share to $1.65.

    Given that CRCM has shown no ability to scale this business towards EBITDA, a 2x multiple of cash is the most appropriate valuation and thus believe the shares are worth between $3 and $4
    Aug 6 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: An Undervalued Industry Leader [View article]
    Time will tell if they continue to lose volume and price this will not be worth $50 per share.
    Aug 6 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Papa Murphy's: Take And Bake Profits From The Short Side [View article]
    I agree with the bear case, but wouldnt expect the business to fall apart in the next quarter or two..
    Jul 11 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Papa Murphy's: Take And Bake Profits From The Short Side [View article]
    Low quality BS
    Jul 11 01:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Didn't We See This Movie Already In 1999-2000? [View article]
    1. "The short story is that as they do more marketing, they're going to build out new channels and TV will seem expensive by comparison in the future." Well CAC is growing 30% y.y so sure seems like as they grow CAC goes up. If they had some great solution where is it?

    2. That's correct. When you compare the lifetime value of the customer with the CAC, you should use the initial CAC. The CAC they build their 2-3x ROI off of includes both reuse and initial use in the denominator so instead of comparing lifetime profit with upfront customer acquisition cost, you compare lifetime value with CAC that is lowered by the reuse affect. Isn't that simply deceptive?

    3. I am not suggesting valuing CRCM with a DCF. The underwriters have done so an come up with very high price targets. I am talking unit economics.

    4. I think their brand awareness of 30% is a better indication of their saturation than some crazy 2% number.

    "Every metric they have suggests a path to Operating and Net profitability."
    I would strongly disagree with that. They don't disclose any metrics and they are currently experiencing deleveraging of their SG&A line which doesn't exactly jive with profitability for a business with -20% EBITDA margins.

    "And their management has offered a timeline plan for that." Not exactly, they said 3-5 years to break even but to get there they will need to lower their CAC which in my opinion will not be possible if they continue to grow at a rate necessary to hit consensus estimates.
    Jun 23 06:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Didn't We See This Movie Already In 1999-2000? [View article]
    Evil:
    1. According to management at the Bofa Conference: "TV has been very successful for us as an acquisition channel. It's as effective or even more effective than SEM for us."
    This implies that they cannot cut/reduce TV as you propose without seriously undermining growth.

    2. Sure, reuse is great. But their ROI on CAC calculation is LTV (initial use plus reuse value) compared to not initial CAC as it should be to make it apples to apples, but in fact blended CAC, or CAC that is divided by reuse users. Basically their calculation does not account for the full cost to acquire customers.

    3. Unit economics are key to the bull thesis given that CRCM makes no money. If unit economics (which exclude the majority of the costs of the company) are barely positive then how will CRCM ever reach profitability? If I lay out $200 in CAC now and get $400 back over a 10 year period that is not as good as getting it back in year 1. That is simple finance man. When people start to ignore basic financial math bubbles are created.
    Jun 23 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
150 Comments
47 Likes