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bluefin646

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  • CorEnergy: 4 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Year [View article]
    If you guys like CORR, you might want to take a look at CRIUF adr, kwh.un local.

    Micro-cap energy re seller that just beat its 3rd straight qtr. Stock is extended at current levels, but due to canadian $ vs usd spread, you can still purchase at current levels. ie spread was .92, now closer to .75, so criuf has not participated as much with the current kwh.un move.

    just reported GM of 28.4%, no LT debt, 14mln of cash, 30mln revolver for acquisitions, also growing organically, and solar just started to show up in revs and profits. 11% yield.

    Here's a link of the CEO on TV:
    http://bit.ly/1E7peTs

    Here's chart:
    http://bit.ly/1E7pf9G
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Energy Group Walks A Precarious Path In A No-Moat Business [View article]
    Munger Fan,

    Spot on many fronts, however, one company you need to do more work on is Crius Energy Trust. I would be interested for you to take a look there, and see what you find. Your eyes will be surprised.

    Yes, they puked out of the gates in late '13/early '14 due to weather, who didn't. However, they just posted their 3rd straight quarterly beat, have zero LT debt, payout ratio for 2014 (with a horrendous Q1) was below 75%, and 56% for Q4, $14mln cash on hand, $65mln market cap, 3 accretive acquisitions in 2014, just opened up Texas, and their relationship with Solarcity on the solar side is just starting to take off. They have unique business mix of 2-3 year fixed vs variable contracts and as solar continues to grow, currently only 1.5% of their revs, that has a 15 year tail residual to it. Their hedging is anything but bloated, instead it is very disciplined and calculated aspect of their model.

    Stock ylds 11%. You can read my instablog from Nov 14, when I rec at $5.46, with 30% upside, as it has already moved 21% and paid 29c in dividends, or another 5.3%.

    It goes MUCH higher!
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Groundhog Day [View article]
    Yes, infrastructure and demand both currently lag new production. However, those temporary conditions will not remain in force for the foreseeable future!

    With over $58 Billion in pipeline projects permitted and/or being installed, just in the North East including WV and PA, the ability of the gas to flow at necessary levels is clearly on its way. Many projects that began at 24 inch pipe, have been upgarded to 36s and now even 42s.

    LNG begins exporting in the Sabine Pass in 2nd half 2015, with other major export facilities coming on each year, with major export capacity in 2017/18. 20-30 new lng ships being delivered each year for next 4-5 years.

    Yes, near term, 1-3 qtrs, natty gas is going to be challenged as large wells continue to come on and both mid stream and LNG can not currently meet that supply. However, in a matter of a few short years, the structure of the demand/supply curve intersections will be dramatically different as the demand curve shifts to the right.

    To put in perspective, the New England states, starting with Connecticut, are but 90-110 miles from the heart of the major Marcellus production, YET the majority of gas used in New England comes from Canada.

    How much sense does that make?

    Short term, natty gas pricing a major concern, however, looking out 1-3 years, the infrastructure necessary to flow ng around the globe will prove to be not only supportive of the price of ng, but will cause it to climb much higher than the current pundits are forecasting.

    ADM Energy Partners two year forecast is an avg price of $4.80, with the negative differential in north east PA below 50c/mcf (now currently in the $1.50 range).
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: False Rally Or True Bottom? - Looking Back To 2008/9 [View article]
    1. Currency, commodity, derivatives war w Russia

    2. Re-pricing of shale debt and dervis struct off of those instruments (ie: in house margin call on internal paper as IBs can no longer ride to zero, must liquidate to meet internal risk parameters). This was number one reason for both the speed and depth of the decline, but not the trigger.

    3. SA vs Brics, SA does not wish to hold price up for others @ cost to their own war chest. The move allows them to 'wait out' vs the others and gain political clout and muscle for future negotiations. Also shows the others that the 'new power' has the balls to make bold and difficult decisions w/o blinking.

    4. The Saudi cutting pricing to limit USA shale production is massively overblown. If USA cutting production is an unintended consequence from 1 and 3, so be it. However, this is by and far the most exaggerated aspect to this story, since inception. Self-centric view of the world by us, yet again. Re-pricing of #2 was over due and necessary, regardless of price of crude. That was just getting out of whack.

    Biggest over-looked aspect to last 4 months: Nat gas, LNG exports, and impact to rest of world starting in middle of 2015 and accelerating for the next decade!
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    Ok, so you are calling for a bounce to $68 minimum, then you have as high probability event that we put in a new low at the $35 level, c5?
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    1. Currency, commodity, derivatives war w Russia

    2. Re-pricing of shale debt and dervis struct off of those instruments (ie: in house margin call on internal paper as IBs can no longer ride to zero, must liquidate to meet internal risk parameters). This was number one reason for both the speed and depth of the decline, but not the trigger.

    3. SA vs Brics, SA does not wish to hold price up for others @ cost to their own war chest. The move allows them to 'wait out' vs the others and gain political clout and muscle for future negotiations. Also shows the others that the 'new power' has the balls to make bold and difficult decisions w/o blinking.

    4. The shale thing is massively overblown. If USA cutting production is an unintended consequence from 1 and 3, so be it. However, this is by and far the most exaggerated aspect to this story, since inception. Self-centric view of the world by us, yet again. Re-pricing of #2 was over due and necessary, regardless of price of crude. That was just getting out of whack.

    Biggest over-looked aspect to last 4 months: Nat gas, LNG exports, and impact to rest of world starting in middle of 2015 and accelerating for the next decade!
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    U may not use 'charts' or technicals, but you do use history and experience.
    Basically the same thing, just in visual format.


    Bottom-line, if we are to close near or at $70, we will be higher than that to be able to close the year at that level.

    We bounce to min of low $70s
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    What if your counts are off?

    New high was not made, nor currently has a new low been put in from the high/lows of 2008/2009. This could be a gradually tightening of narrower and narrower ranges in which crude trades sideways for years, in a 20ish% type band.
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    Great post!
    Feb 7, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.4% Distribution Breitburn Energy Closed QR Energy Deal But It Has A Growing Problem - Oil [View article]
    This works out to a buyout price of $22.48 per unit.

    Wrong, not even close!
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners L.P. Acquisitions Muddy The Water [View article]
    how did the QRE vote go through at 97%?!?

    Did anybody vote?
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Major Reasons Why The Current Low Oil Price Is Not Here To Stay [View article]
    Avg cost /bbl in the Bakken is $60.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 MLPs Flaunt Yield, Upside, And Net Gains For November [View article]
    These stocks are grossly over-sold, doesn't mean they can't go lower. I like the retreat as it gets me cheaper dividends as they auto-reinvest the divies.

    Saudi's price/bbl to run their government is ~$85/barrel. Granted, they have massive war chest which allows them to operate at a neg carry for a few months, but doubt they will pin it south of $85 for years on end.

    Russia/China major natty gas deal, which is massive pos for USA E&P as LNG shipping about to take off next 1-3 years.

    I have conviction in the shale plays, over-weight nat gas, equal weight oil, and allowing the dividends to re-invest.

    Would like to see QRE holders vote down merger, to force a re-neg on deal terms.

    Anyone out there playing mineral rights directly?
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, China sign framework agreement on second mega gas deal [View news story]
    Less gas for Europe means greater natural demand for USA's LNG exports coming online starting in 2015.

    Excellent news for natty gas E&Ps!
    Nov 9, 2014. 09:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners Just Gave Investors A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Darren,

    Well stated, except, you say u 'don't think' you would vote for the merger.

    Why even consider it down here?
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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