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  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Limited Ability To Maintain Its Distribution Without A Major Oil Rebound  [View article]
    Micrite,

    Do you think they go OB (out of business)

    You are talking about a stock that has been heavily hit, and at $2.50, market is pricing in at least a 50-50 chance of going OB, if not higher.

    Curious to hear your fundamental thoughts on the name at current valuations.
    Nov 4, 2015. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crestwood: This Turnaround Yields 20% And Could Be A Double  [View article]
    10 for 1 reverse split imply annual dividend of $5.50/share, yes?

    If they have Cash avail, why not announce a buyback?
    Nov 2, 2015. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Limited Ability To Maintain Its Distribution Without A Major Oil Rebound  [View article]
    And when crude was at 110 and Nat gas was $4, what discount was it trading to vs. it's pv-10?
    Oct 30, 2015. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CorEnergy declares $0.15 dividend  [View news story]
    stock getting no move up on the news.

    this is how you know this sector is in the process of being washed out.

    Apathy happens before stock prices recover.

    Hang tight. These names fly in Q1 2016!
    Oct 30, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Limited Ability To Maintain Its Distribution Without A Major Oil Rebound  [View article]
    Banks/per have already adjusted covenants to loans/lines of credit on a case by case basis.

    I def think you short more on any pop. And do the same with all the others as well.

    With most e&p mlps only have 5-7% short positions. I would much rather see those around 11-12%. Makes things much more interesting when crude goes into the mid 50s low 60s.
    Oct 30, 2015. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upstream MLPs May Be The Best Bet To Profit From An Oil Price Recovery  [View article]
    Obviously there is multi-layers of risk.

    These companies were built on commodity prices 100-150% higher than current prices. There will be survivors, and bk's. No doubt.

    Question is, who survives. Companies have, and continue to adapt to rapidly changing conditions. Not easy environment.

    The negative multiplier on the way down, is also positive on the way back up.
    Oct 28, 2015. 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners Announces Monthly Distribution For September 2015 
    And here comes the bounce
    Oct 28, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like
  • Upstream MLPs May Be The Best Bet To Profit From An Oil Price Recovery  [View article]
    Arp, Vnr, Ceqp, Bbep, Memp all offer outstanding risk/reward profiles at current levels.

    Will one or two go out, possibly. The returns on the others will more than offset those losses.

    Sdr and per are also great opportunities here, for a trade.

    Watch for small bounce next week or so. Be careful into year end, load up on all of these between x-mas and New Years, and watch the stocks fly 1st qtr of 2016.

    My gift to you.

    Peace
    Oct 28, 2015. 07:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources - Still Liking The 10% Yielding Preferreds To Play A Recovery  [View article]
    Vnr stole Eroc and lrr. Just a small move higher on oil/NLG prices, and this stock flies.

    Easy to call for bk after crude drops 60%+.

    What happens with the stocks that survive and crude is $60 and nat gas is $3
    Oct 27, 2015. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorEnergy: 4 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Year  [View article]
    If you guys like CORR, you might want to take a look at CRIUF adr, kwh.un local.

    Micro-cap energy re seller that just beat its 3rd straight qtr. Stock is extended at current levels, but due to canadian $ vs usd spread, you can still purchase at current levels. ie spread was .92, now closer to .75, so criuf has not participated as much with the current kwh.un move.

    just reported GM of 28.4%, no LT debt, 14mln of cash, 30mln revolver for acquisitions, also growing organically, and solar just started to show up in revs and profits. 11% yield.

    Here's a link of the CEO on TV:
    http://bit.ly/1E7peTs

    Here's chart:
    http://bit.ly/1E7pf9G
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Energy Group Walks A Precarious Path In A No-Moat Business  [View article]
    Munger Fan,

    Spot on many fronts, however, one company you need to do more work on is Crius Energy Trust. I would be interested for you to take a look there, and see what you find. Your eyes will be surprised.

    Yes, they puked out of the gates in late '13/early '14 due to weather, who didn't. However, they just posted their 3rd straight quarterly beat, have zero LT debt, payout ratio for 2014 (with a horrendous Q1) was below 75%, and 56% for Q4, $14mln cash on hand, $65mln market cap, 3 accretive acquisitions in 2014, just opened up Texas, and their relationship with Solarcity on the solar side is just starting to take off. They have unique business mix of 2-3 year fixed vs variable contracts and as solar continues to grow, currently only 1.5% of their revs, that has a 15 year tail residual to it. Their hedging is anything but bloated, instead it is very disciplined and calculated aspect of their model.

    Stock ylds 11%. You can read my instablog from Nov 14, when I rec at $5.46, with 30% upside, as it has already moved 21% and paid 29c in dividends, or another 5.3%.

    It goes MUCH higher!
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Groundhog Day  [View article]
    Yes, infrastructure and demand both currently lag new production. However, those temporary conditions will not remain in force for the foreseeable future!

    With over $58 Billion in pipeline projects permitted and/or being installed, just in the North East including WV and PA, the ability of the gas to flow at necessary levels is clearly on its way. Many projects that began at 24 inch pipe, have been upgarded to 36s and now even 42s.

    LNG begins exporting in the Sabine Pass in 2nd half 2015, with other major export facilities coming on each year, with major export capacity in 2017/18. 20-30 new lng ships being delivered each year for next 4-5 years.

    Yes, near term, 1-3 qtrs, natty gas is going to be challenged as large wells continue to come on and both mid stream and LNG can not currently meet that supply. However, in a matter of a few short years, the structure of the demand/supply curve intersections will be dramatically different as the demand curve shifts to the right.

    To put in perspective, the New England states, starting with Connecticut, are but 90-110 miles from the heart of the major Marcellus production, YET the majority of gas used in New England comes from Canada.

    How much sense does that make?

    Short term, natty gas pricing a major concern, however, looking out 1-3 years, the infrastructure necessary to flow ng around the globe will prove to be not only supportive of the price of ng, but will cause it to climb much higher than the current pundits are forecasting.

    ADM Energy Partners two year forecast is an avg price of $4.80, with the negative differential in north east PA below 50c/mcf (now currently in the $1.50 range).
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: False Rally Or True Bottom? - Looking Back To 2008/9  [View article]
    1. Currency, commodity, derivatives war w Russia

    2. Re-pricing of shale debt and dervis struct off of those instruments (ie: in house margin call on internal paper as IBs can no longer ride to zero, must liquidate to meet internal risk parameters). This was number one reason for both the speed and depth of the decline, but not the trigger.

    3. SA vs Brics, SA does not wish to hold price up for others @ cost to their own war chest. The move allows them to 'wait out' vs the others and gain political clout and muscle for future negotiations. Also shows the others that the 'new power' has the balls to make bold and difficult decisions w/o blinking.

    4. The Saudi cutting pricing to limit USA shale production is massively overblown. If USA cutting production is an unintended consequence from 1 and 3, so be it. However, this is by and far the most exaggerated aspect to this story, since inception. Self-centric view of the world by us, yet again. Re-pricing of #2 was over due and necessary, regardless of price of crude. That was just getting out of whack.

    Biggest over-looked aspect to last 4 months: Nat gas, LNG exports, and impact to rest of world starting in middle of 2015 and accelerating for the next decade!
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce  [View article]
    Ok, so you are calling for a bounce to $68 minimum, then you have as high probability event that we put in a new low at the $35 level, c5?
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce  [View article]
    1. Currency, commodity, derivatives war w Russia

    2. Re-pricing of shale debt and dervis struct off of those instruments (ie: in house margin call on internal paper as IBs can no longer ride to zero, must liquidate to meet internal risk parameters). This was number one reason for both the speed and depth of the decline, but not the trigger.

    3. SA vs Brics, SA does not wish to hold price up for others @ cost to their own war chest. The move allows them to 'wait out' vs the others and gain political clout and muscle for future negotiations. Also shows the others that the 'new power' has the balls to make bold and difficult decisions w/o blinking.

    4. The shale thing is massively overblown. If USA cutting production is an unintended consequence from 1 and 3, so be it. However, this is by and far the most exaggerated aspect to this story, since inception. Self-centric view of the world by us, yet again. Re-pricing of #2 was over due and necessary, regardless of price of crude. That was just getting out of whack.

    Biggest over-looked aspect to last 4 months: Nat gas, LNG exports, and impact to rest of world starting in middle of 2015 and accelerating for the next decade!
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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