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bluefin646

bluefin646
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  • The Pursuit Of Mediocrity - Fallacy Of Dollar Cost Averaging And The Abuse Of Indexing [View article]
    dane,
    just let me know when u find another corr, i will pick my own timing.
    thx.
    Jan 21 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets My Wife's IRA [View article]
    Rip2451,
    Have consulted 3 cpa's at this point. Can you cite the code that the ubti process you describe is cited? No one can find the 'shielding' then unsheilding process you specifically cite.
    In theory i understand your points, but i can not find any tax professionals that have this working knowledge that you so indepthly describe.
    Jan 19 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pursuit Of Mediocrity - Fallacy Of Dollar Cost Averaging And The Abuse Of Indexing [View article]
    A highly skilled investment professional should be able to generate above market returns, so the market tracking of the ETF is no longer a benefit, but a liability.
    Really?

    Do you consider the average equity hedge fund above or below average?
    The average U.S. based equity hedge fund has underperformed by a total of 1450 bps, or 14.5%, over the last two years. I do not have the exact stats, but they underperformed in 2010 as well.

    So, that blows a gapping whole in your etf/index market theory.
    And btw 9bps is .0009%, ie $90 per $100,000. That is downright cheap!

    No one is underperforming for 9 bps, or 20 bps. 2% and 20%, absolutely, over time, almost all underperform! And most with meaningful assets would be well served to pay 150 bps for an advisor, although there are many here who are more than capable of self advising (although it is clear that the goal posts move whether an individual is paying an advisor or doing it themselves.)

    Dollar cost averaging, i agree, isnt necc. Better, it justs makes folks more comfortable.

    Btw, Loved your corr call. Do u have any other small/mid cap undervalued yield plays?
    Jan 19 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revising My Portfolio Business Plan [View article]
    Hack,
    Will u buy a put spread? Or just outright single strike?
    Have you ever tried the spxu, 3x the inverse spx etf. Not a trading vehicle, but not poor choice as a porfolio hedge, if you understand what it is, how and when to use it.
    Jan 19 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Year-End Results 2012 [View article]
    Varan,
    If your numbers are substantiated, that is a powerful portfolio, no doubt. Nor do I see you justifying away your lack of performance. I will take a look. thanks.
    Jan 18 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Year-End Results 2012 [View article]
    400 bps underperformance and you are bragging about low commissions?

    That's $4,000 in profits for every $100k invested. Do the people you pay your bills to only take dividend income as payment?

    "Sorry sir, dont take appreciation money here, that's the other guy."

    The only number that matters, ever, gents, is total return. There is no other number. You are looking to build a growth and income portfolio and are justifying away your underperformance and 'net savings' due to commissions.

    What is your hurdle rate?
    Jan 17 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital One (COF): Q4 EPS of $1.41 misses by $0.16. Revenue of $5.6B (-3% Y/Y) misses by $0.28B. Shares -3.2% AH. (PR[View news story]
    That is a great call!
    Money, whats in your portfolio?
    Jan 17 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds: The Most Expensive Bargain In Town [View article]
    2011 SPX +2% vs avg Equity HF -5%.
    2012 SPX 13% vs avg Equity HF 5.5%.
    -700bps UNDERPERFORMANCE 2011, -750bps UNDERPERFORMANCE 2012.

    If you can sell -1450bps, which is 14.5% in the last TWO YEARS, alone, and justify 2/20, you my friend, are in the wrong career!
    Jan 15 01:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon - Why You Should Sell The 100% Rally [View article]
    I disagree. It was sub $3.50 for less than 10 days, in total.
    Stock works higher, as does ZNGA.
    Jan 15 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Well Hedged, 9.44% Dividend Payer BreitBurn Energy Partners Is A Safe Haven [View article]
    I like the QRE, not sure of the relationship you are referring to. Does the parent participate in the dividend yld, if so, could be a big reason why they are giving a 'favorable' price. Please let me know if you get more on this issue.
    Thx.
    Do u happen to follow CORR? thoughts?
    Jan 14 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets My Wife's IRA [View article]
    1. appreciate the transparency
    2. pre-08, 2007 to be exact, my cash account took a hit, I saw MEW, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal clicking down from $700B, to 130ishB to zero, and thought I had ideal timing in a short, well i was about 14 months early, and paid for it.
    3. Due to my view, I averaged into the SPX during the crash in my 401k at an average of 980ish, not quite 975, and quickly was down 30+% over the following 6 weeks. As I got back to break-even, -1% to be exact, I liquidated and missed majority off the run back higher for a good year. So even though I was flat for the year, felt like I missed a great opportunity.
    2011 was flatish, barely up.
    Last year was 8%ish, as my view on GDP was flat, but all things considered, I am currently above my high water mark as I re-allocated the portfolio 50% net long Friday before thanksgiving, and added 25% of the cash balance Dec 31st, mainly divy/mlp names and small cap, year end tax selling targets.
    I am currently waiting for a pullback on DC political headlines on Debt ceiling/sequestration to again add on dips. I have trimmed a few names as I feel top of range into political headlines. So current allocation is 401k 67% invested/33% cash, waiting patiently for pullback.
    I missed the china/japan move, and am looking for 15-20% exposure, given oppty on a pullback. I like the DXJ as it is long Japan w a hedged currency position, i would like to see similar product for China.

    For those that have/currently used advisors in the past, what have been the pros/cons, and if u were to use again, what are the 'musts' you need to have to re-engage in the process? Also, what were some average fees paid, and do you prefer fee-based advising?

    Current longs: (works for me, but doesn't mean it is a 'fit' for you)
    GRPN, ZNGA, CORR, GTAT, QRE, SZC, MDRX, MRGE, HZNP, TQNT, CTL, FTR. I am looking to trim the biotechie/healthcare portion of these names soon. Looking to buy beta/growth on a pullback, along with China/Japan.
    Jan 14 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method Meets My Wife's IRA [View article]
    For all you "do-it-yourself" portfolio players out there, what was your actual returns for 2012, all in? Don't give me the fluff numbers and subtract out your worst performers, i am looking for actual 2012 full year return numbers, preferably ira/401k ytd and cash acct ytd.
    Jan 13 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Zynga (ZNGA +4.8%) preps its international gambling launch, the company is quietly building an arsenal of gambling-related patents. Research firm Envision IP notes Zynga recently obtained 38 patents from R&D lab/patent troll Walker Digital, and that 33 of them are gambling-related. Altogether, Zynga is now believed to have 89 U.S. patents and 36 applications. Does the company plan to use this IP to simply differentiate its offerings, or to stamp out would-be rivals? [View news story]
    Comeback CEO of the Year?
    Jan 11 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some heavily-shorted consumer Internet stocks are closing out the week on a high note. FB +3.4%. ZNGA +8.3%. YELP +6.1%. GRPN +1.9%. Goldman's Heather Bellini is talking up the potential of Facebook's Gifts product, which it began heavily promoting during the holiday season. Assuming Facebook gets a 12% cut on sales, Bellini thinks Gifts could deliver $75M-$110M in 2013 revenue in the event 5% of U.S. users buy an average of 5 gifts over the course of the year. [View news story]
    except when priced to go out of business, and the company actually stays in business. classic value play, and yes, some absolutely turn into 'value trap' plays, however, buying 250 MILLION unique users for sub $1Billion in today's social media focused world is a BARGAIN that you can get NO WHERE else. IF Pincus and Co. can NOT monetize, some one else will. Hence the buy it, and not look at it for 5 qtrs philosophy.
    $2.48 last, $1.35 in cash, real estate worth conservative 300mln.
    Current mkt cap $1.9B - $300mln - $742 cash = $858 mln
    Jan 10 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransCanada's (TRP +0.2%) proposed re-route of the Keystone oil pipeline avoids many sensitive ecological regions in Nebraska but would still cross part of a key aquifer, a state regulator's report says. Nebraska's governor now has 30 days to review the report, and the U.S. State Department is due to release an environmental assessment of the pipeline. [View news story]
    yes, understood. Which names, small/mid cap and mlp names specifically stand to benefit the MOST?

    Which like names stand to get hurt?
    Jan 10 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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64 Comments
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