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bluefin646

bluefin646
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  • Are Preferreds Signaling A Major Stock Market Correction? [View article]
    Dont know your other articles, but this one was solid.
    Nice job.
    Aug 15, 2013. 01:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Groundhog Day [View article]
    Yes, infrastructure and demand both currently lag new production. However, those temporary conditions will not remain in force for the foreseeable future!

    With over $58 Billion in pipeline projects permitted and/or being installed, just in the North East including WV and PA, the ability of the gas to flow at necessary levels is clearly on its way. Many projects that began at 24 inch pipe, have been upgarded to 36s and now even 42s.

    LNG begins exporting in the Sabine Pass in 2nd half 2015, with other major export facilities coming on each year, with major export capacity in 2017/18. 20-30 new lng ships being delivered each year for next 4-5 years.

    Yes, near term, 1-3 qtrs, natty gas is going to be challenged as large wells continue to come on and both mid stream and LNG can not currently meet that supply. However, in a matter of a few short years, the structure of the demand/supply curve intersections will be dramatically different as the demand curve shifts to the right.

    To put in perspective, the New England states, starting with Connecticut, are but 90-110 miles from the heart of the major Marcellus production, YET the majority of gas used in New England comes from Canada.

    How much sense does that make?

    Short term, natty gas pricing a major concern, however, looking out 1-3 years, the infrastructure necessary to flow ng around the globe will prove to be not only supportive of the price of ng, but will cause it to climb much higher than the current pundits are forecasting.

    ADM Energy Partners two year forecast is an avg price of $4.80, with the negative differential in north east PA below 50c/mcf (now currently in the $1.50 range).
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pursuit Of Mediocrity - Fallacy Of Dollar Cost Averaging And The Abuse Of Indexing [View article]
    A highly skilled investment professional should be able to generate above market returns, so the market tracking of the ETF is no longer a benefit, but a liability.
    Really?

    Do you consider the average equity hedge fund above or below average?
    The average U.S. based equity hedge fund has underperformed by a total of 1450 bps, or 14.5%, over the last two years. I do not have the exact stats, but they underperformed in 2010 as well.

    So, that blows a gapping whole in your etf/index market theory.
    And btw 9bps is .0009%, ie $90 per $100,000. That is downright cheap!

    No one is underperforming for 9 bps, or 20 bps. 2% and 20%, absolutely, over time, almost all underperform! And most with meaningful assets would be well served to pay 150 bps for an advisor, although there are many here who are more than capable of self advising (although it is clear that the goal posts move whether an individual is paying an advisor or doing it themselves.)

    Dollar cost averaging, i agree, isnt necc. Better, it justs makes folks more comfortable.

    Btw, Loved your corr call. Do u have any other small/mid cap undervalued yield plays?
    Jan 19, 2013. 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds: The Most Expensive Bargain In Town [View article]
    2011 SPX +2% vs avg Equity HF -5%.
    2012 SPX 13% vs avg Equity HF 5.5%.
    -700bps UNDERPERFORMANCE 2011, -750bps UNDERPERFORMANCE 2012.

    If you can sell -1450bps, which is 14.5% in the last TWO YEARS, alone, and justify 2/20, you my friend, are in the wrong career!
    Jan 15, 2013. 01:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, China sign framework agreement on second mega gas deal [View news story]
    Less gas for Europe means greater natural demand for USA's LNG exports coming online starting in 2015.

    Excellent news for natty gas E&Ps!
    Nov 9, 2014. 09:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some will call it a back down, some a bow to reality, but the Basel committee approves a far easier liquidity rule for banks than had been proposed 2 years ago. Lenders will be allowed a wider range of assets that qualify as capital buffers, a lower assumed rate of fund outflows in a crisis, and be given until 2019 (rather than 2015) to implement the new regime. [View news story]
    No wonder why the xlf 'broke out' last week! This could get very interesting to the upside this week! Tremendous global teamwork as Global Fed Banks understand that banks will need some extra wiggle room as they tighten up some of the spreads, ie no more free money, or let's just start with less free money first. Smooth move by all! Hello 1500 spx!
    Jan 6, 2013. 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    1. Currency, commodity, derivatives war w Russia

    2. Re-pricing of shale debt and dervis struct off of those instruments (ie: in house margin call on internal paper as IBs can no longer ride to zero, must liquidate to meet internal risk parameters). This was number one reason for both the speed and depth of the decline, but not the trigger.

    3. SA vs Brics, SA does not wish to hold price up for others @ cost to their own war chest. The move allows them to 'wait out' vs the others and gain political clout and muscle for future negotiations. Also shows the others that the 'new power' has the balls to make bold and difficult decisions w/o blinking.

    4. The shale thing is massively overblown. If USA cutting production is an unintended consequence from 1 and 3, so be it. However, this is by and far the most exaggerated aspect to this story, since inception. Self-centric view of the world by us, yet again. Re-pricing of #2 was over due and necessary, regardless of price of crude. That was just getting out of whack.

    Biggest over-looked aspect to last 4 months: Nat gas, LNG exports, and impact to rest of world starting in middle of 2015 and accelerating for the next decade!
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    What if your counts are off?

    New high was not made, nor currently has a new low been put in from the high/lows of 2008/2009. This could be a gradually tightening of narrower and narrower ranges in which crude trades sideways for years, in a 20ish% type band.
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.4% Distribution Breitburn Energy Closed QR Energy Deal But It Has A Growing Problem - Oil [View article]
    This works out to a buyout price of $22.48 per unit.

    Wrong, not even close!
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Major Reasons Why The Current Low Oil Price Is Not Here To Stay [View article]
    Avg cost /bbl in the Bakken is $60.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 MLPs Flaunt Yield, Upside, And Net Gains For November [View article]
    These stocks are grossly over-sold, doesn't mean they can't go lower. I like the retreat as it gets me cheaper dividends as they auto-reinvest the divies.

    Saudi's price/bbl to run their government is ~$85/barrel. Granted, they have massive war chest which allows them to operate at a neg carry for a few months, but doubt they will pin it south of $85 for years on end.

    Russia/China major natty gas deal, which is massive pos for USA E&P as LNG shipping about to take off next 1-3 years.

    I have conviction in the shale plays, over-weight nat gas, equal weight oil, and allowing the dividends to re-invest.

    Would like to see QRE holders vote down merger, to force a re-neg on deal terms.

    Anyone out there playing mineral rights directly?
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QR Energy: Don't Buy The Hype About A Distribution Cut [View article]
    why do you think the exchx ratio is suppose to change?
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorEnergy: 4 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Year [View article]
    Fyi......

    From jan 14, 2014.......

    CorEnergy plans 6.5M-share offering to finance terminal purchase
    CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust (CORR) says it plans a public offering of 6.5M shares of common stock.CORR intends to use the net proceeds to finance the $40M purchase of a petroleum products terminal in Portland, Ore.
    Feb 20, 2014. 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Intelligence For Master Limited Partnership Investors [View article]
    NMM secondary was 5.5 mln shares.

    Also, if you are going to have weekly data, i rec including coverage ratio statistics.
    Feb 16, 2014. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QR Energy: An Oil Focused Upstream MLP With A Large 11.50% Yield [View article]
    Eroc continues to run a flawed dual model that even they continue to publicly doubt, just ask them. Eroc needs to pick a direction and stick with it, and spin off the other business. Not a very good comparison.

    Qre is focused and has much superior management. And they believe in the direction of the organization.
    Aug 15, 2013. 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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83 Comments
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