Urbane Gorilla!'s Comments

Wells Fargo Is Doing Worse than It Seems

Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:26:35 -0400

Yep.. My little credit unions have been bought out twice now. First by Wells Fargo and next by Chase. My Credit Card Company was bought out by Bank of America. In each instance, I got screwed. I will once again move my business to a smaller bank. The large banks are no longer worth supporting. Even with the bailouts, they expend their energies in trying to weasel another buck out of their customer base. You cannot buy a little bank and step on the same customers that bailed them out. To Hell with the big banks.

@Urbane_Gorilla

On Oct 24 11:46 AM najdorf wrote:

> ebworthen: Your claim is the kind of idea for which really good data
> exist - don't use anecdotes. Most large banks are growing their
> deposit bases through acquisitions and many consumers preferring
> banks who can offer more services, more locations, clearer government
> backstop, etc. Read the SEC filings on WFC, BAC, JPM, etc. and you'll
> see that it's true.
>
> The lesson of the crisis w/r/t deposit banking is that if you rate
> chase at small banks who have to pay high rates to attract funding,
> you face a significant risk of either rate cuts when they stabilize
> or having to deal with the vagaries of the FDIC takeover process.
> The FDIC or the banks they re-sell to can cut rates and terms, make
> you do a lot of extra paperwork and mailing, etc. People who want
> clarity and simplicity are often banking with the TBTF banks.

6 Dividend Stocks for Current Income

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:16:07 -0400

Yahoo Finance is notorious for not posting dividend info. Click on their interactive 1 year chart though and choose 'events' and 'dividends' from the drop down list. You have to hover over the 'D' on the chart.

For example, AOD (Alpine Dividend ETF) registers as paying no dividend on the summary page, yet shows a 12 cents per share monthly on the chart.

On Oct 21 08:37 PM MJJP wrote:

> I checked some of your suggestions and Yahoo shows no data on dividends
> being disbursed on many of those mentioned and also they are in the
> PK category.

Geothermal Is Getting Red Hot, Part II

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:47:02 -0400

I live up in Grass Valley, CA and did look at buying in Cobb, which is up in the mountains just west of Santa Rosa, CA. They recently shut down geothermal power generators there which had been operating for many years (Sorry, don't know all the particulars) and I'm not aware of any major quakes in that area..At least nothing like San Francisco and LA.. I really don;t see the correlation between quakes and geothermal..

@Urbane_Gorrilla ;=)

On Sep 08 08:18 PM singularityjumper wrote:

> I think the earthquake component is being downplayed. Here in Nor
> Cal wine country it is under strong suspicion and more stories are
> linking geothermal to seismic activity.
>
> The problem is the oblique nature of it all. As the Switzerland project
> happened, the project was immediately shut down. If we start to see
> other seismic activity near geothermal projects, the authorities
> will have no choice put pull the plug and protect the community.
> Did the geothermal project cause the quake? Maybe and maybe not.
> Makes no difference because authorities will shut it down as a precaution.
>
>
> I honestly believe this will become a huge issue with geothermal.
> There is no way you can tell the community that the project won't
> cause potential earthquakes.
> Your investment in any of these companies can come to grinding halt
> literally overnight.

Pinning the Blame on the House Republicans

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:25:54 -0400

The day the GOP voted down the TARP bill, the markets lost $1.2 Trillion. Clearly anyone with an ounce of sense recognized the reaction to Congress' failure to pass that legislation then as a failure of our legislature to recognize this horrendously large problem. As a Republican (but not a GOP), I lay that loss firmly in the GOP's lap. In fact, clearly any attempt at corrective legislation by the Obama administration is met by hostility and heel dragging in any field of endeavor. Factually, the GOP (Gasbags On Parade) would rather see the net worth of individual Americans tank, and would rather see the 18% of Americans that don't have insurance suffer just so they can gain political points. A very sad indictment of the GOP.

@Urbane_Gorilla

S&P 500 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 16:03:23 -0400

The snarky answer would be 'yes!' .. What a high short float means is you probably have a very volatile stock. Simply put, if the shorts are right and there is bad news associated with the company, then most probably, the stock will sink. However, if any news is interpreted as 'positive', or 'not as bad as we thought' then buyers come back in and the shorts scramble to cover, which drives the stock price higher. The news can either be valid, or 'subjective' such as 'Gee! The government won't let (company name goes here) sink into the muck!'

Luck! ;=)

On Aug 28 05:04 PM PseudonymName wrote:

> Does a large amount of short interest mean that these are primed
> for a pull back or are they ready to pop when the shorts get squeezed?

Chinese Stocks Break Below 50-DMA

Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:24:41 -0400

Just bear in mind that the Baltic Dry normally is affected by import of raw goods to China (As well as other countries - but this is a China article). If China has been stockpiling materials, then the BDI may only reflect the end of it's stockpiling for the present. A more telling shipping indicator might be 'container shipping' such as Seaspan (SSW) as that would be the indicator for manufactured goods being shipped out of China. The container chart can be viewed here : shipping.capitallink.c...

Luck! ;=)

On Aug 15 01:58 PM Bill L. wrote:

> The Baltic dry index paints a similar story; in March when the markets
> made a new low, the Baltic dry index (as well as China) show a bullish
> divergence. However, the Baltic Dry index has been in decline now
> since June. As China is such a large exporter, you would expect these
> to mean converge, thus bringing the valuation and prices of China
> related stocks back down to earth.
>
> The Baltic Dry Index divergence marked the bottom... could possibly
> be marking a top here as well.

The Whitney Whiplash

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:59:35 -0400

I think we can now call what happens when Whitney speaks it a 'Whit-lash'...

What (or When) Is Up with Natural Gas

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:41:16 -0400

Just a couple of points:

Natural gas is primarily used for heating, but also is used for electricity generation. The normal seasonal price increases in natural gas begin in July, move up through October (Air conditioning season), retrace and then ramp back up till January when prices drop again. A chart of the normal seasonal pricing can be found here (presuming seeking alpha has fixed their problem of including links):

www.spectrumcommoditie...

Even though commercial use of natural gas is down (factories, chemical production), we should still see something like the same pattern as normal, albeit maybe at a reduced rate.

What Went Wrong with California, New York, and New Jersey?

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:02:41 -0400

This is true. I worked in a County position involving tracking people. We consistently found people with 'cloned' SS#'s. But SS could care less. It fascinated me that there are many Americans walking around with illegal usage of their SS#s, that don't know about it, that SS will do nothing about and will never draw against the increased income as SS knows that the secondary numbers are illegal.. It's an American Ponzi scheme..

On Jun 28 12:47 PM FloridaBoy2 wrote:

> Illegals do pay taxes under a fictitous SSN. I firmly believe the
> problem only gets lip service from the government because many businesses
> want the cheap labor. These people do not come here to sightsee,
> they come here for jobs. The construction trades, meat, hospitality
> industries and agriculture employ them in large numbers. Taxpayers
> end up subsidizing this cheap labor. If the law was enforced and
> stiff fines imposed the problem would be greatly diminished.
>
> On Jun 28 09:30 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:

California's Default Is Certain

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 16:47:10 -0400

Just a note.. Calif has lost 25% of it's income...(We always spend more than we take in.. LOL! ) .. People discussing this subject have to ask themselves "Would an average family be able to survive a 25% drop in income after racking up their credit cards?"

On Jun 28 08:37 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:

> I don't understand why California is in this mess...it looks like
> a solution is simple, if you have the will to pull it off. It's
> just a matter of simple mathematics as taught in elementary school;
> to balance their budget they either have to take more in or quit
> sending more out or both. In California's case right now it's both.
> I know that will make some people unhappy but they shouldn't expect
> money for nothing anyway. I'm sure the movie stars won't mind maybe
> 1% more on their taxes if we'd ask them and I'm positive the illegals
> in California wouldn't mind going back home for awhile while Arnie
> gets the budget balanced. The welfare moms could work, as a last
> resort, in a McDonalds or Taco Bell to help out, like I said, only
> temporarily while the problems are being solved.

Chinese Real Estate: Getting in on the Next Bubble

Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:47:43 -0400

For 16 cents less, you can have E-HOUSE HOLDINGS ADR (EJ), which exhibits teh same chart and has actually turned up (10% today) .. Looks ready for another run to me.

Housing Market Has Clearly Bottomed for Now

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:49:20 -0400

B.S.

Kongzhong: Time to Accumulate?

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:33:23 -0400

Actually, KONG came up on my screener a month ago . I checked fundies ..Amazing numbers. Loved the business model ..And I sat like a bump on a log waiting for a pullback ..Ha! Never happened. The only concern I had was the total lack of institutional holdings .. Based on the percentage of insider ownesership, I figured that there just had to be a ton of retail ownership .. That bothers me a bit as retail buyers could panic and dump at a minor pullback ..Still..

Luck! ;=)
On Jun 15 03:40 PM Apple Diner wrote:

> This guy's article is really flogging this stock. He must be in deep
> for massive losses. LOL!

FAS and FAZ: A Short-Seller's Dream?

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:44:40 -0400

Wrong. I've heard a couple on Stocktwits. One in particular is @milktrader, who has been using this system for a considerable period of time.

I did run a backtest and couldn't handle the potential damage caused by a long intense run as noted by 'joethebull', but then look at the professionals that got hammered during this period anyway.

Luck! ;=)

On Jun 12 07:34 PM Sicall wrote:

> Who would be dumb enough to loan stock on a triple leverage ETF ?
>
>
> I have heard people say they are in this trade but i believe its
> an urban myth.

Why Is the U.S. Stock Market Stalling?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:30:38 -0400

The market has had a nice run and it is time for it to rotate into other vehicles. Over the last week, that has been the dollar. When the dollar is strong, commodities and the market drop. We had a $2 surge in the dollar over the weekend.

California Real Estate Market Recovery: Sales Boom, Unsold Inventory Drops

Sun, 31 May 2009 15:07:04 -0400

The comments make much more sense than the article. I own two homes in California and we have further to go. Just focus on two facts:

- Shadow repos are still not marketed.
- The only employment gains in Calif are government jobs and Arnold is cutting those.

In the immortal words of those philosophical geniuses "Aerosmith' "... Lovin' in an elevator.... Living it up while we're going down!"

Prices have another 10 to 15% to go..

The Imperatives of Healthcare Reform

Wed, 27 May 2009 16:53:07 -0400

- Remove the middleman. Insurers not only take 30% of the costs, but clutter up the system with obscure denials. (I'm speaking as someone who spent 21 years in the Industry). Health should not be a for-profit business.
- Oblige the pharmaceutical companies to offer drugs to the public for the costs that they sell them elsewhere. At present, we support discounts to other countries. That is just absurd.
- Develop a reasonable schedule of treatments as they have in Oregon and other foreign countries.
- Develop a 'Peace Corps' type of training system for Doctors and Nurses. let them pay off their debt with discount service here in the US.

There are many ways to clean up our health care mess. However, our government caters to the lobbies and our politicians will always work for them rather than the people. Unfortunate but true.

Have Home Prices Bottomed by Now?

Mon, 25 May 2009 13:26:18 -0400

Round 1 of the foreclosure story has just ended. Back to your corners. 'Ding!' Round 2 begins... And we're looking for a K.O. ...

More Bottom Indicators in the Sacramento Housing Market

Mon, 25 May 2009 13:23:16 -0400

Geez! Just read the paper.. Aside from businesses laying off which will increase foreclosures and Arnold's coming cuts (He has already cut 5000 State jobs and government has been the *only* bright spark in our 11.8% unemployment rate), banks are not listing their repos. Everyone with half an ounce of sense and any knowledge of the repo story knows this. If you don't, you shouldn't be authoring articles on the subject. This type of article is sheer hogwash.

I doubt that the link will show as SeekingAlpha doesn't accommodate links, but the Sacramento Bee today had *another* front page article on the *shadow* repo inventory. Basically, banks are not listing the repos they have for a variety of reasons. (This is not just a Sacramento issue either). When they do start to dump them on the market, watch for home prices to drop again. They cannot sit on them forever you know.

( www.sacbee.com/topstor... )

Sacramento Housing Bottom Driven by Low Inventory

Thu, 14 May 2009 14:15:09 -0400

Tim.... You've been calling a bottom in Sacramento Real Estate for about a year now.

The last time I posted a response, I noted my once $230K home off of Florin was now worth about $110K ... I just rec'd a housing update. Of the 8 recent sales in my area, all were REOs and under $90K ... One was less than $30K ...

When I see prices at $1 as they are in parts of Detroit, THEN I'll know we have hit a bottom ...

Time to stop that wishful thinking ;=)

On China's Love Affair with BHP Billiton

Sun, 10 May 2009 17:06:14 -0400

I like BHP and RTP a lot for their connection to China. However, VALE (RIO) is an interesting company in that they control the mines and delivery to the ports in So. America. The last I heard (and I have been a bit out of the loop until I feel the world economy is truly on an uptick) is that they do have their own ships under contract for construction (due to be completed in 2010 if memory serves me) in an attempt to keep shipping costs down. At present rates, shipping would not seem to be a big issue, but if the world economy gets back in gear, the present cancellation of new ships and the scrapping of older units could easily boost the BDI back up again. On the downside, VALE (RIO) has discontinued a joint venture with China to smelt the ore into ingots in So. America as a means of reducing shipping costs.

On May 10 03:25 PM Homer II wrote:

> China also buys iron ore from VALE in Brazil. Cost per ton to produce
> is cheaper in Brazil than Australia, but it is 9000 miles farther
> to China from Brazil than from WA. So, what portion of the cost
> is shipping?

Rick's and Netflix: A Time to Buy, A Time to Short?

Fri, 08 May 2009 17:14:23 -0400

Yeah.... What he said. You dirty old man! ;=)

On May 08 10:20 AM Nom De Plum wrote:

> Been watching the "trends" at Rick's Cabaret...I'll bet you have
> been!

Persistence of Volatility

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:54:33 -0400

Good commentary on VIX.

Aside from OptionMonster, you are really the only source of regular commentary on the VIX. Suggest you post links to your articles on StockTwits for those of us that follow you.

Thx!

A Retail Revival

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 08:36:49 -0400

Although I don
I don't buy retail (or autos or airlines),but if you like the sector, you might have considered taking advantage of the MACD and volume that you include in your charts. It's pretty easy to see where your entries, exits and stops ( the pivot just before entry) would be. True you would have been shaken out at a couple of points, but clearly the upside would have 'more' than compensated you.

Benefits of Immigration and Migration

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 08:21:00 -0400

I've lived in several foreign countries and love and respect their cultures. I do have to say though, this article is very limited in its perspective. From my observations here in California, there is a big difference between those immigrants that stand outside Home Depot looking for day labor, pick fruit in the Valley, or the undocumented server at the local Chinese restaurant, and those that do take jobs from construction and the local McDonalds.

Further, as a former employee of 'Child Support Services' here, I'd have to say that approximately 10% of my list was illegal Mexican. Because of there status, we not only had no means of tracking them, to pay support (which meant the family was on Welfare), but the illegal use of someone's SS# was quite common. My conversations with different associated branches of Government (probation, parole, jail, emergency services, schools and etc) indicate to me that this is a problem across the board.

The cost of dealing with this problem far outweighs any negligible benefit as referenced above.

First Time Housing Affordability Surges in California

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 18:22:56 -0400

Correct. We do have another 20% to drop. Aside from the obvious pool of repos and generally bad economy, consider that many people who have been benefited from the extension of unemployment insurance will find it drying up in the next few weeks. Then there is the matter of the 'shadow repos' that aren't even listed on the MLPs yet. This is not a bottom. Sorry!

On Apr 05 10:18 AM andyn1 wrote:

> oh please... prices still have a long way to go DOWN in CA...
so
> far, its down about 30%... it needs to go down 20% more maybe to
> the 1999 levels for this house of cards to settle down.
>
> Most of the sales in CA are "foreclosures" and hence it looks great
> for false statistics like this FTB-HAI. (dont you think the realtors
> want people to start buying again?)
> BTW what incomes are they assuming? That is going down fast too as
> 5M people have lost jobs.
> Compare prices and not strange statistics.

PPIP: Will Banks Just End Up Selling to Each Other?

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 20:20:12 -0400

Hard to believe that any bank would ever stoop to double dealing for gain, huh! I tend toward the cynical. Just because banks have good ads on TV and a pretty storefront doesn't mean they aren't really businesses at heart and willing to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead. We are so often swayed by image.

The Worst Isn't Over Yet

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:38:04 -0400

Not sure why 'latamike' has 7 thumbs down and only 2 up. What he says makes a lot of sense. It's too easy to read an article by someone who is proposing (if only for the moment) a position that you presently believe as well. I like Macro Man's stuff and read his articles. I feel they are well considered and they focus on the reality of the moment. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be how the market responds. After my last week's beating in SRS and SPG puts (which is the reasonable side of the equation), I'll finish this paragraph with a a well known quote from John Maynard Keynes "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" *Ain't that the truth!*

On Apr 03 10:48 PM latamike wrote:

> Unfortunately, for as smart as everyone seems to be on this site...those
> posting on this article seem to be making a "basic" mistake. NEVER
> get married to a belief, a position or a stock. The market has changed,
> its in bull mode now, lets all face it and make some money. I hope
> I don't need to tell you all to buy on the dips but after reading
> your responses I thought I'd remind you. I have to admit, the one
> question mark left is the commercial real estate market but for me
> that's not enough to stay away.

Seven Uncomfortable Predictions for the Economy

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 08:33:55 -0400

Yup! Aside from increasing social unrest in other countries (expect the Mexican Drug problem to spill over our border for example) I think you've summed it up very well. Thanks!

Base Metal Forecasts Slashed by Wellington West

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 00:48:39 -0400

I agree with John Thomas that copper will be a leading indicator of our turnaround. But, I do agree with the Wellington that there is no demand for copper, or other metals yet. In fact, if nobody is buying refrigerators, cars and laptops, then where is the driver for consumption. China will have to slow it's purchase of materials when they have hundreds of laptops stacked floor to ceiling in every huton in Beijing.