jegan ;-)

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+11 / -11

670 Comments

    • Sun Nov 9th 19:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Has the Baltic Dry Index Dropped by So Much?
      Ennova .. Just the ETF 'SEA' (Shipping) .. Not sure what you want to do.. If you're looking to short something, I'd read these two seekingalpha articles first... You'll have to Google the titles as SeekingAlpha doesn't allow the use of http addresses in these posts..

      How to Invest in Shipping and Whether You Should

      Digging into Shipping

      Both articles are by "Hard Asset Investor". The latter is a nice breakdown of individual shipping companies. Pay attention to which ones are contracted -vs- spot rates, which ones have a solid cash basis -vs- big outstanding loans, which ones have older ships that can be scrapped and which ones have new ships due to be delivered.

      Maybe you can find a nice pair trade in there. Personally, I've just sold my shipping until I see some activity from China. No China, no shipping.

      jegan

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    • Sun Nov 9th 16:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Waiting for New Market Uncertainty to Settle
      Profit taking on the news that Obama was elected. jegan
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    • Sun Nov 9th 16:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Railway Prices Stay On Track?
      I couldn't understand why the rails were doing so well moving coal and ag chemicals if the Dry Bulk Index is down 90% of what it was a year ago and ships are parked at docks, It makes no sense. Either we're consuming these products within the US, or they're piling up on the docks. I'm guessing our view of the rails is based on last quarter's earnings, whereas the DBI is very present on a daily basis. I sold my BNI on a jump and would look at rails real hard before buying again.

      jegan ;-)

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    • Sun Nov 9th 16:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sector Update as of November 8
      doolittle.. I see it in the Baltic Dry Index (Down 90% this year) and the steel industry (scrap steel down 90%), the difficulty getting loans and carry credit, local businesses closing, layoffs from every aspect of the business world, home prices down in some cases 60%, 30% of individual States in bad financial condition, the capitulation of Iceland.. I could go on, but I guess I'm surprised that you haven't noticed this.

      As far as the government spending like a drunken sailor.... Well, take a look at the 3 years after the crash of 1929. Herbert Hoover reacted in a laisse-faire fashion "letting the market correct itself'. Then look at the next 4 years where Roosevelt implemented government intervention. (Just go to Yahoo.com/finance/char... and type in ^DJI. The chart speaks for itself. Sitting on your thumbs (thanks Dubya!) leads to massive pain; much worse than we have experienced so far. Intervention (though nobody's favorite idea) is the only road.

      Anyone who hasn't looked at a chart of the DOW for the 1929 period and compared it to our present year has missed out on the most amazing twin to our chart. Then look at the next eight years. It is very easy to see where Hoover left and Roosevelt took over. It's the 'V' bottom.

      jegan ;-)
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    • Sun Nov 9th 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Picture This: Currency Trends
      You'd think the devaluation of other currencies would punish the dollar. After all, we don;t have that much further to devalue, whereas other currencies still can move down quite a lot comparatively.

      China has just announced a massive $600 Billion 2 year stimulus package. (Massive in comparison to their economic size vs the US.) .. Even though they have problems that we don;t seem to address here in the US, they still have us beat for GDP growth and they actually do have an internal market and are reaching out mutually to many other economies. (Just take a look at their recent ties with Russia)...

      Jim Rogers says he is the worse market timer. Maybe he finally has it right.

      jegan ;-)
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    • Sun Nov 9th 16:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?
      I suspect he was trying to say that AAPL was a bellweather in the same vein as Alcoa or GE. I n essence, it's easier for most people (not investors) to keep an eye on a large 'in the news' firm than it is to pay attention to teh gyrations of the market on a daily basis. Clearly though, when it was rumored that Jobs was sick and APPL tanked, the market didn't really go into a nose dive along with it. Nasdaq took a sympathetic hit.

      You want to know what's going on with the market, watch the dollar index. As the strength of the dollar has increased, the VIX has increased and the markets have tanked. Just about everything I look at these days either is in lockstep with the dollar/VIX or its inverse. Simplest thing to do is play the ultra ETFs and not get racked back and forth with individual stocks.

      In fact, all my charts now have a lower indicator, the MA10 and MA20 VIX.

      jegan
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    • Fri Nov 7th 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Loss of Faith in Buy and Hold
      Buy and hold only works 1/2 the time. You can hold while the market is going up. But when the market goes down, either you sell at a discount, or the market will take away your value anyway.

      jegan
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    • Fri Nov 7th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal
      Re: "When the boomers were coming of age, it was an age of indescriminate sex -- experimental drug use -- drop out thinking -- communal living"... Ohhhhh Yeahhhh ... Sure miss all that.... This generation is just plain boring!

      jegan ;-)
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    • Thu Nov 6th 17:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are International Equities Out of the Woods Yet?
      So. You think I should take my poor aged Grandmother's meager retirement and throw it down on FXI??? She was talking about spending it on her insulin.. But if you think so, then I guess we'll go ahead and do it...

      jegan ;-)
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    • Thu Nov 6th 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Obama's First Moves?
      mcafeejs .... i suggested the same to him a while back... Catch him onthe tube if you can.. Not just CNBC, but a 1/2 hour interview. You can also pick up more commentary from Finfacts. com (An Irish blog... But good reading).

      Go Terrapins!

      jegan ;-)
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    • Thu Nov 6th 16:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A $40 Bottom in Oil?
      Watch the dollar. Right now, when the dollar goes up, the VIX goes up. When the VIX goes up, oil and the market goes down.

      jegan ;-)
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    • Thu Nov 6th 15:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Follow the Wall Street Crowd - Prepare for Market Rollover
      This from MarketFn.com Bill Kraft

      We hear and see so much in the media devoted to whether the markets have found a bottom and where the bottom might be, but the truth is no one knows. Prediction is little but speculation and has no value. In his excellent recent book, Beat the Market, Charles Kirkpatrick quotes commentator and chief market strategist Barry Ritholtz as saying the SEC should require all analyst and pundit forecasts to publish the following caveat: "The undersigned states that he has no idea what's going to happen in the future, and hereby declares that this prediction is merely a wildly unsupported speculation."

      As Mr. Kirkpatrick notes in referring to David Dreman's research which studied 78,695 earnings forecasts by analysts over a 20 year period from 1973 to 1993 only 1 in 170 forecasts were within 5% of any four consecutive quarter's actual earnings. Why do we continue to rely on such speculation?


      jegan ;-)
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    • Wed Nov 5th 13:31 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      What Will It Take for Airlines to Break Even on Airfares?
      I'm thinking they could start charging for seat belts... And maybe in an emergency, they could go up and down the aisles with those little oxygen masks.. Say $10 each... Flotation cushions... In an emergency, I bet they could get a couple hundred dollars each. Suggest coin meeters on the toilets.. Make it $5 in quarters.. This way they can charge a 'change fee' if you only have bills. For that matter, why not just charge for air while you're flying..

      Darn.. I'm good at this.. I should run an airline!

      jegan
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    • Wed Nov 5th 13:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Is the YouTube User Experience So Poor?
      I've noticed few problems with YouTube.. But I'm not a big user.. I have however found that trying to watch the 'Fast Money' replays is just a waste of time. It's impossible to understand the dialog when it keeps stopping and buffering.

      jegan
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    • Wed Nov 5th 13:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Peabody Energy: Will Abundance of Chinese Coal Cause Price Weakness?
      I'm a fan of BTU and have owned it lately. Aside from RTP and BHP, they seem to be the best coal play for Asia. When it comes to pass that Asia begins to ramp up again, then the Asian coal story should move up again. However, it has been demonstrated that China in particular is burning poor quality coal, and that which they cannot get within their borders they are buying on the spot market out of Malaysia. This is not the high quality product that BTU, RTP and BHP provide.

      jegan ;-)
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