Urbane Gorilla!

Jon Stewart on CNBC's 'Worthlessness'

A big thanks for this post. CNBC is a laughingstock around the WEB. (There are several venues for spouting off on CNBC. Unfortunately, SeekingAlpha truncates links). I went so far as to email a cut and paste selection of them to the head of programming for CNBC. Not suprising, I didn't get a reply.

Love the comments above. You have restored my confidence in the investing public.

I particularly appreciated the comment that CNBC hosts talk over the guests and the slaps against that gasbag Kudlow. (To this day, I have no idea what mustard seeds are.) I'd like to also note that his couturiere should be taken out back and shot. Green ties, blue striped shirts with white collars? Go figure.

And a great big hand to Stewart and Colbert who have over the last couple of days lambasted CNBC with wicked brilliance.

jegan

Capitulation May Be at Hand Despite 'Low' VIX

Tired of all this bullish/bearish stuff... Thinking of being possumish for awhile.

Coffee: Looking As Good as It Smells

You need to sit down with someone that can show you how Fibonacci's work. Even if you learn nothing more, learn what a 'continuation gap' and 50% retracement mean. Ignoring technicals in this market is like driving without seatbelts. Just dumb.




On Mar 04 01:04 PM ValueInvestor wrote:

> "just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level" Did you really
> just say Fibonacci retracement level? Talk about a useless Technical
> Analysis tool.
>
> I do agree that coffee is undervalued though. To be honest, almost
> all of the Tropicals/Softs are quite cheap now.

Avalon Bay: A Look at Apartment REITs

The issue with debt faced by REITs is similar to most businesses today. It isn't really the debt if the cashflow is in place, and the property can carry the debt, and they have a **loan term that will outlast our recession. ** And that's the problem. Most commercial properties have underlying loans that are amortized 30 years, but due in 5 or 6. A few years back, I was looking at buying a 20 unit multiple. I could get a 30 due in 5 for about 5%. Pretty good. Those loans are no longer available, and if you can get one, lots of luck getting it for a rate like that. That means costs increase for the REIT. Couple that with dropping rents, and you begin to have cashflow problems, even if you can get the loan. (Look at GGP.) Once you have cashlow problems, you cut the dividend or pay in stocks, which dilutes the investor equity. When you cut the dividend or dilute the pool, the stock price drops. Ugly.

What's Happening to Citigroup?

Sorry.... I didn't really intend to be as **amazed** as many times as I stated.... jegan ;-)

What's Happening to Citigroup?

Re: "The Mexican SEC is investigating, while Banamex is unconvincingly saying that Nafta somehow overrides Mexican law and makes the stake fine."

NAFTA has had unexpected consequences for the US, Mexico and Canada. I was amazed when California banned MTBE's in gasoline as it was deemed a carcinogen and was found in greater amounts in our ground water. A Canadian company which manufactured and sold the product here, sued under NAFTA's "restriction of free trade" clause. This is the same clause that apparently allows improperly trained truck drivers in poorly maintained trucks from Mexico. In the same fashion, NAFTA has allowed companies from the US to use across the border facilities to produce products that would have a problem here under EPA guidelines. These companies have horribly polluted the areas where their factories lie.

I'm amazed to be saying it, but I think that Banamex is right. Further, Mexico may need to swing with this as they need us to regain some form of economic health if they intend to avoid bigger financial problems than they already have. Just as the American taxpayer had to swallow the banking mess, Mexico may have to as well.

Like many Congressional actions, there always seems to be a downside. (Think AMT, deregulation of power, etc... )

jegan

Some Dogs of the Dow Need Replacing

"DOGs in cheaps clothing"

U.S. Banks and the China Factor

Your statement "Ahhh, if economic policy is only so simple." sums it all up. We Americans like fast simple answers, but live in a complex, contorted world.

Thanks jegan

Dr. Doom Responds on Wells Fargo

I don't see your statement regarding Roubini as comparable to his actual quote. I suspect you read into his statement more than is actually there. If you read his statement, he says that Wells/Wachovia has major problems.How does that equate to Wells being a goner?

jegan

Your quote :" Less than a week ago, recall, he was unequivocal that the company was a goner."

Roubini quote :"Wells Fargo took over Wachovia. It doesn't work! You can't take two zombie banks, put them together, and make a strong bank. It's like having two drunks trying to keep each other standing."

For Insurance Companies, Is a Crisis Looming?

Nobody likes what's happening right now. It's like going to the dentist. Not pleasant, but necessary.

But, I'll let let you in on a secret that seems to have escaped your intellectual ramblings: The younger generation always thinks it is supporting the older generation and the younger generation, never seems to be aware of the support that they have received. I'm not a boomer, but I do recall being pissed that I had so much social security pulled from my meager paycheck to **lavish** on those wealthy retirees, riding around in their Caddies, golfing and going out to plays and great meals on my buck! Somewhere in the mix, I didn't notice that I was driving on roads, going to colleges, watching the tube and at times collecting unemployment all off the sweat of the generation that preceded me. In case you missed it in high school, it's called 'the Social Contract'. Quit whining and grow up. Saving the banking system benefits everyone, even the younger generation.

jegan


On Feb 28 01:13 AM crowdofcheerleaders wrote:

> Boomers are fuct. What I DON'T APPRECIATE is their final act of
> hubris in insisting we bail out a bunch of criminals for nothing
> in return so in order to keep their final illusion of having a TV
> commercial style retirement. It really makes me puke a little bit
> up in my mouth.
>
> Guess what Boomers, not only are you not gonna get that TV style
> retirement, but also since you insist on believing in these bailouts,
> your own kids won't be able to take care of you in your senescent
> days like you might have wanted. You have fun now.

As Banks Cut Common Stock Dividends, Look at High Yielding Preferreds

You mean preferreds like Citbank? Check the news this morning. I have been saying all along that not only are dividends under these conditions, but the value of the underlying stock will tank when dividend cuts are announced. Just common sense. Do not chase dividends in this market. You lose at both ends.

Lots of luck! jegan

Housing: Where Is the Bottom?

markg I can't answer that. I can tell you that there is a backlog of bank-owned units that are not making it to the MLPs. This has been variously explained as (1) Flood of repos too big and they can't handle the volume, (2) Banks don;t want to flood the market and drive prices lower and (3) Taking a wait and see approach pending government intervention.

My gut feeling is that many repos are sold directly by the banks to investors and may not make it into these figures. In particular I suspect that unfinished tract areas may be moved in blocks to speculative buyers. I'm not convinced that these sales are included as I presume the figures that we are presented with are MLP indexed. In my mind that means the cheapest deals are worked behind closed doors and are not counted in these reports.

jegan

On Feb 27 08:50 AM markg wrote:

> I would again ask, do the sales numbers for existing houses reflect
> that when houses are taken back by the bank these are counted as
> a "sale".
>
> I have brought this up several times, and have yet to see a SA writer
> acknowledge this.

Five Stocks for the Next Bear Market Rally

You may or may not be right, but if you read the article, all the author says is that in a bear market rally, LVS should pop. he never said that you can't hold long time, nor did he indicate anything about the financial position of the company. Personally I only like it as a trading vehicle.

jegan ;-)

On Feb 26 09:16 AM Richard Collins; Claremont, CA wrote:

> G T McDuffy,
>
> Do you know anything about LVS??
> This company is so oversold and the potential is ten-fold. Why would
> you want to do anything but buy and hold for the long term.
>
> Let me educate you :
>
> 1. The company is 70% owned by insiders. The founder of the Sands
> is one of the wealthiest men in the country.
> 2. LVS owns the largest casino in the world in Macau, the largest
> gaming area in the world (they passed up Las Vegas last year).<br/>3.
> LVS is opening in Singapore December of this year or January 2010.
>
> 4. Do you really think Las Vegas is dead?? Do you also beleive all
> politicians are honest?
> 5. You and Cramer (who also flunked out of clown school) are16 months
> too late with silly worthless journalism. Enough said.
>
> Dan Kowkabany

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Is that 'breakaway gap' at 23 on GDP possibly an 'ehaustion gap'?

Thanks for the charts. jegan

Dow Nears 50% Retracement; Tread Carefully

Re: "Anyone recall how bullish all the analysts were at the beginning
of the year? NONE of them saw the market going lower."

First, I have to say that technicals are not really meant as forecasting. If you pay more attention, you'll hear the techs say things like "If the trend fails here, the next area of resistance is here". Or they may say "If the trend continues, expect AAPL to go to here".

And secondly, many techs have talked about major corrections. In particular, I'd point to Louise Yamada. She actually did call the DOW top at 14000 years ago, and shortly after the market dropped to 12,000 told CNBC's 'Fast Money' on TV that "If the trend continues, we should see 10,000". They all got a chuckle over that. She continued with, "If we continue to decline, the next major resistance would be Dow 6000".

She has repeated this value several times and you can Google for clips of the shows to better understand not only her approach, but her cautions. Well, you can, unless you are happy misunderstanding technical analysis.

jegan ;-)


On Feb 23 05:45 PM HiSpeed wrote:

>