Urbane Gorilla!

India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets

Rakesh.... Thanks for the article. As posted above, I have been concerned at the bullish calls on India. In particular, I've noticed that Indian banks seem to be on everyone's minds (ICICI, etc...). I believe that deleveraging is invalid and your comments support my belief. Thaks for the local flavor.

As ana side, I think it was Jeff Makie of 'Fast Money' that said "It no longer is the 'BRIC' countries. Now it's only 'IC'" .... In fact, I don't see any upside to foreign markets right now. However, as they have been beaten down so much, It's hard to believe that there is that much more upside in the EEV or FXP....

jegan

100% Yields on Ecuador Bonds: A Sign of the Times

This says it better than anything i could come up with:

As Mr. Kirkpatrick notes in referring to David Dreman's research which studied 78,695 earnings forecasts by analysts over a 20 year period from 1973 to 1993 only 1 in 170 forecasts were within 5% of any four consecutive quarter's actual earnings. Why do we continue to rely on such speculation?


jegan ;-)

Emerging Markets: Ready to Rebound?

Mr. Greenstein... I think being a contrarian is fine if there is a solid reason behind the contrarian thinking. If you had said 'everything returns to its mean', or 'it'll be a pendulum', I'd at least accept your explanation. I do have to say that your explanation here doesn't make much sense to me. If it is true that:

- Decoupling is a myth
- That American equities are beginning to pick up and foreign equities are dropping
- That foreign markets and economies have been suckling at the teat of the American consumer

I just don't see how foreign countries are going to have the income to support their workers. Your argument that the workers in these countries are going to benefit from cheaper food and oil reminds me of Carly Fiorina's exhoratation that sending jobs overseas is good for the American consumer because merchandise will cost less. A recent TV expose showed a bewildered unemployed factory worker trying to explain the benefit of buying at Walmart while she was running out of unemployment insurance.

Just doesn't jive to me.... jegan ;-)

Emerging Markets Infrastructure Is Booming

You have to have a pretty good supply of Malox to invest long-term in emerging market funds. But I have been looking at infrastructure, particularly in Brazil and South America. There are a couple of interesting large So. American infrastructure plays (Cemex being one of them), but China has been more difficult to figure. Clearly for a country that is building (depending on who you listen to) one to two coal fired utilities a month, then, who are the big players here? The best I've come up with so far is Bectel, which is a private company and Siemens. Siemens is interesting as they recently installed a very high efficiency boiler (45%) in one of China's new coal-fired plants and is working on efficiency ratings inn excess of 50%. I also know that GE is trying for a foothold, but if they are at all successful, it sure isn't reflected in their stock price...

Thx jegan ;-)