Just a Hick

45 Comments

    • ON: Fri Oct 10th 09:48 AM
      Commented on:
      Who We Should Blame for This Crisis
      Want someone to blame? Look in the mirror, it is all of us.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 19:28 PM
      Commented on:
      The Beginning of the Endgame for Monetary Policy, Redux
      Oh one other thing, Dave Merkel, do you know a guy by the name of Scott Stolz? Just curious, I used to go to school with him and he's been a senior VP at a couple of insurance outfits. Thought you might know him.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 19:27 PM
      Commented on:
      The Beginning of the Endgame for Monetary Policy, Redux
      I think we will wake up monday morning to several bank failures and the stock markets-in a worlwide coordinated move will be shut down.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 8th 11:28 AM
      Commented on:
      @VIC: Leon Cooperman on "The Investing Climate & All-Weather Stocks"
      Mr. Cooperman may say America is on sale but I would call it a forced liquidation.
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    • ON: Tue Oct 7th 12:10 PM
      Commented on:
      Our Coming Depression
      The last time a government bailout worked was Chrysler in the early 80's.The warrants zoomed in value and the loans were repaid(Just for the record since you asked). However that was a company specific problem, not the systemic problem we have today due to de-leveraging.

      Your analogies to the 1920's-30's are valid, debt as a percentage of GDP are way too high. However I disagree that people are really aware of the problem and ready to accept the 'bitter' medicine. Rather we live in an entitlement society born of the new deal, and the entitlement mentality has only grown each decade with new government programs designed to help the 'needy' yet used by the middle and upper class. The most egregious of entitlements today seem to the 'right' to pay lower taxes in the guise of creating jobs for the lower classes. I think that when the reality comes home to roost that we are not as wealthy as we seem, we will see some very serious social upheaval - like riots that will make the one in LA in 1991 look like a picnic!( I am stocking up on firearms, ammo and fire extinguishers)
      True value destruction has yet to be seen from the coming calamity. I think your projection of Dow are far too generous. If we see massive store closings, we will see concurrent retail store bankruptcies. Try to picture a world without either Lowes or Home Depot, Target, Bed Bath and Beyond, Whole Foods. Picture lots of malls with empty store fronts and therefore lots of bankrupt REITS. GGP will be the first to go followed by many others like SPG, CBL, MAC.
      As an investor your guide should be to look to the bond markets. In the deflationary environment that we will soon face, its better to have a contract guaranteeing repayment and secured by assets than a residual equity interest.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 08:57 AM
      Commented on:
      Dollar Soars
      This is really faith in the LIQUIDITY of the 30 day T-bill.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 18:31 PM
      Commented on:
      The Road to the (Financial) Final Four
      I want to see that Wells Fargo - Federal Reserve game. I 'll take wells and give 5.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 22nd 10:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Bond Outlook in Light of the Treasury Plan
      I agree with your prognosis, Treasury debt yields will explode because of this plan, the level of borrowing is unprecedented. I think we are also looking at a downgrade of the US credit rating as already evidenced by CDS rates on US debt. Next to come will be a crowding out affect in the debt markets, further increases in rates on ARM mortgages causing further defaults, and a run on the dollar.
      I look out the window at my neighborhood and honestly think that a year form now,1/3 to 1/2 of these homes will be empty.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 22nd 10:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Oppose the Treasury's Bailout Plan
      If this plan should pass, I hope congress ads a few provisos:
      1) Any institution seeking help shall reduce the senior executives salaries to 50% of what the treasury secretary is being paid and they shall forfeit all present and future equity interests in the companies the run until the assets they convey to treasury are sold off by treasury.
      2) Impeachment proceedings be immediately taken against the President of the US because of gross malfeasance.
      3) The current treasury secretary should be removed. Put Warren Buffet in charge!
      4) The ban on short selling be removed and never be allowed again. Restore the uptick rule.
      5) Eliminate all hedge funds.
      6) No member current or future of the SEC, Treasury, CFTC,et al. be allowed to work for any company over which they had oversight(they probably wouldn't want to because of #1 above).
      5)The federal government be given the right to future equity in any institution that participates in the bailout equivalent to the loss the government takes ion any paper they buy and subsequently resell.

      That's just a few off of the top of my head.Give me a day, I can think of more.But bottom line this 'rescue' is atrocious on so many fronts, one could write a book(already has been,its called Atlas Shrugged). Unfortunately if this is enacted we'll see that " The operation was successful, the patient unfortunately died"
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    • ON: Fri Sep 19th 14:26 PM
      Commented on:
      It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention
      First it was "save Bear Stearns and save the world" then it was "save Fannie and Freddie and save the world" now we seem to be at the point where it's "save the world and save the world".
      My question is who do we have to save next to save the world?
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    • ON: Fri Sep 19th 11:39 AM
      Commented on:
      The Real Reason Behind the Global Financial Crisis
      Well if you haven't heard about the CDS mess until this article I have to ask: Where have you been? Risks from CDS's and specifically counterparty risk have been written about all over the place.
      What really has to be done here to somehow cure this problem is regulation and transparency.
      CDS's are an insurance product pure and simple and should have therefore been regulated by state insurance commissioners. Also the "insurable interest" doctrine should have been enforced(You can only buy a CDS if you are holding a bond that needs insurance). Following this doctrine along with proper reserving for the underlying risk would have limited this market to about 10% of its present size and may have prevented the crises we are in now. The author is correct in that any future derivative instrument should be ok'd by regulatory authorities before they are issued.I think Paulson hinted at this during his press conference this morning when he said the present regulatory environment is antiquated compared to the complexity of today's markets.
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    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 10:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Being Contrarian and Thinking of Buying
      Just one more thing to add, the more scared you are, the more likely it's time to buy stocks.That works most of the time.
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    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 10:56 AM
      Commented on:
      Being Contrarian and Thinking of Buying
      The rationale for stocks being down 10% - 50% is fear. And that's not rational!
      Google at 400 might be a good buy(Good bye house ,good bye boat, good bye car!), if you think they will continue to post continuing growth in sales and eps as they have in the past. But I have to wonder how current conditions will affect online ad spending.I don't think it will be good.
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    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 10:51 AM
      Commented on:
      Market Panic: 7 Notes and Opportunities
      Isn't tomorrow triple witching day when option and futures contracts expire?(By the way , what's the third part?) Any thoughts on what effect this will have on stock, commodity and bond prices tomorrow? I'm especially curious as to the effect on the metals markets given the rather large run up yesterday.
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    • ON: Thu Sep 11th 11:33 AM
      Commented on:
      The Doom & Gloom of Lehman Brothers
      Steve,

      Once you again you offer very sound analysis. You have a bright future ahead of you if the US survives this financial debacle.
      View article »
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