Just a Hick

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    • Fri Jul 18th 12:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In the Cat Bird Seat: A Review of Emcore’s Business
      A few comments: 1)Basing analysis solely on information gleaned from message boards and bloggers is very dangerous,use some fundamental analysis.The financial statements are horrible,operating margins suck compared to other PV companies.They may be debt free but only thanks to massive dilution of current shareholders' stake in the company.Balance sheet has a lot of goodwill and intangibles that should be written down soon if substantial revenue acceleration is not seen.
      2)Contracts with WWAT aren't worth the paper they're printed on.Period.
      3)To reach the conclusion that substantially all of the short interest is naked is wrong.Mutual funds are free to loan their shares out(and I wouldn't be surprised if Quercus loaned theirs out or shorted against the box).Also of the approximately 54 million shares held by institutions,10% are held by index funds.They don't do research into the company, they're just trying to replicate an index.
      4)Of the insiders holding stock, the one that really matters is Hong Hou,CEO and he only has 118,000 shares after selling half his position last December at a price almost3X where its trading today.
      5) Quercus the big inside holder has large holdings in similar questionable companies.I haven't researched their cost basis in EMKR or any other companies in their portfolio, I don't want to because I've done enough homework to realize this stock is nothing more than a long shot gamble, and I'd have just as much luck laying money down on who would win the Super Bowl next year.
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    • Wed Jul 16th 15:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Implementing Pickens' Plan for Public Energy Policy
      One more thing about Pickens Plan and using nat gas for cars, what happens if you run out of fuel on the highway? Exactly what type of container do you have to tote along as you walk to a filling station to get what you need to get your car to a station and how would you transfer lng or cng from that container to your car?
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    • Wed Jul 16th 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Implementing Pickens' Plan for Public Energy Policy
      Bellard,

      I don't think you get what I mean about range.
      I don't mind waiting 10 minutes for a charge but that charge has to last me 300 miles-in 4WD.That means a lot of power.Go out to Utah Badlands/Canyonlands or Flattops wilderness in Colorado.You don't find gas stations behind every elk! Also think of power consumption when you're hauling a four horse trailer.Electric will not get you there and back.Granted these are a few extreme examples but how do people get their boats out to Lake Powell? Ever travel I-70 through Utah? There's a 160 mile stretch with absolutely no services.
      What I'm saying is that electric would kill a lot of the Outdoor rec industry if range didn't increase dramatically.You also have to remember that outdoor enthusiasts require a lot more power,on average from their vehicles.You want to put electric refueling stations out in the boonies, you have to start stringing a lot more power lines.
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    • Wed Jul 16th 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Implementing Pickens' Plan for Public Energy Policy
      Actually Big rigs can run on natural gas and CLNE has been approached by several regional/local haul trucking companies about converting their fleets and using their stations. Conversion kits for diesel to nat. gas are available from a company called Westport Innovations(WPVIF.PK)
      Mr. Ellard the one concern I have about electric engines is range. I , like you, am an avid outdoorsman(I would like be out hiking right now instead of in front of my keyboard but hey its earnings season and its time to harvest), as such I spend a lot of time in my 4wd pickup far from any conventional fueling stations.So far, I have yet to see any electric engine with a decent range that will get me out to the backcountry and let me roam. I don't see that kind of problem with a nat. gas engine.Thus my own self interest would favor the nat. gas solution.
      I like your concept of well to wheel efficiency,never thought of it that way.In this regard piping cng or lng to refueling staions rather than trucking gas would seem to be a benefit,but I wonder how that comparison would work out when pipeline construction costs are factored in. Also what are the energy and site requirements for compression/liqueficat... facilities vs. oil refineries and the potential output of each?
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    • Thu Jul 10th 10:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Look at Four Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers' Funding
      Iomagens,Press-Tekians... Solarfanians.....
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    • Wed Jul 2nd 18:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Some Solar Companies Face a Cash Crunch?
      Everyone criticizing this author, I recommend you read a book titled Business Fairy Tales by Cecil Jackson.He will point out to you the danger of investing in a company that reports large profits but at the same time reports huge operating cash flow losses.
      The author makes a very good point about this industry. I was lucky/prescient that I closed my positions in solar just as we had huge debt and equity financings by this sector a couple of weeks ago.You can usually take it to the bank that after large round of financings are completed in a sector all at once, that sector goes down.I would look for further declines especially in ENER.
      Say what you want about me, that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
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    • Wed Jun 25th 10:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Universal Insurance Holdings: A Worthy Speculative Play
      You kleave a lot out for an analysis of an insurance company in the state of Florida.
      Lets start with the all important measures of profitability :underwriting ratios,loss ratios and combined ratios.What is their potential loss exposure in the event of a hurricane? How much risk do they lay off through reinsurance and how does the state insurance fund back them up in the event of a catastrophe?
      Nice basic analysis, I actually bought and sold this company back in '06-'07and made a nice return but didn't see the wide moat that WB so often talks about.It's a nice little small cap good for a trade now and then and now may seem like a decent entry point but I'll wait for hurricane season to blow over first.
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    • Thu Jun 19th 16:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can Offshore Drilling Bring Down Gas Prices?
      Everyone seems to forget that less money spent on foreign oil also has an effect on the value of the dollar.Ceteris paribus, we would see an increase in the value of the dollar,and hence a further lowering of oil prices.
      Also consider that OPEC, being a cartel, will start producing more before additional home production comes on stream in order to: 1)maximize present value of their reserves,and 2) decrease the price of oil and thus lower projected returns to domestic oil producers thus decreasing economic incentives to explore at home.
      Yet yesterday we have Brack Obymymama, saying that drilling offshore wouldn't solve anything till 5 years out. Ok, Brak, then tell me:1) What do you propose to do that will, the first day you take office, lower the pain at the pump? and 2) Why you would rather have America keep sending its money to people who would like to see us suffer? and 3) What do you seem to know that we don't that 5 years from now additional domestic oil production won't be needed?
      And here's a reason to get excited about offshore drilling: It's an unknown quantity, and could be much bigger than any of the estimates out there.For an example look to offshore Brazil.
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    • Tue Jun 17th 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling Some Yingli and Trina Solar on Dead Cat Bounce
      Jack,

      In my book you're the greatest! Thanks to your last post, I loaded up on CSIQ and TSL call options. Having a great day today.Keep up the good work, you're analysis is very sound and thorough. How about giving an opinion on Day Star Technologies?
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    • Thu Jun 5th 12:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: The Lying Lemon Lemming Anecdotal Timeline?
      Reggie,

      I am a member of your site but I find the layout a little odd and user unfriendly,not a dig at you just a user feedback comment.Now on to the real reason I write:I have noticed that in the July contract month for LEH, there are call and put contracts with strike prices as low as $2.50.There is also a large(in my opinion) open interest in some of these put contracts-17000 in the 10's and 46000 in the 20's. I find this a little curious that there are contracts so far out of the money and that there is so much activity in them.Even in the June expiration,there are contracts at 17.50 with open interest at almost 17000.
      I recall reading a SA article a while back that there was a request to the options exchanges to open up far out of the money put contracts on BSC shortly before the bottom fell out on them.Something similar seems to be happening here.I don't know when trading in these contracts on LEH(also similarly priced contracts on MS) started,but doesn't a special request to the exchanges have to made to open up contracts so far out of the money? Any way you or I can figure out when those requests were made?
      The mere fact that these contracts are out there and the level of trading that is occurring tells my LEH and/or MS geese are about to get cooked,or am I reading too much into this? Given my risk tolerance I am considering taking positions in far out of the money July's,could be a great way to make a killing if what you have been writing about the 2 companies truly starts to manifest in street perception. BTW today we have a fed governor criticizing bailout of BSC and saying next time we will have to let a big I-bank fail.So if LEH or MS do get into real trouble,we could see 0 on their stock price.I like shorts that go to 0!
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    • Tue Jun 3rd 09:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Supply-Side Fairy Tales
      If 25% is good wouldn't 15% be even better?Why not 10% 0r even 5%? Heck let's just eliminate the darned thing!
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    • Mon May 26th 17:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?
      Dear Mr. Yetiv,

      Can you give me your opinion of DSTI?
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 23rd 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Market Indicating Another Apple Disappointment?
      Volume without price data is meaningless. If you had provided the change in implied volatility along with open interest, you might have something worthwhile to the readership. Currently implied volatility is below historic, rather rare just before an earnings release. This would imply to me that the market thinks there won't be any surprise in AAPL's earnings announcement. On the other hand, if you like earnings plays, this looks like a good strangle play ahead of earnings.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 13:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Let's Get Real About Bear Stearns
      Prieur,

      This is the soundest piece of reasoning I have read on the Fed Bailout of BSC. I love reading your articles on SA,please keep contributing.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Crox Could Rise on Piper's Inventory Comments
      Piper must be drinking the same koolaid. Inventory has gone sky high to almost 40% of total assets.The turnover ratio is going to be terrible going forward. Plus if they see any sort of sales slowdown then the margins will compact like you won't believe-I think gross margins will hit the mid thirties for this year.Their cash generation doesn't even begin to match the net income they book.They employ aggressive accounting practices and lease all their facilities.This means if a cash crunch comes, they have nothing to borrow against- and I do think a cash crunch is going to hit these guys this year.Bottom line,the stock is heading south of $10.
      View article »
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