Frogman

12 Comments

    • The Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking [view article]
      Schiff you must provide evidence and fact. The article has very little sound data and furthermore your dooms days scenario is uninspiring since this is your only position for decades...(even a broken clock is right twice a day) Now I am not disagreeing with you but clearly the Fed will eventually bail the economy out but the dollar will suffer in its wake. May 16 01:03 PM
    • Walking Away: The Next Mortgage Crisis [view article]
      JJ I am a landlord to...This should make you feel secure because the renter now has 'no other options' than to rent...they will certainly pay you because the next stop is the streets...also my rent is half of what thier mortgage was ....so they are automatically beginning to save. You are now the hero... People will always screw you in the business, part of it, if you haven't been screwed yet you haven't been doing it long enough. Avoiding it takes experience but even then it is managed risk like anything else...also people make a vow in marriage and now most are divorced...over 50% ...do you fault them the same way? Isn't that a more serious morality issue (if we are really chosing to play morality or contract police!?!?! ) Hardly...I think I made my point...so fast forward...home prices will continue to be slammed till 2009 and 50/50 chance they stabilize with no "cataylst" to rise ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANKS TIGHTENING CREDIT!!! They won't lend you five dollares now!!..As a result we will flatline like the 8o's for 5-10 years just to be teed up for the Social Security and Health Care crisis which is like a hurricane forming off of the coast of Africa but it is already a CAT 5 ....we will be forced once again to print a ton of dollars making it totally worthless but I am hoping that our manufacturing will go crazy and we will be at the cusp of a secondary industrial revolution because of our worthless dollar..BTW which is why Buffet bought BNI he trades ahead 5 years....that is the only positive that I can draw at this point.... Apr 20 04:18 PM
    • Walking Away: The Next Mortgage Crisis [view article]
      FINALLY SOMEONE ELSE WHO GETS IT!!! I have been POUNDING THE TABLE ON THIS VERY ISSUE BUT NOBODY WILL LISTEN!! 70% of our economy is proped up by the homeowner who mortgaged thier house to buy a hummer, max out thier credit cards and then walk away. I know PRIME BORROWERS (MAKING 250k /year!) with 700+ credit who rented before they walked away so their credit won't get nailed before they were foreclosed on....that is how they are doing it (To the person who asked) ..don't believe me or the article???....listen to Wachovia's and BOFA's conference call last quarter...WE HAVE JUST BEGUN the PRIME MESS!!!!!!!!!!!
      RECOVERY ABSOLUTE BS!!!! This is a trading market that started on APRIL fools..."suckers rally" we will get some relief but nothing in the economic cards or otherwise suggest that we are headed to an or even stabilizing.... People just don't get what is happening....GREAT ARTICLE!!       Apr 19 05:27 PM
    • Eurozone Inflation Likely a Record 3.4% in March [view article]
      The Economist talks about this last week...in a round about way...the ECB should cut rates to avoid inflation ( know this is counter intuitive but stay with me here).. Oil and Commodities have been flooded because of the plunging dollar...the ECB's refusal to cut rates (which is certainly justified considering the rising credit risk) will bring the Euro back to earth and strenghten the dollar..this will should cause people to move out of the commodities...This will give some relief to oil and food in the short run...there is evidence of this "safety" trade in commodiites with the recent deleveraging that was implemented last week...why? The ECB has a chance to lead us out but I am afraid they don't understand this either....my two cents... Mar 31 10:05 PM
    • Are REIT's Fairly Valued? [view article]
      Huge insider selling on these REITS (days/weeks ago)...HORRIBLE balance sheets..ex: check out GGP ...further dilutive activity because of the freeze in credit markets...REITS issuing more stock (article WSJ yesterday) they have not taken any impairments (inevitable) (check out the MIT Index of Commercial RE Index)
      ....lending has not come back and count on tighter restriction more equity........I have not seen an opportunity like this in a long time....risk/reward is there....pay more attention to ROA...

      I own SRS and adding to position here...       Mar 28 09:12 AM
    • Citigroup Bottoming - Plus Some Free Advice for Meredith Whitney [view article]
      TO THE WOODSHED !!!!!!! Mar 04 04:51 PM
    • The Fed Won't Save Us, But Here's How to Make Money - Barron's Interview with Jeremy Grantham [view article]
      On Bears:
      We have a bunch of bears coming out of the woods...its like telling us that we are in a recession....really!?!... Wow good job! Did the housing market for the last year tip you off? I love the prophets....Now don't get me wrong I am not getting my bull saddle ready and I still think that there is pain but the gloom and doomers are really getting on my nerves...if you keep saying the same thing (that we are collapsing) for 20 years then you know what?? you are probably going to be right (at some point in the cycle)....the market does correct...hell even a broken clock is right twice a day!!..CNBC and the others should start covering (how we get out of this mess) not tell us what we already know...       Feb 11 07:52 PM
    • Monoline Tsunami Aimed at European Banks [view article]
      Look no further than the credit spread increase on the creditex.com...itraxx 5 Yr Crossover...up over 21% this WEEK!! Parabolic move...The ECB's typical "clueless" response to this tsunami that you have pointed to is like when the US was bombing Iraq and that "war minister" said that 'he had America right where he wanted them' as his building was being targeted by a US made Tomahawk...:o) I love it!!...I am short the FXB (British Pound) because of impending rate cuts by "Tricky" the frenchman....but looking for another "surfboard" like play to ride this wave any suggestions?

      Feb 10 06:42 PM
    • Yahoo Rejects Microsoft’s Bid [view article]
      Ice: I see your point but disagree because the difference is that when you go shopping for a car you have countless alternatives. Yang has one REAL buyer (with cash and credit to do a deal in this economic climate) GOOG can't for obvious reasons and the dark cloud over all of this is the economy which will ultimatly limit the buyer pool. A tight credit market and the down draft still to come from the housing bubble is at hand and I can assure you that MSFT is in no hurry. They have waited over a year already.... So now Yang has "rejected" one of the only real buyers (from a cash and credit standpoint) in the market. GOOG foolishly is screaming anti-trust so if YAHOO teams with GOOG do you think MSFT won't say the same thing? (GOOG should have kept their mouths shut) If I were Yang I would have slow played MSFT and GOOG to get the sweetest deal without a "rejection".... I don't feel Yang is in a position to call anyones bluff... So now that Yang has said "NO" if I were MSFT I would tell Yahoo to 'pound sand' and turn Yang over to his shareholders to get eaten alive after Yahoo's share price plummets....(If I were a shareholder I would be out now!) --- GOOG's position--If GOOG trys to cut a deal with Yang, MSFT will fight it and it will either blow up or be in court for years. Also GOOG could certainly now take advantage of YAHOO, since I believe MSFT will not counter, putting YAHOO in an even worse position and now at the mercy of the very people that have destroyed Yahoo (GOOG) (Oh interesting how GOOG never mentions that)....along with Yangs help of course. Either way Yang will still have to face disappointed shareholders who will then be in full on "witch hunt" mode with axes and torches! Bottom line: considering the economy, credit maket, Yangs performance so far he was in no position to 'blow out' any deal and this posturing is plain stupid!!!! Keeping everyone at the table was the best option and ultimately the shareholders will be the one to suffer. I would have rather Yang announced that they are considering several offers which may have prompted more buzz and showed that he was calculating his risks and taking his time to evaluate the fate of his company. If I were a shareholder as Steve Miller said...."take your money and run"...I hope I am wrong but Yang hasn't done anything to date to lead me to think otherwise... Feb 10 05:57 PM
    • Yahoo Rejects Microsoft’s Bid [view article]
      THIS IS HUGE NEWS and risky for Yahoo's CEO!!! He has destroyed the value of the company and everyone is aware of this fact. The only alternative that he has (which probably has been worked out already) is to partner with GOOG. He is NOT in a position to play games and he will have a small 'coup' on his hands if he doesn't come out with something this week!!! Shareholders won't stand for more poor guidance look for lawsuits if nothing happens. I have a feeling a deal with GOOG has already been reached in principle (Very speculative just a gut feeling considering the situation and the fact that he is 'under the microscope')...the play is buy Yahoo on a pull back (if any) as well as pick up some GOOG...either way an interesting week for the Nasdaq to come... Feb 09 04:04 PM
    • What the Housing 'Apocalypse' Prophets Aren't Revealing [view article]
      "What people who DON'T 'know' about the market"---see above article...Another person who doesn't know what they are talking about... Ben I encourage you to push away from your computor and call some lenders, agents, tax attorneys in CA and Florida...charts are great but you are WAY off...Mortgage Apps are up sure...talk to any lender and they will tell you that they have denied more APS than they ever have...with housing prices declining along with credit tightening it is a double wammy. Also if you were truely convicted then you would be long...I am short will continue to be short the financials and homebuilders...there will be massive HB consolidation to come so be careful of the "National" builder shorts do your homework...the 'second tier' builders are in serious trouble! Feb 06 10:36 AM
    • Wal-Mart's Guidance Shows No Sign of Slow-Down, Good for Investors [view article]
      Also another note...WMT has implemented a "scanner" at the door policy. People returning items are required to scan and label their items before going to customer service for a refund...after talking to the customer service rep she said that 'I wouldn't believe the things that people pull in "bringing back" in-store items and theft', .....look for the "door scanner" at your local Wal Mart....should be nationwide soon if not already....I think positive moves like this by management continue to add to the story...

      I do not own WMT (yet).....       Jan 13 04:40 PM
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