Frogman's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/138586/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/131531-citigroup-s-horrible-conference-call?source=feed#comment-469093 469093 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 22:20:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124623-berkshire-hathaway-proof-that-the-cds-market-is-irrational?source=feed#comment-418521 418521 Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:57:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120751-bill-introduced-to-reinstate-the-uptick-rule?source=feed#comment-391318 391318
During the "Great Crash of 29" there was no uptick rule...THAT WAS NOT THE REASON IT CRASHED....It happened over several weeks when bankers CALLED ALL MARGINS IN!!!! This is WELL documented....The uptick rule would have made NO DIFFERENCE back then and it didn't due squat when they banned "short selling" on the bank last year!!! Pull up the bank charts there is your evidence if you still don't believe ....so ignorance once again takes firm hold of the novice and slaps them around....

The real crime is naked short selling...there are rules in place!!!! THEY HAVE THEM!!! But the SEC like every other regulatory body is 'captured'...not a conpiracy theorist but a realist...they need to enforce the current laws....there is just nobody with enough balls to do it....

The banks were sold short because the people who study them and do their homework realized they were insolvent....the 'buy and holders' were taught a lesson....DO YOUR HOMEWORK because if you don't ---the people who aren't mindless putting their money into the market will sell it for you.....enough already on blaming the shorts.....

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 21:00:07 -0500
During the "Great Crash of 29" there was no uptick rule...THAT WAS NOT THE REASON IT CRASHED....It happened over several weeks when bankers CALLED ALL MARGINS IN!!!! This is WELL documented....The uptick rule would have made NO DIFFERENCE back then and it didn't due squat when they banned "short selling" on the bank last year!!! Pull up the bank charts there is your evidence if you still don't believe ....so ignorance once again takes firm hold of the novice and slaps them around....

The real crime is naked short selling...there are rules in place!!!! THEY HAVE THEM!!! But the SEC like every other regulatory body is 'captured'...not a conpiracy theorist but a realist...they need to enforce the current laws....there is just nobody with enough balls to do it....

The banks were sold short because the people who study them and do their homework realized they were insolvent....the 'buy and holders' were taught a lesson....DO YOUR HOMEWORK because if you don't ---the people who aren't mindless putting their money into the market will sell it for you.....enough already on blaming the shorts.....

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115275-8-important-facts-about-the-federal-reserve?source=feed#comment-361376 361376
If you are in the financial arena and you "think" you know something about the federal reserve and have not seen the following video.....you are only fooling yourself....

video.google.com/video...

Well done Jeff

]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:26:29 -0500
If you are in the financial arena and you "think" you know something about the federal reserve and have not seen the following video.....you are only fooling yourself....

video.google.com/video...

Well done Jeff

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115446-no-good-reason-to-invest-in-banks-right-now?source=feed#comment-361359 361359 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:09:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103849-the-upcoming-g-20-meeting-bretton-woods-ii?source=feed#comment-298293 298293 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:52:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103445-october-finale-trick-or-treat?source=feed#comment-296431 296431 Art Cashin has been looking for the Woossh which we never got in October...somehow "this is different"...ha right! There is more pain to come.

Take for example, In California many areas are experiencing 40% drop in home values from last year to this year. (See data from National Association of Realtors by zipcode) .>>YES 40%

People can't sell (to upside down), nobody will buy (because it isn't the bottom) and who the hell will be left (even after it bottoms) to pick up the great deals? Anyone who bought in the past 5 years has bought! So with tighter lending standards to boot the problem is that very few will qualify.

Next Quarters GDP will make history and this slide will continue in a bad bad cycle that will build on itself. (Roubini is right BTW) JPMC just came out with a 'mortgage plan' and so did the FDIC after taking over WAMU and how do you save some? That is like having two children drowning but you only have time to save one who are you going to save...?>! Either way you won't be able to live with yourself after the fact. In many cases (read the article) the FDIC couldn't negotiate until a homeowner is behind on their payments so there is a total incentive to not pay! Truly troubling!

Those who stepped into the market this past week will feel some real pain because this is by no means is over. Those of us who patiently wait will be rewarded for nothing has changed relative to transparency and information flow from these banks and mortgage market. In summary, THE CONSUMER IS AGAINST THE ROPES AND THERE IS NOBODY TO CALL THE FIGHT! Already we have heard of politicians allowing people access to their 401k's...which they do have the ability to draw from now but there are no more home equities to draw from, no credit cards to max out (see AMX call -highest delinquencies, and charge off's expected to get worse) so where will the consumer go to get cash? (The only place is the market if they have anything left)

So what catalysts do the bulls see on the horizon? "its cheap" I hear...yea relative to what ?!? An over leveraged consumer!!! If the market is forward looking (6months+) do you really think that we will be outta this in 6 months? Or even 9? Most economist (even the conservative ones) have said that we are in for a SERIOUS recession and yet we ignore the flashing red lights...take for instance our currecny?!? RECORD appreciation after the FED swelling its balance sheet in 30 days by 1 TRILLION dollars?!?! Is this stable? Hardly... perhaps the parallel can be drawn from an interview with an fellow Navy SEAL when he was asked, "How are the SEAL's so good?" He responds intuitively, " its not that the SEAL's are that good its just everyone else sucks!" Perhaps his wisdom applies here to the dollar.....either way keep your powder dry and don't be a hero. Live to fight another day...

]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:17:30 -0500 Art Cashin has been looking for the Woossh which we never got in October...somehow "this is different"...ha right! There is more pain to come.

Take for example, In California many areas are experiencing 40% drop in home values from last year to this year. (See data from National Association of Realtors by zipcode) .>>YES 40%

People can't sell (to upside down), nobody will buy (because it isn't the bottom) and who the hell will be left (even after it bottoms) to pick up the great deals? Anyone who bought in the past 5 years has bought! So with tighter lending standards to boot the problem is that very few will qualify.

Next Quarters GDP will make history and this slide will continue in a bad bad cycle that will build on itself. (Roubini is right BTW) JPMC just came out with a 'mortgage plan' and so did the FDIC after taking over WAMU and how do you save some? That is like having two children drowning but you only have time to save one who are you going to save...?>! Either way you won't be able to live with yourself after the fact. In many cases (read the article) the FDIC couldn't negotiate until a homeowner is behind on their payments so there is a total incentive to not pay! Truly troubling!

Those who stepped into the market this past week will feel some real pain because this is by no means is over. Those of us who patiently wait will be rewarded for nothing has changed relative to transparency and information flow from these banks and mortgage market. In summary, THE CONSUMER IS AGAINST THE ROPES AND THERE IS NOBODY TO CALL THE FIGHT! Already we have heard of politicians allowing people access to their 401k's...which they do have the ability to draw from now but there are no more home equities to draw from, no credit cards to max out (see AMX call -highest delinquencies, and charge off's expected to get worse) so where will the consumer go to get cash? (The only place is the market if they have anything left)

So what catalysts do the bulls see on the horizon? "its cheap" I hear...yea relative to what ?!? An over leveraged consumer!!! If the market is forward looking (6months+) do you really think that we will be outta this in 6 months? Or even 9? Most economist (even the conservative ones) have said that we are in for a SERIOUS recession and yet we ignore the flashing red lights...take for instance our currecny?!? RECORD appreciation after the FED swelling its balance sheet in 30 days by 1 TRILLION dollars?!?! Is this stable? Hardly... perhaps the parallel can be drawn from an interview with an fellow Navy SEAL when he was asked, "How are the SEAL's so good?" He responds intuitively, " its not that the SEAL's are that good its just everyone else sucks!" Perhaps his wisdom applies here to the dollar.....either way keep your powder dry and don't be a hero. Live to fight another day...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102774-cds-the-less-you-know-the-worse-they-look?source=feed#comment-293918 293918
What I do have a problem with is that there is no "Vetting" or regulation as to the creditworthyness of either counter party and that no reserves are kept to or regulated to pay-off these hedges or "bets" that have now blown up....i.e. Lehman, AIG, etc..... To thee extent that they are good instruments (which I agree to in principle) but the financial orgy that ensued along with the TOTAL disregard for risk management is absolutely ridiculous! That is why CDS gets a bad name....if you feel that the CDS market is being unjustly blamed perhaps someone from "Market it " should have grown a pair and rasied some concerns. ]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 20:57:04 -0400
What I do have a problem with is that there is no "Vetting" or regulation as to the creditworthyness of either counter party and that no reserves are kept to or regulated to pay-off these hedges or "bets" that have now blown up....i.e. Lehman, AIG, etc..... To thee extent that they are good instruments (which I agree to in principle) but the financial orgy that ensued along with the TOTAL disregard for risk management is absolutely ridiculous! That is why CDS gets a bad name....if you feel that the CDS market is being unjustly blamed perhaps someone from "Market it " should have grown a pair and rasied some concerns. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72891-walking-away-the-next-mortgage-crisis?source=feed#comment-153717 153717 Sun, 20 Apr 2008 16:18:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72891-walking-away-the-next-mortgage-crisis?source=feed#comment-153486 153486 RECOVERY ABSOLUTE BS!!!! This is a trading market that started on APRIL fools..."suckers rally" we will get some relief but nothing in the economic cards or otherwise suggest that we are headed to an or even stabilizing.... People just don't get what is happening....GREAT ARTICLE!! ]]> Sat, 19 Apr 2008 17:27:13 -0400 RECOVERY ABSOLUTE BS!!!! This is a trading market that started on APRIL fools..."suckers rally" we will get some relief but nothing in the economic cards or otherwise suggest that we are headed to an or even stabilizing.... People just don't get what is happening....GREAT ARTICLE!! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70580-eurozone-inflation-likely-a-record-3-4-in-march?source=feed#comment-134378 134378 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:05:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70345-are-reit-s-fairly-valued?source=feed#comment-132907 132907 ....lending has not come back and count on tighter restriction more equity........I have not seen an opportunity like this in a long time....risk/reward is there....pay more attention to ROA...

I own SRS and adding to position here...]]> Fri, 28 Mar 2008 09:12:59 -0400 ....lending has not come back and count on tighter restriction more equity........I have not seen an opportunity like this in a long time....risk/reward is there....pay more attention to ROA...

I own SRS and adding to position here...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67035-citigroup-bottoming-plus-some-free-advice-for-meredith-whitney?source=feed#comment-122120 122120 Tue, 04 Mar 2008 16:51:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63969-the-fed-won-t-save-us-but-here-s-how-to-make-money-barron-s-interview-with-jeremy-grantham?source=feed#comment-115772 115772 We have a bunch of bears coming out of the woods...its like telling us that we are in a recession....really!?!... Wow good job! Did the housing market for the last year tip you off? I love the prophets....Now don't get me wrong I am not getting my bull saddle ready and I still think that there is pain but the gloom and doomers are really getting on my nerves...if you keep saying the same thing (that we are collapsing) for 20 years then you know what?? you are probably going to be right (at some point in the cycle)....the market does correct...hell even a broken clock is right twice a day!!..CNBC and the others should start covering (how we get out of this mess) not tell us what we already know...]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:52:46 -0500 We have a bunch of bears coming out of the woods...its like telling us that we are in a recession....really!?!... Wow good job! Did the housing market for the last year tip you off? I love the prophets....Now don't get me wrong I am not getting my bull saddle ready and I still think that there is pain but the gloom and doomers are really getting on my nerves...if you keep saying the same thing (that we are collapsing) for 20 years then you know what?? you are probably going to be right (at some point in the cycle)....the market does correct...hell even a broken clock is right twice a day!!..CNBC and the others should start covering (how we get out of this mess) not tell us what we already know...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63899-monoline-tsunami-aimed-at-european-banks?source=feed#comment-115580 115580
]]> Sun, 10 Feb 2008 18:42:43 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63850-yahoo-rejects-microsofts-bid?source=feed#comment-115573 115573 GOOG) (Oh interesting how GOOG never mentions that)....along with Yangs help of course. Either way Yang will still have to face disappointed shareholders who will then be in full on "witch hunt" mode with axes and torches! Bottom line: considering the economy, credit maket, Yangs performance so far he was in no position to 'blow out' any deal and this posturing is plain stupid!!!! Keeping everyone at the table was the best option and ultimately the shareholders will be the one to suffer. I would have rather Yang announced that they are considering several offers which may have prompted more buzz and showed that he was calculating his risks and taking his time to evaluate the fate of his company. If I were a shareholder as Steve Miller said...."take your money and run"...I hope I am wrong but Yang hasn't done anything to date to lead me to think otherwise...]]> Sun, 10 Feb 2008 17:57:36 -0500 GOOG) (Oh interesting how GOOG never mentions that)....along with Yangs help of course. Either way Yang will still have to face disappointed shareholders who will then be in full on "witch hunt" mode with axes and torches! Bottom line: considering the economy, credit maket, Yangs performance so far he was in no position to 'blow out' any deal and this posturing is plain stupid!!!! Keeping everyone at the table was the best option and ultimately the shareholders will be the one to suffer. I would have rather Yang announced that they are considering several offers which may have prompted more buzz and showed that he was calculating his risks and taking his time to evaluate the fate of his company. If I were a shareholder as Steve Miller said...."take your money and run"...I hope I am wrong but Yang hasn't done anything to date to lead me to think otherwise...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63850-yahoo-rejects-microsofts-bid?source=feed#comment-115429 115429 Sat, 09 Feb 2008 16:04:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63150-what-the-housing-apocalypse-prophets-aren-t-revealing?source=feed#comment-114875 114875 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 10:36:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59921-wal-mart-s-guidance-shows-no-sign-of-slow-down-good-for-investors?source=feed#comment-110007 110007
I do not own WMT (yet).....]]> Sun, 13 Jan 2008 16:40:08 -0500
I do not own WMT (yet).....]]>