ockham

http://www.ockhamresearch.com
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9 Comments

    • Tue Nov 11th 16:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      This Market Is One of Opportunity
      tsinvest,

      You missed the purpose of the price-to-peak earnings, this serves the to smooth erratic earnings results. It is a little known fact that corporate earnings are actually more volatile than stock prices, historically speaking. So, since a equity is a claim to all future cash flows and not just the next quarter's cash flow we think this smoothed valuation metric is more enlightening than just a standard P/E.

      For a much better explanation of why price-to-peak can be a valuable metric check out that link to John Hussman's website above.

      Thanks.


      On Nov 11 01:23 PM tsinvest wrote:

      > 11 P/E could rise if earnings drop over the next few months. As
      > a result, stock prices would have to drop to give us an 11 P/E Market
      > Opportunity again. I guess my point is P/E's move - they are not
      > static.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Value Investors Could Do Far Worse Than Apple
      TimboM: Thanks for your advice, but I get paid by the word. Its all about dragging out conclusions and running in circles in the blogging business. Haha, just playing...thanks for reading.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 12:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sentiment and Valuation: Little Not to Like in This Market
      Smarty_Pants: You point is also well received. You are correct that the statistic used when discussing the price to peak earnings multiple is only referencing about 20 years, which has been a relatively steady bull market, and thus may not give a full representation through bull and bear markets. Just to point out though, there have been extremes in this valuation metric during this time as price-to-peak got up to 34x during dotcom and low teens in the early 1990's...

      However, I should have been more clear in stating that I was referencing only data since we began publishing our newsletters, which just happened to be the beginning of the extended bullish run. I was not trying to select a period that would distort the facts. I think it is relevant that price-to-peak has fallen so far, so fast. Almost certainly more relevant than comparing the current recession to the depression of the 30's.

      Anyway, thanks for your comments because after all, that is what forum's like seekingalpha are for...comparing and discussing differing view points.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 11:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sentiment and Valuation: Little Not to Like in This Market
      Roger Knights: You are absolutely correct and I have changed it in our blog at blog.ockhamresearch.co... but I cannot do much about where it has been republished around the web. I apologize for any confusion. Thanks for catching that slip.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 17:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      OM Group: Worth the Wait for Patient Investors
      jimmy46,

      Beta

      What does it Mean? A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

      Also known as "beta coefficient".

      Investopedia Says... Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.

      Many utilities stocks have a beta of less than 1. Conversely, most high-tech Nasdaq-based stocks have a beta of greater than 1, offering the possibility of a higher rate of return, but also posing more risk.

      www.investopedia.com/t...
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 11:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft: Still Master of the Operating System Domain
      AppleFinland--Please provide a link for your supposed information where Mac is out selling PC's 4 to 1. So percentage-wise you claim that Apple is selling nearly 80% of the computers sold? That has never been the case, ever. Perhaps you are referring to sales growth?

      From the 8/21 WSJ article titled, "Microsoft Enlists Jerry Seinfeld In Its Ad Battle Against Apple"--"App... Macintosh computer business is dwarfed by Microsoft's share of the PC software market, but it has been gaining on its larger rival, accounting for 7.8% of new PC shipments in the U.S. in the second quarter, compared with 6.2% during the same period the prior year, according to research firm IDC. The vast majority of the rest of the market is made up of Windows PCs."
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 09:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Starbucks Wakes Up, Smells the Coffee
      That chart comes from our actual SBUX research report at the time of this article.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kimberly-Clark: Absorbing New Markets
      I like your analysis, and I agree KMB is a well run company with little downside risk. I am long on KMB for the long term.

      One question: With a stronger U.S. dollar you refer to as a help for input prices, does that impede on the potential for growth overseas as KMB's products cost more abroad? Just food for thought because I think the company is on the right track no matter what the dollar does.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 1st 14:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Helicopter Ben to the Rescue
      what, what, what??? We are talking about financial markets right?

      It started as a useful analogy and went somewhere else.
      View article »
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